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Hot Sauce!

Secret Sauce for Entrepreneurs


What Kills Startups?
Sooner or later, disaster will strike. A disciplined approach to iden fying and mi ga ng risks can help you beat the odds. Will you be ready? Weveallheardthesta s cthathalfofallstartupsfailwithintheirrstveyears.Theactual numberisevenbleaker.Inastudyofrmsformedin1998,only44%weres llaroundonly
About The Author
AkiraHiraiisthefounder andCEOofCayenne Consul ng,armthat hashelpedhundredsof entrepreneursprepare forthefundraising processbycra ing strategies,business plans,nancialforecasts, andpitchdecks. Akirastartedtwo technologycompaniesin SiliconValleyduringthe dotcombubble.His previousexperiencehas spannedinvestment banking,management consul ng,so ware engineering,andsales management.Heearned hisA.B.inEngineering SciencesatHarvard University. e=es mate
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Administra ve Oce of the U.S. Courts; U.S. Dept of Labor, Employment and Training Administra on.

fouryearslater,accordingtotheSmallBusinessAdministra on. Inanygivenyear,amongrmswithemployees,almostasmanyrmscloseorgobankrupt,as therearenewstartups: StartsandClosuresofEmployerFirms,20032007 Category NewFirms Closures Bankruptcies


2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

612,296 540,658 35,037

628,917 541,047 34,317

644,122 565,745 39,201

640,800e 587,800e 19,695

637,100e 560,300e 28,322

Somermsclosebychoice:theownerelectstore reormoveontosomethingnew,for example,anddecidesthatitiseasiertoshutdownthebusinessthanitistotrytosellit. Mostclosures,howevereventhosethatdonotendinbankruptcyaretheresultof unforeseencircumstances.ItseemsthatMurphysLawaectsentrepreneurs dispropor onately.O en,thesedisasterscouldhavebeenavoidedifcompanymanagement hadpaidmoreheedtotheprinciplesofriskmanagement.

RiskandReward
Whatdowemeanwhenwetalkaboutrisk?Simplystated,riskexistsinanysitua onwhere thereisapossibilityofanoutcomethatwewouldratheravoid. Unforeseencircumstancesandtheirnega veconsequencesaretheveryessenceofrisk.Ifwe couldpredictthefuture,therewouldbenouncertainty,andtherewouldbenorisk.

AkiraHirai CayenneConsul ng 714.TOP.PLAN akira@caycon.com @akira_hirai www.caycon.com

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Risksurroundsus.Withplumme nghomevalues,sinkingstockprices,andfrozencredit markets,thatfactissurelymoreevidenttodaythaneverbefore. Theipsideofriskisopportunity.Thereisadirectrela onshipbetweenriskandreward: thegreaterthepoten alupside,thegreatertherisksinvolved.(Asanaside,itsworth no ngthattheconverseisnotnecessarilytrue:situa onsthatinvolvegreatrisk some meshaveli leornoupside.Thesearestupidriskstotake.) Forentrepreneurs,thismeansthatifyouwanttohaveachanceatsuccess,youhaveto takesignicantrisks.Entrepreneurshipisneithereasynorriskfree.Andthatsexactlywhy morethanhalfofallstartupsfailwithinafewyears. Whileriskisanintegralpartofentrepreneurship,itdoesnthavetogetthebe erofyou. Greatentrepreneursachievesuccessthroughkeenawarenessandmanagementofrisks.

TheRiskManagementFramework
RiskManagementistheartandscienceofthinkingaboutwhatcouldgowrong,and whatshouldbedonetomi gatethoserisksinacosteec vemanner. Inordertoiden fyrisksandgureouthowbesttomi gatethem,werstneeda frameworkforclassifyingrisks. Allriskshavetwodimensionstothem:likelihoodofoccurrence,andseverityofthe poten alconsequences.Thesetwodimensionsformfourquadrants,whichinturnsuggest howwemighta empttomi gatethoserisks:

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Onceweknowtheseverityandlikelihoodofagivenrisk,wecananswertheques on:Does thebenetofmi ga ngariskoutweighthecostofdoingso?

QuadrantA:IgnorableRisks
Costeec venessisanimportantconsidera onindecidinghowwefaceuptorisks.Risks withrela velyminorconsequencesandarela velylowlikelihoodofoccurringthosein QuadrantAofourframeworkobviouslyarentworthspendingalotof meworryingabout. Anexampleofalowlikelihood,minorconsequenceriskmightbethepossibilityofge nga at reonyourwaytoarou nemee ng.Assumingyouserviceyourcarregularlyandyou driveonmaintainedroads,aat remightcauseyoutobelatetoamee ngonceeveryten years.Itsnotabigdeal.

QuadrantB:NuisanceRisks
Thenextcategoryofrisksarethosewecallnuisancerisksli lethingsthato enseemto gowrong,butwhoseimpactsareeasyenoughtominimizethroughstraigh orwardchanges inbehavior.Therearecountlessexamplesofnuisancerisksandsimplesolu ons:

Theprinterrunsoutoftonerwhileyourepreparingtheproposalforthecustomer mee ngthatstartsin30minutes.Solu ons:dontwaitun lthelastminute,andalways keepextratoneronhand. Yourleadengineergetstheuthreedaysbeforethescheduledreleasedateofyourrst customerbeta.Solu ons:createadevelopmentprocessfreeofdependenciesonanyone person,andbuildincon ngenciesforthefactthatalmosteverythingseemstotaketwice aslongandcosttwiceasmuchasyouoriginallyexpect. Youknockamugofcoeeintoyourlaptopkeyboardandcoatyourharddriveincream andsugar,makingyourmarke ngplaninaccessible.Solu on:useso waretoperform automateddailybackupssothatyoulllose,atmost,adayofworkifyoudestroyyour computer.

Withali lecommonsense,nuisancerisksshouldntcauseanylostsleep.

QuadrantC:InsurableRisks
Risksthatcouldhavemajorconsequencesbutarerela velyunlikelytohappenareo en insurable.Insuranceistheprac ceofspreadingthecostofanimprobablelossacrossagroup,

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sothatnosingleindividualbearstheen recostofadisaster.Everybodypaysapremiumto theinsurancecompany,andtheinsurancecompanypaysclaimbenetswhenoneofits customersexperiencesaninsuredloss. Hereareafewcommonformsofinsuranceandtheriskstheycover:

Property&CasualtyInsurancecanmi gatelossesfromre,the ,andnaturaldisasters; KeyExecu veInsurancecanmi gatelossesfromthedeathorincapacita onofa managementteammember; LiabilityInsurancecanmi gatelawsuitsresul ngfromproductdefectsoronsiteinjuries tovisitors; Errors&OmissionsInsurancecanmi gatelawsuitsfromdisgruntledcustomers;and Directors&OcersInsurancecanmi gatelawsuitsincasesofnegligence,harassment,or discrimina on.

Evenuncommonrisksareo eninsurable.Someunderwritersspecializeinwri ngunusual policies:eventcancella onsduetoadverseweather;orinjurytospecicbodyparts(early examplesincludeJimmyDurante,whoinsuredhisnosefor$50,000,andFredAstaire,who insuredhislegsfor$75,000).

QuadrantD:TheCompanyKillers
NowwecometotheCompanyKillers:theriskswithbotharela velyhighlikelihoodof occurrenceandmajorconsequences.TheseriskscansinkstartupsandFortune500companies alike.Thesurvivalofyourventuredependsonyourabilitytoiden fyandmi gatethe companykillers. Thethingthatmakescompanykillerssodeadlyisthattherearesomanyofthem.Individually, theymayseemmanageable,butcollec vely,theyrepresentatruechallengeforany entrepreneur. Forexample,supposeyoumanagetodis llyourworlddowntojusttencompanykillersand youthinkyouveeliminated90%oftheriskineachcategory: 1. Theresa90%chancethatyouveiden edagenuinemarketneed; 2. Theresa90%chancethatyouraddressablemarketisasbigasyouthinkitis;

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3. Theresa90%chancethatyoucanactuallyimplementyourinnova on; 4. Theresa90%chancethatyoucangureouthowtosellitformorethanitcostsyou tomakeit; 5. Theresa90%chancethatyouhaveassembledtherightmanagementteamtodothe job; 6. Theresa90%chancethatyoumanagetostayonestepaheadofthecompe 7. Theresa90%chancethatyoudontgetsuedintobankruptcy; 8. Theresa90%chancethatyouwontgetburiedinregulatoryredtape; 9. Theresa90%chancethatyoudontrunoutofmoney;and 10. Theresa90%chancethatnothingelsegoeswrong. Youmighttakecomfortinthefactthatanyoneoftheseriskfactorspresentsonlya10% chanceofsinkingthecompany. However,theprobabilityofsurvivingalltenriskfactors(makingatechnicalassump onthat thetenriskfactorsaresta s callyindependentofeachother1)is: 90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%=35% Thekeyinsighthereisthatacompanythatisreasonablygoodatmanagingindividualrisks mighthaveamarginalchanceofsurvivingoverall.Thatswhyreasonablygoodisntgood enoughriskmanagementmustbeamongtheentrepreneurscorecompetencies. on;

In reality, these factors are not sta s cally independent and theres probably some overlap among these factors Im just using this to illustrate a point,

so dont take these numbers literally.

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Iden fying&Mi ga ngtheCompanyKillers
Companiesatlinewhenthecashrunsoutandtotalcurrentliabili es(i.e.,billsduenow) exceedtotalliquidassets.Riskmanagementisallaboutiden fyingandmi ga ngthe uncertain esespeciallythecompanykillersthatsurroundcashows. Uncertaintyplaguesbusinessesincountlessways,butwecangroupmostcompanykillersinto thefollowingcategories:

MarketRisks Compe veRisks

Entrepreneurs are, by deni on,


Technology&Opera onalRisks FinancialRisks PeopleRisks Legal&RegulatoryRisks SystemicRisks

risk takers. Strong risk management is an important source of compe ve advantage.

Thesecategoriesareneitherexhaus venormutuallyexclusive.Somerisksspanseveral categories.Letslookatsomeexamples.

MarketRisks
Marketrisksrefertowhetherornotthereissucientdemandforwhatyouhavetooerat thepriceyouset.Manyinventorshavediedpenniless,clingingtothebeliefthatthemarket wouldbeatapathtohisdoorifhedesignedthebe ermousetrap. Fortune500companiesspendbillionsonmarketresearch,andeveryyear,theyintroduce productsthatareaninstantop.Ontheotherhand,in1943,thepresidentofIBMallegedly predicted,Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybevecomputers. Unlesswhatyousellisacommodity,thereisnoeasywaytoknowhowthemarketwill receiveanynewproduct.Feedbackfromfriends,surveysofpoten alcustomers,focusgroup tes ng,andbetates ngareallusefultechniquesforhelpingtogaugemarketacceptance. However,nobodynotyou,notyourbestfriend,notyourventurecapitalistcanknowfor surewhetherpeoplewillspendmoneyonyoursolu onun lyouactuallytrytosellit.

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Onewayforentrepreneurstomi gatemarketriskistoavoidperfec on.Itsafallacytothink thatanyproductwilleverbenishedinthesensethatitwillmakealluserscompletely happy.Whenyourproductbecomesgoodenoughtomakesomecustomersreasonably happy,getitintothemarketwhereitcanstartgenera ngcashowandfeedback. AsSteveJobsputit,Realar stsship.Un lrealcustomersstartusingandtalkingaboutyour actualproductasopposedtosomemockupyoutestinafocusgroupyouhavenoreal wayofknowingwhatyouaredoingrightandwhatyouaredoingwrong.Releaseobserve improverepeat.

Compe

veRisks
veadvantagesthanitthinks.Ifthere

Everyventurehasmorecompe torsandfewercompe

ismoneytobemadebysa sfyingapressingneedinthemarketplace(isthereanyotherway tomakemoney?),youcanbesurethatplentyofothersaregunningforthatsameconsumer dollar. Businessisacontactsport,andsomeofyourcompe torswillplayrough.Theyllcopyyour businessmodel.Theylltrytooutinnovateyou.Theylltrytooutspendyouonmarke ng. Theyllstartpricewars.Theyllstartrumorsaboutyourproduct.Theylltrytodoanendrun aroundyourpatents.Theylltrytostealyourtradesecrets.Theylltrytopoachyourbest people.Justbecauseyoureparanoid,itdoesntmeantheyrenotouttogetyou. Tostayaheadofyourcompe on,youmustcon nuouslyaskyourselfandyourtrusted

advisorswhatothersmightdototrytobeatyou,andthendevelopappropriatedefenses. KnowyourStrengths,Weaknesses,Opportuni es,andThreatsS.W.O.Tanalysisisntjusta businessschoolexercise.Figureoutwhatyoudobe erthanallofyourcompe tors whetheritbeprice,features,quality,orsomeotheradvantageandfocusonmaintaining yourleadershipinthatcategory.

Technology&Opera onalRisks
Itsonethingtosayyouregoingintothebusinessofmakingandsellingwidgets.Itsquite anotherthingtomastertheactual mechanicsofmakingandsellingwidgets. Technologyandopera onalrisksbroadlycovereverythinghavingtodowithexecu on:Can

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yourteamnalizetheproductdesignonalimitedR&Dbudget?Willyourproductworkas intended?Canyoundreliablevendors?Canyoumanufactureit?Canyouop mizethe logis csofproductdistribu on?Canyoucreateaneec veproductsupportinfrastructure? Willyourrewallpreventhackersfromstealingcustomercreditcardnumbers?Doyouhavea backupplantokeepyourcompanyrunningwhenanaccidentdestroyssomekeyequipment inyourdatacenter? Whenitcomestoexecu on,theresnosubs tuteforexperience.Itsallaboutcareful planningandwatchfulmanagementbypeoplewhoknowwhattheyredoing.Businesses startedbyrookieentrepreneursblowupdispropor onatelybecausetheydontknowhowto avoidevensomemoreobviouslandmines. Mistakesareinevitable;wealllearnfromourmistakesandbecomebe erover me. However,researchbyGompers,Kovner,Lerner,andScharfstein(Performance Persistence in Entrepreneurship,HarvardUniversity,2008)suggeststhatentrepreneurswithatrackrecord ofsuccesshaveamuchhigherprobabilityoffuturesuccess(30%)thanrst me entrepreneurs(18%).(Thepaperstudiedentrepreneurswhoraisedventurecapital,and denedsuccessashavingorregisteringforanIPO.)Learningfrompastmistakesis important,butifyoureallywanttoincreaseyourchancesofsuccess,thenndsomeco founderswhohavesucceededinthepast.

FinancialRisks
Theendoftheroadforanybusinessisrunningoutofcash.Somedays,whenyourean entrepreneur,itseemslikeallroadsleadthere. Forstartups,thebiggestnancialriskstemsfromnothavingaPlanBincaseinvestorsand lenderssayno(ordontsayyesquicklyenough).Manyentrepreneursfailbecausetheymake themistakeofbe ngeverythingonbeingabletosecureoutsidenancing. Itstruethatmanytypesofcapitalintensivebusinessesdorequiresignicantstartupfunding. Butifyourearookieentrepreneur,theoddsofndinganinvestorwillingtotakeahugerisk onyouareslim.Itmaybemoreprudenttostartabusinessthatrequiresamoremodest amountofini alfunding.Youllalsowanttohavetwoseparatebusinessplans:onefor growingthebusinessifyouhappentosucceedatndinganinvestor,andonefor bootstrappingthebusinessifyouhavetogoitalone.

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Ifyoudosucceedatraisingcapital,thenexttrickistogureouthowtostartgenera ng enoughrevenuestocoveryourcostsbeforeyourunoutofmoney.Ifyouthoughtraising capitalwastough,youreinforasurprise. Financialrisksdontdisappearonceyourbusinessisupandrunning.Anynumberofthingscan adverselyaectthecashowsofopera ngventures:Customerscandefaultonyourinvoices (creditrisk).Thecostofyourrawmaterialscouldskyrocket(commoditypricerisk).A strengtheningdollarcanreducethenetprotsfromyourinterna onalcustomers,ora weakeningdollarcanjackupthecostofyouroshoremanufacturingopera ons(exchange raterisk).Aspikeininterestratescouldraisethecostofyourworkingcapital(interestrate risk).Aplungeinthevalueofstocksorrealestateyoupledgedascollateralcouldcauseyour banktocutyourcreditlines(assetpricerisk). Entrepreneursquicklydiscoverthatitsimpossibletoraisemoneywhenyouneedit,and everybodywantstogiveyoumoneywhenyoudontneedit.Onewaytomi gatenancial andotherrisksistotakefundingwhenitsavailableandkeepingitinreserveforarainyday.

PeopleRisks
Peopleare,atthesame me,themostcrucialandleastpredictableelementofanybusiness. Therightcombina onofexperience,contacts,andtemperamentamongthefoundingteam canvastlyincreaseaventuresoddsofsuccess.Failuretorecruit,mo vate,andretainthe rightpartnerscanspelldoom. Companiesfallapartwhenitdevelopsmajorri s:whenonefac onwantstomoveoneway, whileothersseekadierentresult. Asanentrepreneur,oneofyourmostimportantresponsibili esistoestablishaclearvision andculturethattheen reteamcanrallybehind.Everybodyneedstorowinthesame direc on.Everybodyneedstobeabletotolerateeachotherforeightyhoursaweek.You mustmanagestrongegos,mediatepersonalityclashesanddisagreements,andreininrogue teammembers. Acompanyisonlyasstrongasitsweakestlink.Dontletpersonalrela onshipscloudyour judgment:youroldcollegeroommatemightbeagoodmarketer,butshemaynotbethebest persontomarketyourspecicproducttoyourspecictargetmarket.Ifyoudiscoverthata memberofyourteamisntgoingtoworkout,youneedtoxitquicklybeforethesitua on getsworse.

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Legal&RegulatoryRisks
Lawyersgetpaidthebigbuckstokeepyououtoftrouble.Sodootherspecialists,ifyou happentobeinaheavilyregulatedindustrylikepharmaceu calsorairtravel. Thelistofpossibleproblemswithlegalorregulatoryrootsisalmostendless:taxcomplica ons stemmingfromyourchoiceoflegalen tyorstateofincorpora on;disputesarisingfrom poorlystructuredagreements;lawsuitsledbyacompe torallegingmisappropria onof tradesecretsbyoneofthehotshotprogrammersyourecentlyrecruitedfromthem. Therststeptowardsmi ga nglegalandregulatoryriskistolearnenoughaboutthesubject sothatyoucanfullyappreciatewhatyoudontknow.The Entrepreneurs Guide to Business LawbyConstanceBagleyandCraigDauchyisagreatplacetostart. Thesecondstepistoretaintherighta orneysusually,oneforcorporatema ersand anotherforintellectualpropertyma ers.Youmustmanagethemeec velyandfollowtheir counselwhenitmakessense(manylegaldecisionscomewithdegreesofriskandrewardthat youneedtobalance).Finally,youmustkeepyoura orneysinformedofwhatshappeningin thebusinesssothattheycanaddresspoten alproblemsbeforetheygetoutofcontrol.

SystemicRisks
Systemicrisksarethosethatthreatentheviabilityofen remarkets,notjustasinglerm withinamarket. Forexample,risingdefaultratesinthesubprimemortgagemarket,andthesubsequent dominoeectamongnancialins tu onscreatedbylinkagesembeddedinmortgagebacked securi esandcreditdefaultswaps,havehadaprofoundimpactontheglobalnancial system. Thereareplentyoflesswidespread,butnolessreal,examples:Aspikeinthecostoffuelis squeezingtheen repassengerairlineindustry.Theavailabilityoflowcostskilledlaborin emergingeconomiesischallengingtheviabilityofmanydomes cmanufacturingbusinesses. Asuspectedcaseofmadcowdiseasecancorralbeefsalesformonthsoryears.

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Pragma cRiskManagement
Crea ngapragma criskmanagementplanisstraigh orwardinconcept,ifnotinexecu on. Prepareatablewiththefollowingsevencolumns: 1. Risk Factor:Listanythingyoucanthinkofthatcouldcausesubstan alharmtoyour business. 2. Type:Assigntherisktooneofthecategoriesdescribedabove,e.g.marketrisk,com pe ve risk, technology & opera onal risk, etc. Assigning a type can suggest who mightbebestqualiedtomanagethatpar cularrisk(forexample,yourCFOmightbe responsibleforlookinga eryourrmsnancialrisks). 3. Likelihood: Think of the rela ve likelihood of manifes ng this par cular risk factor. Simpledescriptorslikehigh,medium,andlowshouldbesucient. 4. Consequences:Describewhatwouldhappentothecompanyifthisriskfactormani festsitself. 5. Mi ga onTac cs:Listthethingsyoucandoeitherreducethelikelihoodorminimize theimpactofthe consequencesifthisriskfactor manifestsitself.Note thatjustbe causeatac cisavailable,itdoesntmeanyoushouldemployit. 6. Mi ga onCosts:Foreachmi ga ontac c,thinkabouttheimplementa oncost. 7. Status:Onceyouhaveassembledtherstsixcolumns,youneedtodecidewhichmi ga ngtac cs,ifany,youneedtoimplement.Yourchoiceswilldependonyourper sonalrisktolerancetheresnorightorwronganswer.Whateverac onsyoudotake, youshoulddocumentthemintheStatuscolumnofyourriskmanagementplan. Asyoudevelopyourriskmanagementplan,youshouldobtaininputfromyouren resenior managementteam,aswellasfromyouradvisorsandboardmembers.Weveallmade dierentmistakesandlearneddierentlessons,soitwillbehelpfultoobtainmul ple perspec ves.Likeyourbusinessplan,yourriskmanagementplanisalivingdocument.You shouldreviewandreviseitregularlyasyourcircumstancesevolve. Finally,althoughitsimportanttodevelopariskmanagementplan,youshouldntobsessover it.An cipa ngeverypossibleriskfactorisneitherpossiblenorprac cal.Thatsbecauseno ma erhowsmartweare,andnoma erhowcarefullyweassessthesitua on,wecantthink ofeverything.

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Considerthestartupsthatmanagetoa ractventurecapital:thesearepromisingrms,ush withcash,opera nginahotandgrowingmarket,runbygi edentrepreneurs,witha demonstratedabilitytomeetimportantmilestones,carefullychosenthroughahighly compe veselec onprocessbyexperiencedventurecapitalinvestors,watchedoverand mentoredbyadvisorsandBoardmemberswhohavebeenthereanddonethat.Withallof thesefactorsgoingintheirfavor,themajorityofVCbackedrmss llfail! Pragma criskmanagementisntabouttryingtoan cipateandmi gateeverypossiblesource ofrisk.Itsreallyabouttwothings:

Engagingcommonsensetorecognizeandmi gatethemostobviousrisksinacost eec vemanner,usingsomeofthetechniquesdescribedinthisar cle;and Developingacultureofrespondingtounan cipateddevelopmentsthatis,pu ngout resinacalm,ra onalway.

Dontletriskparalyzeyou.Entrepreneursare,bydeni on,risktakers.Strongrisk managementisanimportantsourceofcompe veadvantage.Youcanbeattheoddsand buildathrivingandrewardingventurebylearningtorecognizeandmi gaterisks.

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