Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA.

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http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? June 27, 2012 The second half risk / reward for the US capital markets 10-Year Note (1.636) Beginning next week we should have a quarterly value level around 2.00% with weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels around 1.50%. This suggests that we should not see new all time low yields in the second half of 2012. My annual value level is 2.502%. Comex Gold ($1574.0) The second half of 2012 will remain under the influence of my annual pivot at $1575.8 the Troy ounce. It appears that a monthly pivot will be at the base of the busted bubble around $1525.0. Semiannual and quarterly risky levels are projected to be around $1650.0 and $1800.0. My call is that a new all time high is will not occur in the second half of the year. Nymex Crude Oil ($79.38) Oil appears to have significant downside risk to $50 per barrel or lower. This projection is difficult because major risky levels begin at my annual level at $103.58. Looking at the charts the 120-month simple moving average is $67.37 with the 200-week at $80.51. The Euro (1.2495) appears vulnerable in the second half down to the June 2010 low at 1.1880. With only three trading days left before I calculate new weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semiannual value levels, pivots and risky levels, the current levels loose their effectiveness. The annual levels will be with us for the remainder of the year. It appears that for the major equity averages I will have weekly and semiannual value levels with monthly and quarterly risky levels without any nearby pivots. My first neutral zone is between my annual value level at 12,312 Dow Industrials and my annual risky level at 1363.2 S&P 500. A lower annual value level is 2698 on NASDAQ with annual risky level at 836.15 on the Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (12,535) My annual pivot remains at 12,312 with the October 2007 high at 14,198. A monthly risky level appears to form around 13,250 below the 2012 high with risk to a semiannual value level around the 10,500 area. S&P 500 (1320.0) My annual pivot remains at 1363.2. My semiannual value level is projected to form around 1020.0. NASDAQ (2854) My annual value level remains at 2698. A new 2012 high appears unlikely. Dow Transports (5003) A projected semiannual value level is around 4300 with a new all time high unlikely. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. Russell 2000 (765.02) A projected semiannual value level is around 670.00 with a new all time high unlikely. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011. VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D