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The Thomas Campaign The Mellman Group, Inc. With Sufficient Funds To Get His Message Out, Trevor Thomas Is Well-Positioned To Beat Steve Pestka In Michigans Third Congressional District June 19, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 Democratic primary voters representing the likely 2012Democratic primary electorate in Michigans 3rd Congressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone June 14 to June 17, 2012, using a registration-based sample. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Trevor Thomas is well-placed to defeat Steve Pestka, in Michigans 3rd Congressional District in what begins as a close race with a huge number of undecided voters. Thomas comes to the race from a career outside of politics, so he will need to build his public image and introduce himself to the Districts voters, but Pestka also starts out the race with a low profile and suffers from a number of vulnerabilities revealed by our poll. Our poll confirms Thomas has a powerful set of messages at his disposal if he can raise the funds to get that message out. Thomas Is Better-Liked Than Pestka Among Those Who Know Each Though he is somewhat more widely known, Pestkas hard name identification extends to less than half of the Districts primary voters (40% hard name ID). Pestka is reasonably well-liked by those who know him, with 27% saying they view him favorably, while 13% view him unfavorably. Newcomer Thomas is less well known, with a hard name ID of 23%, but he is much more favorably viewed than Pestka among those who While Both Currently Have Low Profiles, Thomas Is know him. Nineteen Better-Liked Than Pestka percent (19%) view Thomas favorably, while Favorability (rank ordered by mean) Mean Ratio Hard ID just 4% view him unfavorably. As a result, 19% Thomas enjoys a ratio of 3.17 4.75 23% favorable-to-unfavorable Thomas ratings of 4.75-to-1 while 4% Pestkas ratio is a much favorable lower 2.08-to-1. unfavorable
27% Pestka 13%

2.78 2.08 40%

Thomas Takes A Large Lead Over Pestka In An Informed Trial Heat Whats more, our poll provides clear evidence that

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The Mellman Group, Inc. Thomas can move into a substantial lead if he has the resources to communicate his message. We first asked voters the standard headto-head question, and the results reflect Pestkas current advantage in name recognition, with Pestka garnering 21% of the vote to Thomas 16% -- nearly two-thirds of primary voters (64%) are undecided at this point.

Page 2 In A Fairly Worded, Informed Head-To-Head Matchup, Thomas Takes A Large Lead Over Pestka
Trevor Thomas, from Grand Rapids, is a former news reporter for WOOD-TV and state official, who worked on Michigans No Worker Left Behind program, which provides two years of free education or training to those thrown out of work by the recession. A graduate of Grand Valley State University, Thomas was the first in his family to go to college. His parents and grandparents worked the factory lines in Grand Rapids and he has never forgotten his middle class roots. Thomas will focus on helping working families, cutting government spending, reducing taxes on middle-class families, and ensuring big business and the wealthiest pay their fair share to balance our budget. Hell fight to preserve Social Security and Medicare, create jobs in Michigan and ensure our veterans get what theyve earned. Thomas opponents say he is out of touch with this areas values. Thomas, who supports abortion, spent much of his career working for the gay rights lobby. Steve Pestka, from Cascade Township, has devoted his life to public service as county commissioner, state representative, state senator, and small businessman. The first in his family to graduate from college, Pestkas values --- respect for hard work, fairness, and opportunity for all --- were shaped by his family and his West Michigan upbringing. Pestka graduated from East Grand Rapids High School, went on to college and law school before being appointed a judge by Governor Granholm. Pestka will fight to help West Michigan families get good jobs with a decent wage. He is proud to be the labor candidate in this race having been endorsed by the UAW, the Michigan Education Association and many other unions. Pestka will fight for middle class families. Pestkas opponents say he wants to make abortion illegal even in cases of rape and incest and Pestka admits that he could, quote, easily be a Republican. Unquote.

Pestka Thomas
16%

21% 24% 46%

+3 Net: +27 +30

However, in an informed 64% Undec trial heat pitting a 25% description of Pestka 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 3 initial post-message against a description of Thomas, Thomas gains an additional 30 percentage points in support (+30 to 46%), while Pestka adds just 3 percentage points to his total, ending up with an anemic 24% (30% undecided). Thus Thomas ends up with a commanding 22-point lead after basic information is presented about both candidates. We also tested a battery of potential Thomas messages and found that he enjoys an unusually strong set of very convincing arguments he can make on his own behalf. With those powerful message points and his demonstrated ability to overcome Pestkas initial lead when voters hear equally from both sides, Thomas has a fantastic opportunity to win this race assuming that he can raise enough money to get his message out.