Contents Contents

Preface Acknowledgements Introduction Colour codes Definitions Abbreviations 1 Demography: Nine Global Challenges Population Migration Urbanization Health and disease Mexico HIV/AIDS Climate change Economy Energy resources Politics and freedom Water resources Israel/Palestine 2 History: 20 Centuries AD 1st to 4th Centuries 5th to 10th Centuries 11th to 14th Centuries 15th and 16th Centuries 17th and 18th Centuries 19th Century 20th Century 3 Religion: The Major Streams World religions The non-religious Communism Islam Hinduism Buddhism Ethnic and other religions Sikhism and Bahai Judaism v vi viii x xii xiv 1 2 4 6 8 8 9 10 12 14 16 18 18 21 22 30 42 50 54 58 60 65 66 69 71 73 79 83 87 89 90 4 Christianity: Six Megablocs Global and continental spread Freedom to minister Global growth and decline The Christian megablocs Catholics Orthodox Protestants Anglicans Independents Marginals Megabloc denominations Overview and the future 5 Christianity: Renewal Growth The need for renewal The influence of the Bible Renewal movements Charismatic/pentecostal growth Renewal growth Evangelical revivals and awakenings 18th-Century revivals 19th-Century revivals Prayer and revival 20th-Century revivals 6 Christianity: The Evangelical Explosion Who are Evangelicals? Global distribution Africas Evangelicals Religious conflict Asias Evangelicals Religious conflict Europes Evangelicals Religious conflict Latin Americas Evangelicals Brazil N Americas Evangelicals Chinas Evangelicals Evangelicals of the Pacific Bible translation in PNG Evangelicals and the future 93 94 96 98 100 104 106 108 110 112 114 115 118 121 122 123 124 125 130 132 133 134 135 136 139 140 142 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158

7 The Unevangelized Measuring evangelization The least evangelized Romania/Moldova Horn of Africa Peoples and languages The 15 affinity blocs Sub-Saharan African Peoples The Fulbe cluster Nigeria and Chad Arab World The Levantine Arab cluster East Asian Peoples The Chinese diaspora Eurasian Peoples The Caucasus cluster Horn of Africa Peoples The Somali cluster Malay Peoples Sumatra Persian-Median Peoples The Kurds South Asian Peoples Indias Chamar caste Southeast Asian Peoples Impact of the Vietnam War Tibetan-Himalayan Peoples The Tibetan cluster Turkic Peoples

161 162 165 166 167 168 169 174 176 178 180 182 184 187 188 191 192 194 196 200 202 204 206 210 212 215 216 219 220

8 Christian Missions and the Future What is a missionary? Sending missionaries From everywhereto everywhere Mission agencies 9 Conclusion: An Evangelized World? Finishing the task Select Bibliography and Databases Electronic Editions and Resources

225 226 227 228 234 237 238 240 241

Note: Notes appear on the concluding page of each chapter.

iv

The FuTure oF The Global ChurCh

PoPulation
In Fig 1.3 the growth of the worlds population is shown for each of the six inhabited continents, the smallest being the Pacific, which includes Australia and nearly all the Pacific island territories. Note the colouring used for each continent, which I have employed fairly consistently throughout this book. The area of each circle is proportionate to the population. Most of the diagrams and statistics I have used cover the 20th Century, with projections to the middle of the 21st. The minimal growth in Europe is a contrast to every other continent. The populations of the Americas and the Pacific are growing as a result of both birth rate and considerable immigration. Africa and Asias growth is almost entirely down to birth rate.

Europe Asia North Americas Latin Pacific 1900 1950 2000 2050

Africa

The world maps in Fig 1.5 show the population changes by country over the 20th Century with projections to 2050. Note that here, and throughout the book, country borders that were valid in 2000 are used for the whole period 19002050, so that comparisons can be made. This period has seen the most dramatic growth in population in the history of the world. In this, the 20th Century is likely to prove unique in terms of both population growth and mass migrations across continents. By 2050 we shall probably be nearing an equilibrium, but massive population movements will continue. Compare the situation at the 50-year markers in Fig 1.5. 1900: There were two major concentrations of population: Europe, and E and S Asia. Europe then had 25% of the global population, but people of European origin dominated 95% of the worlds land mass, most of its industrial power and a huge proportion of its wealth and trade. Europes growth spurt came with the Industrial Revolution in the 19th Century. In 1900, Europe and Asia accounted for 84% of the worlds total population, while the Pacific, the Americas and Africa had just 16% between them. 1950: The population began to explode in Asia, Latin America and Africa, where urbanization became a major factor. Population growth peaked in Latin America and E Asia in the 1990s, but accelerated into the 21st Century in sub-Saharan Africa and in Muslim and Hindu Asiathe very areas that can least sustain larger populationshaving poor governance and inadequate infrastructure. Poverty and lack of education for women lead to population growth rate increases even as infant mortality increases. 2000: The highest population densities were then in three major areas: S and E Asia, Europe and the Middle East, and C America. Unsustainably large increases in the Muslim Middle East and S and SW Asia will affect global stability. 2050: The rapid growth will be mainly in E and W Africa wherever AIDS does not decimate populations (as it will in the south and centre of the continent). Generally speaking, Africa has seen the lowest economic development despite being resource-rich. Corruption, tribalism, the distorting effects of aid dependence and lack of investment in education and infrastructure are to blame. The future is bleak without political, social and economic improvements. In 2050, Europes population will have dropped to a mere 7% (and the Wests to 12.6%) of the worlds populationfor a definition of the West see page xiii.
1900

fig 1.3 Population growth by continent, 19002050

Pop/km2
09 1024 2549 5099 100199 200299 300+

1950

2000

2050 % change
-46-25 -24-10 -90 110 1125 2650 51100 101200 201400 401422

fig 1.4 Population change projection, 200050

fig 1.5 Changing population densities, 19002050

The FuTure oF The Global ChurCh

Hiv / aids
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a terrifying enemy that most likely jumped species in W Africa from chimpanzees to humans some time in the 20th Century. It strikes at the heart of modern culture because it is transmitted mainly through sexual promiscuity and substance abuse. It devastates family life by killing parents and breadwinners. There appears to be little prospect of finding a complete cure, even though research has led to the development of drugs that inhibit the development and spread of the disease. But will these expensive drugs be made available for sufferers in poorer countries? Fig 1.21 shows the areas of the world most affectedAfrica most tragically, but increasingly Russia and S and SE Asia, too. The challenge of HIV is daunting for sufferers and those who are, or should be, caring for them and their families. In 200406, UN estimates of the number of sufferers were somewhat reduced, though it is hard to tell whether that is due to better analysis and reporting or an undercount. By 2005, 25 million people had died as a result of HIV, and this figure is increasing by 23 million every year. In 2006, there were 2 million children living with HIV. There were 15 million under 17 who had lost one or both parents to AIDS, of whom 12 million lived in Africa.10 The table below lists the 10 countries known to be most afflicted with the disease.
Country India S Africa Nigeria Mozambique Zimbabwe Tanzania Kenya USA Zambia Congo, DR Number 5,700,000 5,500,000 2,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000

% population
No data 0 0.1 0.10.5 0.51 12 25 510 1020 2033.4

Sources: 2006 Report on the global AIDS epidemic, UNAIDS; WorldFactbook 2007 Map created by Global Mapping International, 2007-10

fig 1.21 The AIDS pandemic: HIV prevalence among adults aged 1549
global Hiv figures, 19902005 People living with HIV (millions) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 15 10 5 1985 1990 1995 2000 0 2005 % of adults (15-49) living with HIV sub-saharan african Hiv figures, 19852005
People living with HIV (millions) 50 40 30 20 10 0 5 4 3 2 1 1990 1995 2000 0 2005 % of adults (15-49) living with HIV

fig 1.23 People living with HIV: worldwide and in sub-Saharan Africa

for error is considerable, as the vertical max/min lines indicate. This is also shown in Fig 1.24, where margins for error are high in war-torn or failing states such as Swaziland and Zimbabwe, whose health services were barely functioning in 2006.

20 10 Min. 0

AIDS in Africa
Of the 10 countries most afflicted by HIV/AIDS, all but two are in Africa (Fig 1.22), with the centre and south of the continent most affected. In Fig 1.24, a portion of the flag of each country is used. The height of the oval shield indicates the possible maximum and minimum, and the width the more probable actual percentage. Uganda is the only country in the world that has faced up to the tragedy and reduced the percentage of its population with HIV, with the adult infection rate down from about 15% in the early 1990s to an estimated 6.7% in 2005. Once the worst-affected country in the world,

fig 1.24 The 10 African countries with the most adults (1549) living with HIV

Uganda is no longer even in the top 10. The main factor in this success was the widespread application of Christian moral standards. Although some governments, NGOs and churches have made notable efforts to reduce infection rates and set up infrastructures to cope with the needs of victims, carers and the bereaved, too little has been done. Sadly, the active involvement of most African churches has been poor. by providing local, self-sustaining mechanisms for survival, a loving community for the present and real hope for the future. How can the Church worldwide, and in Africa especially, be mobilized to help people living with HIV?

fig 1.22 The 10 countries with the most adults and children living with HIV

In Fig 1.23, the 2006 figures for HIV worldwide and in sub-Saharan Africa are compared. The upper lines show the absolute number of living sufferers and the lower lines the percentage of the population that has the virus. Those in wealthier countries are living longer as a result of better drugs, which have reduced the death rate (though not necessarily the infection rate). The difficulty of measuring the incidence of HIV/AIDS means that the margin

Burning Question for Today

The Church is the only network with the human resources, moral imperative and spiritual motivation to deal with the root causes of the spread of HIV (sexual promiscuity and substance abuse) and help its victims

demoGraPhy: nine Global ChallenGes

Le

30

so wan th a Zi o m ba N bwe am So ib ut ia Za h A m f bi rica M a oz a M mb CA alaw iqu R i e

Sw

50 Max. 40

Bo

ts

az

ila

Estimate range shown by height of country flag shield

nd

sixtH Century The Christian World of AD 500600

Politicized Christendom Christian majority/state DivisionRoman and Donatist Active Christian witness/renewal Stagnating Christianity Christian decline Severe Christian decline Persecution of Christians Severe persecution

Significant dates
Progress 500 Syrian monks established a monastery in Ethiopia, which gradually became Monophysite in doctrine and linked to the Coptic Church in Egypt. 505 Benedict founded the first monastery in Italy, introducing monasticism to the Latin West. 510 Beginning of the Celtic missionary movement as itinerant monks went out over the next four centuries to evangelize new pagan immigrants across N and C Europe 516 Burgundians migrating into southeast France turned to Christianity. 543 The Nubian kingdom in present-day Sudan adopted Monophysite Christianity and became linked to the Coptic Church in Egypt. 563 Columba began evangelizing Scotland from the Isle of Iona. Ultimately, Iona was to be a crucial base for missionaries to the whole of Europe. 587 Visigoths in Spain started to become Catholic Christians. 590 The Irish monk Columbanus founded monasteries all over what are now France, Germany and northern Italy. 596 Augustine came to England to evangelize the Saxons. By this time, much of north and central England was already being evangelized by the Celtic Church. Setbacks 512 West Syrian (Jacobite) Church became Monophysite, and was then severely persecuted by Byzantine Greek Orthodox Christians. 523 By 500 the Najran kingdom in Yemen contained many Monophysite Christians, but in this year its Jewish king, Masruq, murdered 30,000 Arab Christians. 533 Sixth wave of Persian persecution of Eastern Christians

Key Statistics: 500600 500

600

World population (millions) 190 185 Christians (millions) 37.8 39.9 Christians as % of world 19.9% 21.5% population Christian martyrs during 501600 74,000

Persecutors
Jewish (Yemen) Byzantine Persian Other

Martyrs
Eastern Syrian Coptic

Various Armenian

fig 2.15 Who persecuted whom in the 6th Century

Missions in times of crisis

The huge loss of life, destruction of empires and mass migrations of the 6th Century crippled the military and political powers of the day. Organized Christianity fared just as badly. Yet it was the Christians on the fringesthe Celts, the Berbers of N Africa and the heavily persecuted Eastern Christians who took up the missionary task. Much of the outreach of the Celtic Christians into Germanic-ruled Europe and of the Eastern Christians eastwards towards China was not organized as such but

arose spontaneously out of their perceived calling as Christians. It was these believers, not the hierarchies of the Latin or Greek Churches, that undertook this work. These early missionaries learnt local languages and cultures and by adapting their approach were extraordinarily successful. Church history rarely recalls their achievements the Catholics either ignored the work of the Celts or claimed it as their own, and later the Mongols destroyed much of the evidence for the astonishing work of the Eastern Christians.

Burning Question for Today

The 21st Century could be similar to the 6th, with huge numbers of economic migrants invading Europe and the West as the Middle East and C Asia once again experience great trauma and, possibly, major religious and ethnic conflicts and water wars. Will we respond to crisis as Christians then did and see the chaos as a God-given opportunity for the Gospel?

hisTory: 20 CenTuries ad

33

tHe non-religious The Spread of the Non-religious

1900
At the end of the 19th Century, few people openly professed to have no religion. Then, humanism, a child of the European Enlightenment, went mainstream in the then dominant West. The maps in Fig 3.8 show the impact of this. In the 20th Century, people with no religion were to become a major force in politics and the media. Their ideology is, in effect, a belief system based on evolution (no creator needed), materialism (there is no spiritual world) and humanism (Man is inherently good). Many of the non-religious scoff at religions because they cause wars, but the 20th Century gave rise to Communism and Nazism, which between them produced the worst democides, ethnocides and wars in history.
1900

Non-religious %
01 12 25 510 1020 2050 5080 8095 95+

1950

1950
The number of people with no religion multiplied amidst the disillusionment of economic catastrophe in the Depression, two devastating world wars and the rise of a militantly atheistic Soviet Union intent on world domination and the destruction of all religious belief. In 1950, the Communists gained control of all of mainland China, the Cold War was at its height and Europe was divided by an iron curtain (see map).10 The European empires were crumbling and the continent was turning away from a Christianity that was in desperate need of reawakening. Marxs prediction that religion would wither away looked ever more plausible.

2000

2000
By 1980, Communism had reached its global peak, but within 10 years it suffered a dramatic collapse as a viable ideology. Its spiritual legacy was mixed, but in many postCommunist countries people turned to religions both old and new. The non-religious element of the global population, though it is still significant, probably peaked in 1980. The principal concentrations of people with no religion (in China and much of the West) were rapidly ageing by 2000, while elsewhere religion (and especially Islam and Christianity) was back in the ascendancy.

2050

2050
In the West, the inexorable rise in the percentage of people claiming no religious affiliation is likely to continue, as the shading on this map shows. Few Westerners today perceive that in the rest of the world the trend is in the opposite direction. The Western secular media, generally hostile to religion and to Christianity in particular, may currently be dominant globally, but for how much longer?

fig 3.8 The spread of the non-religious during the 20th and 21st Centuries

reliGion: The major sTreams

69

Continental sPread
Europe Pacific N America Latin America Africa Asia
Af As Eu LA NA Pa Af As Eu LA NA Pa Af As Eu LA NA Pa Af As Eu LA NA Pa
Christian Muslim Buddhist Hindu Ethnic Non-religious

4
Continental Populations

1900

1.6 billion

1950

2.5 billion

2000

6.1 billion

2050

9.1 billion
Christian Other

Note: These pies show only proportions of the religions in each continent and not population variations

The pie charts in Fig 4.3 show the Christian component of the population of each continent in relation to the other five major religious streams, vertically over time and horizontally in comparison with the other continents. The bar charts compare the continental populations.

fig 4.3 Likely growth and decline of religions per continent, 19002050

Europe
A Christian continent in 1900. Are we witnessing the death of Europes civilization? A high degree of nominalism, increasing secularization and growing influence of liberal theology, and disillusion and cynicism following two world wars led to massive decline in church attendance. Increasing pluralism (as a result of immigration and experimentation with new religious ideas), growth of Islam at a time when the Church was discouraged and divided, and rejection of absolutes in society under the banner of tolerance resulted in marginalization of Christianity. By 2050, Christians will make up less than 50% of the ageing population, with most being nominal in their adherence.

with a Protestant majority. The 1950s in the USA were characterized by vigorous church life and the immigration of people of other faiths. A growing secularism in the media and public life then contrasted with the strong commitment to faith in US societythese trends are likely to be maintained in the 21st Century, when they will impact the world.

that followed the colonial rush to independence. Africa was unique in being the first continent to become Christianmajority in barely a single century.

Asia
Asia is the birthplace of all the major world religions: it is still the most religiously-diverse continent, and the only one on which Christianity does not have the most adherents. Islam and Christianity are the religions in the ascendancy, with the latter outgrowing the former (though from a smaller population base). Asias huge population and growing economic influence make it a key arena for future Christian ministry: Asian input into every aspect of Christian philosophy, theology and practice is likely to become pivotal by the middle of the 21st Century.

Latin America
By 1900, there was little challenge to the dominance of Catholicism in Latin America: much of the indigenous population was effectually unevangelized, though nominally Catholic, and there was a lot of traditionalism and syncretism. In 1900, Protestants did not regard the continent as a mission field; consequently small numbers. N American missions changed this, with a rapid growth in the number of Protestants after 1970. The advent of Pentecostalism (both indigenous and imported) after 1906 proved astonishingly successful. Secularism has been less evident than in Europe. Losses from Catholicism to Evangelicals stimulated the development of Charismatic theology and worship within Catholicism.

The Pacific
By 1900, much of the indigenous population was Christian or rapidly becoming so. European settlers in Australia and New Zealand had a Christian majority, but followed Europe into spiritual decline and cynical secularism, albeit more slowly. Asian settlers since 1990 are often more overtly religious Muslim, Buddhist and also Christian.

Burning Question for Today

Nearly all of the major world religions have become global in their influence as a result of migration and also of unashamedly winning converts. Many Christians have become embarrassed even to use the word mission, let alone actually to proclaim the amazing Good News, for fear of causing offence. How does your own life and that of your local fellowship compare with the challenging words of the Apostle Paul in Romans 1:16? For I am not ashamed of the Gospel; it is the power of God for salvation to everyone who has faith

Africa
Only in the 19th Century did most of Africa become open to traveland the Gospel. Ethiopia, however, had already been Christian for nearly 2,000 years. In 1900, the majority of N Africans were Muslim while sub-Saharan Africa followed traditional religions. Colonial regimes strongly promoted their national brands of Christianity up to the 1960s. The real growth of Christianity came in the chaotic 40 years ChrisTianiTy: six meGabloCs

N America
The first amendment to the US Constitution ensured the separation of Church and State and created a flourishing free market for religious faith and its propagation worldwide: patterns and methods of US Christianity were then exported globally and adopted even by opponents of Christianity. In 1900, N America was almost entirely Christian,

95

afriCa's evangeliCals
African Evangelicals increased over the period 19002050, but the greatest growth was between 1960 and 2000, the very period in which the European colonial powers relinquished their empires and Evangelical Christianity became indigenous.
2000 Morocco Algeria W Sahara Mauritania Senegal Tunisia

1900

Libya

Egypt

Cape Verde

Mali

Niger Chad Sudan

Eritrea Djibouti Ethiopia 1960 Somalia Uganda Kenya Tanzania Malawi

Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea Nigeria Guinea-Bissau Cte Benin d'Ivoire Sierra Leone Liberia Togo Cameroon Ghana Equat Guinea SoTom Gabon & Prncip Congo

CAR

Rwanda Burundi Congo, DR

Seychelles Comoros Mayotte

Angola St Helena Evangelical %

00.2 0.20.5 0.51 12 25 510 1020 20+

am

Namibia

Zimbabwe

bi

qu

Zambia

Madagascar

Mauritius Runion

South Africa

Swaziland Lesotho

Botswana

oz

2050

fig 6.14 Evangelicals in Africa, 19002050

The colonial carve-up of Africa in the 19th Century imposed borders with little regard for cultural and political realities, to create todays countries. On the positive side, this provided the opportunity for Christianity to advance in Africawith a predominance of Protestants (many being Evangelicals) in Anglophone countries and Catholics elsewhere. On the negative side, it led to nepotism, corruption and warfare following independence in the years after 1957.12 Competing ethnic groups, religions and ideologies were too complex to allow for stability and growth. Fig 6.15 represents the five UN-designated regions of Africa.
30 25
% of population

20 15 10 5 0

Africa - West Africa - South Africa - North Africa - East Africa - Middle

North: culturally part of the Muslim Arab world; evangelical growth as a result both of indigenous Berber peoples coming to Christ and of northward migrations South: the first area to be impacted by Evangelicals, but very little growth since 1960 East: massive growth as a result of revival; limited opposition from the Muslim minority Centre: strong evangelical missions effort leading to the planting of many different churches, which became the most stable component of societies reduced to chaos by war, economic collapse and political failure

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

fig 6.15 Regional evangelical growth in Africa, 19602050

West: slower growth as a result of French colonial and, later, Muslim-majority opposition, though boosted by revivals in Nigeria and Ghana The colonial powers created unviable states, while postcolonial Cold War politics supported dictators, condoned corruption, promoted unfair trade policies and provided inappropriate aid. Amidst all the chaos, evangelical Christians are growing and could soon become a major source of Christian workers and missionaries to the world.

Food for Thought

We may all be of African descent!13 Westerners have been dismissive of the failings of Africa, but how many realize that their own countries were major contributors to these failures?

146

The FuTure oF The Global ChurCh

malay PeoPles
Sumatrathe largest unevangelized island on earth

Aceh Gayo Batak Alas-Kluet Simeulue

W MALAYSIA

Batak Sikule Karo Dairi Simalungun Toba Angkola Mandailing

Nias Malay

SINGAPORE

Minangkabau Lubu Kerinci Muko-Muko Pekal Rejang Bengkulu

Mentawai

Malay, Jambi Kubu Kelingi Loncong Lom Malay

Malay Palembang Musi Lembak Rawas Ogan Penesak Enim

Christian % in 2000
00.5 0.55 550 50+ Each people is largely grouped by people cluster. The Malay dominate Sumatras eastern half and coastal areas. Scattered across much of Sumatra are Javanese transmigration areasgenerally identifiable as light blue areas since there are Christians among them.

Pasemah Lematang Lintang Serawai Semendo Kaur

Malay

Enggano

Lampung Komering Sungkai Abung Pubian Ranau Krui Pesisir

JAVA

fig 7.54 The peoples/languages of Sumatra and their evangelization

At 473,000 km2 Sumatra is the worlds sixth-largest island, but in terms of population it is third, with nearly 50 million people.27 It has some 52 indigenous people groups in eight people clusters, nearly all of which are represented on the map above, which is coloured according to the percentage of each people group that is Christian. The contrasts are striking. The Christianized areas stand out clearly. Here, Christians constitute some 1012% of the population, and they are in a majority among most of the Batak peoples and the peoples on the chain of islands off Sumatras west coast. Among the Angkola and Mandailing Batak there has been a more limited response to the Good News, and there was a limited people movement among the Muslim Serawai in 1965 that did not develop. Several small tribal forest peoples, such as the Kubu and Lulu, still practise their ethnic religions, but have heard little of the Gospel. Unevangelized peoples constitute the majority in Sumatra. Islam took root first in Aceh about 800 years ago and has 200

since spread gradually across Sumatra and then to much of the rest of Indonesia. It has become more deeply embedded in Sumatra than in any other part of the country. Christian missionaries have been largely confined to the non-Muslim areas of the island, and there has never been a strong witness to its Muslim peoples. There are very few believers.

Burning Question for Today

The history of Aceh is one of centuries of conflict with Dutch and British colonial powers and, since 1949, the Indonesian army (in which many Christian Batak serve) all seeking control of its strategic position and abundant natural resources. This made the Aceh people hostile to Christianity. How can people with such a background be evangelized and discipled?

The FuTure oF The Global ChurCh