East-Timor Rail Master Plan

EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN
PRESENTED BY
LAFAEK BESI LDA.

DEVELOPMENT COMPANY Dili, Timor-Leste
besugao@yahoo.com
LEAD SUMMARY
ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1 /22

124 125 126 127
I N D O N E S I A
10
Wetar Island
10
TIMORLESTE
Romang Island Atauro Island

Berau Biquele Atauro
Alor Island Rantar Island
t a r W e
a i t S t r
Laivai Lautm Manal Com Fuiloro
Cape Tei
Tutuala
Cape Cutch
Maubara Bazartete Cape Corimbala LIQUIA Railaco
Liquia
DILI
La
Seica l
DILI
Metinaro Lacl
Manatuto
Laleia
Bucli Vermasse Venilale
Baucau
Laga Luro Baquia Uato Carabau
Los Palos
Jaco Island
BAUCAU
Quelicai
LAUTEM
Lor Cape de Lor
Savu
9
Sea
Batugade
Fatu Beso Atabae
Ermera
Letetoho
AILEU
Aileu
clo
MANATUTO
Lacluta Barique
Laclubar
ERMERA
BOBONARO
Maliana
Tata Mai Lau (2963 m)

Bobonaro
Hato Builico
Sahe n
Turiscai Maubisse
VIQUEQUE
Ossu Uatolari Aliambata
Iliomar
Viqueque
Oecussi
Sacato
Kitrana
Ntibe
OECUSSI
O Silo
Passabe
To Naikliu
l a
Fatolulic
Ainaro
Mape
MANUFAHI
Same
Alas
Fato Berliu Cie r Umaboco
B Aco Cape Deilubn
AINARO
Hatudo
Loloto
COVA LIMA
Fohorem Tilomar
Betano Cape Caltec
Suai
Cape Tafara
127
Timor
Sea
I N D O N E S I A
0 10 20 30 Kilometers
TIMOR-LESTE
SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS DISTRICT CAPITALS NATIONAL CAPITAL RIVERS
8
10
20
30 Miles
MAIN ROADS
JANUARY 2005
To Kuala Lumpur
IBRD 33496
124
125
This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
DISTRICT BOUNDARIES INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES

126
LEAD SUMMARY
1. CAPTION 2. RATIONALE 3. NETWORK 4. TOURISM 5. ECONOMIC FRAME 6. DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME 7. COMPONENTS 8. FINANCE 9. COST ESTIMATES 10. SISTER PROJECTS
LEAD SUMMARY
CAPTION A ONE-TRACK RAIL BACKBONE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF EASTTIMOR, ELECTRICITY POWERED, TO HANDLE PASSENGER AND CARGO TRAFFIC, AT MEDIUM SPEED.
THEME Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country no later than 2030 ... The economy will be modern and well diversified ... Timor-Lestes tradition as a rural economy will have changed markedly ... Well over half of the population will live in urban areas, where the service economy flourishes
LEAD SUMMARY
EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN RATIONALE

IT BEFALLS THE MAUBERE GOVERNMENTS THE DAUNTING TASK OF PROVIDING BETTER THAN FREEDOM FROM WANT LIVING CONDITIONS TO A YOUNG POPULATION THAT WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS, TO BRING ABOUT AN AMIABLE AND INTELLIGENT POLIS. TO MAKE IT TO 2030 ONE NEEDS TO 1. FATHER ONE MILLION MORE PEOPLE 2. BUILD FROM SCRATCH ENTIRE BRAND NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS 3. PUT IN PLACE MASSIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE
AS FOR THE INVESTMENT, WE BEG TO OFFER A FRESH LINE OF THINKING:
RAIL INDUCED DEVELOPMENT

LEAD SUMMARY
THE OTHER ONE MILLION TIMORESE TO COME, BORN TO A DIFFERENT TIME AND PACE, SHALL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED TOWNSHIP DWELLERS OR LIVE IN ISOLATED RURAL SUCOS FED BY TRADITIONAL SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE. IN 2030, A FEW WILL BE FARMERS RATHER THAN PEASANTS, MANY MORE WILL WORK IN INDUSTRY AND SERVICES, LIVING IN HOUSING SPRAWLS SPREAD AROUND CITY CENTERS KNITTED TOGETHER BY THE CENTRAL TRUNK RAILROAD. INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS THAT ARE LABOUR INTENSIVE ATRACT PEOPLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AREAS WHERE OTHER JOBS WILL SOON BE ON OFFER FOR THEM AND THEIR BETTER EDUCATED CHILDREN. INVESTMENT MONIES TRICKLE DOWN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE DEMAND, SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT, MOVING PEOPLE AND IDEAS TO A GENTLER URBAN WAY OF LIFE.
WE HAVE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF THIS VISION TODAY.
LEAD SUMMARY

Roads play a vital role in the economy and country integration of Timor-Leste. Roads are the primary mode of transport, carrying about 90% of passengers, and 70% of freight. BUT (ADB Project nr. 45094-01)
Recent surveys indicate that almost the entire core road network is in an unmaintainable condition. Only about 8% of the core road network was assessed to be in fair condition, about 22% in poor condition, and about 70% in very poor condition. THEN, RAIL ... 1. Rail is more efficient as it reduces fuel consumption, is less environmentally polluting, and shortens travel time as well as being safer. 2. Transporting cargo by rail is 6 times more efficient compared to road (i.e. rail trains consume 80% less fuel than trucks) and for passenger, rail is 20 times more efficient. 3. Motive energy tapped from the national grid (powered by natural gas and hydro sites), which is much cleaner than diesel or petrol used in cars and trucks.
LEAD SUMMARY

...
4. The network allows for development to be more dispersed as people working in cities can live outside. Better rail services will benefit lower income groups and rural communities. 5. A cost-benefit study conducted by an international consultant, for the Electrified Double Track Project (EDTP) from Ipoh to Padang Besar, in Malaysia, estimated the EDTP would yield an Economic Internal rate of Return (EIRR) of 15%, above the benchmark 12% for transport projects. 6. This EIRR assessment measures the economic benefits over the economic costs of the project at the National level, focusing on the long-term viability. 7. Spin-offs to local services and industries will have multiplier effects that will greatly stimulate the economy (medium term GDP growth). 8. While the capital cost of electrifying track is high, electric trains locomotives are capable of higher performance and lower operational costs steam or diesel power. Electric locomotives, because they tend to be technically complex than diesel-electric locomotives, are both easier cheaper to maintain and have extremely long working lives. and than less and
LEAD SUMMARY

NETWORK
CENTRAL LINE: BOBONARO - LOS PALOS WEST LINE: CORRIDOR DILI-BETANO EAST LINE: CORRIDOR BAUCAU - UATOLARI
to move people, crops, raw materials, parts and products in cheaper, faster and safer conditions to airlift cargo (land produce and industrial products) from Baucau to the world
LEAD SUMMARY
TOURISM
Lavish GSHOW*****1 train carriages negociate Timor scenic landscape to unfurl staggering mountain expanses and wide tropical ocean views to world class travelers.
On the way, a handful of boutique hotels sitting in unspoiled hideouts and historic cantonments are ideal stopovers.
Grand Sauros Hotel on Wheels
LEAD SUMMARY

Images of the World: East Timor - West of Dili to the Indonesian border: Maubara fort 4/29/12 3:55 PM
Send this Photo as a Postcard:
Photo by Ludo Kuipers, Sun Dec 26, 2004
Maubara
http://worldpics.com.au/East_Timor/west/slides/2004122604.html Page 2 of 8
LEAD SUMMARY

ECONOMIC FRAME Since oil production began in early 2000, Timor-Leste has built a sizable petroleum fund that reached 886 percent of non-oil GDP in 2011 (IMF, 2012). The Petroleum Fund balance is expected to be $6.62 billion by end of 2010, which is up from $5.38 billion by end of 2009. The Petroleum Fund balance is estimated at $8.17 billion by the end of 2011, $9.82 billion by the end of 2012 and $14.60 billion by end of 2015.
Generating vigorous growth in the non-oil economy will require higher productivity in agriculture, the wider provision of growth-enhancing infrastructure (roads, electricity, telecommunications), a major improvement in the private sector enabling environment, and a quantum increase in the countrys skills base.
Capital expenditure remained low before 2011, but the government recently launched a strategic development plan that includes large infrastructure spending to be partially financed by withdrawals from the petroleum fund.
LEAD SUMMARY
...
Since continued spending above ESI will erode the real value of the nations petroleum wealth, clear economic criteria for exceeding ESI should be developed (e.g., limiting such expenditures to investments that promise high economic rates of return). It would also be useful to examine the case for public borrowing, as this offers an alternative to drawing on the Petroleum Fund (provided that debt is on concessional terms, that appropriate management capacity is installed and that the cost of borrowing is less than the income foregone from Petroleum Fund assets) and expands domestic capacity through contracting out. It will also be important to crowd in private sector investment, thereby avoiding the inflation of factor prices.
The projections for 2012/2013/2017 show Timor-Leste as being the only Developing Asian country to have consistent double digit GDP growth (World Economic Outlook, April 2012).
LEAD SUMMARY
Chenab Bridge Project (KRP)
LEAD SUMMARY

DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME Demographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timorese population should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by fourfifths by 2025, and triple by 2050. (These results are similar to those in earlier projections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growth scenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annual population growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between 2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesia's current population density by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent still younger than 15 by 2025. Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. The urban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster than the rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4 percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its present size. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. The rural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025.
World Bank - Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste (Oct.9, 2008)
LEAD SUMMARY

PROJECT COMPONENTS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. RAILS (CLDB) EMBANKMENTS (CLDB) BRIDGES (CLDB) TUNNELS (CLDB) STATIONS (CLDB) FIELD LINES (CLDB) ROLLING STOCK (PRIVATE) NATIONAL GRID (GOVT.) POWER STATIONS (GOVT.) ACCESS ROADS (GOVT.)
LEAD SUMMARY

FINANCE
COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) SHARES Notional one dollar share capital 100% owned by the 13 districts. Voting rights and profit entitlements apportioned pro-rata of the last population census. COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) BONDS CLDB to issue perpetual callable state guaranteed bonds, placed by the Central Bank with the Petroleum Fund and other Timor based institutional investors. Interest payments indexed to the rail network access fees charged to rolling stock owner companies. LEASEHOLD RIGHTS All land occupied by the network and main (downtown) city centers close to it is held on 99 year leases from the State. Proceeds from the sale of such lease rights are used to fund the project (buy CLDB bonds).
LEAD SUMMARY

COST ESTIMATES
500 km x US$10 mio = US$5 bn
Here are some sample new railway project costs as published in the railway trade press. The prices published by operators usually include all civil and equipment costs, project and financing costs.
Complete Rail Projects Railway> Madrid - Albacete Yichang-Wanzhou, China Haikou-Sanya, China Date 2010 Type of System High Speed line Cost per km 9.57 million $9.1 million $10.0 million Distance 304 kms 377 kms 308 kms
2011 Main line 2010 High Speed line
LEAD SUMMARY

YichangWanzhou Railway, an important railway linking Central China and West China, will be opened to traffic on November 20, 2010. When it opens, it will only take about 10 hours from Wuhan to Chongqing (compared with 18 hours before) by express trains, and about 21 hours from Chengdu to Shanghai (saving more than 10 hours than before). YichangWanzhou Railway stretches 377 kilometers (234 miles) from Yichang City, Hubei Province to Wanzhou District of Chongqing City, and joins Shanghai-Chengdu Railway, which passes Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, Wuhan, Yichang, Chongqing and Chengdu along the way. Because of the complex geologic conditions, YichangWanzhou Railway is regarded as the most difficult railway project in China. It cost 60 million yuan per kilometer, which is twice as much as that of QinghaiTibet Railway. The total length of tunnels and bridges is about 279 kilometers (173 miles), taking up 74% of the whole line, hence the railway is said to be the museum of tunnels and bridges.
www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latest
LEAD SUMMARY

SISTER PROJECTS INDIA is undertaking one of its most challenging railway projects ever by building a line to connect Kashmir with the Himalayan foothills. The Kashmir Railway Project (KRP) is A 345 km extension of the Indian Railway network, being developed to provide an alternative and reliable transportation system to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. At the moment Kashmir is connected to the rest of India only by road. Rails cross a total of over 750 bridges and pass through over 100 km of tunnels. The estimated cost of the project is RS302 bn (US$5.7 bn). MALAYSIA has undertaken the Electrification of Double Track Project (EDTP), which runs through four states in the northern peninsular region of Malaysia. The project involves the laying and electrification of a 329 km long double track near the existing single track that runs from Ipoh in Perak to Padang Besar in Perlis. The project is part of a master plan to improve the public transport system in Malaysia. Road transport constitutes 89% (as of April 2008) of the transportation system in Malaysia, causing congestion on the expressway. Estimated to cost RM16.5 bn (US$5.4 bn), the Ipoh-Padang Besar electrification is Malaysia's largest and costliest railway project.
LEAD SUMMARY
MATE, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE? FOLIN KARUN LIU KA BARATU? EXPENSIVE FOR A TRAIN, CHEAP FOR A COUNTRY!
LEAD SUMMARY
Uatolari
LEAD SUMMARY

East-Timor Rail Master Plan

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EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN

LAFAEK BESI LDA.

ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1 /22