URBAN EFFECTS ON RAINFALL VARIABILITY: POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR GEORGIAS WATER SUPPLY

Marshall Shepherd and Thomas L. Mote

AUTHORS: University of Georgia Geography, 107 GG Building Athens Georgia 30602 REFERENCE: Proceedings of the 2009 Georgia Water Resources Conference, held April 2729, 2009, at the University of Georgia.

Abstract. Some projections place the world population over 8.5 billion by 2025, and 60% of people will live in cities. Humans have traditionally settled near water resources and often modify these ecosystems. Historically, the feedback between human and natural systems has affected social structure as well as ecosystem integrity. Studies have suggested that if Atlanta, a typical post-modern North American city, continues to grow at the same rate as the recent past, the net increase in urban land cover from 1999 to 2050 will be 928,379 ha or about 50 ha per day, representing an increase of 254% for the entire period. The heavy reliance on automobiles to commute between the suburb and the workplace and the traffic congestion will generate more aerosols and air pollution. Both urban land cover and aerosols have been shown to directly or indirectly affect hydrometeorological processes. In recent years, expertise concentrated in the University of Georgia Department of Geography has developed innovative observational and coupled atmosphere-land surface modeling strategies to investigate the urban-rainfall problem. Herein, we present recent published findings establishing that Atlantas built environment may be significantly altering aspects of regional precipitation (e.g., amount, intensity, and frequency) and surface hydrology. Further, we consider the possibility of leveraging such scientific findings to support decision-making related to the development and placement of new water supply resources (e.g., reservoirs) in Georgia.

to a major water resource. Human modification of the landscape, their activities, and interaction with natural systems (e.g., pumping water) all affect the water cycle and associated ecosystems. Although impacts to the water cycle and ecosystems have been quantified, the feedbacks are in general not well understood. Moreover, policy development and institutional and individual decision making rarely consider comprehensively human and water cycle interactions and feedbacks. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (Trenberth et al. 2007) noted a growing interest in understanding what role urban land cover/land use (LCLU) and pollution has on climate change. Of particular importance was chapter 3 (section 3.3.2.4) of the latest IPCC report, which discussed the growing body of research linking urbanrelated processes with regional precipitation changes. Shepherd et al. (2008) reviews recent studies highlighting urban rainfall anomalies (hereafter the urban rainfall effect or URE) around Tokyo, Beijing, Taipei, Jerusalem, Sydney, Kolkata, Houston, St. Louis, Paris and other European Cities, Chinese Cities, and Atlanta.

INTRODUCTION
Recently, the National Science Foundation (NSF) published Water: Challenges at the Intersection of Human and Natural Systems, 2005. Two overarching questions were posed: (1) Can human intervention in the water cycle set processes and trajectories in motion that we cannot readily see because they are masked by complexity and variation? and (2) Can we begin to put all the pieces together in a way in which we can begin to forecast environmental changes related to waterand therefore intervene before irreparable environmental or social damage is done? Humans have traditionally settled near water. In the US, 42 of the largest 44 metropolitan areas are adjacent

Figure 1. Conceptualization of spatial extent of urban rainfall effect (an adaptation from Shepherd et al. 2002 in Simpson 2006). The literature, however, is not consistent on whether urban environments always enhance precipitation. Kaufmann et al (2007) used an econometric analysis of rain

gauge data to conclude that urbanization in the Pearl River Delta of China has reduced local precipitation. Guo et al (2005) found decreased cumulative rainfall around Beijing. Neither of these studies, however, considered the possible effects of pollution. Smaller cloud droplet size distributions and suppressed rainfall have been shown to occur due to increased aerosol concentrations from anthropogenic sources over and downwind of urban areas. Recent studies (Lacke et al. 2009; Jin and Shepherd 2008; Levin et al. 2008; van dan Heever and Cotton 2007; Rosenfeld et al. 2007) are beginning to shed light on these processes. An idealized diagram of the typical geographic pattern of the urban rainfall anomaly is shown in Figure 1. Locations 25-75 km downwind of the city center and within a 125 sector will typically experience the greatest increase in rainfall due to the urban region (Landsberg 1970; Huff and Vogel 1978; Changnon et al. 1981; Bornstein and Lin 2000; Shepherd et al. 2002; Diem and Mote 2005; Shepherd 2006; Mote et al. 2007; Hand and Shepherd 2008). There is renewed debate on how the urban environment affects precipitation variability. Shepherd (2005) provides a recent review of possible mechanisms for urbanization to enhance or initiate precipitation or convection. They include one or a combination of the following: (1) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness in the urban environment (e.g., Changnon et al. 1981; Bornstein and Lin 2000); (2) enhanced sensible heat fluxes (e.g. Thielen et al. 2000); (3) destabilization due to urban heat island (UHI)-thermal perturbation of the boundary layer and resulting downstream translation of the UHI circulation or UHI-generated convective clouds (e.g., Shepherd et al. 2002; Shepherd and Burian 2003; Baik et al. 2007); (4) enhanced aerosols in the urban environment for cloud condensation nuclei sources (e.g., Rosenfeld et al. 2007); or (5) bifurcation or diversion of precipitating systems by the urban canopy or related processes (e.g., Bornstein and Leroy 1990). Herein, we review recent observational and numerical modeling studies showing how Atlanta, Georgia can alter or create warm-season rainfall. We also raise the issue of whether the URE on regional hydro-climatology must be considered in planning for future water supply strategies in North Georgia. The state of Georgia has been in a decade-long dispute with neighboring Alabama and Florida over how to manage the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basins. The Atlanta metropolitan area is a major consumer of water from these systems and its growth will continue to stress the system. The recent historic drought (2006-2008) has heightened this dispute as major reservoir levels have dropped due to water use, lack of rainfall, and federal policy decisions related to release of water from major reservoirs for ecological and energy reasons.

OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF AN ATLANTA URE

Bornstein and Lin (2000) hypothesized that Atlanta tended to create thunderstorms over and downwind during the summer of 1996. They analyzed surface meteorological data but were limited to a small sample of case days. Shepherd et al. (2002) used satellite-based rainfall estimates to establish the feasibility of using such measurements when robust ground measurements are not readily available (e.g. most developing international cities). They found evidence of a downwind anomaly in the southeast suburbs of Atlanta. However, this study used very coarse resolution satellite data and only examined three years. Using an array of observational data sets, Dixon and Mote (2003) found that nocturnal heat islands in Atlanta could initiate storms under proper stability and moisture conditions. Diem and Mote (2005) provided possibly the first long-term climatological analysis of the Atlanta rainfall effect. They established that northeast and east suburbs, particularly in areas of Gwinnett County had statistically-significant rainfall anomalies compared to other sites.

Figure 2. Warm season radar-derived rainfall anomalies downwind (east) of Atlanta (following Mote et al. 2007). Darker green shades represent larger cumulative totals. The data represent cumulative rainfall totals during the warm season (June-August) from 2002 to 2006.

MODELING EVIDENCE OF AN ATLANTA URE

Coupled atmosphere-land surface (CALS) modeling work is required to properly study the physical processes underpinning the URE since we cannot physically remove Atlanta to see how the hydroclimate responds. CALS modeling enables controlled, designed experiments with the ability to replicate various meteorological and land cover scenarios. Shepherd et al. (2008) reviews the current and historical literature on urban-convectionprecipitation modeling studies. What is clear from those modeling studies is that urban land cover alters the thermodynamic and dynamic process of the atmospheric surface and boundary layer and can certainly alter convective processes under certain conditions. What is not clear from the literature is what set of factors (convergence, fluxes, boundary layer destabilization, or aerosols) is most important and under what circumstances. Craig and Bornstein (2002) argued that enhanced convergence over the Atlanta led to storminitiation. However, this result was published in a conference proceeding but never published in the refereed literature.

Figure 3. Downwind augmentation of cloud-to ground lightning activity for Atlanta, Georgia under northwest prevailing wind flow (typical) following Stallins and Rose (2008). Mote et al. 2007, using Doppler radar analysis, showed (Figure 2) that the eastern (e.g. downwind) suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia receive up to 30% more warm season rainfall during evening and early morning hours, possibly because of the URE. Figure 2 is quite revealing because it clearly demonstrates that the radar analysis captures the rainfall patterns associated with wellestablished mountain (North) and sea breeze (Southeast) forcing. It is interesting that the downwind Atlanta anomaly is so apparent considering that climatologically there is no difference between the east, west, north, and south sectors of the city. Diem (2008) extended his previous findings of a northeast suburban Atlanta rainfall anomaly by employing a robust statistical analysis. Stallins and Rose (2008) presented evidence of enhanced lighting activity within 80 km downwind of Atlanta (Figure 3), peaking in central Gwinnett County. This finding further validates the rainfall studies since Atlantas warm season rainfall is usually convective. Rose et al. (2008) coupled lightning data with the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset and showed enhancement of lightning and precipitation around Atlanta as a function of prevailing wind. This finding, also supported by similar findings of Hand and Shepherd (2008), offer some guidance on why the downwind anomaly location may vary from the northeast, east, and southeast suburbs. These differences may also reflect different methodological approaches and data. Lacke et al. (2009) examined the potential role that Atlantas polluted air plays in warm season convection. Though limited to two years of data, their results suggest that polluted days are associated with increased rainfall frequency and amount. Their work also investigated the possibility of a weekly cycle in rainfall that may be correlated with a weekly aerosol (pollution) cycle.

Figure 4. Enhanced total accumulated rainfall zone eastern side (selected rectangle) of the city superimposed on the difference plot for convergence between the URBAN and NOURBAN scenarios. The selected rectangle covers a strip approximately 20-50 km from the city center - marked ATL (from Shem and Shepherd 2008). Shem and Shepherd (2008) used a CLMS to investigate two Atlanta case studies: 17 August 2002 (an urban interaction case) and 26th July 1996 (an urban initiation case). Case 1 was chosen based on analysis of radar composites and surface maps which identified it as an event likely to have some urban forcing with minimal

large scale forcing; while Case 2 was based on a previous observational study indicating that the storm was initiated by urban heat island induced convergence zone. The control (URBAN) simulations begin three hours prior to the observed storm initiations and reveal that the model captures the convective evolution of the cases. The alternative (NOURBAN) simulations indicate that removing the city of Atlanta causes distinct differences in the temporal and spatial evolution of the explicitly resolved precipitation. However these differences point more to the likelihood of modification rather than initiation of convective systems. Time series of cumulative rainfall totals indicate that the explicitly resolved rainfall is initiated at the same time in both the URBAN and NOURBAN simulations. The rainfall initiation time even within sub-sections of the domain is the same for the URBAN and NO URBAN scenario. Rainfall amounts downwind of the city are higher by 10% to 13% within a strip 20-50 km east of the city (Figure 4), for the URBAN schemes in comparison to NOURBAN.

first 4 terms in Eq. (1)). is surface albedo, and S is downward solar radiation, thus, (1 - ) S is reflected solar radiation. LW is longwave radiation. Emissivity () and surface skin temperature (Tskin), through the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, describe the upward longwave radiation, or surface emission. In an urban environment, an urban heat storage and anthropogenic term are also be added to equation (1). Urban modifications affect the surface energy budget. In addition, building heights increase roughness length and thus SH and LE through enhanced surface turbulence. Simulated sensible and latent heat flux variations for the two scenarios indicated characteristics that could explain part of the disparities between the convection over the two landcover types. Earlier and higher peak-values of the sensible heat flux may cause an earlier perturbation of the boundary layer and hence earlier formation of convective activities. However, we hypothesize that this process is counter-balanced by lower moisture availability over the urban land cover. Further research into the partial contributions and interactions of sensible heat flux, latent heat flux (and moisture availability) should be conducted to determine the limiting factors in convective thunderstorms formation over the Atlanta region. Simulated low-level convergence showed a notable convergence ring around the boundaries of the city indicating that it could have been caused by the increased surface roughness of the urban surface or more likely, the leading edge of urban-induced circulation. However the phenomena were short lived and did not lead to initiation of convective activities over that zone. Han and Baik (2008) and Baik et al (2007) recently proposed that a downwind urban-induced circulation and associated convergence is responsible for the positive precipitation anomaly over the eastern peripheries of the city.

IMPLICATIONS FOR GEORGIAS WATER SUPLY

Figure 5. Proposed water supply reservoirs (courtesy of the Army Corps of Engineers). Red dots are planned reservoirs. To investigate physical mechanism related to the rainfall anomalies, we consider the surface energy budget: (1 - ) S+ LW- Tskin4 SH LH G = 0, (1) The previous discussion is intended to raise the question as to whether the urban rainfall effect in North Georgia should be considered in planning the next-generation water supply reservoirs. The literature is increasingly clear that urban land cover and pollution alters the regional hydro-climate and there is no reason to expect this result to cease as urban development continues. Figure 5 illustrates where future reservoirs are planned. While the eastern side of Atlanta is represented, the statistical hotspots for the urban rainfall effect (portions of Gwinnett and Dekalb County) are a possible missed opportunity to leverage urban-enhanced rainfall. Some studies suggest that the urban effect can enhance warm season rainfall by 10-50%. However, several questions remain. Will expanding urbanization (Figure 6) alter or extend the geo-

where SH is sensible heat flux, LH is latent heat flux, and G is the ground heat flux. This equation is the basis for the land surface model calculations. SH, LW and G compete for surface net radiation, which is the downward minus upward shortwave and longwave radiation (the

graphic location of the rainfall anomaly region? How will secondary urban development regions contribute to the urban rainfall effect? What is the synergistic role of land cover, air pollution, and other forcing mechanisms (vegetation heterogeneity)? How can stakeholders properly account for this unique coupled human-natural system feedback? We argue that future scientific and stakeholder communities should consider an integrated systems modeling and observation approach. This approach couples physical, transportation, and socio-economic models to address societal concerns such as water resource management. This work is partially funded by the NASA Precipitation Measurement Missions Program.

Figure 6. Projected Atlanta urban land cover growth from the Prescott College Growth Model (follow Estes et al. 2003).

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