Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in red taking cues from negative opening
in most of the Asia markets, as investors hoping for major new Federal Reserve
stimulus were disappointed. Asian markets closed mostly higher yesterday on
hopes of fresh stimulus measures ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meet.
Domestic Indices
U.S. markets ended mostly lower yesterday after the Federal Reserve cut its growth
forecasts and Chairman Ben Bernanke said the labor market had lost some steam.
Federal Reserve took the decision to extend the "Operation Twist which involves
replacing short-term securities in the Fed's bond portfolio with longer-term
securities in an effort to push already low long-term interest rates even lower. Fed
said it would expand its program to replace short-term bonds with longer-term
debt by US$267bn through the end of 2012.
Meanwhile, Indian markets rose modestly yesterday, mirroring positive global cues
and continued hopes of a policy action on the fiscal front after the presidential
elections. Investors today will watch out for the manufacturing index for May 2012
and jobless claims data for the previous week of the U.S. economy.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.2
36.8 16,897
Nifty
0.3
16.7
5,121
MID CAP
0.8
48.9
5,954
SMALL CAP
0.8
49.9
6,356
BSE HC
1.2
76.7
6,685
BSE PSU
0.6
38.4
7,002
BANKEX
0.4
47.7 11,330
AUTO
0.9
84.0
METAL
1.3
OIL & GAS
0.7
57.9
7,979
(0.4)
(23.2)
5,689
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones
Chg (%)
(0.1)
9,261
131.8 10,437
(12.9) 12,824
NASDAQ
0.0
0.7
2,930
FTSE
0.6
36.0
5,622
Markets Today
Nikkei
1.1
96.4
8,752
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,900 / 5,121 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,959 17,022 / 5,141 5,162 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,900 / 5,121 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,837 16,777 / 5,100 5,080 levels.
Hang Seng
0.5
Straits Times
0.5
13.3
2,856
(0.3)
(7.9)
2,293
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
INFY
(0.7)
(0.3)
$44.0
SENSEX
16,777
16,837
16,900
16,959
17,022
WIT
(0.2)
(0.0)
$9.1
NIFTY
5,080
5,100
5,121
5,141
5,162
IBN
(0.2)
(0.1)
$30.0
0.2
0.1
$30.9
Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs
HDB
102.2 19,519
News Analysis
FED extends Operation Twist

Airtel Nigeria pays fine for service quality
Advances / Declines
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
1,903
1,761
142
390
42,328
401
413
(12)
371
(6095)
FII Derivatives (June 20, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,097
911
186
12,068
Stock Futures
1,725
1,732
(7)
23,674
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Educomp Sol
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
153
11.3
Company
TCS
Price (`)
chg (%)
1,252
(1.7)
Sintex Inds
61
5.1
Motherson Sumi
157
(1.7)
Century Tex
289
5.0
Coal India
339
(1.5)
India Cements
85
4.6
Glenmark Pharma
368
(1.5)
Hexaware Tech
124
4.6
Torrent Power
185
(1.5)
www.angelbroking.com
NSE
Advances
1,595
897
Declines
1,136
519
146
100
Unchanged
Net Inflows (June 19, 2012)
MFs
BSE
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,904
NSE
9,316
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
FED extends Operation Twist

Fed officials cut their estimate for gross domestic product growth in 2012 to
between 1.9% and 2.4% and extended the Operation Twist program to prolong
the maturities of assets on its balance sheet.
The central bank's easing initiative Operation Twist was originally set to expire on
June 30 after swapping $400bn short-dated Treasury for longer-dated ones. The
Fed announced it plans on exchanging another US$267bn Treasury extending the
program to the end of 2012. The US markets were mostly left disappointed and
ended lower on Wednesday as they had been expecting a more robust stimulus.
Airtel Nigeria pays fine for service quality

Airtel Nigeria, subsidiary of Bharti Airtel, South Africa's MTN, Abu Dhabi's Etisalat
and local operator Globacom have paid US$3.7mn in fine imposed on them by
the country's telecom regulatory authority for poor quality of service. NCC had
penalized the before mentioned four operators in the country for poor quality of
services after a key performance indicators (KPIs) test carried out on their networks
for the months of March and April. The NCC had arrived at the decision on testing
the operators on four parameters - call set-up success rate, call completion rate,
drop call rate and traffic channel congestion. Meanwhile, the operators blame that
the bad quality of services on poorly developed infrastructure like electricity which,
they say makes it cumbersome to deliver services to subscribers. We maintain our
Neutral view on Bharti Airtel.
Economic and Political News
FDI in aviation may take long as differences with TMC persist

Government likely to slap 21% duty on imported power gear
Government to exempt 14 more services from tax
Pranab Mukherjee to preside over EGoM to discuss spectrum price today
Corporate News
Alstom T&D India receives orders worth `176cr

Educomp ties up `850cr to repay FCCBs
Fitch cuts outlook to negative for 8 banks, including SBI, ICICI
Ranbaxy ties up with Daiichi to sell drugs in Venezuela
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Global economic events release calendar

Date
June 21, 2012
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
JUN 16
386.00
383.00
Germany
Value
JUN A
45.20
45.20
Value
JUN A
(19.30)
(20.00)
US
PMI Manufacturing
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
Existing home sales
Germany
PMI Services
June 25, 2012
US
New home sales
June 26, 2012
US
Consumer Confidence
June 28, 2012
Germany
Euro Zone
Millions
MAY
4.62
4.57
Value
JUN A
51.80
51.50
MAY
343.00
345.50
JUN
64.90
64.00
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
S.A./
1985=100
Thousands
JUN
--
--
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
1Q T
1.90
1.90
% Change
1Q F
(0.10)
--
Value
JUN
50.40
--
UK
GDP (YoY)
July 01, 2012
China
PMI Manufacturing
July 02, 2012
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
MAY
3.80
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
MAY
3.20
--
UK
PMI Manufacturing
UK
BOE Announces rates
Euro Zone
Value
JUN
45.90
--
% Ratio
JUL 5
0.50
0.50
ECB announces interest rates
JUL 5
1.00
--
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
JUN
69.00
--
US
Unnemployment rate
JUN
8.20
--
July 09, 2012
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
JUN
3.00
--
July 10, 2012
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
MAY
(1.00)
--
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
JUN
15.30
--
July 12, 2012
India
% Change
MAY
0.10
--
July 13, 2012
India
% Change
JUN
7.55
--
US
Industrial Production YoY

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
JUN
(1.00)
--
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
JUN
9.60
--
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
8.10
--
July 16, 2012
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
JUN
2.40
--
July 17, 2012
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
JUN
2.80
--
US
Industrial Production
JUN
(0.09)
--
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
JUN
(0.30)
--
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
JUN
708.00
--
US
Building permits
Thousands
JUN
780.00
--
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
JUN
8.10
--
July 05, 2012
July 06, 2012
July 18, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Strategy
June 21, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
1.0
(6.0)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.8
9.4
10.0
9.9
Apr-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.2
7.6
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Imports yoy growth
60
45
30
15
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

75
May-11
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Dec-11
48.0
Nov-11
0.0
Oct-11
50.0
Sep-11
2.0
Jul-11
52.0
Jun-11
4.0
Jul-11
54.0
6.0
(15)
(3.2)
(5.0)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
9.5
0.1
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

12.0
2.7
2.5
Mar-12
(4.0)
4.1
3.4
Feb-12
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
(2.0)
3QFY10
3.0
2QFY10
1QFY10
4.0
4QFY09
2.0
Source: CSO, Angel Research
3.7
4.0
Jan-12
5.3
5.0
10.0
6.0
Dec-11
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.0
6.1
Nov-11
8.0
6.7
Oct-11
7.4
Jun-11
7.0
9.5
10.0
8.0
Sep-11
7.5
8.0
8.2
7.6
Aug-11
8.5
9.0
12.0
9.2
Jul-11
9.4
Jun-11
9.8
May-11
(%)
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
132
2,576
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
18.9
16.6
4.0
3.4
22.8
22.3
1.8
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
114
183
5,234
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.6
6.2
1.1
0.9
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
302
345
2,578
2,715
3,041
15.3
15.3
29.2
32.8
10.4
9.2
2.4
1.9
26.0
23.3
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
77
100
3,899
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.4
5.8
1.2
1.0
19.7
18.4
0.4
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
33
6,678
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.4
8.4
2.1
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
455
514
688
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.1
8.0
2.3
1.9
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,535
1,835
44,425
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
13.3
12.1
5.3
4.2
45.0
38.9
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
304
372
7,087
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
13.6
11.5
2.6
2.2
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,942
9,429
28,078
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.3
19.0
5.0
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
94
164
321
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.4
2.3
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Accumulate
134
146
11,411
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
18.9
15.0
3.3
2.8
18.6
20.3
1.6
1.3
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,466
1,594
2,436
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.4
11.0
2.7
2.2
24.0
21.9
1.3
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
2,033
2,221
40,589
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
14.5
13.7
6.8
5.3
54.8
43.3
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
85
135
348
7,950
8,904
5.5
6.0
25.1
38.6
3.4
2.2
0.4
0.3
12.1
16.4
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
695
821
42,647
36,010
40,882
10.0
10.0
47.7
53.3
14.6
13.0
2.9
2.5
21.3
20.6
0.9
0.8
Maruti
Buy
1,078
1,510
31,156
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
12.5
10.7
1.8
1.6
15.3
15.5
0.5
0.4
Motherson Sumi
Buy
157
216
6,143
23,342
26,366
7.8
8.2
13.3
18.0
11.8
8.7
2.8
2.2
26.2
28.4
0.4
0.4
Subros
Buy
31
36
186
1,244
1,402
8.4
8.3
4.5
5.1
6.9
6.1
0.7
0.7
9.9
11.0
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
246
299
65,455 189,676 210,905
12.5
12.6
39.8
45.2
6.2
5.4
2.5
2.1
44.3
41.6
0.4
0.3
TVS Motor
Buy
33
44
1,577
7,690
8,459
6.1
6.0
5.0
5.5
6.7
6.0
1.2
1.1
19.0
18.6
0.2
0.1
ABB*
Sell
782
498
16,563
8,760
10,023
7.6
7.5
18.2
20.7
42.9
37.7
5.8
5.2
14.4
14.6
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
290
2,091
4,195
4,837
11.0
11.0
30.1
32.4
9.6
9.0
1.7
1.5
18.4
17.6
1.0
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
215
52,623
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.1
8.9
1.8
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Neutral
165
1,482
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
9.6
16.2
17.2
10.2
3.4
2.7
20.7
29.7
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
119
142
7,659
12,451
14,265
7.9
8.3
8.0
9.5
15.0
12.6
2.0
1.8
13.9
14.9
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
39
67
317
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.6
2.9
0.5
0.4
13.7
14.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
55
73
1,406
6,686
7,200
8.5
8.8
10.6
12.2
5.2
4.5
1.0
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,612
1,992
1,816
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
11.2
9.7
1.9
1.7
17.4
18.4
0.3
0.2
Thermax
Neutral
463
5,516
5,514
5,559
9.8
9.6
29.7
28.4
15.6
16.3
2.9
2.6
20.2
16.9
0.9
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,271
23,864
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
18.0
15.7
3.1
2.8
18.0
19.0
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
175
26,987
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
17.3
16.6
3.4
3.1
18.5
19.4
2.2
1.8
India Cements
Neutral
85
2,622
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
8.7
6.8
0.7
0.7
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
64
79
786
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.4
4.0
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
153
3,636
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
10.5
9.0
1.5
1.3
15.6
16.0
1.7
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,661
9,272
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
17.6
12.0
4.2
3.6
21.6
25.8
1.4
1.1
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,431
39,209
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.4
14.7
2.7
2.4
16.8
17.4
1.9
1.8
196
273
1,032
2,014
2,293
22.4
22.4
22.6
26.7
8.7
7.4
0.9
0.8
11.4
11.9
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
255
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.5
4.9
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
19
1,168
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.7)
(24.7)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
124
166
4,106
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
8.2
7.3
1.2
1.1
16.1
15.8
2.7
2.5
ITNL
Buy
183
265
3,551
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
8.3
6.9
1.2
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
49
61
1,307
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
19.3
10.7
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
71
88
15,172
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.2
5.0
16.8
14.3
1.4
1.3
8.5
9.3
2.3
2.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,342
1,553
82,226
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
19.0
17.6
2.8
2.5
16.1
15.3
1.5
1.3
Madhucon Proj
Buy
35
70
259
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
7.6
7.5
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Accumulate
39
41
994
5,453
6,169
8.1
8.5
1.6
1.9
23.6
20.1
0.4
0.4
1.8
2.1
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
90
630
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.4
6.2
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
47
1,548
11,592
12,993
8.4
8.4
1.8
3.2
25.9
14.6
0.5
0.5
2.0
3.4
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
136
182
2,043
2,789
3,147
10.6
10.7
8.4
10.4
16.1
13.0
2.2
1.9
15.0
15.6
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
208
265
1,030
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.5
29.4
8.9
7.1
0.8
0.7
9.6
11.0
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
143
7,170
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.8
3.4
0.7
0.6
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
116
6,463
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
5.2
4.5
0.8
0.7
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,003
1,476
41,547
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.6
7.2
1.6
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
680
925
26,623
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.3
4.5
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
341
389
19,546
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.5
4.8
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
49
53
2,874
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.2
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
409
493
18,110
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.9
4.4
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
78
5,745
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.7
3.8
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
411
468
6,091
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Accumulate
96
107
3,373
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
4.1
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
428
7,323
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.6
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
642
95,262
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
20.3
16.9
4.1
3.6
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
535
567
125,730
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
18.9
15.1
3.6
3.1
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
833
1,174
95,779
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.3
10.3
1.5
1.4
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
89
113
11,435
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
174
190
7,474
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
4.2
4.0
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
Neutral
89
7,105
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.5
4.1
0.6
0.6
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Neutral
929
4,504
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.3
5.0
1.0
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
253
286
12,776
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
10.4
8.3
1.9
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
238
262
6,932
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.4
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
754
1,041
25,588
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.9
4.3
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
2,650
1,440
1,635
2.7
2.5
3.8
4.1
6.2
5.7
1.2
1.1
19.9
18.6
St Bk of India
Buy
2,117
2,469
142,040
68,311
79,649
3.6
3.6
230.4
273.4
9.2
7.7
1.5
1.3
18.2
18.8
Syndicate Bank
Buy
101
126
6,053
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
74
4,906
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.4
4.1
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
204
261
11,250
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.8
4.1
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
62
78
2,229
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.3
2.7
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
59
2,911
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.5
4.8
0.8
0.7
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
332
450
11,750
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.8
8.0
2.1
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,887
37,288
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
31.0
26.2
10.5
8.3
38.0
35.4
3.2
2.7
524
633
6,257
5,835
6,824
6.3
6.7
20.7
27.5
25.3
19.0
9.9
7.4
42.7
44.3
1.0
0.9
1,113
15,141
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
38.2
43.8
29.1
25.5
34.7
27.3
130.2
119.9
4.9
4.3
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
110
19,163
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
26.5
22.4
9.6
7.9
39.3
42.0
3.2
2.8
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,602
10,944
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
25.3
21.1
7.8
6.3
34.0
32.9
3.2
2.6
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
556
18,924
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.4
20.5
6.7
5.4
31.3
38.4
3.3
2.8
HUL
Neutral
455
98,273
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
32.2
27.7
24.1
18.8
82.7
76.2
3.6
3.1
ITC
Neutral
246
192,529
29,638
34,159
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.9
26.4
22.6
8.5
6.9
35.3
33.8
6.3
5.4
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
175
11,295
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
26.4
21.6
7.1
5.5
30.0
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,587
44,226
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.5
31.0
23.6
16.1
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
106
136
6,570
7,011
7,711
9.7
10.0
6.3
7.5
17.0
14.2
1.6
1.6
9.5
10.9
0.8
0.8
HCL Tech
Buy
487
560
33,730
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
12.9
11.3
2.8
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.4
1.2
Hexaware
Accumulate
124
128
3,680
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.7
11.6
2.9
2.5
23.7
22.5
1.7
1.4
Infosys
Accumulate
2,471
2,792
141,872
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.6
14.2
3.5
3.0
22.5
20.8
3.1
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
158
177
1,755
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.4
8.5
1.3
1.1
13.6
13.2
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
110
1,951
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
12.2
9.6
2.2
1.8
19.3
18.7
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
76
86
8,967
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
10.2
9.6
1.3
1.2
13.2
12.3
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
614
2,497
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.4
10.5
2.1
1.8
18.9
17.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Accumulate
352
373
7,394
5,608
5,964
17.7
17.3
35.5
36.8
9.9
9.6
1.4
1.2
13.9
12.6
0.8
0.7
NIIT
Buy
42
52
693
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.9
4.8
1.0
0.9
16.7
18.4
0.5
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
378
1,511
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
10.2
9.4
1.6
1.4
15.4
14.5
1.0
0.9
TCS
Neutral
1,252
245,054
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.8
17.7
6.1
4.9
30.5
27.7
4.1
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
685
725
8,732
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
9.0
8.3
1.8
1.5
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.3
Wipro
Accumulate
400
452
98,398
43,150
48,541
20.0
20.5
25.9
30.1
15.4
13.3
3.0
2.5
19.1
19.0
1.9
1.6
D B Corp
Buy
195
269
3,569
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.4
12.1
3.2
2.7
24.1
24.4
2.0
1.7
HT Media
Buy
98
148
2,291
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
10.8
9.2
1.4
1.2
13.4
13.8
0.6
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
85
137
2,680
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.1
9.3
3.7
3.3
34.6
37.7
1.7
1.6
PVR
Neutral
150
390
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.1
9.5
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
278
10,950
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
13.3
11.6
3.1
2.6
26.0
25.1
3.9
3.1
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
459
9,751
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.6
7.8
1.2
1.1
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Neutral
338
213,619
68,841
74,509
25.3
25.3
24.1
26.1
14.1
13.0
3.9
3.2
30.4
26.8
2.3
1.9
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
17
22
588
1,984
2,074
11.2
12.6
2.0
2.7
8.4
6.3
0.3
0.1
4.2
5.5
0.5
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
122
139
51,401
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.2
7.3
1.6
1.4
21.2
19.9
2.0
1.5
Hindalco
Neutral
122
23,434
83,463
91,313
9.0
9.9
13.7
18.1
9.0
6.8
0.7
0.6
7.9
9.6
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
649
14,476
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.7
7.3
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Accumulate
268
296
4,500
1,007
1,091
56.6
56.9
29.4
31.9
9.1
8.4
1.6
1.4
19.0
18.2
2.3
1.8
Monnet Ispat
Buy
355
447
2,283
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
6.0
5.3
0.8
0.7
15.6
15.3
1.5
1.1
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
60
54
15,451
174
187
68,966
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
8,474
9,024
12.6
16.2
11,959
13,062
78.2
78.6
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
2.6
3.6
23.4
16.7
1.3
1.2
19.1
20.9
9.1
8.3
2.2
1.9
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.3
27.1
24.4
3.6
3.1
1.1
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
SAIL
Neutral
92
37,794
50,914
60,785
14.6
15.1
9.4
10.5
9.7
8.7
0.9
0.8
9.2
9.6
1.2
Sesa Goa
Buy
182
206
15,852
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.1
4.1
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
97
123
32,682
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.9
5.1
0.7
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
427
499
41,456 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.9
6.5
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
334
372
63,713
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.5
6.9
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.9
2.1
GAIL
Buy
339
389
43,001
50,472
55,502
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.6
9.2
1.7
1.5
19.0
17.2
0.1
ONGC
Buy
273
321
233,308 156,331 159,043
37.7
36.3
31.3
32.6
8.7
8.4
1.5
1.4
18.7
17.3
1.2
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
738
897
241,531 316,404 319,119
11.2
12.0
63.5
68.7
11.6
10.7
1.2
1.1
11.7
11.4
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
56
91
1,046
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
8.4
6.1
2.0
1.6
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
107
156
3,100
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
7.7
7.2
0.9
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.7
0.6
Aventis*
Neutral
2,126
4,895
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.4
20.4
4.0
3.1
18.6
17.0
3.1
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
744
953
15,227
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.2
14.6
4.4
3.5
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
309
379
24,778
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
18.7
16.3
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,590
26,969
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
19.0
17.1
3.9
3.3
22.4
21.0
2.6
2.3
Dishman Pharma
Buy
58
92
472
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
6.4
5.2
0.5
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,027
17,169
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.7
24.6
7.7
6.7
30.8
29.0
5.5
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
55
82
509
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
7.5
6.2
1.1
0.9
15.9
16.3
0.9
0.7
Ipca labs
Buy
346
435
4,348
2,850
3,474
20.3
20.3
26.6
32.7
13.0
10.6
3.3
2.7
28.2
27.9
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
526
647
23,482
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
17.7
16.2
4.6
3.7
27.0
25.2
2.7
2.1
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
113
178
796
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
6.8
5.1
0.6
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.0
0.8
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
485
20,491
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
13.6
16.3
5.1
4.2
43.1
28.1
1.7
1.6
Sun Pharma
Neutral
605
62,284
9,272
11,080
38.6
38.0
22.7
22.6
26.6
26.8
4.5
3.9
17.9
15.6
5.0
3.9
CESC
Buy
278
342
3,478
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.2
5.7
0.7
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
62
77
933
1,557
1,573
28.8
28.5
10.4
10.9
6.0
5.7
0.6
0.6
10.4
10.2
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Accumulate
150
158
123,435
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
12.0
10.6
1.5
1.4
13.0
13.5
2.4
2.2
46
78
1,362
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.5
3.6
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.4
2.5
186
31,659
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.5
13.9
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
73
115
3,067
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.4
2.9
0.3
0.3
8.4
9.1
3.1
2.3
MLIFE
Buy
311
376
1,271
814
897
26.9
27.0
31.3
33.9
9.9
9.2
1.0
0.9
10.2
10.1
1.9
1.7
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
311
117,989
80,961
86,705
33.5
34.0
17.2
20.8
18.1
15.0
2.1
1.8
11.5
12.3
2.2
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
77
25,401
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
23.8
16.2
1.8
1.6
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
64
13,230
22,288
23,871
32.1
32.7
4.4
6.0
14.5
10.7
0.4
0.3
2.4
3.2
2.0
1.7
Telecom
zOthers
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
189
246
1,879
3,569
4,172
8.6
9.2
17.3
22.3
10.9
8.4
2.3
2.0
22.9
25.3
0.5
0.4
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,429
1,628
3,036
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
23.6
15.8
4.8
3.9
22.0
27.3
1.6
1.3
CRISIL
Neutral
1,075
7,543
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.3
26.9
14.2
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
251
288
317
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
8.7
7.8
1.8
1.5
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Force Motors
Buy
443
680
577
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
8.7
7.2
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Finolex Cables
Buy
41
61
628
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
5.4
4.0
0.7
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Goodyear India
Buy
319
374
735
1,511
1,692
7.9
9.0
31.5
41.3
10.1
7.7
2.0
1.7
21.2
23.5
0.3
0.2
Graphite India
Buy
88
124
1,724
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.1
6.3
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
0.9
0.8
HEG
Buy
204
242
815
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
9.1
6.2
0.9
0.8
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.0
Hitachi
Buy
114
160
263
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
11.3
7.2
1.4
1.2
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation
Accumulate
2,513
2,674
2,221
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
21.6
17.9
3.1
2.6
15.5
15.9
1.3
1.1
INEOS ABS India
Accumulate
716
777
1,259
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
20.1
15.7
2.9
2.5
15.4
17.2
1.2
1.0
ITD Cementation
Accumulate
221
236
255
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.1
5.8
0.6
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Buy
222
268
1,788
1,315
1,568
8.6
11.1
6.4
10.9
34.8
20.4
2.9
2.8
8.4
13.9
1.7
1.4
MCX
Buy
1,017
1,598
5,187
610
702
65.5
67.0
67.9
79.9
15.0
12.7
4.4
3.7
29.1
28.9
5.6
4.3
MRF
Buy
10,187
13,106
4,320
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
7.6
6.2
1.5
1.2
16.5
17.4
0.5
0.5
Greenply Industries
Buy
202
309
488
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
6.8
4.6
1.1
0.9
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
2,859
3,188
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
30.1
23.6
15.7
12.7
57.4
59.5
3.6
2.8
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
465
558
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
10.4
8.8
2.5
2.0
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Sintex Industries
Buy
61
79
1,660
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.5
3.9
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
261
392
245
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
3.9
3.3
0.8
0.6
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Buy
33
40
1,594
5,647
6,513
3.5
6.5
1.9
4.9
16.9
6.7
39.8
5.8
0.4
0.3
TVS Srichakra
Buy
314
462
241
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.4
3.4
1.3
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
TAJ GVK
Buy
59
108
372
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.5
6.5
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
PER(x)
FY13E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
341
420
526
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
5.4
4.7
0.8
0.7
16.1
16.1
0.3
0.1
United Spirits
Accumulate
674
730
8,811
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
21.7
15.7
1.7
1.5
8.1
10.3
1.5
1.4
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
375
413
761
628
716
16.4
16.5
29.8
34.4
12.6
10.9
2.2
1.9
18.8
18.6
1.0
0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 20, 2012
Market Outlook
June 21, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

June 21, 2012

OIL & GAS

FED extends Operation Twist

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

FII Derivatives (June 20, 2012)

Net Inflows (June 19, 2012)

FED extends Operation Twist

Airtel Nigeria pays fine for service quality

Economic and Political News

FDI in aviation may take long as differences with TMC persist

Alstom T&D India receives orders worth `176cr

Global economic events release calendar

June 21, 2012

Initial Jobless claims

June 25, 2012

New home sales

June 26, 2012

June 28, 2012

Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

July 01, 2012

July 02, 2012

BOE Announces rates

ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

July 09, 2012

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

July 10, 2012

Industrial Production (YoY)

July 12, 2012

July 13, 2012

Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

July 16, 2012

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

July 17, 2012

Consumer price index (mom)

Jobless claims change

July 05, 2012

July 06, 2012

July 18, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

65,455 189,676 210,905