Ex-ante Impact Assessment of Green Super Rice (GSR) varieties in Southeast and South Asia

Huaiyu Wang, Sushil Pandey and Orlee Velarde

The Green Super Rice (GSR) cultivars under development are expected to have higher yield potential and higher input use efficiency than the current varieties. These characteristics are likely to make these cultivars environment-friendly. In addition, GSR cultivars are expected to have good resistance or tolerance to major abiotic and biotic stresses of rice and thus have more stable yield. An initial assessment of the potential impact of GSR varieties has been conducted using farmlevel survey data and under various assumptions on potential yield gain and adoption rate.
High yield Good grain quality High market price Resistant to lodging Resistant to pest and diseases Others (such as stress tolerant) 0 20 40 60 Percentage of responses S Asia SE Asia

Objectives
To assess the potential impact of GSR cultivars on poverty reduction generate socio-economic information needed to underpin technology targeting, technology To dissemination, and policy reforms for increasing overall impact

Aside from yield, taste and grain quality as well as market value were also considered
Table 3. Chemical inputs used in rice production

Fig. 1. Variety traits desired by farmers

Sampling design and methodology

Table 1. Sample size, selected site and farm characteristics Sample Key size Stresses3 Farm size (ha/hh) Rice yield (t/ha) % of rice income in total household income

Region

Sites

NPK input (kg ha-1) Southeast Asia Cambodia 56 152 21 142

Cost of Pesticide pesticide to cost -1 total cash cost (%) ($ ha ) 3 35 1 43 3% 13% 1% 30%

Southeast Asia Battambang, Pursat, Cambodia Kampong Thom, Kampot, Prey Veng, Takeo Indonesia1 Lao PDR Vietnam1 South Asia Kurigram, Habibganj, Bangladesh Satkhira, Rajshahi
2 1

607 154 200 98

D/Sub/Sal Sub Sub Sub

1.8 0.8 2.1 2.7

2.8 4.1 2.2 4.1

48% 40% 35% 74%

Indonesia* Lao PDR* Vietnam South Asia

Indramayu, Kayu Agung Champasack, Khammouan Hau Giang, Long An

Bangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka*

117 151 150

19 22 48

5% 10% 45%

*Based on the main wet season data

500 404 210

D/Sub/Sal D/Sub/Sal D/Sub/Sal

0.8 1.2 5.5

3.9 2.6 3.6

23%

Ex-ante impact assessment

13% 16%

Sri Lanka Pakistan

1 2

Kurunegala, Kalutara, Puttalam Sindh, Panjab

ex-ante impact assessment used two impact indicators: number of poor rice farmers who The can be lifted above the poverty line and additional number of people who can meet their food requirement from additional production. The anticipated benefit at the farm level was estimated based on household-level data and was extrapolated to country level using secondary data. two scenarios used pertain to a short term of 3-5 years and a medium term of 6-10 years. The The adoption rates for the short and medium terms were assumed to be 10% and 20% area of the potential domain, respectively, with the yield increase per unit area assumed conservatively at 10%.

Household survey data collected under the IRRI Submergence Project Household survey data collected under the IRRI STRASA Project Phase 1 3 Stresses refer to drought (D); submergence (Sub); salinity (Sal)

More than 2,100 farm households were interviewed in the survey. Villages were selected on the basis of major stresses submergence, drought ,and salinity. In each village, at least 30 households were interviewed randomly. data collected pertain to different seasons from 2008 to 2010. The

Varietal adoption
Adoption of improved varieties was generally high but adoption in stressed environments was characterized by patchiness. field hydrological condition was a key factor in The determining the extent of adoption. One or two major varieties accounted for a large area (or mega varieties). Adopted varieties were generally older, with limited adoption of newly released varieties in the main wet season. Average yields were low, in spite of a high rate Adoption of varieties across land types incidence of adoption of improved varieties.
Table 2. Major varieties grown in GSR countries Southeast Asia Cambodia Variety name 504 IR 66 Riang Chey Area (%) 21 13 13 Yield (t ha-1) 4.1 2.7 2.1 South Asia Pakistan Variety name IR 6 IR 9 Pukhraj Super Basmati Indonesia Ciherang IR 64 IR 77 76 13 5 4.0 4.4 5.2 Sri Lanka BG300 BG352 BG358 Lao PDR TDK1 RD6 RD10 28 16 5 2.8 1.9 2.8 Bangladesh BRRI dhan -28 BR-11 BRRI dhan -29 Guti Swarna 21 18 15 14 4.8 2.8 4.7 3.5 62 13 7 2.6 3.1 2.4 Area (%) 56 12 11 10 Yield (t ha-1) 3.5 3.7 4.9 1.9

Short term (3-5 years)

Medium term (6-10 years)

Fig. 2. Number of poor rice farmers who can be lifted out of poverty (left) and additional number of people who can meet the food requirement (right)

Implications
Germplasm development strategy farmers (millers and consumers) consider grain quality as essential (not just the yield), it is As important to ensure that new germplasm (including hybrid rice) have the desired quality traits. Given the dominance of mega varieties, which are locally adopted and have desired grain quality, a strategy to develop farmer-acceptable higher yielding varieties rapidly is to incorporate the new traits from GSR materials into the mega parent varieties. This approach can be effective in generating farm-level impacts rapidly. Targeting terms of potential impact on rural poverty, it would be desirable to consider environments with In abiotic stress as the primary target of GSR varieties, given the high incidence of poverty in such environments and the currently low average yield. Farm-level impact of adoption of GSR varieties in terms of incremental income is higher in farmer categories (or locations) in which rice accounts for a larger share of total household income. Hence, it is desirable to have a dissemination strategy (at least at the initial stages) that is targeted to such farmers/locations. poor rainfed areas, limited access to quality seed of improved varieties remains a problem In due to a number of institutional constraints. Increased investments in extension and the active participation of local agencies and NGOs are needed to accelerate the process of technology diffusion.

Vietnam

VND 95-20 OM 576

72 21

4.0 4.2