TEST OF THE SIGNIFICANCE

Test of the significance examine the validity of inference drawn from an observation . in statistical oanalysis significance tests have been made to see wheather there is any reasonable difference between the sample proportion and population proportion or not. To carry ot a significance test, the first step would be to formulate a hypothesis and subsequently appropriate test is performed to examine the validity of the hypothesis. Once sample data has been gathered through an observational study or experiment, statistical inference allows analysts to assess evidence in favor or some claim about the population from which the sample has been drawn. The methods of inference used to support or reject claims based on sample data are known as tests of significance. Every test of significance begins with a null hypothesis H0. H0 represents a theory that has been put forward, either because it is believed to be true or because it is to be used as a basis for argument, but has not been proved. For example, in a clinical trial of a new drug, the null hypothesis might be that the new drug is no better, on average, than the current drug. We would write H0: there is no difference between the two drugs on average. The alternative hypothesis, Ha, is a statement of what a statistical hypothesis test is set up to establish. For example, in a clinical trial of a new drug, the alternative hypothesis might be that the new drug has a different effect, on average, compared to that of the current drug. We would write Ha: the two drugs have different effects, on average. The alternative hypothesis might also be that the new drug is better, on average, than the current drug. In this case we would write Ha: the new drug is better than the current drug, on average. The final conclusion once the test has been carried out is always given in terms of the null hypothesis. We either "reject H0 in favor of Ha" or "do not reject H0"; we never conclude "reject Ha", or even "accept Ha". If we conclude "do not reject H0", this does not necessarily mean that the null hypothesis is true, it only suggests that there is not sufficient evidence against H0 in favor of Ha; rejecting the null hypothesis then, suggests that the alternative hypothesis may be true.

Statistical errors:While testing a hypothesis two types of errors may be committed as hypothesis testing cannot be fool proof of the validity of the given statement( hypothesis). Thus hypothesis may be rejected when it happens to be true. This is referred to as TYPE-I error OR error. Alternatively the hypothesis (H0 ) is accepted when it should have been rejected. This way a TYPE-II error () is made. This may be described by the following table:-

Decision (based on sample)

Reject Null Hypothesis Fail to Correct reject Null Decision Hypothesis

Truth (for population studied) Null Null Hypothesis Hypothesis True False Type I Correct Error Decision Type II Error

It is always serious to accept a false hypothesis ( type II error) than to reject a correct one ( type-I). hence probability of committing type I error is kept at a certain level, whereas the probability of type- Ii error is allowed to vary. The probability of committing type-I error is called the level of significance and the null hypothesis is to be accepted or rejected at this level. ONE TAILED AND TWO TAILED TESTS :The two-tailed test is a statistical test used in inference, in which a given statistical hypothesis, H0 (the null hypothesis), will be rejected when the value of the test statistic is either sufficiently small or sufficiently large. This contrasts with a onetailed test, in which only one of the rejection regions "sufficiently small" or "sufficiently large" is preselected according to the alternative hypothesis being

selected, and the hypothesis is rejected only if the test statistic satisfies that criterion. Alternative names are one-sided and two-sided tests.The test is named after the "tail" of data under the far left and far right of a bell-shaped normal data distribution, or bell curve. However, the terminology is extended to tests relating to distributions other than normal. In general a test is called two-tailed if the null hypothesis is rejected for values of the test statistic falling into either tail of its sampling distribution, and it is called one-sided or one-tailed if the null hypothesis is rejected only for values of the test statistic falling into one specified tail of its sampling distribution. In case of 95% confidence limits , probability (P) will be 2.5% ( 0.025at each end) which signifies that probability of the difference between sample and population values occurs at both ends or tails.

If the distribution from which the samples are derived is considered to be normal, Gaussian, or bell-shaped, then the test is referred to as a one- or two-tailed T test. If the test is performed using the actual population mean and variance, rather than an estimate from a sample, it would be called a one- or two-tailed Z test.

FISHERS Z-test:Z-test or normal deviate test is based on the normal probability distriubution and it is used for judging the significance of several statistical measures , particularly the mean . the underlying assumption to carry out the Z test are (a) variables are normally distributed ; (b) samples are randomly taken and (c) the sample size is sufficiently large (>30). Accordingly , if x, is the mean of a randomly taken sample , is the population mean and is the standard error of x, then the probability distribution of Z will be in the form of-

Z=

F-test:To test the equality of variances of two normal populations F test is applied .In a situation when the hypothesis happens to be H0 : 1 = 2 against HA : 1 2 , it is necessary to assume the equality of the variances. F-statistics or F- distribution is defined as the study of relationship of the sample variances taken from same or different population. The object of F-test is to examine the null hypothesis which states that the given samples are drawn from same population or from two separate populations N1 (1, 1) and N2 (2, 2) of equal variances. Pre-condition for F-testA. samples have to be drawn randomly from normal population (s); B. the observations must be independent and C. there should not be any measurement error. The given statement ( hypothesis ) is now tested by simply taking the ration of variances of the two samples. Thus F= F=-----------Where, Stands for variance of n1 sample and

Stands for variance of n2 sample. t-test t-test is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a Student's t distribution if the null hypothesis is supported. It is most commonly applied when the test statistic would follow a normal distribution if the value of a scaling term in the test statistic were known. When the scaling term is unknown and is replaced by an estimate based on the data, the test statistic (under certain conditions) follows a Student's t distribution.

For instance , in the case of large sample , the distribution of sample mean ( ) is approximately normal with population mean () and standard deviation ( ). But , in small samples this assumption of approximate normality of the distribution of is not true. So another distribution is to be used uinstead of Z test . accordingly , the statistics for small sample is written as :t= Unpaired The unpaired, or "independent samples" t-test is used when two separate sets of independent and identically distributed samples are obtained, one from each of the two populations being compared. For example, suppose we are evaluating the effect of a medical treatment, and we enroll 100 subjects into our study, then randomize 50 subjects to the treatment group and 50 subjects to the control group. In this case, we have two independent samples and would use the unpaired form of the t-test. The randomization is not essential hereif we contacted 100 people by phone and obtained each person's age and gender, and then used a two-sample ttest to see whether the mean ages differ by gender, this would also be an independent samples t-test, even though the data are observational.

The following formula is applied for unpaired t- testt=-------------------------------------------------

the calculated value of t is now compared with the corresponding table value at (n1 +n2-2) degrees of freedom to find the level of significance .

Paired Dependent samples (or "paired") t-tests typically consist of a sample of matched pairs of similar units, or one group of units that has been tested twice (a "repeated measures" t-test). A typical example of the repeated measures t-test would be where subjects are tested prior to a treatment, say for high blood pressure, and the same subjects are tested again after treatment with a blood-pressure lowering medication. A dependent t-test based on a "matched-pairs sample" results from an unpaired sample that is subsequently used to form a paired sample, by using additional variables that were measured along with the variable of interest. The matching is carried out by identifying pairs of values consisting of one observation from each of the two samples, where the pair is similar in terms of other measured variables. This approach is often used in observational studies to reduce or eliminate the effects of confounding factors. Explicit expressions that can be used to carry out various t-tests are given below. In each case, the formula for a test statistic that either exactly follows or closely approximates a t-distribution under the null hypothesis is given. Also, the appropriate degrees of freedom are given in each case. Each of these statistics can be used to carry out either a one-tailed test or a two-tailed test. To apply the paired t- test other differences (d) of each set of paired observation has to be worked out and then the mean of this difference is to be calculated (d). this is followed by standard deviation of differences and also the standard error of mean ( . Now , t is determined by substituting the aforesaid values in the formula-

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