Latin America Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey May 2012

Market Insight
Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels inaugural Latin America Hotel

Investor Sentiment Survey highlights investors hotel
performance outlook, reveals investors targeted investment
yields and investment strategies, and ranks the key constraints
to investment for 18 markets across Latin America.
Latin America Hotel
Investor Sentiment Survey
May 2012
Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels know how
Contributors
Clay B. Dickinson
Executive Vice President
Latin America Region
+1 202 719 6225
clay.dickinson@am.jll.com
Ricardo Mader
South America
+55 11 3071 0747
ricardo.mader@am.jll.com
Fernando Garcia-Chacon
Mexico/Caribbean/Central America
+1 305 529 6342
fernando.chacon@am.jll.com
Lauro Ferroni
Vice President
Americas Research
+1 312 228 2566
lauro.ferroni@am.jll.com
Jores Larg La3a||e lole|s |s a g|ooa| rea| eslale serv|ces lrr locused exc|us|ve|y or role|s & rosp|la||ly. we prov|de acqu|s|l|or ard lrarc|rg
advice, valuations, investment sales and asset management for luxury hotels, select service and budget hotels, smaller hotels and pubs, from
single assets to large portfolios and mixed-use developments.
lr lre |asl lve years We corp|eled rear|y 1,000 adv|sory ard va|ual|or ass|grrerls ard rore sa|e, purcrase ard lrarc|rg lrarsacl|ors lrar ary
olrer role|s rea| eslale lrr |r lre Wor|d.Worlr over S30 o||||or. w|lr 11 ollces |r 20 courlr|es ard 25 role|s rea| eslale experls, ro olrer lrr |s
oeller correcled. Trrougr our deplr ard oreadlr ol researcr ard exper|erce, W|lr Z5 Researcr Reporls eacr year, We |roW lre rar|el al every
|eve|, We |roW lre p|ayers ard We |roW roW lo gel resu|ls.
WWW.jores|arg|asa||erole|s.cor
Latin America Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey May 2012 1
Latin America Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey
Highlights from the survey
Investors outlook for hotel performance fundamentals across Latin
Arer|ca |s exceed|rg|y pos|l|ve, W|lr resporderls rosl ou|||sr or
Mexico City, Brazilian metropolitan areas, Los Cabos and Cancun/
Riviera Maya.
Respondents targeted capitalization rate (initial yield) for the
acqu|s|l|or ol ar |rlerral|ora|-grade role| averages 10.2 across
Latin America.
lole| assels |r galeWay rar|els represerl lre o|ggesl 'ouy' largels;
lre r|gresl serl|rerl lo 'ou||d' reW role|s |s reporled lor secordary
c|l|es; lre survey suggesls a cors|derao|e |rcrease |r lre ruroer ol
|rveslors rev|eW|rg deve|oprerl leas|o|||ly |r rar|els ouls|de ol lre
countries capital cities.
3urg|rg rore-groWr derard |s draral|ca||y ooosl|rg lre
performance of the lodging industry across Latin America, creating
ar allracl|ve erv|rorrerl lor groWlr.
Hotel performance outlook exceedingly positive
Hotel investors have a positive outlook for hotel performance across
most markets in Latin America. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels computed
the net balance of investors responses to measure respondents
serl|rerl W|lr regard lo lre oul|oo| lor role| perlorrarce, as delred
by revenue per available room (RevPAR).
Net ba|ance methodo|ogy dened
Jores Larg La3a||e lole|s surveyed resporderls or Wrelrer
they have a positive, negative, or neutral outlook for RevPAR
across 18 Lal|r Arer|car role| rar|els. Resporses Wr|cr
|rd|caled a 'pos|l|ve oul|oo| Were g|ver a score ol 100;
resporses |rd|cal|rg a 'regal|ve oul|oo| Were ass|gred a score
ol -100; ard resporses expecl|rg 'ro crarge |r role| RevPAR
Were prov|ded a score ol 0. Tre scores Were lrer added
together to compute a net balance. A r|grer rel oa|arce lgure
|rp||es a rore opl|r|sl|c |rveslor oul|oo|, Wr||e a regal|ve rel
balance indicates that more investors expect performance to
decline than to increase during the given time period.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Argentina
Chile
Brazil
Peru
Colombia
Central America
Mexico
Next six months Nexl lWo years
Net balance of investors hotel performance expectations
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
2 Latin America Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey May 2012
Resporses sroW lral arorg courlr|es |r Lal|r Arer|ca, |rveslors
have the most optimistic hotel performance outlook for Brazil, both for
lre rexl s|x rorlrs ard lWo-year l|re lrare due lo roousl ous|ress
demand amid a constrained supply environment and upcoming events
sucr as lre 2011 FlFA 3occer wor|d Cup.
The net balance of positive hotel performance expectations is at
the second highest level for Mexico, supported by the countrys
ameliorating economic outlook. In Mexico, the net balance of survey
resporderls' perlorrarce oul|oo| |s 51.9 lor lre rexl s|x rorlrs, ard
Z5.5 lor lre rexl lWo years, |rp|y|rg lral |rveslors oe||eve lre rar|el
W||| see cors|derao|e groWlr.
Co|oro|a garrered lre rexl r|gresl perlorrarce expeclal|ors, W|lr
lre rel oa|arce ol pos|l|ve perlorrarce reacr|rg jusl urder 0
lor oolr lre rexl s|x rorlrs ard lWo years. lrveslors a|so rave ar
overWre|r|rg|y pos|l|ve perlorrarce oul|oo| lor role| assels |r Peru,
driven by the performance outlook for Lima.
Responses indicated a positive hotel performance outlook for hotels in
Cr||e, oul lre oul|oo| |s rolao|y |ess lavorao|e Wrer corpared lo olrer
rajor ecoror|es |r 3oulr Arer|ca. Tre rale ol role| derard groWlr al
Cr||ear role|s ras gerera||y oeer soreWral oe|oW lre |eve|s recorded
across markets in Brazil and Mexico.
lrveslors' resporses lor Argerl|ra Were |ess erlrus|asl|c, |r parl|cu|ar
for the next six months: The net balance of investor performance
oul|oo| serl|rerl Was - 10.9, rear|rg lral a grealer srare ol
respondents expects RevPAR to decline than to increase. For the
lWo-year l|re lrare, lre |rveslor oul|oo| Was |arge|y ore ol lal
perlorrarce. Tre resporses lor Argerl|ra relecl lral lre courlry's
ecorory |s sel lo rar| a s|oWdoWr lo||oW|rg lWo years ol r|gr groWlr,
ard lrere |s r|s| lral e|evaled |rlal|or W||| rarper ous|ress |rveslrerl
and consumption.
Capitals and large secondary markets command most favorable
performance outlook
The country by country performance expectations summarized in
the previous section represent an average of the responses for each
rar|el W|lr|r lre respecl|ve courlr|es. Tre lo||oW|rg crarl dela||s lre
responses for each individual market contained in the survey.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Mexico City
Guadalajara, Monterrey
Los Cabos, Cancun/Riviera Maya
All Other Mexico
Panama City
Resorts - Costa Rica/Panama
Bogot
Cartagena
All Other Colombia
Lima
All Other Peru
Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo
Brazil Metros 3-6 Million Residents
All Other Brazil
Santiago
All Other Chile
Buenos Aires
All Other Argentina
Mexico
Central America
Colombia
Peru
Brazil
Chile
Argentina
0l lre 18 rar|els |r lre survey, Vex|co C|ly ard 8raz||'s relros W|lr
three to six million residents exhibited the most optimistic outlook. The
rel oa|arce ol |rveslor serl|rerl lor Vex|co C|ly |s Z.9 lor lre rexl
s|x rorlrs ard 100.0 lor lre lWo-year per|od, rear|rg lral every
resporderl lo lre survey expecls role| RevPAR lo groW |r Vex|co C|ly
dur|rg lre rexl lWo years, allr|oulao|e lo slrorg ous|ress derard ar|d
a relatively constrained supply pipeline due to the high barriers to entry
in the citys prime hotel submarkets.
lrveslors are a|so ou|||sr or lre RevPAR groWlr polerl|a| lor 8raz|||ar
urban centers, in particular the next-largest cities after So Paulo
and Rio de Janeiro, such as Fortaleza, Braslia, Recife, Manaus and
Curitiba.
Summarizing investors responses by type of market also yields a
corpe|||rg p|clure. wr||e |rveslors rave opl|r|sl|c perlorrarce
expectations for hotels across the board, the highest results on a
rel oa|arce oas|s Were garrered lor lre respecl|ve courlr|es' |arge
secordary rar|els. wr||e lre groWlr polerl|a| lor Lal|r Arer|car
capital cities has been much talked about, respondents evidenced just
roW ou|||sr lrey are or c|l|es lral rar| |r s|ze ard |rporlarce aller lre
courlr|es' cap|la|s/|ey galeWay c|l|es.
Another interesting data point compiled from survey respondents is
lre cors|derao|e spread oelWeer lre s|x-rorlr ard lWo-year oul|oo|
for the rest of country categorythe net balance of performance
expeclal|ors |r lre lWo-year l|re lrare |s 51., sore 20 po|rls
above the six-month outlook. This suggests that investors expect hotel
RevPAR lo groW al a corparal|ve|y r|grer rale ouls|de ol lre |arge
Latin Americas cities over the medium term, suggesting the feasibility
for branded limited service hotels in a number of markets currently not
served by international-grade hotel stock.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Rest of country
Large secondary cities
Cap|la|s/|ey galeWays
Attributable to the relative maturity of the citys real estate market,
Vex|co C|ly exr|o|led lre |oWesl cap rale expeclal|or, al 8.1, or
185 oas|s po|rls oe|oW lre Lal|r Arer|ca average. Tre expecled cap
rale lor |rlerral|ora|-grade role| acqu|s|l|ors |r 3ao Pau|o ard R|o de
Jare|ro averaged 8.Z, or 150 oas|s po|rls oe|oW lre Lal|r Arer|ca
average. Tre rexl-|oWesl largel cap rale Was reporled lor Los Caoos
ard Carcur/R|v|era Vaya al 9.1.
Tre cap|la|s |r Peru ard Cr||e rar| rexl, al 9.Z. 8raz||'s relros W|lr
lrree lo s|x r||||or res|derls garrered a cap rale largel ol 10.2 as
lrere rave oeer leW reporled role| lrarsacl|ors |r lrese c|l|es lo sel
the market. Due to a higher level of perceived risk, investors target cap
rale lor 8ueros A|res averaged 10..
Tre survey dala a||oWs lor lre re|al|ve oercrrar||rg ol cap rales ard
comparisons among cities, clusters of cities, or countries. For example,
survey responses suggest a 130 basis point cap rate premium in
Mexico City compared to Guadalajara/Monterrey. Similarly, investors
largel a 110 oas|s po|rl cap rale prer|ur lor a role| acqu|s|l|or |r
Cartagena or Bogot versus the rest of Colombia.
Cap rate expectations lowest for gateway markets
3urvey resporderls |rd|caled lre|r y|e|d requ|rererls lor 18 rar|els
across Latin America markets. Respondents targeted capitalization rate
(|r|l|a| y|e|d) lor lre acqu|s|l|or ol ar |rlerral|ora|-grade role| over lre
rexl s|x rorlrs averaged 10.2 accord|rg lo lre survey.
Investors' lowest capitalization rate (initial yield) by market
Note: pertains to institutional-grade full service hotel assets
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LoWest capitalization rate (initial yield)
Latin America average
Resorl rar|els |r Cosla R|ca ard Parara are sl||| assoc|aled W|lr a
grealer degree ol r|s| as lour|sl derard |eve|s rera|r oe|oW prev|ous
pea| |eve|s; |rveslors accord|rg|y requ|re a relurr ol al |easl 22.8 lo
invest in these markets according to the survey.
Tre resporses |rp|y lral |rveslors rave a . percerlage po|rl |oWer
ur|everaged lRR requ|rererl lor 3ao Pau|o ard R|o de Jare|ro versus
non-urban areas in the rest of the country, indicating that there are large
spreads ever W|lr|r courlr|es. 0lrer corparal|ve dala po|rls ol role
|rc|ude, lor exarp|e, lral |rveslors say lrey requ|re ar ur|everaged
IRR of 2.4 percentage points higher in Buenos Aires as compared to
Santiago due to the additional tier of perceived market risk.
Capitals/key gateway cities are buy targets; secondary cities are
market to build
3urvey resporderls Were as|ed lo |rd|cale lre|r pr|rary |rveslrerl
strategy (buy, build, hold, sell) across markets applicable to them. The
corp||al|or ol resporses a||oWs lor ar assessrerl ol lorces currerl|y
dr|v|rg role| |rveslrerl. lrveslors' |rlerl|ors lo 'ouy' assels are r|gresl
|r lre cap|la|s/|ey galeWay rar|els21 ol resporderls |rd|caled
this as their primary investment strategy.
Al lre sare l|re, |rveslors' 'se||' |rlerl|ors Were |oWesl |r lre |argesl
markets. This distribution of responses implies that investors are
see||rg lo 'ro|d' orlo lre|r ex|sl|rg assels |r cap|la| c|l|es g|ver
expected future asset appreciation. The imbalance in the number
ol |||e|y ouyers ard se||ers |r Lal|r Arer|ca's cap|la|s/|ey galeWay
c|l|es a|so suggesls lral assels lral do core lo rar|el W||| garrer a
considerable amount of interest.
|nvestors' un|everaged |RR requ|rements reect r|sk percept|on
Survey respondents average unleveraged internal rate of return (IRR)
requ|rererls are |oWesl |r |arge uroar cerlers ard r|gresl |r ror-
urban areas of Colombia, Peru and Argentina.
0Wed lo lre|r |rlerral|ora| galeWay slalus, deplr ol |rveslor |rleresl
ard re|al|ve rar|el lrarsparercy, lre |oWesl relurr requ|rererl
|rd|caled oy survey resporderls averaged 1.2 lor 3ao Pau|o ard
R|o de Jare|ro, lo||oWed oy 1.1 lor Vex|co C|ly. 3arl|ago Was
pos|l|ored rexl W|lr a relurr requ|rererl ol 1Z.1.
0rapp||rg W|lr a cors|derao|e arourl ol reW supp|y, |rveslors largel
ar ur|everaged lRR ol 20.1 lor 8ogol. 8ueros A|res, ar|d sore
po||l|ca| urcerla|rly, a|so garrered ar lRR requ|rererl ol 20.1.
0 20 10 0 80 100
Rest of country
Large secondary cities
Cap|la|s/|ey galeWays
Buy Build Hold Sell
Respondents primary investment strategy by market type
Investors' lowest unleveraged rate of return requirement by market
Note: pertains to institutional-grade full service hotel assets
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Unleveraged internal rate of return IRR)
Latin America average
lr secordary rar|els, lre proporl|or ol survey resporderls c|l|rg 'ouy'
as lre|r pr|rary |rveslrerl slralegy |s lar |oWer, al , as lrere |s
limited existing international-grade hotel stock available for purchase.
The dominant investment strategy for the lions share of respondents in
secordary rar|els |s lo ou||d reW role|s.
The proportion of hotel investors seeking to develop hotel properties
|r secordary rar|els exceeds lre 'ou||d' |rlerl|ors |r lre cap|la| c|l|es
Wrere lre p|ay|rg le|d |s a|ready rore croWded ard oarr|ers lo erlry
are higher, notably in markets such as Mexico City and Rio de Janeiro.
Brazils next-largest urban centers such as Fortaleza, Recife, Manaus
ard Cur|l|oa rave a lar |oWer proporl|or ol |rsl|lul|ora|-grade role|s ard
the appetite to expand the depth of the hotel stock is ripe.
Respondents hot picks by investment strategy
Buy
Rank Market
1 Mexico City
2 Panama City
3 Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo
4 Lima
5 Santiago
Build
Rank Market
1 Brazil Metros 3-6 Million Residents
2 Cartagena
3 Bogot
4 All Other Brazil
5 Lima
Hold
Rank Market
1 Buenos Aires
2 Panama City
3 Resorls - Cosla R|ca/Parara
4 All Other Colombia
5 All Other Chile
Sell
Rank Market
1 All Other Argentina
2 Los Cabos, Cancun/Riviera Maya
3 Guadalajara, Monterrey
4 All Other Mexico
5 Buenos Aires
South Americas most populous countries such as Brazil and Colombia
W||| Warrarl s|gr|lcarl role| supp|y |rcreases over lre red|ur lerr.
wr||e lrere are a ruroer ol deve|oprerl opporlur|l|es |r lre courlr|es'
galeWay c|l|es, lre polerl|a| lo deeper lre sloc| ol |rsl|lul|ora|-qua||ly
outside of the key cities is substantial, and the survey responses
support this concept.
Respondents primary investment strategy by market
Mexico City
Guadalajara, Monterrey
Los Cabos, Cancun/Riviera Maya
All Other Mexico
Panama City
Resorts - Costa Rica/Panama
Bogot
Cartagena
All Other Colombia
Lima
All Other Peru
Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo
8raz|| Velros 3- V||||or.
All Other Brazil
Santiago
All Other Chile
Buenos Aires
All Other Argentina
Buy Build Hold Sell
Constraints to hotel investment vary by country
lr order lo quarl|ly ard corlrasl corror corslra|rls lo role|
|rveslrerl, lre survey as|ed resporderls lo rar| lve laclors re|aled
lo deve|oprerl ard rar|el erlry lror rosl regal|ve/s|gr|lcarl lo |easl
regal|ve/s|gr|lcarl lor sever courlr|es |r Lal|r Arer|ca.
lr Vex|co, secur|ly corcerrs/v|o|erce, ava||ao|||ly ol deol lrarc|rg
ard ava||ao|||ly ol cred|o|e parlrers Were c|led as rosl s|gr|lcarl
constraints. On the other hand, concerns over political/economic
stability are less applicable in Mexico. In Central America, investors
c|led corcerr over lre aosorpl|or ol lre reW supp|y p|pe||re as lre|r
primary constraint to further investment.
Mexico
Rank 6onstra|nt (1=most s|gn|cant constra|nt}
1 Availability of credible partners (developers/operators)
1 Security concerns/violence
3 Ava||ao|||ly ol deol lrarc|rg
3 Corcerr over reW supp|y aosorpl|or
5 Political/economic stability
Central America
Colombia
Peru
Rank Corslra|rl (1=rosl s|gr|lcarl corslra|rl)
Brazil
Chile
Argentina
Nole: Var|els Wrere lre sare rar| appears rore lrar orce |rd|cales a l|e.
lr Co|oro|a, lre grealesl corslra|rls lo role| |rveslrerl Were c|led as
oe|rg ava||ao|||ly ol deol lrarc|rg, ava||ao|||ly ol cred|o|e parlrers, ard
political/economic stability, implying that investors have not forgotten
the countrys shakier political past. For Peru, the distribution of
resporses Was very s|r||ar.
Resporderls reporled lral lre rosl s|gr|lcarl corslra|rl lo role|
|rveslrerl |r 8raz|| |s lre |ac| ol deol lrarc|rg, lo||oWed oy srorlage
ol cred|o|e parlrers, ev|derced oy lre lacl lral lrere are leW
established third-party hotel management companies in Brazil, for
exarp|e. FeW |rveslors c|led corcerr over lre reW supp|y p|pe||re
being too large in Brazil.
Cr||e, Wr|cr ras rore sopr|sl|caled deol cap|la| rar|els, rar|ed a
corlrasl lror rosl ol lre olrer courlr|es, Wrereoy lre |ac| ol deol
lrarc|rg Was c|led as lre secord |easl s|gr|lcarl corslra|rl. lrveslors'
resporses lrus corlrr lre rol|or lral Cr||e |s aread ol |ls re|groors
W|lr regard lo ava||ao|||ly ol lrarc|rg.
In Argentina, political/economic stability is at the top of the list of
corslra|rls, Wr||e corcerr over reW supp|y aosorpl|or rar|s |oWesl.
This implies that the investment community does not believe that
the country faces notable supply pressures as some investors have
delayed projects in light of the economic uncertainty and public debt
concerns that Argentina faces.
Latin Americas hotel investment landscape undergoing
transformation
A geograpr|ca||y d|verse reg|or, Lal|r Arer|ca |s erler|rg a reW
era. Tre r|dd|e c|ass |s expard|rg ard groW|rg r|crer. 0rce-slar|
|requa||l|es are srr|r||rg. Tre qua||ly ol goverrarce ras |rproved
s|gr|lcarl|y. Tre po||l|ca| |ardscape |s sr|ll|rg lror oe|rg |ess
ideological to more pragmatic.
w|lr a popu|al|or ol rear|y 00 r||||or, lre reg|or's role| |rveslrerl
market is expected to transform itself over the next decade. Though
lrere W||| oe W|rrers ard |osers |r Lal|r Arer|ca, ard rolW|lrslard|rg
var|ous degrees ol r|s|, surg|rg rore-groWr derard |s draral|ca||y
boosting the performance of the lodging industry across Latin America,
creal|rg ar allracl|ve erv|rorrerl lor groWlr.
About the survey: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels survey is
largeled loWard 500 lop |rveslors acl|ve |r Lal|r Arer|ca. Tre
survey |s d|recled loWards |rveslors ard does rol |rc|ude lre
opinions of advisors or analysts. Results are averaged across
a|| resporderls ard rol We|grled oy ary laclors. Resporses lor
lr|s survey Were co||ecled lror Varcr 29 lo Apr|| 12, 2012.
COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2012
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.
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New York
Washington, D.C.
Miami
So Paulo
Auckland Sydney
Brisbane
Melbourne
Tokyo
Jakarta
Singapore
Bangkok
Shanghai
Beijing
New Delhi
Dubai
Glasgow
Moscow
London
Paris
Barcelona
Madrid
Istanbul
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Frankfurt, Dsseldorf
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Birmingham
Leeds
Manchester
Rome
Denver
Perth
Buenos Aires
Mumbai
Exeter
Lyon

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