CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

ENERGY & EMISSION: PRESENT & FUTURE INDIAN SCENARIOS

RANWA (Research & Action in Natural Wealth Administration), C-26/1, Ketan Heights, Off Karve Road, Kothrud, Pune 411038, INDIA Telefax: +91-20-5446518, Website: http://www.ranwa.org, Email: ranwa@pn3.vsnl.net.in At the Science Communication Global Meeting organized by CEE(Centre for Environment Education) at Ahmedabad, January 2005

INTRODUCTION Just as life cannot survive without water, it cannot grow without energy. Modern urban-industrial civilization grew only with discovery of new energy resources & technologies. India is poised for Providing Urban Amenities to Rural Areas (PURA) development paradigm of Indian government. Future energy solutions also need to be ecologically sustainable- that would not destroy local resources and would not compromise development ability of the next generations. Last 100 years of human development across globe based on fossil fuels as above has also skyrocketed not only energy consumption but also emission of carbon dioxide and other gases that have caused global warming and climate change. Future energy solution need to be innovative, blending the best of Local Resources and Traditional Skills (LRTS) with appropriate modern technology to generate options that meet the triple bottom line (a) economically viable (b) ecologically sustainable and (c) socially equitable i.e. making life easier for women in both the rich and the poor strata. There has been ample literature on maladies of present energy systems and possible remedies (Chokar, 2000). However, action is slow due to several economic, political, cultural constraints. Thus, blueprints remain confined to books and reality worsens, which is rarely sketched in planning strategy or action. The remedies are owned by the academicians but not the stakeholders and hence do not get implemented. To prepare more probable scenarios of tomorrow requires understanding stakeholders informed choices and integrating them in the planning. Such an attempt was made in India to paint not just rosy or desirable picture that are based on only the positive elements but rather to sketch the probable futures, depending on which response options stakeholders choose. At the beginning of new millennium India stands at crossroads, population, urbanisation and resource degradation having reached thresholds, beyond which continued trends might make conditions unfit for normal survival of humans and nature. To assess possible future scenarios, RANWA (Research & Action in Natural Wealth Administration), a Pune city based an NGO consulted stakeholder and literature, along with the Sustainable Transformation of Rural Areas (SuTRA) a research agency of Indian Institute of Science (IISc,), Bangalore and Covenant Centre for Development (CCD), an NGO based at Madurai. It was supported partially by Centre for Environmental Education (CEE), Ahmedabad and Ashoka Trust for research in Ecology & Environment (ATREE), Bangalore (through a seed grant from Millennium Assessment programme). Results of this study pertaining to energy & emissions are presented here for the benefit of planners to make informed personal and social choices, share these results widely and provide feedback to RANWA for improving the synthesis.

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

METHODOLOGY

Scenario sketching was done for 8 resource and constraints dimensions- food, water, fuel, fibre, pollution, health, culture and biodiversity. Urban areas were studied at Pune city in western India while rural areas were studied near Madurai city in southern India. The study and its conclusions are recognised as an no-funded but associated partner of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, as one of the 20 such local studies (website: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/subglobal.indiaurban.aspx) that us similar methodology and process following rigorous scientific standards & scrutiny. It basically involves assessing the present conditions and trends, besides their physical (land use, pollution, overuse etc.) and underlying socio-economic driving forces, identifying response options (political, economic, social and technological- PEST) and sketching future scenarios by imagining application of these response options. The process helps the stakeholders to understand better the merits and demerits of each option on all the 4 PEST parameters, and thus make an informed choice. The choices discussed belonged to 2 categories. One category of choices were hitech and hi cost one (techno-commercial scenario) i.e. Business as usual (BAU). Alternative path included low tech, low cost options, often employing a combination of Local Resources & traditional Skills (LRTS), along with appropriate modern technology. The combination was termed as Low External Input Sustainable Actions (LEISA). LEISA term is coined by farmer related organisation where A stands for Agriculture (www.ilea.org). The 2 optional scenarios were sketched with the purpose that stakeholders understand the long term and multi-dimensional implications of their choices. This will help them make better choices at personal and group (professional e.g. auto-owners) or social (at large e.g. municipal corporation) level. Pune city hosts 3.2 million (= M) people i.e. nearly 0.6 M families, in an area of 700 sq. km. This implies population density of 4570 person/ sq. km. Immigration rate is 1% of the population annually. About 0.1 M families are rich (with a car), 0.2 M families are middle class (with an owned house 2 wheeler automobile), 0.3 M families are poor, that lack above. Of the poor, 0.2 M families- are slum dwellers (30% of total). The rich are engaged in industry or trade & as senior government officers. The middle class is mostly clerical- including teaching etc. while the poor are mostly labour, including contractual at times. PRESENT (2004) CONDITIONS & TRENDS Fuel- Transport consumes about 250 t of petroleum products viz. petrol (50%), diesel (33%) & kerosene (17%). Some 1.3 million vehicles dot the city, 74% of these being 2 wheelers, 4 private wheelers as 12%, buses 8% & 3 wheelers for public transport 5%. Some 0.4 million 2 wheeler owners consume 0.5 petrol daily on an average (i.e. 25 km) for 5 days a week. Besides, 0.2 M auto-rickshaws & 0.1 M cars each consume nearly 3 litre of petrol (30 km) weekly. This implies 150, 000 i.e. 0.15 M litre i.e. 120 t petrol daily. Some 50,000 public transport buses carries daily 0.6 million people, & requires 25,000 litre diesel daily, while private vehicles numbering 4 times more & require 3 times more, implying 100,000 i.e. 0.1 M litre i.e. 80 t diesel daily. 2

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

Of the poor families 0.1 M use Kerosene, daily about 0.1 litre, which amounts to 10,000 litres i.e. 6 t. Another 0.1 M poor families, primarily slum dwellers use 500 gm of biomass & waste (twigs, waste paper, plastic bags etc.) for cooking, totalling to 50 t/day. The medium & the rich citizens use LPG about 200 gm/ day/ family; amounting to 50 t/day. The rich also use electricity driven microwave oven, claiming to be efficient, but causing 30% transmission losses & dirty coal emissions faraway. The hotel & food industry requirements are not calculated separately, for the sake of convenience.
VISIBLE FULE: Petrol 120 t (168,000 L); Diesel 80 t (110,000 L), Kerosene 6 t (55,000 L), Gas 50 t, Biomass 50 t INVISIBLE/ FARAWAY FUEL: Coal 5000 t= 10 MU (KWH) electricity CITY VISIBLE/ LOCAL EMISSION 300 t carbons chemicals (CO, CO2, HC, NOx, PB, Su, SPM) INVISIBLE/ REMOTE EMISSION 5,000 t coal burnt faraway

Fig. 1: Pune City Ecosystem daily energy- emission flows: 2004 - Population 3.2 Million Note- Pollution caused due to consumers goods, fertilisers etc. & due to shops is not included. Also excluded here are flows of long lasting structural material viz. Cement, Metal, Glass.

Private transport uses about 6 times the fuel (40 passenger-km / litre) regardless of mode (car, or 2-3 wheeler) than the public (250 passenger-km/ litre per bus). Private transport also causes traffic congestion due to higher passenger space. Yet, it is promoted commercially, as a status symbol. About 50,000 auto rickshaws (6 seater diesel type) manufactured by a local company purchased 2 years ago were legally prevented last year by the petrol driven 3 seater Auto Rickshaw association & the PMC Bus Transport Corporation, who argued that the 6 seater vehicles caused excessive lead & SPM load. It ignored that pollution per capita in 6 seater vehicle is 50% of the 3 seater, though pollutants differ. The 6 seater was more convenient & cheaper than 3 seater and buses. Pollution levels have not reduced as per the latest surveys but PMC bus profits have soared again by 20% and 3-seaters benefited. The diesel autos niche is being filled now by a multinational company, claiming to be eco friendly, in a silent business war. Proposals are prepared for sky-bus or Metro railway or both in the next 5 years, supposedly to lighten the traffic burden, supposedly to reduce need for private transport, but the cost & efficiency claims are questioned variously. Many flyovers have been constructed through private agencies at huge costs but traffic congestion continues & pedestrians or cyclists (once the fame of Pune) are bypassed. Electricity use is about 6-8 unit (KWH) per house daily, of which luxury items viz. water heater (1 unit), refrigerator (2 units), fan (1 unit) consume about 75% energy, that can be saved. Oven (1 unit) & TV (1 unit) also need high energy. Need based items viz. tube lights consume much less energy (1 unit). Houses need about 180 units per month & 0.6 M houses imply 108 M units pm & 1300 MU pa. Commercial demand (both shops and industry) is double this size- 2400 MU, others being negligible- street, water lifting etc.

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

Need for cooler fan is more due to cement blocks & low height (3 m high roof) flats in the apartment, that are 2-3 0C hotter than the tall brick houses. Commercial electricity consumption (shops) is 50% f the housing in total, but much of it is excess that can be saved. Industry needs about double the domestic electricity2,000 MU, implying burning of 1.2 M t of coal burning in faraway situated thermal plants. Coal provides about 80% of electricity in the Maharashtra state. Transmission & distribution losses are as high as 30%. Thus, for each 1.4 unit generate, 1 unit is used, while 0.4 units is lost. The loss is compensated by hydropower that meets much of the remaining 20% of the demand, as nuclear & wind, solar power is negligible. Total direct household energy consumption per capita daily is 2 units (KwH) due to electricity, 0.3 units due to usage of 0.1 litre of petroleum fuel. Another 2 units of industrial (production) and commercial (marketing) consumption, if another 2 units worth produce is marketed elsewhere. Thus, a citizen consume 4.3 units of energy daily, equivalent to employing 2.1 energy slaves. Basic survival (food) energy is 2 units per person, derived from food. Transporting it from other states (e.g. Wheat from MP and Rice from AP) could easily imply another 1 unit. Other imports- cloth, furniture, shelter etc. could easily average pr day another 1 unit. Thus total energy consumed directly & indirectly by a Pune citizen amounts to 8.3 units. Indirect consumption of 6.3 units is double the average Indian energy consumption level of 1.1 litre of petrol i.e. 3.3 units, based on 1996 data (Chokar, 2000). Energy consumption levels of the 30% population in the cities are higher than that of the 70% people in villages, who consume indirectly 2.3 units daily per capita (30% less than average 3.3 units), plus 2 units of food, totalling to 4.3 units. Hence, the average Indian energy use today maybe 3.3 indirectly and 5.2 units in total, including food. Emission:- Nearly 340 t of carbon fuels are burnt for transport & cooking in the city daily, producing more amount of CO2, CO, besides many other noxious gases in smaller but above danger level amounts. Supreme Court had warned 7 cities to reduce pollution to follow safety levels 2 years ago, with in vain, unless someone files a Public Interest Litigation once again (PIL). But there is high chance of it being ignored as during October 2001. Air pollution exceeded safety level across 58% of the city area, especially during winter, as per a recent GIS study by Pune University. Noise pollution is high- 90 decibel, and rarely 120-130 decibel, during the festivals due to firecrackers. Each house causes burning of 12 kg of coal daily & 4 t annually (0.8 t/ capita) faraway. City electricity consumption causes noxious emissions from about 14 t coal daily at thermal power plants, amounting to 5,000 t/ yr. BUSINESS AS USUAL (BAU) SCENARIO Fuel- Transport would continue to consume similar level- 260 t- of petroleum products but changed ratio: petrol (40%), diesel (40%), Biodiesel & Ethanol 7 % each; Kerosene (4%). Ethanol production could be high but sales would be limited due to prohibitive costing. Biodiesel yield is overestimated today to be 200 M t pa, while planting even 40 M ha could generate only 40 M t seeds & 10 M t oil, besides 30 M t manure- that would replace 30% of the chemical fertilisers.

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

The number of vehicles could have declined by 35% to 0.9 M due to high costs, traffic jam, accidents etc. About 0.4 million 2 wheeler owners would consume 0.5 petrol daily on an average (i.e. 25 km) for 5 days a week, implying 100 t petrol daily. Nearly 0.1 million automobile owners would have discarded using it, due above constraints.
VISIBLE FULE: Petrol 100 t (140,000 L); Diesel 100 t (140,000 L), Biodiesel 7 t, Ethanol 7 t, Kerosene 10 t Gas 50 t, Biomass 50 t INVISIBLE/ FARAWAY FUEL: Coal 4000 t, Gas 1,000 t= 10 MU (KWH) electricity VISIBLE/ LOCAL EMISSION 310 t carbons chemicals (CO, CO2, HC, NOx, PB, Su, SPM)

CITY
INVISIBLE/ REMOTE EMISSION 5,000 t coal/ GAS burnt faraway

Fig. 2: Pune City Ecosystem daily energy- emission flows: BAU 2020 - Population 4.2 Million Note- Pollution caused due to consumers goods, fertilisers etc. & due to shops is not included. Also excluded here are flows of long lasting structural material viz. Cement, Metal, Glass.

About 0.25 M auto-rickshaws would be largely diesel based then, as also 0.1 M cars would each consume nearly 2 litre of diesel (20 km) weekly, implying 100, 000 i.e. 0.1 M litre i.e. 70 t diesel daily. Public transport buses would carry daily 0.8 million people, & require 40,000 litre diesel. Private vehicles (4 times more) would need 2 times more diesel. This implies 120,000 i.e. 0.12 M litre i.e. 100 t diesel. Fossil fuel supplies could become scarse & costlier due to global exhaustion or political instability in the Gulf. East coast of India has shown promising deposits in 2004, which could be harvested since 2007, thereby increasing self reliance, but also enhancing the emissions & climate change risk. Importing oil from South American counties such as Venezuela would have been successful but costlier and emit more carbon during transport than imports from Gulf. Sky-bus and Metro railway could have both lightened the traffic burden a bit and saved fuel consumption and travel costs, by curtailing private transport. It would imply a cleaner city due to lower emission than not today but if present vehicle/ traveller ratio would have been maintained. These electronic public transport vehicles would cause coal & gas based thermal generator pollution faraway, using all the household electricity savings owing to high cost. Passenger load would increase 30% (same as population) but enhanced public transport would reduce traffic load by 10%. Of the poor families 0.2 M would use Kerosene, daily about 0.1 litre, which amounts to 20,000 litres i.e. 12 t- double . Another 0.1 M poor families, primarily slum dwellers would continue to misery of using 500 gm of biomass & waste (twigs, waste paper, plastic bags etc.) for cooking, totalling to 50 t/ day, causing continued health hazard. The medium & the rich class- 0.3 M families- would use 25% less LPG due to high cost, about 150 gm/ day/ family; amounting to 50 t/ day for the city as of today. Hotel & food industry requirements are not separately worked here, but would double. Electricity use would drop by 15% to 5 units (KWH) per house daily, due to both more efficient technology and higher costs as private companies distribute electricity. 5

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

Luxury items viz. water heater, refrigerator, fan would continue to consume about 75% energy, but air conditioners sales may not grow much. Houses would need about 150 units per month & 0.8 M houses imply 120 M units pm & 1440 MU pa, only 10% higher than today, despite to 30% population growth, due to technological & economic change. Commercial electricity consumption (shops) would continue to be 50% f the housing in total, but not saved much. Industry would need about double the domestic electricity- 2,000 MU, implying burning of 1.2 M t of coal burning in faraway situated thermal plants. Coal would continue to provide about 80% of electricity in the Maharashtra state & transmission & distribution losses up to 30%. Hydropower would meet lesser- 15% of the demand than 20% today, both as demand grew & reservoir became less efficient. Nuclear power production around Mumbai declined initially due to short supply of fuel from Russia but restored partially later as it tried to claim carbon credit from Kyoto protocol. Wind, solar power share in the energy provision rose 2% each as Energy Legislation 2003 permitted decentralised production & supply of electricity. Emission: Nearly 325 t of carbon fuels are burnt for transport & cooking in the city daily, producing more amount of CO2, CO, besides many other noxious gases in smaller but above danger level amounts. Repeated PIL could hardly reduce pollution by 25% but still marginally above safety levels. Air pollution exceeded safety level across 58% of the city area, especially during winter, as per a recent GIS study by Pune University. Noise pollution enhanced to 100 decibel on an average, but maximum level reduced to 110 decibel, due to strict regulation of firecrackers etc. during festivals. Electricity consumption generates noxious emissions from about 14 t coal daily at thermal power plants, amounting to 5,000 t/ yr. Each house causes burning of 12 kg of coal daily & 4 t annually (0.8 t/ capita). Carbon emissions per capita annually would grow marginally above the present value of 10 t pa, despite Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects under the Kyoto convention, due to continued trade and transport. Daily per capita energy consumption would decline marginally from the present to 6 units. Too few people would realise too late that technology alone cannot solve the societal problems without comprising addiction to comforts and luxuries. LOW EXTERNAL INPUT SUSTAINABLE ACTION (LEISA) SCENARIO Fuel- Transport would consume 30% less fuel- 140 t- of petroleum products with changed ratio: petrol (40%), diesel (32%), Biodiesel (7%) & Ethanol (14 %). Ethanol could substitute petrol more as costs of petrol would be higher due to globally reduced supplies, and its transport from Gulf to India would be costlier, than locally produced ethanol. Biodiesel yield would be 4 M t in Maharashtra state due to plantations on 16 M ha of wasteland and farm bunds, that yield 16 t seeds annually- 10% of national produce feasible that time. Besides, it would generate 12 M t of organic, nitrogen rich manure- that would replace over 50% of the chemical fertilisers, which would be costlier then. Sales of manure could compensate for losses from oil sales at below production rate. The number of vehicles could have declined by 50% to 0.6 M due to high costs, traffic jam, accidents etc. About 0.2 million 2 wheeler owners would consume 0.5 petrol daily on an average (i.e. 25 km) for 5 days a week, implying 50 t petrol. Nearly 0.2 million

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

automobile owners would have discarded using it, due above constraints. About 0.20 M. Auto-rickshaws 3 wheelers- would be largely diesel based then, as also 0.06 M cars would each consume nearly 2 litre of diesel (20 km) weekly, implying 70, 000 i.e. 0.07 M litre i.e. 50 t diesel daily. About 0.05 M 3 wheelers and 0.04 M cars would be disused and thus avoided. Public transport buses would carry daily 0.8 million people, & require 40,000 litre diesel. Private vehicles would need 1.5 times more diesel, being 2 times more, not 4 times more like in BAU scenario. Fossil fuel supplies could become scarce & costlier due to global exhaustion or political instability in the Gulf. East coast of India has shown promising deposits in 2004, but could not be harvested until 2010, and at low rates thereafter due to extraction difficulty and high costs. Thus, it would increase self reliance, but also marginally enhance emissions & climate change risk. Sky-bus and Metro railway could have both lightened the traffic burden a bit and saved fuel consumption and travel costs, by curtailing private transport. It would imply a cleaner city due to lower emission than not today but if present vehicle/ traveller ratio would have been maintained. These electronic public transport vehicles would cause coal & gas based thermal generator pollution faraway, using all the household electricity savings owing to high cost.
VISIBLE FULE: Petrol 60 t; Diesel

50 t, Bio-diesel 10 t, Ethanol 20 t, Kerosene 5 t, Gas & Biomass 50 t each

INVISIBLE/ FARAWAY FUEL:

VISIBLE/ LOCAL EMISSION 200 t carbons chemicals (CO, CO2, HC, NOx, PB, Su, SPM)

CITY
INVISIBLE/ REMOTE EMISSION 1,300 t coal/ GAS burnt faraway

Coal 800 t, Gas 500 t= 3 MU, wind, solar 10% each

Fig. 2: Pune City Ecosystem daily energy- emission flows: LEISA 2020 - Population 4 Million Note- Pollution caused due to consumers goods, fertilisers etc. & due to shops is not included. Also excluded here are flows of long lasting structural material viz. Cement, Metal, Glass, structural material viz. Cement, Metal, Glass.

Of the poor families 0.2 M using Kerosene, daily about 0.1 litre, which amounts to 20,000 litres i.e. 12 t- double . Another 0.1 M poor families, primarily slum dwellers would continue to misery of using 500 gm of biomass & waste (twigs, waste paper, plastic bags etc.) for cooking, totalling to 50 t/ day, causing continued health hazard. The medium & the rich class- 0.3 M families- would use 25% less LPG due to high cost, about 150 gm/ day/ family; amounting to 50 t/ day for the city as of today. Hotel & food industry requirements are not separately worked here, but would halve, unlike BAU. Electricity use would drop by 50% to 3 units (KWH) per house daily, due to both higher costs as private companies distribute electricity and more efficient technology. Luxury items viz. water heater, refrigerator, fan would be avoided thereby saving about 75% energy. Houses would thus need about 50 units per month & 0.7 M houses imply 35 M units pm & 400 MU pa, which only 70% lower than today, despite to 10% population growth, due to technological & economic change. Commercial electricity consumption (shops) would be cut by half to 25% of the housing & that of todays consumption to 100

CEE- ESF- Energy Futures- Pune

MU pa through higher tariff and taxes. Shoppers would have also realised that excess advertisement doe not enhance sales and reduced propaganda does not affect sales if the product quality is good and its demand is genuine. Industry would continue need about double the domestic electricity- 800 MU, but 50% lower than today, due to reduced market demand after the economic glut likely during 2009. Coal provided about 60% of electricity in the Maharashtra state. Transmission & distribution losses were avoided by meeting 20% of the energy demand through Solar & Wind technology, through low interest loans and tax incentives to local producer companies (As per the Companies Act amendment of 2001, and Electricity Act, 2002). Hydropower would meet 20% of the demand, but reservoirs had become less efficient. Nuclear power production around Mumbai declined initially due to short supply of fuel from Russia but restored partially later as it tried to claim carbon credit from Kyoto protocol. But nuclear option was not promoted further due to long term social and environmental risks it posed. Emission: Nearly 325 t of carbon fuels are burnt for transport & cooking in the city daily, producing more amount of CO2, CO, besides many other noxious gases in smaller but above danger level amounts. Repeated PIL could hardly reduce pollution by 25% but still marginally above safety levels. Air pollution exceeded safety level across 58% of the city area, especially during winter, as per a recent GIS study by Pune University. Noise pollution would enhance to 100 decibel on an average, but maximum level was reduced to 110 decibel, due to strict regulation of firecrackers and band etc. during the festivals. Electricity consumption related emissions about 14 t coal daily at thermal power plants, amounting to 5,000 t/ yr. Each house causes burning of 12 kg of coal daily & 4 t annually (0.8 t/ capita). Carbon emission per capita would thus reduce by 50% to 5 t pa, due to all above cuts. Total energy consumption would halve to a peaceful 3 units. Lessons
(A) While planning future scenarios and informing users about merits & demerits of response options, possible changes in not only internal but also external system parameters must be examined. (B) Both the scenarios suggest that prior planning is necessary to achieve societal objectives, it is not sufficient, due to unexpected surprises in between e.g. terrorist attack in the Gulf disrupting the fossil fuel supply. Thus, one must try to build flexible systems suitable for adaptive management in changing circumstances, than hi tech, hi cost rigid options such as flyovers, sky bus etc. (C) LEISA strategy is more suitable for adaptive management due to its low tech, low cost & flexible nature; required for resilience, low mobility & more peace.

References
RANWA, 2004. Indian Urban Millennium Resource Assessment by Naturalists (IURMAN). Website: www.ranwa.org/mea.htm Chokar Kiran (ed., 2000). Energy: A enviroscope manual. Centre for Environment Education (CEE), Ahmedabad and World Resource Institute (WRI), Washington.