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Wipro
Company update Poised to perform well
We recently attended Wipros analyst meet. The meet focused on the companys strategy to build differentiation in selected segments in various industry verticals and service lines. The company maintained that investments to develop domain capabilities are going on to help drive medium-term growth. The senior management team indicated that the demand scenario remains volatile due to uncertainty across the globe but outsourcing/offshoring as a means of driving productivity as well as cost benefits remains crucial to clients. We believe Wipro is poised to outperform some of its peer companies due to the following reasons: Strategy To focus upon chosen areas in industry verticals and services: Wipro has chosen its growth strategy to revolve around focusing on selected few segments in terms of industry verticals and services. The company has identified four momentum industry verticals: 1) BFSI, 2) energy and utilities, 3) retail and 4) lifesciences and healthcare. These verticals all-together account for 65% of the company's revenue. Wipro has higher exposure (as a proportion of revenue) as compared to its peers in three out of the above-mentioned four momentum verticals. Optimal margin levers in hand: Wipro has operating margin levers such as improving utilization level and increasing offshore revenue. Wipros utilization level is currently at 67.4%, which is at a historic low level since FY2008. The company has headroom to improve its utilization by ~300bp even if management does not want to run a tight ship. In addition, Wipros share of offshore revenue declined to 45.6% due to SAICs acquisition from 49% earlier (peers have offshore revenue above 50%). Increasing offshoring of revenue is on Wipros cards right now and could offer a cushion to its margins. Outlook and valuation: Wipro emphasized its focus on profitable growth and aspirations to close the gap in profitability with peers. Early signs of restructuring yielding results are visible in terms of improvement in the deal pipeline, growth seen in the companys focus industry verticals and increasing revenue from the companys top clients. We expect Wipros revenue to post a CAGR of 13.7% over FY2012-14E, with EBITDA margin moving from 19.8% in FY2012 to 20.5% in FY2014. Over FY2012-14E, Wipros net profit is expected to post a CAGR of 15.2%, which is industry leading. We upgrade the stock to Buy with a target price of `452, valuing it at 15x FY2014E EPS of `30.1.
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 96,545 0.8 472/310 128,670 2 16,863 5,116 WIPR.BO WPRO@IN
`394 `452
12 Months
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 78.4 3.4 6.7 11.5
3m (4.1)
1yr (7.7)
(10.0) (10.1)
FY2011
31,099 14.7 5,297 15.3 21.2 21.7 18.1 4.0 22.0 15.5 2.8 13.3
FY2012
37,525 20.7 5,573 5.2 19.8 22.7 17.3 3.4 19.5 14.7 2.3 11.7
FY2013E
43,150 15.0 6,362 14.2 20.0 25.9 15.2 2.9 19.1 14.7 1.9 9.5
FY2014E
48,541 12.5 7,390 16.1 20.5 30.1 13.1 2.5 19.0 14.8 1.6 7.6
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
Strategy To focus upon chosen areas in industry verticals and services lines
The company has chosen its growth strategy to revolve around focusing on selected few segments in terms of industry verticals and services. The company has chosen 138 clients as mega gamma accounts, which management believes have the potential to grow to US$50m+ in future. The company is also looking for growth by gaining market share amid the churn happening among vendors.
Industry verticals Focus on BSFI, retail, energy and utilities and life sciences and healthcare
Wipro has identified four momentum industry verticals: 1) BFSI, 2) energy and utilities, 3) retail and 4) lifesciences and healthcare and seeks to drive stronger revenue growth by focusing on these key verticals. These verticals all together account for 65% of the company's revenue. Wipro has higher exposure (as a proportion of revenue) as compared to its peers in three out of the above-mentioned four momentum verticals. These three industry verticals are energy and utilities, retail and lifesciences and healthcare. BFSI where the exposure of Wipro is less than its peers (as a proportion of revenue), as indicated by the managements of most IT companies, is seeing pressure in terms of IT spending, especially from investment banking clients. Wipro expects overall BFSI budgets to remain flat, or even see cuts, given the stressed financial institutions in the U.S. and Europe. Management of all IT companies have indicated that IT spend in industry verticals such as retail and energy and utilities is expected to grow higher than the overall industry growth. Wipros revenue run-rate from the energy and utilities vertical is substantially higher than all its peers because of SAICs acquisition. Post the acquisition, Wipro's revenue from the energy and utilities industry vertical is ~100% higher than the next largest competitor in this space (Infosys).
(US$ mn)
150 108 100 50 Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech Quaterly revenue run-rate from energy and utilities indsutry vertical 101 71
We expect the high growth trajectory in energy and utilities to continue because of trends such as: government-operated utilities such as electricity, gas and water supply in countries such as 1) the U.S., U.K., Australia and Japan being deregulated and opened up to competition and (2) entities seeking to improve efficiency, profitability and customer service.
5 0 (5)
5 0 (5) 3QFY11 4QFY11 Infosys 1QFY12 TCS 2QFY12 Wipro 3QFY12 HCL Tech 4QFY12
(10) (15) (20) 3QFY11 4QFY11 Infosys 1QFY12 TCS 2QFY12 Wipro 3QFY12 HCL Tech 4QFY12
(US$ mn)
252
HCL Tech
(%)
5 0 (5)
1QFY12 TCS
2QFY12 Wipro
4QFY12
As Indian vendors ramp-up their presence in China, they can target the Japanese geography from China and eat into the 55% Chinese market share. Wipros exposure to emerging nations is higher than its peers, which put Wipro in a profitable zone to capture IT spending market share as incremental growth is expected to come from MNCs trying to expand their footprints globally.
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: MEA exposure of Wipro includes exposure to India
Optimal margin levers in hand coupled with cheers from INR depreciation
Growth is a key margin lever for IT companies as it aids in the broadening of employee pyramid by hiring a larger number of freshers and bringing in scale benefits by leveraging SG&A costs. Currently, the growth rates of IT companies are declining and this will be a headwind to the margins of Indian IT companies. In such a scenario, the levers to support operating margins are: 1) improving utilization level and 2) increasing offshore revenue. Wipro believes it has scope to tighten operations, which will help the company to bridge the gap in terms of profitability with its peers over the medium term. Wipros utilization level (including trainees) is currently standing at 67.4%, which is a historic low level since FY2008. The company has got room to improve its utilization level by ~300bp even if management does not want to run a tight ship. Such improvement in utilization level can add 100-120bp to the companys operating margin. Wipro has the highest room to improve margins among peers.
(%)
70 69 68 67 66
67.1
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
45.6
Utilization level
Source: Company, Angel Research
Wipros revenue from offshore declined to 45.6% from 49% earlier due to SAICs acquisition. Infosys and TCS derive more than 50% of their revenue from offshore effort base. Increasing offshoring at SAIC as well as from other locations is on Wipros cards right now and this could again provide a cushion to its margin. Also, increased offshoring of revenue is always considered as a growth lever during the downturn.
(%)
4QFY12
process of workforce alignment is complete, while the capabilities assignment is still going on. The company indicated it had seen the results of transformation in a few client instances and now needs to work on institutionalizing the process. Wipro has set up dedicated hunting and farming organizations to get more market share in existing accounts and run-the-business budgets. In addition, Wipro has created a dedicated organization to target the change-the-business budgets. We believe these initiatives will start showing results once there is a revival in demand, but the extent of the success will be known only in due course of time.
Wipros organization restructuring is almost complete and the company is focusing on areas such as cloud, mobility and analytics (in tandem with other industry peers) along with building industry-leading competencies in several sub-segments to differentiate itself. Wipro is focused more on customer satisfaction now and has linked its reward system to customer satisfaction and growth and increased gross margins.
(`)
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
34x
28x
21x
14x
7x
Apr-12
FY2010* 27,124 18,630 8,494 31.3 1,861 6.9 1,482 5.5 783 2.9 5,151 19.0 337 53 5,541 929 16.8 4,612 18 4,594 18.9
FY2011 31,099 21,285 9,814 31.6 2,218 7.1 1,829 5.9 821 2.6 5,767 18.5 472 64.8 6,303 971 15.4 5,332 35 5,297 21.7
FY2012 37,525 26,317 11,207 29.9 2,778 7.4 2,029 5.4 1,013 2.7 6,401 17.1 541 33.3 6,975 1,376 19.7 5,599 26 5,573 22.7
FY2013E 43,150 30,052 13,099 30.4 3,305 7.7 2,360 5.5 1,178 2.7 7,435 17.2 728 20 8,182 1,800 22.0 6,382 20 6,362 25.9
FY2014E 48,541 33,656 14,885 30.7 3,713 7.6 2,531 5.2 1,325 2.7 8,641 17.8 1,024 20 9,686 2,276 23.5 7,410 1 20 7,390 30.1
10
FY2010* 5,380 401 5,346 235 120 346 169 878 12,875 793 5,093 2,111 1,671 3,042 660 262 6,488 20,118 32,993 294 2,919 16,579 314 (440) (54) 19,611 44 19,655 1,811 38 288 307 323 10 2776.7 4,440 3,875 746 485 138 650 227 10,561 13,338 32,993
FY2011 5,482 355 5,509 299 298 924 147 898 13,913 971 6,163 1,974 2,415 4,928 496 171 6,114 23,231 37,144 491 3,012 20,325 136 58 (54) 23,968 69 24,037 1,976 30 259 502 271 8 3045.3 3,304 4,405 660 734 136 591 232 10,062 13,107 37,144
FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 6,794 423 5,899 323 346 1,029 260 1,178 16,251 1,066 8,033 2,574 3,003 4,196 564 147 7,767 27,349 43,600 492 3,046 24,191 198 659 (54) 28,531 85 28,616 2,251 35 31 540 352 6 3215.3 3,645 4,726 957 723 635 970 112 11,769 14,984 43,600 6,794 423 5,921 400 346 1,338 300 1,469 16,991 1,064 8,275 2,632 3,192 9,545 780 247 7,810 33,546 50,536 492 3,046 28,831 198 659 (54) 33,171 85 33,256 2,401 70 350 700 400 16 3937 3,978 5,763 750 780 635 1,220 216 13,343 17,280 50,536 6,794 423 5,796 400 346 1,234 300 1,477 16,769 1,197 9,309 2,700 3,591 13,156 800 250 10,547 41,550 58,319 492 3,046 34,498 198 659 (54) 38,838 85 38,923 2,551 80 370 850 450 15 4316 4,350 6,455 900 850 635 1,620 270 15,080 19,396 58,319
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FY2010* 5,204 783 (18) 5,969 337 6,306 (929) 5,377 (1,076) 237 (840) 4,537 (1,150) 182 (1,455) 268 (120) (346) 20 (436) (70) (3,107) (157) 982 (679) 146 1,576 4,912 6,488
FY2011 5,832 821 (35) 6,618 472 7,090 (971) 6,119 (1,601) (499) (2,101) 4,018 (985) (56) (1,951) 22 (178) (578) 25 103 (20) (3,616) 165 617 (1,558) (775) (374) 6,488 6,114
FY2012 6,434 1,013 (26) 7,422 541 7,962 (1,376) 6,586 (3,197) 1,707 (1,490) 5,096 (1,402) (1,380) 708 (113) (48) (105) 16 (105) (280) (2,709) 275 713 (1,723) (735) 1,653 6,114 7,767
FY2013E 7,455 1,178 (20) 8,613 728 9,340 (1,800) 7,540 (805) 1,575 770 8,310 (1,200) (5,426) (40) (310) 572 (290) (6,694) 150 0 (1,723) (1,573) 43 7,767 7,810
FY2014E 8,661 1,325 (20) 9,967 1,024 10,991 (2,276) 8,715 (1,656) 1,737 81 8,796 (1,200) (3,611) 104 229 (8) (4,486) 150 (0) (1,723) (1,573) 2,737 7,810 10,547
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio(x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Fully diluted) Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover(fixed assets) Receivables days Payable days
Note: *Adjusted for 2:3 bonus
FY2010* 20.8 8.9 4.4 1.0 3.3 15.0 2.7 18.9 44.3 4.0 89.3 0.8 7.1 0.0 0.8 1.7 23.5 15.6 28.5 23.4 0.9 67 79
FY2011 18.1 8.7 4.0 1.5 2.8 13.3 2.4 21.7 45.1 6.0 98.0 0.8 7.7 0.0 0.8 1.5 22.2 15.5 28.0 22.0 0.9 66 71
FY2012 17.3 8.1 3.4 1.5 2.3 11.7 2.0 22.7 48.8 6.0 116.6 0.8 6.9 0.0 0.9 1.5 19.6 14.7 25.8 19.5 0.9 69 63
FY2013E 15.2 7.0 2.9 1.5 1.9 9.5 1.6 25.9 56.2 6.0 135.5 0.8 6.9 0.0 0.9 1.5 19.2 14.7 28.2 19.1 0.9 69 64
FY2014E 13.1 6.0 2.5 1.5 1.6 7.6 1.3 30.1 65.3 6.0 158.6 0.8 7.3 0.0 0.8 1.5 19.1 14.8 31.1 19.0 0.9 68 64
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Wipro No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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