Professional Documents
Culture Documents
January 2011
1
Downloaded by in-motilal01 from 124.247.215.155 at 2011-02-01 07:54:14 EST. ISI Emerging Markets.
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................3 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................4 OUTLOOK FOR THE SECTOR .............................................................................................7 INTER-FIRM COMPARISON..................................................................................................8 COMPANY ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................................10 1. Apollo Hospitals ...............................................................................................................10 2. IndraPrastha Hospitals ......................................................................................................10 3. Kovai Medicals..................................................................................................................11 4. Fortis Health Care.............................................................................................................11 SOURCES & METHODS FOR COMPANY PROJECTIONS...............................................12
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-motilal01 from 124.247.215.155 on 2011-02-01 07:54:14 EST. DownloadPDF.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
India is very well placed to tap the growing potential of the healthcare sector. It has the relevant skill-sets with adequate human resources to become the preferred healthcare player in emerging countries across the globe. The healthcare industry in India has come a long way from the days when those who could afford it had to travel abroad to get highly specialized services such as cardiac surgery, while others had to do without it. The patients from neighboring countries in Asia are coming to India to receive specialized medical treatment. Not only is India meeting international standards, but at prices that compare very favorably with developed countries. A vibrant and dynamic healthcare sector is imperative for the new human resource intensive world. Quality healthcare is vital for the growth of any nation. The key objectives of an effective healthcare system would be to enhance average life expectancy and to improve quality of life and productivity. The recent Union Budget too has been favorable to the healthcare sector. There has been reduction of customs tariffs on life saving medical equipment, reduction of excise on certain critical drugs and abolition of duty on drugs and materials imported for clinical trials. Permissible depreciation rates for medical equipment under the Income Tax Law have been increased to enhance cash flows of the corporate hospitals in the private sector. Lower interest on lending for private sector hospitals exceeding 100 beds will improve access to low cost funding for hospitals. The government has also come up with various insurance schemes, which could help the sector and this is aided by the formation of various institutes, which have given the country the best of the doctors. The growth in the sector would be driven by healthcare facilities, private and public sector, medical diagnostic and path labs and the medical insurance sector. As per the Cygnus estimates, the financial performance in the industry was estimated to be positive growth from 5% to 35% across the industry when compared the OND 09 Vs OND 10 in its net sales. Apollo hospitals was estimated to register Rs. 6491.75m 2011-02-01 07:54:14 EST. followed by ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-motilal01 from 124.247.215.155 on (35%) for OND 10 quarter DownloadPDF.kovai medicals with Rs. 368.89m (10%). Fortis health care was estimated to register its growth by 5%. Operational performance also in positive trend across the industry. Fortis healtha care was estimated to register highest OPM and NPM followed by Kovai medicals. Indraprastha Medicals was registred lowest OPM and NPM values During the period Oct 1st 2010 to Dec 31, 2010 the BSE sensex has moved from 20445.04 points to 20509.09 points (64.05 points increase with 0.31% growth). In the same period the Health care Index (BSE HC) has moved from 6107.59 points to 6734.19 points (626.6 points increase and 10.25% growth). The companies in the industry are also in positive trend in market. The market capitalization has been registered with Rs64321.057m during the same period. In the cost structure scenario, raw material cost has been reduced from OND 09 to OND 10 from 43.91% to Rs29.44% and other expenses are increased from 23.58-39.24% during the period. Staff cost has been registered as third major expenditure in the industry. At Kovai Medical raw material cost has been increased from 16.95-17.43%. Most of the corporate hospitals are acquiring international standards for patients treatment. In coming years the industry is receiving major share of business from the international patients since the treatment cost is very much less when compare with the developed countries.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Indian Healthcare Industry Healthcare industry varies greatly in terms of size, staffing patterns, and organizational structures. It is one of the major contributors to the Indian GDP which consists of the following segments: Hospitals, Nursing and residential care facilities, offices of physicians, offices of dentists, Home healthcare services, offices of other health practitioners, Ambulatory healthcare services. Industry Aggregate (Rs in million) Particulars OND10 (E) Net Sales 8554.00 Change 27% EBITDA 1173.16 Change 10% Depreciation 240.96 Other Income 240.61 Interest 137.21 PBT 1035.59 Tax 280.23 Effective Tax Rate 27.1% Reported PAT 755.36 Change 13.80% Industry Market cap (Rs ;bn) 120.67
Rs m
For the period ending OND10, the Indian health care industrys revenue is expected at Rs8554.00m with a robust growth of 27% as compared to the same period last year. The increase in revenue is primarily due to increase in occupancy and revenue per bed day and higher number of SAPs (Simplified Acute Physiology Score). With average household consumption expected to increase by more than 9% per annum, the annual Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research healthcare expenditure is projected to grow at 11% and also the number of insured is likely to jump from 200-220m. The industry is expected to continue with the same trend as there is no big impact of the 550 8.0 Net Profit and NPM global slowdown that had impacted the revenue of companies throughout the world. Net Profit (LHS) following companies- Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd, Indraprastha Medical Corpn. Ltd, Kovai Medical Centre & ISIEmergingMarketsPDF Fortis Health care. Hospital Ltd, and in-motilal01 from 124.247.215.155
NPM (RHS)
7000 Rs m
Growth (RHS)
6500
17
0.50
0.20
-0.10 Staff cost Raw material Depreciation Other expenditure Interest Traded Goods Tax
Healthcare spending in India accounts for over 5% of the country's GDP. Out of which, the public spending in percentage is around 1% of GDP. The presence of public healthcare is not only weak but also under-utilised and inefficient. Meanwhile, private sector is quite dominant in the healthcare sector. Around 80% of total spending on healthcare in India comes from the private sector. Inadequate public investment in health infrastructure has given an opportunity to private hospitals to capture a larger share of the market. In addition the demand for hospital services has been increasing due to the rise in lifestyle related diseases. Healthcare Management needs to create services that consumers need but cannot yet imagine. Table given below gives a comparison of important health indicators of India and the United States which clearly shows that good medical facility still remains beyond reach for most of the middle class. Indicators No. of physicians per 10,000 population No. of nursing and midwifery personnel per 10,000 population No. of dentistry personnel per 10,000 population Infant mortality rate (both sexes) per 1000 live births Total expenditure on Health as % of GDP No. of hospital beds per 10,000 people
Source: World Health Statistics, 2009
Against a world average of 4 beds per 1,000 people, India has just 0.7. Around 80% of total spending on healthcare in India comes from the private sector. In addition, the demand for hospital services has been increasing due to the rise in lifestyle related diseases. India has some of the best hospitals and treatment
Even if one includes the airfare costs of a patient plus a companion and five star accommodation costs in India, the cost of getting treated in India is still significantly lower. Hospitals such as Apollo, Escorts, Hinduja, Max Healthcare, Manipal Hospital and Fortis Heart Institute are already becoming premier destinations for foreign patients from Bangladesh, Mauritius, Egypt and other middle-eastern countries. Additionally, Indian hospitals are beginning to offer combined and complete packages that include medical treatment, health recuperation, relaxation, recreation and some amount of tourism within India. Hence, many foreign patients who are now coming to India for treatment are beginning to spend 2-3 weeks at various tourist destinations, after their medical treatment. Key areas of opportunity in Healthcare Health Insurance - A growing business: The Indian health insurance market has emerged as a new and lucrative growth avenue for both the existing players as well as the new entrants. The health insurance market represents one the 124.247.215.155 on 2011-02-01 non-life EST. DownloadPDF. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-motilal01 from fastest growing and second largest07:54:14 insurance segment in the country. The Indian health insurance market has posted record growth in the last two fiscals. The health insurance premium is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 25% for the period spanning from 2009-10 to 2013-14. Human resources and medical education: About 72% doctors are based in tier- cities even then, the private sector finds difficulty in bridging the deficit of manpower. As stated above, there is a shortage of 1.5 million skilled professionals including doctors and nurses and administrators. Governments have liberalised the utilisation of AYUSH practitioners through a GR into mainstream medical care provision specially in tier 2/3 cities, to bridge their gaps, however the much awaited entry of private players in medical education will bridge the gap further. With recent opening of numerous hospital management colleges, the gap to provide able administrators would surely be bridged and more such institutes will be seen flourishing in the times to come. Medical equipment: Contributing to almost 40% costs in a tertiary setup, the medical equipment though cutting edge at the time of purchase poses the threat of inevitable obsolescence within five to seven years of setup. This problem is compounded by the fact the most of such equipment is imported and very few local reputed manufacturers exist. This will lead to apportioning to higher treatment costs and will further lead to lesser competitive edges and low utilisation rates resulting in undesired operating margins. Government Initiative: The Government has increased allocation towards healthcare and Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY). Companies with strong presence in the domestic market are likely to be the gainers. The Government has increased the weighted deduction on R&D expenditure from 150-200%. It is likely to benefit all pharma companies that are involved in R&D activities. The cost of medical equipments has been reduced by curtailing their customs duty and countervailing duty and
Indian healthcare industry is growing at over 18% making it the fastest growing in the world and highest growing sectors in India by various Government and non-Government organisations. India's health care industry will reach staggering US$190 billion. Healthcare sector is set to change drastically in India in the near future. Many corporate organizations have unfolded their plans to build state-of-art thirty to fifty hospitals each including Super speciality hospitals in metros and second tier cities. Some of them have plans to expand in Middle East and South Asian Countries. The Indian Healthcare industry is undergoing a phenomenal expansion and India is now looked upon as the leading country in the promotion of medical tourism, with an annual growth rate estimated at 30%. It has grown from 15% in 2000 to 30% in last five years. The government has taken commitment for provision of Health for All right from peripheral to rural and urban slums through National & Rural Health Mission, which will entail very large human resource capital in health sector. The healthcare industry's size is currently estimated at US$20 billion and can increase to US$60 billion by 2010. The rate of growth of the health care industry in India is moving ahead neck to neck with the pharmaceutical industry and the software industry of the country. Much has been done in the health care sector for bringing about improvement. Approximately 12% of the scope offered by the health care industry in India has been tapped. The health care industry in India is reckoned to be the engine of the economy in the years to come. Health care industry in India is worth US$17 billion and is anticipated to grow by 13% every year. The health care sector encompasses health care instruments, health care in the retail market, hospitals enrolled to the hospital networks. The demand for healthcare services in India has grown from US$4.8 billion in 1991 to US$22.8 billion in 2001-02, indicating a compounded annual growth rate of 16%. The healthcare industry accounted for 5.2% of Indias in 2002 and this figure could reach US$47 billion or 6.2-7.5% of GDP by 2012. On one hand, the Indian middle class, with its increasing purchasing power, more willing than ever 2011-02-01 more for quality healthcare. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-motilal01isfrom 124.247.215.155 onbefore to pay07:54:14 EST. DownloadPDF. The supply of healthcare services has grown steadily, as the private sector becomes more involved in owning and running hospitals. The recent trends also show how the hospitals have become quality conscious. Reputed hospitals like Wadia and Masina in central and south Mumbai and others across the country have hired a reputed healthcare consultancy firm to do a quality gap analysis and help them streamline operations and management and suggest ways to bring about better sustainability.
INTER-FIRM COMPARISON
Operational Performance Operational Performance Sales Vs Growth (Rs in million) Revenue: Apollo Hospitals OND 09 (A) OND 10 (E) Growth % Enterprise Ltd to post highest Apollo 4808.70 6491.75 35.00 sales Indraprastha 1076.42 1151.77 7.00 As per Cygnus estimates, for the 335.35 368.89 10.00 quarter ended OND10, Apollo Kovai Medicals 515.80 541.59 5.00 Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. will Fortis Healthcare Source: BSE India; Cygnus Research register highest sales of Rs6491.75m as against Rs4808.70m of the same Note:(A) Actuals; (E) Estimated period last year. The companys continuous investments in research and development has resulted in increased productivity and better quality of drugs, medicines, medical instruments, hospital equipment, and other medical supplies. Unique product and service offering across the value chain and diversified market and customer base would have added to the revenues of the company. The companys operating metrics position is healthy with good indication of revenue for the whole year. The company is keen to venture in emerging fields of technology. For the quarter OND10, other companies like Indraprastha, Fortis and Kovai Medical are expected to do well in the quarter-ended OND10 as compared to the same period last year. Indraprastha is estimated to register sales of Rs11.5177m an increase of 7% compared to OND 09. The medical industry is highly fragmented, comprising of various ancillary sectors namely medical equipment and supplies, pharmaceutical, healthcare services, biotechnology, and alternative medicine sectors. With the invention of latest technological developments, the healthcare industry is catching up with the other leading industries of the world. Other companies in the industries are also expected to increase as there is a focus by various overseas companies to open clinics in new areas of business.
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-motilal01 from 124.247.215.155 on 2011-02-01 07:54:14 EST. DownloadPDF. Financial Performance in OND10
As per Cygnus estimates, in Diagnostics sector, Kovai Medicals estimated OPM of 66.58% and in case of NPM also the company is expected to do well at 32.18%. EBITDA is expected an increase of 9% on quarterly basis. For this year, the companys major focus is to consolidate its operations by improving efficiencies, reducing cost and strengthen product development and better schemes and plan capabilities. Financial Performance OND 09 (A) Vs OND10 (E) Apollo Indraprashta Kovai Medicals OND 09 OND10 OND09 OND 10 OND 09 OND10 4808.70 6491.75 1076.42 1151.77 335.35 368.89 16.16 12.98 16.05 17.59 61.55 66.58 9.13 7.80 6.71 7.80 28.47 32.18
Fortis Healthcare OND09 OND10 515.80 541.59 54.20 61.53 124.00 126.97
Cost Structure OND 09 Vs OND 10 (Percentage of net sales) For Healthcare industry, Raw Material expenditure is the major driver of the cost structure. Being a service intensive industry, staff and administration expenses are the second major cost drivers followed by depreciation expenses. Tax for the companies altogether is estimated to be less than the industry average due to Government policies. Interest cost for most of the companies is estimated to decrease marginally which is proportional to the net sales and based on the ongoing reduction of revenue. Other expenditure has increased due to growth in revenue. Hence, the companies are making efforts to have control on other expenses. Depreciation charges for some of the companies are expected to increase marginally as they re-estimated the value of assets and the accruing more assets to expand infrastructure.
Diagnostics Sector
Cost Structure (Percentage of Net Sales) - OND 09 Vs OND 10 Company Kovai Medicals Fortis Health Care Industry Year 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 Stock in trade -1.37 1.39 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.06 Raw material 16.74 13.24 27.03 26.77 7.27 22.96 Staff cost 12.91 14.92 21.66 21.45 16.41 13.97 Traded Goods 16.93 14.95 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.64 Other expenditure 36.43 37.45 40.81 40.42 59.73 48.65 Depreciation 3.56 2.67 5.18 5.13 3.46 2.82 Interest 3.17 3.21 5.23 5.13 1.97 1.60 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-motilal01 from 124.247.215.155 on 2011-02-01 07:54:14 EST. DownloadPDF. 3.28 Tax 3.74 4.10 0.00 0.00 3.99
Source: BSE; Cygnus Research
COMPANY ANALYSIS
1. Apollo Hospitals
Quarter OND 10 (E) 6491.75 842.45 148.05 86.39 117.15 725.16 218.80 506.36 13% 8% 30% Growth Rate % YoY 35% 8% 5% 2% 10% 10% 0% 15% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 14579.80 18257.80 25% 2201.20 2812.60 28% 439.20 543.10 24% 223.10 377.50 69% 223.70 329.70 47% 1762.60 2221.70 26% 541.70 702.00 30% 1220.90 1519.70 24% 15% 15% 8% 8% 31% 32%
Item Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT TAX PAT OPM NPM Tax Rate
OND 09 (A) 4808.70 777.10 141.00 84.70 106.50 657.90 218.80 439.10 16% 9% 33%
JFM 11 (P) 6519.15 629.56 151.31 87.24 61.05 452.07 141.10 310.97 10% 5% 31%
2. IndraPrastha Hospitals
Item Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT TAX PAT OPM NPM Tax Rate
OND 09 (A) 1076.42 172.75 53.26 10.09 0.00 109.40 37.19 72.21 16% 7% 34%
Quarter OND 10 (E) 1151.77 202.60 55.28 11.17 0.00 136.14 46.29 89.85 18% 8% 34%
JFM 11 (P) 1192.15 219.95 57.22 11.56 0.00 151.16 51.40 99.77 18% 8% 34%
(Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 4058.83 4364.80 8% 616.68 696.97 13% 186.68 192.90 3% 57.48 38.54 -33% 0.00 0.00 0% 372.52 465.53 25% 133.66 154.93 16% 238.86 310.60 30% 15% 16% 6% 7% 36% 33%
10
3. Kovai Medicals
Quarter OND 10 (E) 368.89 66.58 9.85 11.84 2.43 47.32 15.14 32.18 18% 9% 32% Growth Rate % YoY 10% 8% -18% 11% 20% 15% 21% 13% (Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 1113.27 1304.10 17% 191.80 252.32 32% 39.15 46.88 20% 44.34 48.37 9% 2.03 15.25 651% 110.34 172.32 56% 38.93 56.46 45% 71.41 115.86 62% 17% 19% 6% 9% 35% 33%
Item Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT TAX PAT OPM NPM Tax Rate
OND 09 (A) 335.35 61.55 11.94 10.62 2.02 41.01 12.54 28.47 18% 8% 31%
JFM 11 (P) 398.26 70.69 12.86 9.20 6.75 55.38 17.28 38.09 18% 9% 31%
Item Net Sales EBITDA Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT TAX PAT OPM NPM Tax Rate
OND 09 (A) 515.80 54.20 26.70 27.00 123.50 124.00 0.00 124.00 11% 19% 0%
Quarter OND 10 (E) 541.59 61.53 27.78 27.81 121.03 126.97 0.00 126.97 11% 19% 0%
JFM 11 (P) 637.12 160.43 25.80 81.42 123.03 176.23 0.00 176.23 25% 23% 0%
(Rs in million) Full Year Ended March March Growth 09 (A) 10 (E) Rate % 1744.50 2098.10 20% 78.50 220.60 181% 115.40 107.90 -6% 219.50 222.80 2% 190.00 411.50 117% -66.40 301.40 -554% 5.10 0.00 -100% -71.50 301.40 -522% 4% 11% -4% 12% -8% 0%
11
The cut-off date for OND quarter results is January 18, 2011. Quarterly performance analysis of companies announcing their results after this date is based on Cygnus estimates.
12