Professional Documents
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ORDER of PRESENTATION
Maldives Indonesia Thailand Jordan Vietnam Tonga Bahamas Nepal Guyana Philippines Mongolia Lai Peop Dem Reo Australia Albania Bangladesh New Zealand Lesotho Ghana Mauritius Malaysia Seychelles Barbados Kenya Greece Nethelands Iran Portugal Latvia Kyrgystan Ethiopia Israel Egypt Jamaica
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Expected Impacts
Impacts can be expected in ocean circulation; sea level; the water cycle; carbon and nutrient cycles; air quality; the productivity and structure of natural ecosystems; the productivity of agricultural, grazing, and timber lands; and the geographic distribution, behavior, abundance, and survival of plant and animal species, including vectors and hosts of human disease.
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Scenarios
Socio-economic, Land Use, and Environmental Sea-Level Rise Climate (eg. GCMs) Scenarios of the 21st Century
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Combined Scenarios
Climate Scenario
Socio-economic Scenario
Current Climate
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Ways of Adapting
Bear losses Share losses Modify the threat Prevent effects Change use Change location (Evacuation) Research Educate, inform and encourage behavioral change
Adaptation Measures
Autonomous
is the ongoing implementation of existing knowledge and technology in response to the changes in climate experienced
Planned
is the increase in adaptive capacity by mobilising institutions and policies to establish or strengthen conditions favourable for effective adaptation and investment in new technologies and infrastructure.
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Water quality would generally be degraded by higher water temp. linked to rates of biogeochemical processes and compounded by lower dissolved oxygen Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions Irrigation demands would increase due to higher evapo-transpiration Stresses on regions to satisfy potable water needs
Management features of any watershed could compound the impacts of climate on water availability and water quality and the hydrologic cycle in general
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Land use and management have been shown to have a greater impact on soil conditions than the indirect effect of climate change; thus, adaptation has the potential to significantly mitigate these impacts.
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Summary of Impacts
Can be negative and positive Yield increases in temperate regions with moderate temp increases Yield decreases in tropics Degradation of Soil and Water resources emerges as one of the major challenges for global agriculture.
Degradative processes acting on soils will be compounded by climate change but Land Use and Management have a greater impact on soil conditions than climate change Special role of organic matter in soils
Impacts on income in agriculture to be positive in more developed countries but less so or even negative in poorer countries CO2 effects and interactions with other factors Interactions between climate change and other factors Impacts on livestock
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Planned Adaptations
Changing management practice requires managers to be convinced that the climate changes are real and are likely to continue and that the projected changes will significantly impact on their enterprise. Where the existing technical options are inadequate to respond, investment in new technical or management options may be required
improved crop, forage, livestock, forest and fisheries germplasm, including via biotechnology or old technologies revived in response to the new conditions.
Planned Adaptations
Where there are major land use changes, industry location changes and migration, there may be a role for governments to support these transitions via direct financial and material support, creating alternative livelihood options. These include
Reduced dependence on agriculture, supporting community partnerships in developing food and forage banks, enhancing capacity to develop social capital and share information, providing food aid and employment to the more vulnerable and developing contingency plans. Effective planning for and management of such transitions may also result in less habitat loss, less risk of carbon loss and also lower environmental costs such as soil degradation, siltation and reduced biodiversity. Developing new infrastructure, policies and institutions to support the new management and land use arrangements by addressing climate change in development programs Enhanced investment in irrigation infrastructure and efficient water use technologies Ensuring appropriate transport and storage infrastructure Revising land tenure arrangements, including attention to well-defined property rights Establishment of accessible, efficiently functioning markets for products and inputs and for financial services, including insurance.
Developing the capacity to make continuing adjustments and improvements in adaptation by understanding what is working, what is not and why, via targeted monitoring of adaptations to climate change and their costs and effects.
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Much of the prime agricultural land is located on the coastal plains which are threatened by sea-level rise. In the Caribbean, analysis of data from the late 1950s to 2000 has shown that the number of very warm days and nights is increasing dramatically and the number of very cool days and nights are decreasing, while the extreme inter-annual temperature range is decreasing.
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Autonomous Adaptations
Strategies suggested for planted forests include
Changes in management intensity Changes in hardwood/softwood species mix, timber growth and harvesting patterns within and between regions Modifications to rotation periods Salvaging dead timber Shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions Landscape planning to minimise fire and insect damage, adjusting to altered wood size and quality, and adjusting fire-management systems.
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Planned Adaptations
From a policy position many are similar to those listed under adaptations in agriculture
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