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Jyothy Laboratories
Ready for takeoff
JLL Standalone 4QFY2012 highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Operating profit OPM (%) Adj. PAT 4QFY12 219 36 16.6 28 3QFY12 167 28 17 29 % chg. (qoq) 31.4 28.9 (32)bp (4) 4QFY11 159 17 10.5 22 % chg. (yoy) 37.5 118 614bp 25.7
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
`214 `268
12 Months
Jyothy Laboratories Ltd.s (JLL) standalone results came in better than our expectations during 4QFY2012. On the revenue front, it reported 37.5% yoy growth to `219cr, with operating profit margin improving by 614bp yoy to 16.6%. Raw-material cost as a percentage of net sales increased sharply during the quarter; however, lower employee cost offset the same and helped the margin to sustain its level. Profit for the quarter grew by 25.7% yoy to `28cr. We maintain our Buy recommendation on JLL.
FMCG 1,725 0.4 252 / 125 22,894 1 16,417 4,986 JYOI.BO SRTY IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 65.2 17.5 12.8 4.6
SOTP valuation
Method JLL (Standalone) Henkel (Consol.) JFSL
P/E P/E EV
Remarks
20x FY2014E earnings 28x FY2014E earning, (for 83.7% stake) Discounted at 50%, for 75% stake
`/share
218 31 19
Total
Source: Company, Angel Research
268
Tejashwini Kumari
022-39357800 Ext: 6856 tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6 20.1 24.4 18.7 12.1 Source: Company, Angel Research, *FY2012E includes Henkel numbers post August 22, 2011
4QFY12 219 132 60.5 15 7.1 35 15.8 182 36 16.6 13 3 15 35 15.9 7 19.8 28 28 12.8 8.1 3.5
3QFY12 167 87 52.1 22 13.3 29 17.6 138 28 17.0 2 6 14 34 20.4 5 14.5 29 29 17.5 8.1 3.6
% chg. (qoq) 31.4 52.6 (30.2) 17.6 31.9 28.9 (32)bp 484.4 (44.9) 6.5 2.3 39.4 (4.0) (4.0)
4QFY11 159 84 52.6 19 12.1 39 24.8 142 17 10.5 0 2 9 24 14.8 1 5.8 22 22 14.0 8.1
% chg. (yoy) 37.5 58.1 (19.4) (12.4) 28.1 118.0 614bp 8,822.4 69.6 68.5 47.8 407.3 25.7 25.7
FY2012
663 373 56.2 78 11.8 130 19.6 580 83 12.5 19 17 57 103 15.6 20 19.1 84 84 12.6 8.06
FY2011 600 311 51.9 75 12.5 134 22.4 521 79 13.2 0 11 28 96 15.9 15 16.0 80 4 77 12.8 8.1 9.5
% chg 10.5 19.6 4.3 (3.5) 11.5 4 (73)bp 4,639.0 57.8 106.6 8.0 28.7 4.1 9.0
(4.0)
2.8
25.7
10.4
9.0
(`cr)
20 0 (20) (40)
(`cr)
100 50 0
(%)
10 0
10 5 0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
Revenue (LHS)
EBITDA (LHS)
(`cr)
60 40 20 0
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
4QFY12
(%)
20
15
Henkels performance
Henkel Indias (HIL) revenue recovered post the strike in Karaikal plant, which had adversely affected the companys revenue in 3QFY2012. It reported a healthy 30.8% qoq growth in net sales at `101cr and operating margin of 4.4%, an improvement of 130bp on qoq basis. However, the operating margin was lower than our estimate on account of the increased raw-material prices and high employee cost for the quarter. Also, despite the decent growth in revenue as well as expansion in operating margin, the bottomline for the company was is still in negative zone with a loss of `8cr, due to high interest outgo.
JLL is all set to launch the new commercials of Margo and Pril, which is expected to revamp and reposition its brands and help in driving its sales volumes, and commercials for Fa and Henko are underway.
Investment arguments
Synergies of JLL-HIL major driver for the business
With the strategic acquisition of HIL, JLL (consolidated) is expected to witness a robust performance growth in the long term. The acquisition of HIL has provided JLL - 1) a combined basket of 10 brands, three of its own (Ujala, Maxo and Exo) and seven brands of HIL (Henko, Pril, Fa, Margo, Mr. White, Neem and Chek), 2) a strong entry in the urban market as HILs ratio of rural and urban presence is 30:70, which is 75:25 for JLL; and 3) strong combined distribution network complementing both the companies, and facilitating them to enjoy a pan-India presence at a low cost. With the HILs turnaround plan in place, we expect the synergies to start showing results in coming years.
Financials
JLL (Standalone) Healthy growth going ahead
Realization and volume growth to drive the companys revenue
JLL (Standalone) reported a 10.5% increase in its net sales for FY2012 to `663cr. Management has guided for 20-25% sales growth; however, we have incorporated a revenue CAGR of 16.6% over FY2012-14E, from `663cr in FY2012 to `901cr in FY2014E. Major drivers for the same will be the increase in realization and expected volume growth.
Assuming that rural GDP grows at 14.7% and 15.6% yoy in 2013E and 2014E, respectively, we expect the JLLs total sales to post a CAGR of 16.6% over FY201214E, as most of the companys sales come from rural areas. We expect CAGR for homecare segment to be 15.0% (to `257cr) while that for soaps and detergent segment to be 17.2% (to `521cr) over FY2012-14E. Volumes of the manufactured products are estimated to post a CAGR of 12.7% and 11.6% in the home care and soaps and detergent segments, respectively, over FY2012-14E.
(`cr)
CAGR*
15.2 16.5 15.0 17.2
60 40 20 0
(`cr)
(%)
(%)
(`)
80
10
FY2012*
527 (1.2) (41) 25.2 2.9 (3.5) (7.0) (1.6) 24.3 0.0 1.3 46.4
FY2013
510 (3.3) (24) 40.1 6.1 (2.1) (11.7) (1.4) 13.0 0.1 1.4 23.6
FY2014E
638 25.0 11 143.1 10.9 0.9 27.2 (1.5) 5.4 0.2 1.1 10.4
Henkel (Consolidated) Mcap (in ` cr) Net worth (2014E) (` cr) PAT (2014E) (` cr) Current PE (x) Target PE (x) Expected value (in ` cr) (for 83.7% stake) Outstanding shares (cr) Expected price/ share (`) (B)
287 (191) 11 27.2 28.0 247 8.1 31
JSFL Total EV (in ` cr) (including debt of `60cr) EV (Discounting at 50%) (in `cr) Value for JLL's 75% stake in JFSL (in `cr) Outstanding shares (in cr) Expected price/ share (`) (C)
400 200 150 8.1 19
268
10
10x
14x
18x
Mcap (` cr)
1,725 1,725 1,725 1,725 7,662 7,662 11,478 11,478 18,266 18,266
Sales (` cr)
778 901 1315 1568 1741 2051 4667 5427 5878 6799
OPM (%)
12.3 13.1 6.6 9.3 18.1 17.9 12.8 12.9 16.8 17.0
PAT (` cr)
80 88 51 88 310 367 409 500 722 856
EPS (`)
9.9 10.9 6.4 10.9 20.5 24.3 6.6 8.1 4.1 4.9
RoE (%)
11.1 11.0 8.4 13.9 35.7 36.2 30.0 28.8 39.3 42.0
P/E (x)
21.6 19.6 33.6 19.7 24.7 20.9 26.8 21.9 25.3 21.3
P/BV (x)
2.2 2.1 2.8 2.7 7.9 6.3 7.2 5.6 9.2 7.5
EV/Sales (x)
2.2 1.8 1.6 1.3 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.1 3.1 2.7
Risk factors
Business integration and delay in Henkels breakeven
Going forward, the major concern for JLL is the risk associated with the integration of HIL. JLL is almost done with Henkel turnaround steps; however, synergizing the distribution network of JLL and HIL is underway. If things go haywire, JLLs growth could face a serious risk. Furthermore, any delay in the breakeven (expected by FY2014E) can be a negative for the company and may pose downside risk to our estimate.
Raw-material cost
The companys operating margin saw pressure in FY2012 due the rise in raw material price led by higher crude price and rupee depreciation. HDPE, which constitutes the largest raw-material expenditure, is a derivative of crude oil and is exposed to great price fluctuation. Any further rise in rupee depreciation and crude oil price may pose risk to the companys business.
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
FY2011 81 13 (61) (15) (23) (5) (34) (61) (148) (243) 0.8 57 (47) 396 407 158 122 281
FY2012# 58 25 196 (20) (23) 236 (800) 7 (5) (799) 368 (23) 345 (218) 281 63
FY2014E 133 27 (22) (44) (36) 58 (15) 0 12 (3) (30) (23) (53) 2 17 19
18
Note: *FY2009 was only for 9 months, #FY2012E includes Henkel numbers post August 22, 2011
19
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Jyothy Laboratories No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
20