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INVESTOR DIGEST
Equity Research | 02 July 2012
Economic Data
HIGHLIGHT
Latest
2012F
5.75
5.75
Inflation (YoY %)
4.45
5.50
9,365
9,108
CORPORATE
JCI Index
3,955.6
Trading T/O ( Rp bn )
4,820.5
Market Cap ( Rp tn )
3,729.9
1.75%
2011F
2012F
15.6
12.5
24.7
17.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.6
7.4
15.8
13.5
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.0
2.3
2.7
6.3
7.4
11.4
1.5
ROE (%)
23.3
23.6
Reported its audited 1Q12 results over the weekend. The results were
audited for the purpose of bond issuance in July-August, part of the
companys drive to lower its overall debt cost. The 1Q12 results displayed
one full quarter of consolidation from ENRGs newly acquired 18.7% stake
in ONWJ PSC. The 1Q12 results were reported in US dollars, while the
previous reporting currency was in IDR. In this analysis, we converted the
1Q12 results to IDR based on an average exchange rate of Rp9,082/US$1.
The results were impressive above the net profit line. Pre-tax profit grew by
406% YoY and 5% QoQ, EBITDA grew by 180% YoY and 25% QoQ, while
revenue grew by 143% YoY and 27% QoQ. At the net profit line, the strong
PBT growth was offset by a big jump in tax expense, which resulted in a
78% effective tax rate in 1Q12. The 1Q12 reported net profit of Rp22.3bn
looks small compared to full year consensus forecast of Rp501bn (based on
estimates from 7 analysts).
IDR bn
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
YoY
OoQ
Revenue
421.6
444.0
451.7
805.6
1026.3
143%
27%
EBIT
139.0
136.5
127.5
375.6
372.9
168%
-1%
EBITDA
191.1
183.2
181.2
426.3
534.4
180%
25%
EBITDA margin
45%
41%
40%
53%
52%
Interest expense
PBT
-80.3
41.0
-87.4
77.3
-88.2
7.7
-120.0
198.5
-165.6
207.6
106%
406%
38%
5%
Tax
-25.5
-50.5
-2.1
-72.6
-162.3
62%
65%
27%
37%
78%
Minority interest
-1.2
-6.5
-0.3
-97.4
-23.0
Net income
14.3
20.4
5.4
28.5
22.3
56%
-22%
We are meeting the company @9am today to discuss the 1Q12 results and
its most updated FY12 outlook. We suspect the seemingly bad 1Q12 results
could provide another buying opportunity in ENRG, who may still have the
chance to re-coup its full year profit shortfall in the remaining nine months
of 2012. In todays meeting, we would ask the management the following
queries:
Page 1 of 5
(1) The prospect of a (much) lower tax rate in Mar-Dec 2012 statements. 1Q results are not usually audited, allowing
oil and gas companies to accrue the estimated cost recovery (a deduction to tax and government net-backs) bill over
four quarters. Because the 1Q12 results were audited (and cost recovery activities typically more active in 2H), the
cost recovery bookings could have been inconsistent. But 2Q12 report is less than one month away and it may
smooth out the 1Q12 anomaly.
(2) Revenue, EBITDA, and net profit uplift from Kangean TSB in 3Q12. Kangean TSB is already producing more than
300 mmscfd of gas since the start of its production in June. We want to understand better its impact on ENRGs 3Q12
profit and loss statement.
(3) Refinancing benefits and tax shield. ENRG borrowed a significant sum to acquire the effective 18.7% stake in
ONWJ PSC. Now, it is looking to refinance its whole debt facility at cheaper rate. We want to quantify its ultimate
impact on the bottom line (there could be as high as a 1:1 relationship between interest expense and net income,
due to the lack of tax shielding allowed between parent company and their PSCs).
(4) Re-pricing of ONWJ gas. There is a portion of ONWJ gas that is being sold below the current market price.
Indonesia is currently re-pricing upward its whole gas supply chain, and we expect ONWJ to be a beneficiary. We
want to understand better the timing and the magnitude of this potential change.
*** It appears to us that markets are ready to go back to risk-on mode with the oil futures higher by 7-9% overnight.
ENRG share price has given back all the gains earned from the ONWJ acquisition announcement. If our thesis on the four
2H12 drivers for ENRG are being re-confirmed by the management on todays meeting, we will likely keep the stock as
one of our top 10 mid-small cap picks for 2012 ***
verdi.budiman@mandirisek.co.id
raditya.artono@mandirisek.co.id
Jasa Marga: Has formed a consortium with Provincial Government of West Sumatra for 205Km of new toll road
project (JSMR, Rp5,400, Buy, TP: Rp5,700)
No. Toll road project
Project on the pipeline
1 Bogor Ring Road
2 Semarang - Solo
3 Gempol - Pasuruan
4 Cengkareng - Kunciran
5 Kunciran - Serpong
6 JORR W2 North (Kebon Jeruk-Ulujami)
7 Surabaya - Mojokerto
8 Gempol - Pandaan
9 Nusa Dua - Tanjung Benoa
TOTAL
New project on feasibility study
Trans Sumatra
1 West Sumatra
Padang - Sicincin
Sicincin - Padang Panjang
Padang Panjang - Bukit Tinggi
Bukit Tinggi - Payakumbuh
Payakumbuh - Riau
2 Medan - Kuala Namu - Bukit Tinggi
3 Pekanbaru - Kandis - Dumai
4 Lampung RR - Tanjung Karang
TOTAL
JSMR's
Length Investment Concession
(Km) Cost (Rp tn) period (yr) ownership
11.0
75.7
34.2
15.2
11.2
7.7
36.27
13.60
10.00
214.9
0.98
6.01
2.77
3.50
2.55
2.15
3.20
1.20
2.30
24.66
45
45
45
35
35
40
42
35
50
55%
60%
80%
75%
60%
65%
55%
52%
60%
205.0
28.0
23.0
33.0
28.0
93.0
60.0
135.0
21.0
421.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
Page 2 of 5
Together with Provincial Government of West Sumatra, Jasa Marga has formed a consortium namely PT Jasa Marga
Sumbar (JMS), which will engaged in development of 5 toll road sections with length totaling 205Km. Currently, JMS is
conducting the feasibility study for those projects, while from the preliminary identification, Padang Sicincin (28Km)
section is the most ready to begin the kick off, due to the availability of the traffic, which is expected can meet the
financial feasibility. Traffic in regular road for this section reaches 28,000 33,000 vehicles/day and is expected half of
them will use the new toll road. JSMR is targeting the signing of the toll road concession agreement can be realized in
Oct-12, while toll roads are expected to start operation gradually starting 2014.
JSMR also an initiative of another 3 Trans Sumatra projects, namely: Medan-Kuala Namu - Tebing Tinggi (60Km),
Pekanbaru Kandis Dumai (135Km) and Lampung Ring Road Tanjung Karang (21Km), which are still in feasibility
study and is targeting to be proposed the concession from Toll Road Regulatory Agency (BPJT) by 2013.
The company allocates Rp40tn for development and acquisition of new toll roads for period until 2013, while Rp25tn is
allocated for financing 9 new toll road projects with length totaling 215Km.
We are targeting FY12F revenue to reach Rp5.7tn (+19.7%YoY) and net profit of Rp1.7tn (+20.0%YoY). We have a Buy
recommendation on JSMR, is trading at PER12F -13F of 21.4-18.4x.
maria.renata@mandirisek.co.id
Page 3 of 5
Equity Valuation
CAGR'07/09
Price
JCI Code Rating Price (Rp) Target
Mandiri Universe
Banking
BCA
BNI
BRI
BTN
Danamon
Panin
Infrastructure
Holcim
Indocement
Semen Gresik
Adhi Karya
PP
Wijaya Karya
Jasa Marga
Citra Marga
Chem ical
Lautan Luas
AKR Corporindo
Indah kiat
Budi Acid Jaya
Consum er
Indofood
Indofood CBP
Gudang Garam
Mayora
Unilever
Kalbe Farma
Retail
Mitra Adiperkasa
Ramayana
Ace Hardw are Indonesia
ERAA
Supra Boga
Conglom erates
Astra International
IMAS
INDS
Heavy Equipm ent
United Tractors
Hexindo Adiperkasa
Plantation
Astra Agro Lestari
Bakrie Sumatera Plantations
Sampoerna Agro
London Sumatera Plantations
Property
Agung Podomoro Land
Bakrieland Development
Bumi Serpong Damai
CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
Kaw asan Industri Jababeka
Summarecon Agung
Sentul City
Energy
Medco
Energi Mega Persada
Bukit Asam
Bumi
Adaro
Harum Energy
Berau
Indo Tambangraya Megah
Indy
Delta Dunia
PGN
Metal
Antam
PT Inco
Timah
Bumi Resources Minerals
Telecom m unication
Bakrie Telecom
Indosat
EXCEL
Telkom
TBI
Manufacture
Multistrada
Gajah Tunggal
BBCA
BBNI
BBRI
BBTN
BDMN
PNBN
Neutral
Buy
buy
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
7,300
3,825
6,350
1,290
6,000
790
9,000
4,700
8,100
1,800
5,900
1,200
SMCB
INTP
SMGR
ADHI
PTPP
WIKA
JSMR
CMNP
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
LTLS
AKRA
INKP
BUDI
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
INDF
ICBP IJ
GGRM
MYOR
UNVR
KLBF
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
MAPI
RALS
ACES
ERAA
RANC
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
7,150
940
5,050
1,890
650
ASII
IMAS
INDS
Buy
Buy
Buy
6,850
7,650
7,000 10,000
4,075
8,300
UNTR
HEXA
Buy
Buy
21,350 29,200
9,050
9,000
AALI
UNSP
SGRO
LSIP
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
20,050 23,000
182
400
2,975
4,150
2,675
2,950
APLN
ELTY
BSDE
CTRA
KIJA
SMRA
BKSL
Buy
BUY
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
MEDC
ENRG
PTBA
BUMI
ADRO
HRUM
BRAU
ITMG
INDY
DOID
PGAS
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
ANTM
INCO
TINS
BRMS
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
1,340
2,675
1,380
410
2,400
6,700
3,600
830
BTEL
ISAT
EXCL
TLKM
TBIG
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
200
4,325
6,150
8,150
3,275
160
5,600
6,300
7,600
3,850
MASA
GJTL
Neutral
Buy
520
2,275
511
3,100
2,425
3,000
17,350 18,200
11,300 13,300
990
560
610
800
1,050
810
5,400
5,700
1,950
2,300
800
3,475
1,050
169
800
3,000
1,600
230
4,850
5,225
5,750
5,100
61,500 56,900
25,300 25,000
22,900 16,000
3,775
3,050
345
70
1,180
650
185
1,620
230
6,000
990
4,250
2,230
700
430
173
1,350
605
220
2,250
450
1,800
3,050
143
298
14,650 23,500
1,110
3,700
1,450
2,200
5,700 10,500
355
660
35,950 45,500
1,860
3,500
395
1,000
3,525
4,960
20.8%
Net Profit
Mkt Cap
Rp Bn 2011F
2012F
2,277,925
488,614
179,982
71,331
156,533
11,236
50,503
19,029
200,162
18,583
63,869
66,258
1,740
2,954
6,138
36,720
3,900
20,278
624
13,275
5,745
635
423,955
42,583
33,528
118,331
19,395
174,727
35,391
33,698
11,869
6,670
8,661
5,481
1,017
297,586
277,312
19,357
917
87,240
79,638
7,602
57,878
31,574
2,410
5,644
18,251
61,276
7,073
2,794
20,646
9,858
2,549
11,134
7,221
276,320
5,998
5,803
33,765
23,055
46,378
15,390
12,390
40,621
9,685
3,218
80,017
56,791
12,782
26,580
6,946
10,484
261,424
5,696
23,502
52,324
164,304
15,598
12,703
4,775
7,928
13.1
11.5
14.5
11.6
9.5
9.5
12.3
8.7
15.7
13.5
15.4
15.3
12.5
10.5
16.2
21.4
10.8
12.2
7.2
22.3
6.3
9.0
24.3
12.7
14.6
22.2
29.5
42.0
22.2
19.5
26.2
14.2
26.2
12.5
29.2
14.2
14.3
14.6
5.9
12.8
12.7
14.1
10.8
12.9
5.1
8.2
10.5
18.9
10.8
17.0
19.1
28.4
7.6
23.3
39.2
8.8
11.1
8.7
8.8
4.6
9.0
8.0
6.3
9.2
7.4
10.9
12.4
5.7
5.8
5.2
3.8
12.9
13.8
12.2
12.2
16.2
13.1
19.3
12.1
18.1
10.0
8.6
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
11.2
9.1
11.3
12.1
5.0
4.9
6.5
15.5
7.8
9.1
7.7
17.6
7.9
5.1
16.3
7.1
9.9
16.0
23.2
33.4
15.5
14.2
14.9
10.5
20.4
10.5
20.8
15.2
14.9
24.4
5.5
7.0
6.8
11.1
7.4
8.5
4.8
6.5
7.3
17.1
11.0
25.2
17.5
16.7
11.0
16.3
48.0
5.6
5.2
11.5
7.9
5.5
4.5
5.7
3.1
5.7
5.9
4.1
7.4
4.2
2.8
3.5
2.6
140.8
5.1
3.9
3.7
6.3
4.9
23.9
8.2
10.2
7.6
7.5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9.5
7.7
9.7
10.2
3.3
5.0
5.2
12.4
6.3
8.5
7.1
15.6
7.4
4.6
15.0
7.0
9.1
14.6
16.2
30.1
14.5
11.1
11.9
8.1
14.7
9.3
13.4
13.3
13.2
17.9
4.7
6.7
6.5
9.1
6.8
8.1
4.5
5.4
6.5
12.8
7.3
18.1
15.1
15.0
7.5
10.9
34.4
4.5
4.9
4.7
5.7
3.7
3.6
4.8
2.7
5.3
4.9
4.1
6.8
3.7
2.8
2.9
2.1
37.4
4.6
3.5
3.3
5.6
4.4
15.4
7.5
11.2
6.2
3.2
3.0
4.6
1.9
3.4
1.7
2.5
1.5
3.8
2.4
4.1
4.6
1.9
2.1
3.1
4.3
1.9
0.8
0.7
3.4
0.3
0.8
6.3
2.2
3.3
4.9
8.2
39.7
5.7
3.9
6.6
2.3
7.2
1.8
5.9
4.5
4.6
4.1
1.2
3.0
2.9
5.2
2.4
3.9
0.3
2.2
3.2
1.8
1.6
0.4
2.5
1.9
1.4
4.5
1.6
2.9
0.8
0.9
4.0
2.9
2.2
5.0
3.0
4.3
1.5
2.0
4.3
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.3
0.6
2.7
1.0
1.2
3.7
3.0
6.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.8
2.6
3.9
1.7
2.8
1.5
2.2
1.3
3.3
2.1
3.6
3.9
1.7
1.7
2.7
3.9
1.6
0.8
0.7
3.1
0.3
0.7
5.6
2.0
2.9
4.3
6.7
36.3
5.0
3.5
5.4
2.2
5.8
2.1
2.9
3.8
3.8
3.3
1.2
2.7
2.7
4.1
2.1
3.5
0.3
1.8
2.7
1.6
1.3
0.3
2.3
1.8
1.2
3.9
1.5
2.4
0.7
0.8
3.1
2.5
1.8
4.5
1.6
3.7
1.3
1.9
3.5
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.1
0.6
2.4
0.9
1.2
3.1
2.7
4.7
1.8
2.4
1.5
0.6
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0
0.8
-1.3
-0.4
1.3
0.4
-2.2
2.4
1.0
5.3
4.3
-0.4
6.5
2.2
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.7
2.6
-0.3
-1.0
0.0
1.0
-2.0
-0.6
1.0
0.7
1.5
1.5
3.3
1.7
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
-0.5
2.6
0.2
-0.9
0.1
1.2
9.7
-3.6
-3.4
4.9
-0.5
1.6
1.0
3.1
4.2
-1.3
3.3
1.0
-0.7
0.5
-0.9
1.7
2.7
-0.4
-0.4
-1.5
-0.3
-0.3
24.4
0.5
0.9
1.3
0.6
0.1 3.9
2.4
3.5
2.0
0.4
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.1
0.7
-1.0
-0.2
0.2
1.0
-2.4
2.2
0.2
5.0
3.8
-0.2
6.2
1.9
-0.2
-0.1
-0.9
0.1
1.5
-0.3
-0.9
-0.1
0.7
-1.9
-0.4
0.7
-2.0
1.3
1.2
2.6
1.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.5
-0.2
-0.5
2.3
0.1
-1.2
0.3
0.6
6.3
-2.3
-1.5
3.7
-0.5
1.3
0.4
3.2
1.8
-1.3
1.8
0.1
-0.7
0.6
-1.2
1.4
2.8
-1.0
-0.4
-1.3
-0.4
-0.4
9.0
0.3
0.5
1.0
0.2
0.1
5.0
1.9
3.2
1.5
22.6%
22.6%
27.0%
15.4%
32.1%
14.7%
15.6%
13.6%
22.4%
14.2%
25.0%
29.7%
13.2%
17.9%
18.8%
17.5%
16.5%
13.8%
9.0%
70.6%
4.8%
7.1%
25.0%
17.0%
20.6%
21.5%
21.6%
88.6%
25.6%
18.0%
22.1%
13.7%
25.2%
16.2%
16.9%
32.1%
32.4%
27.3%
28.1%
28.2%
27.8%
34.7%
22.0%
31.3%
5.7%
24.3%
31.8%
7.4%
13.0%
1.7%
10.6%
6.0%
9.1%
17.0%
3.1%
29.0%
5.0%
0.9%
41.7%
22.8%
24.7%
54.8%
34.8%
52.6%
18.7%
10.9%
40.0%
18.2%
21.1%
26.4%
32.0%
4.2%
18.3%
6.2%
7.2%
22.9%
22.5%
18.5%
15.5%
11.5%
17.2%
22.6%
24.3%
29.1%
15.8%
32.3%
16.8%
18.7%
16.4%
22.4%
16.7%
24.6%
27.6%
14.2%
17.7%
17.9%
19.0%
16.0%
6.5%
9.7%
14.5%
4.7%
8.5%
24.5%
16.4%
21.0%
20.7%
25.1%
90.2%
24.0%
19.3%
22.7%
15.8%
24.5%
18.6%
13.2%
28.9%
29.2%
25.2%
22.3%
22.8%
22.2%
32.6%
20.6%
28.5%
5.8%
24.5%
27.5%
8.9%
13.5%
2.0%
12.4%
6.5%
16.7%
18.1%
3.9%
30.1%
6.8%
10.2%
39.8%
56.8%
22.0%
59.2%
32.6%
42.5%
19.2%
18.5%
31.1%
18.3%
18.8%
26.5%
31.4%
4.6%
18.6%
8.1%
9.8%
20.8%
21.6%
27.8%
15.7%
13.8%
16.4%
Page 4 of 5
RESEARCH
Verdi Budiman
verdi.budiman@mandirisek.co.id
adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id
hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id
Strategy, Banking
Adrian Joezer
Banking
kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id
Maria Renata
maria.renata@mandirisek.co.id
octavius.prakarsa@mandirisek.co.id
raditya.artono@mandirisek.co.id
Chemical
villya.purba@mandirisek.co.id
Aldian Taloputra
Economist
aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id
Economist
leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id
Rafdi Prima
Technical Analyst
rafdi.prima@mandirisek.co.id
Wisnu Trihatmojo
Research Assistant
wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id
lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id
Silva Halim
silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id
Reinald Wangsanata
Institutional Sales
Reinald.wangsanata@mandirisek.co.id
Oos Rosadi
Institutional Sales
oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id
Vera Ongyono
Institutional Sales
vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Lokman Lie
Institutional Sales
arvita.ananda@mandirisek.co.id
Andrew Handaya
Institutional Sales
andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id
Institutional Sales
zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id
Kusnadi Widjaja
Equity Dealing
kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id
Edwin Setiadi
Equity Dealing
edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id
Jakarta Branch
marhaendra@mandirisek.co.id
RETAIL SALES
Marhaendra
Yohanes Triyanto
Yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id
+6221 45845355
Hendra Riady
hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id
meta.prilyandari@mandirisek.co.id
+6221 75818837
Boy Triono
Bandung Branch
boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id
+6222 2510738
Mochamad Jamil
Banjarmasin Branch
m.jamil@mandirisek.co.id
irawan.es@mandirisek.co.id
Ruwie
Medan Branch
ruwie@mandirisek.co.id
INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower).
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX). Although the contents of this document may
represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other
company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be
involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or
any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For
further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275711.
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be
influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.