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Background Brief: South China Sea: Conflict at Scarborough Shoal Unlikely Carlyle A. Thayer June 1, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. I'd also like to refer to the disputes between China and Philippines at Scarborough Shoal. Could it go to war? How can you predict the future of this case, also the aid/interference of US? Answer: The standoff at Scarborough Shoal was not planned by either side but resulted from a miscalculation by both sides who failed to think through their actions. The Philippines tried to arrest Chinese fishermen, Chinese ships intervened and the standoff which began on April 10th persists until today and look set to continue. Both sides are trapped by their rhetoric over defending national sovereignty. There is little space for compromise. China has complicated the matter by deploying additional civilian surveillance ships and allowing Chinese fishermen to return to the shoal. There are 5 civilian ships and at least ten fishing boats at the shoal. The Philippines claims that over 80 dinghies and utility craft have been launched from the ships. Some are armed with personal weapons. There are some grounds for optimism: after the Philippines quickly its navy frigate from the area neither side has used military warships. Both sides repeatedly claims they will not use force and will seek a negotiated settlement. The Philippines has moved to appoint an ambassador to fill the vacant post which should help diplomatic efforts. It is highly unlikely that either side, especially China, would choose to "go to war." The defence ministers from China and the Philippines met in Phnom Penh on the sidelines of the meeting between the defence ministers of ASEAN states and China. They agreed on three points: to exercise restraint, to tone down their rhetoric and to keep open lines of communication. While this is a welcome development, it should be pointed out that the People's Liberation Army is not directly involved in the standoff at Scarborough Shoal and is unlikely to control the behaviour of the Fishery Law Enforcement Command and China Marine Surveillance ships. The U.S. is unlikely to become directly involved unless China attacks Philippine ships. The U.S. is counseling restraint. The US Defense Secretary will visit China shortly and the two sides are likely to sound each other out on this issue. The Chinese navy is not in a position to challenge the US Navy. China has no capacity to defend itself from a

2 US nuclear attack submarine like the one that recently visited Subic Bay in the Philippines. Q2. You seem to be not optimistic about Shangri-La dialogue? What Vietnam can do and should do after this dialogue? ANSWER: The Shangri-La Dialogue is just that, a dialogue. It takes no decisions and it issues no statements. China's defence minister will not be present so there will be no direct face-to-face talks with the Philippines defense minister. There is a special session devoted to the South China Sea and this will provide an opportunity for the Philippines to put it case to the international community. The Chinese representative represents the National Institute of South China Sea Studies located in Hainan. His presentation will be studied carefully to see if there are any signs that China is moderating its position. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Conflict at Scarborough Shoal Unlikely, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 1, 2012.