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CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM Hovde For Senate Campaign Wes Anderson, OnMessage Inc. July 5, 2012 Two Man Race Developing

The following findings are taken from our brand new survey of GOP primary voters in Wisconsin. The survey was conducted June 26-27, 2012 and consists of 600 likely GOP primary voters stratified by county to reflect historic turnout trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.0%. Key Findings: The Republican primary for the US Senate is now a very clear two man race between Hovde at 29% and Thompson at 34%. o Thompson 34 o Hovde 29 o Neumann 16 o Fitzgerald 7 o Undecided 14 In the beginning of May, the Wisconsin GOP Senate primary was a tight three-way race (North Star Opinion Research). o Thompson 30 o Hovde 27 o Neumann 23 o Fitzgerald 10 o Undecided 10 Neumann has dropped to a distant 3rd with only 16% of the vote. With 14% undecided and Thompson already having near-universal name ID, Hovde is well positioned to make substantial inroads to those critical voters who have yet to hear his message. Among voters who label themselves very conservative which amount to 41% of the GOP primary electorate Hovde leads the field with 34%, while 10% of those voters are undecided. When we take a look at the race by the all-important GOP primary voting block of those ages 55 and older, we again find a statistical dead heat between Hovde and Thompson. Hovde has 31% of the vote to Thompsons 34%.

About Wes Anderson Wes Anderson is a partner at OnMessage Inc., a Republican polling and media firm. Mr. Anderson polls for Republican candidates at both the federal and state levels throughout the country. In over 20 years of polling, Anderson has conducted numerous polls within Wisconsin for clients that include Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican Governors Association, National Rifle Association, National Republican Congressional Committee and Republican State Leadership Committee. Anderson is widely regarded as one of the most accurate pollsters working in the state. Methodology Comparison While the Marquette survey does give us a glimpse into general trends within the GOP primary, it is structurally incapable of providing the accuracy we get from a dedicated primary survey. We do not fault the Marquette poll as it follows widely accepted methodological practices. However, it is not a dedicated GOP primary poll, which is often cost prohibitive for media outlets and universities. In addition, the Marquette surveys geographic distribution reflects historic turnout trends for statewide general elections but not GOP primaries.