Professional Documents
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Disclaimer
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation that could lead these companies to disagree with Pershing Squares conclusions. This presentation and the information contained herein is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates have invested in common stock of Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO). Pershing Square manages funds that are in the business of trading buying and selling securities and financial instruments. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Pershing Square to change its position regarding FDO. Pershing Square may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form of its investment in FDO for any reason. Pershing Square hereby disclaims any duty to provide any updates or changes to the analyses contained here including, without limitation, the manner or type of any Pershing Square investment.
Family Dollar
Ticker: FDO Stock Price: $54 Market Cap: ~$6.6B EV: ~$6.7B FY2012 P/E: 14x (August FY)
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Note: Pershing Square EPS esimtate of $3.88 All stock prices and financials are as of May 24, 2011 close
Business Overview
Business Description
Family Dollar
Mix
~65% of sales are consumables ~13% home products ~11% apparel ~11% seasonal High velocity, generally nondiscretionary SKUs
Pricing
Lower prices than drug stores, gas stations, and grocery stores Comparable to mass merchants Avg. basket is ~$10 and 4 to 5 items
Customers
~55% of sales are to <$40k income households ~68% are over age 45
Real Estate
~7,000 stores ~7k selling sq ft per unit $8.50/sq ft avg. rent, short-term leases ~60% of sales in rural or small town locations
Wal-Mart and dollar stores can coexist. Management believes FDO has ~3% Wal-Mart and dollar stores can coexist. Management believes FDO has ~3% share of their core customers wallet compared to WMTs ~35% share share of their core customers wallet compared to WMTs ~35% share
Recession
Recession
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Recession
Recession
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Sales Mix
Consumables make up a growing percentage of Family Dollars sales volume. Consumables make up a growing percentage of Family Dollars sales volume. Growth in consumables is responsible for most of FDOs recent traffic and Growth in consumables is responsible for most of FDOs recent traffic and same-store sales growth same-store sales growth
Sales by Category
Seasonal & Electronics, 11% Apparel and Accessories, 11% Consumables, 65%
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Source: For research see Morgan Stanley, 2010; Bernstein, 2009; Dollar General management comments Map: UBS, 2010
30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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20% Avg.
Note: Years are Fiscal Year Ending August ROIC Defined as: (Taxed EBIT)/Average (Assets Cash A/P Accrued Expenses)
11
New Store Growth (~$60mm Capex, ~$15mm SG&A): 300 new store openings and 80-100 store closings, 3% net growth Long-term, management expects to grow store count 5-7% annually Store Renovation Program (~$60mm Capex, ~$30mm SG&A): Over 800 stores in FY2011 Going forward, management expects to renovate 1,000+ stores per year Share Repurchases & Dividends: Management has committed to buyback $750mm of shares by fall 2011 FDO raised its dividend this year to $.72/share ($85mm)
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8.0%
6.0% 2,500
4.0%
2.0%
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Estimated New Store Investment Capex SG&A Inventory, net Estimated Investment New Store Earnings Mature Revenue Estimated Mature 4-wall EBIT Margin Estimated EBIT % Pre-Tax Return
$ 200,000 50,000 75,000 $ 325,000 Low High $1,200,000 $1,200,000 10.00% 15.00% $ 120,000 $ 180,000 37% 55%
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Base Store Sales Sales Lift % Incremental Gross Margin Estimated Incremental EBIT % Pre-Tax Return
Low Mid High $ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000 10.00% 12.50% 15.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 36,000 45,000 54,000 31% 39% 47%
Lower than company average (35.7%) to account for increased consumables mix
FDO plans to renovate 6,000 stores FDO plans to renovate 6,000 stores
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Productivity Opportunity
Number of Stores Sales per Store Size of Average Store Consumables Mix Properties
~7,000 ~$1.2mm ~7k sqft 65% Leased, Mostly rural & suburban
~9,500 ~$1.4mm ~7k sqft 72% Leased, Mostly rural & suburban
Despite these similarities, the two business performance has diverged Despite these similarities, the two business performance has diverged
Family Dollar
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
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Note: Family Dollar results are calendarized to year end Feb. 18
$25.00
Family Dollar
KKR Buyout July 2007
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Note: Family Dollar results are calendarized to year end Feb. 19
$25.00
Family Dollar
KKR Buyout July 2007 37% Performance Gap
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Note: Family Dollar results are calendarized to year end Feb. 20
Productivity Gap
Family Dollars lower profitability is a result of both lower sales per square foot Family Dollars lower profitability is a result of both lower sales per square foot growth and lower margins growth and lower margins
DG
$200 $180
10.0%
FDO DG FDO
9.0%
FDO
8.0%
$160
DG
FDO
$140
7.0%
$120
6.0%
$100
5.0%
2003
2010
2003
2010
Dollar General
Family Dollar
Dollar General
Family Dollar
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Note: 2003 Family Dollar results are calendarized year end Feb. 2004 21
Family Dollar
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Note: Family Dollar results are calendarized to year end Feb. 22
10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
23
Family Dollar
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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Note: Family Dollar results are calendarized to year end Feb.
Higher sales per square foot Higher margins Faster profit growth
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Global Sourcing
Bypassing a broker and directly sourcing unlabeled and private labeled goods can offer 1,000bps to 1,500bps of margin improvement Currently, only 9% of FDOs goods are directly imported. We believe this number could approach 15% in the future
Improved Pricing
FDO recently implemented sophisticated pricing software allowing management to better manage regional pricing zones and elasticity data
Reduced Shrink
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Estimated Margin Improvement % of Sales Delta Global Sourcing 6% 1250 bps Private Label - Consumables 4% 1250 bps Shrink, Pricing Offsets - Private label reinvestment, inflation, mix Total Total 75 bps 50 bps 100 bps ? <225 bps
FDOs substantial gross margin opportunity and high percentage of sales in lowpriced necessities, provide a margin of safety against commodities inflation
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27 Note: Consumables are ~2/3 of sales a 6% change in consumables sales corresponds to a 4% change in total sales
SG&A includes ~$45mm (~50bps of sales) of renovation and new store pre-opening expense
28
Expanded hours FDO completed its expanded hours rollout Q2 FY2010 New store growth and renovations Could contribute 1.5% to 2.0% SSS at the current build rate New stores can contribute a ~10% comp in the second year Renovated stores are growing SSS at a double digit rate New fixtures to support continued consumables growth FDOs consumable mix trails DG by ~700bps Managing to lower stock outs Improved marketing
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Valuation
Stable, secular sales growth The opportunity to invest in an existing store base at high rates of return 10+ years of high return new unit growth
A modest forward multiple on consensus numbers (7.6% EBIT margin) 14.7x FY2012 EPS (August)
The option that FDO closes a large productivity gap with its closest competitor, Dollar General
Nothing FDO trades at nearly the same consensus forward EBIT multiple as DG (~9x), a company with similar growth prospects, excluding the productivity gap
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Consensus
FY 2012 Sales/sqft FY 2012 EBIT Margin EBIT/sqft FY 2012 EPS - Consensus FY 2012 EPS - Pro Forma
% Diff '12 EPS 17% $ 0.65 38% 1.46 62% $ 2.36 $ $ $ 3.68 6.03 92 70%
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Note: Estimates for DG are FY ending Jan. 2013, and for FDO FY ending Aug. 2012 32
FDO 2012 EBIT Build 2012 Selling Sqft (mm) Sales/sqft EBIT Margin Pro Forma FY 2012 EBIT Pro Forma FY 2012 EPS 2012 P/E Price @ 15x EPS % Return
% of DG Profit Gap Closed 0% 50% 100% 51 51 51 $ 180 $ 195 $ 210 7.6% 9.1% 10.5% $ 692 $ 893 $ 1,118 $ 3.68 $ 14.7x 56 $ 4% 4.79 $ 11.3x 73 $ 35% 6.03 8.9x 92 70%
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Note: Estimates for DG are FY ending Jan. 2013, and for FDO FY ending Aug. 2012 Price includes 1.5yr of dividends 33
Strategic Alternatives
$60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 1/4/2010
Trian Files 13-D Trian files a letter urging management to accept its offer or commit to closing the performance gap with Dollar General
4/4/2010
7/4/2010
10/4/2010
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1/4/2011
4/4/2011
Pershing Square purchased its position starting in February at prices between $43 and $54
FDO has implemented a poison pill at 9.9% that expires on March 2, 2012. FDO has implemented a poison pill at 9.9% that expires on March 2, 2012.
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Note: Pershing Shares as of May 24, 2011 36
$ $ $
3.91 0.23 55
$ $ $
4.04 0.37 57
$ $ $
4.19 0.51 59
Base EPS: Pro Forma Closing 50% of Productivity Gap FY2012 EPS $ 5.22 $ 5.47 Accretion $ 0.42 $ 0.68 Value per share at 14x EPS $ 73 $ 77
$ $ $
5.76 0.96 81
Assumptions: Incremental Debt Raised $ Total Net Debt (End FY2011) Net Debt/EBITDAR Assumed Cost of Total Debt (Gross)
Trian has sourced $5bn dollars of debt financing for their proposed deal 38 Trian has sourced $5bn dollars of debt financing for their proposed deal
Credit for Productivity Gap (% of total) $ Value per share @15x EPS Reduction in Overhead % Shared with Seller $ Value per share @15x EPS Gross Margin Expansion % Shared with Seller $ Value per share @15x EPS Total $ Premium to Market % Premium to Market Implied Takeout Price
Low Mid High 25% 50% 75% $ 9 $ 18 $ 27 20.0% 50.0% 3 $ 0.5% 50.0% 2 $ 14 $ 26% 68 $ 30.0% 50.0% 5 $ 1.0% 50.0% 4 $ 26 $ 48% 80 $ 40.0% 50.0% 6 1.5% 50.0% 6 38 71% 92
~15% of SG&A is corporate expenses. Distribution expense is also a potential source of SG&A synergy
$ $
Possible COGS synergies include: consolidating direct sourcing operations, private label brands, and national brand buyer power
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IRR Sensitivity (2015 Exit) 40.3% 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x 11.0x 11.5x 12.0x 12.5x Exit EBITDA Multiple (FY2016) 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 24% 27% 30% 33% 21% 24% 26% 29% 17% 20% 23% 26% 15% 17% 20% 23% 12% 15% 17% 20% 10% 13% 15% 17% 8% 10% 13% 15%
$ 67 70 74 78 81 85 88
Returns assume a 10% terminal EBIT margin, $230 sales sqft in 2015, and Returns assume a 10% terminal EBIT margin, $230 sales sqft in 2015, and $5bn of leverage (7x FY2011 EBITDAR) at 7.5% $5bn of leverage (7x FY2011 EBITDAR) at 7.5%
40
Valuation Summary
Even if were wrong on both the value of the standalone operating opportunity and the Even if were wrong on both the value of the standalone operating opportunity and the transaction value, we believe shareholders will still make money owning FDO due to the transaction value, we believe shareholders will still make money owning FDO due to the companys attractive growth opportunities and modest forward earnings multiple companys attractive growth opportunities and modest forward earnings multiple
$100 $95 $90 $85 $80 $75 $70 $65 $60
Trian Bid
$55 $50