Available online at: www.ct.

gov/OPM/CriminalJustice/Research

July 2012

OPM - Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division

Monthly Indicators Report

Published by the Connecticut Statistical Analysis Center at the Connecticut Office of Policy & Management

Highlights
On July 1, 16,591 people were incarcerated in state prison facilities. The last time this figure was lower on July 1 was in 1998. In June, 978 offenders completed their prison sentences. Of these, 821 received at least one day of Risk Reduction Earned Credit (RREC). Among offenders who discharged with credit, 359 were already in community programs; 462 were discharged directly from prison. Chart 2A shows the number of offenders who discharged their prison sentences between January 2010 and June 2012. RREC was expanded to prisoners during November 2011; the chart shows that following an initial spike in discharges due to the retroactive application of RREC credits, the volume of monthly discharges has not risen dramatically. The number of offenders on home confinment for DUI and minor drug st offenses rose to 119 by July 1 (see table 2). It has been reported that up to 60% of these offenders continue to hold jobs while on home confinement. Page 2 has been revised. In future issues, the charts and tables at the bottom of page 2 will change each month. They will feature more trend data and information on developments in the states criminal justice system. In this issue, page 2 contains 1) a chart of monthly prison discharges from Jan. 2010 through June 2012,and 2) st a chart of the July 1 prison population from 1992 to 2012,

Prison Population Forecast

The prison population continues to drop at a rate and in a manner that defies historical modelling. Between October 1, 2011 and July 1, 2012, the prison system shrank by 1,171 inmates (Note: table 1 and chart 1 report figures by the Average Daily Count, not the first-of-the-month count). This rate of decline in the prison population is without precedent in Connecticut. Last month, the prison count fell below the level that OPM projected for January 2013.
TABLE 1 Prison Population Forecast
Actual (*Avg OPM 2011 Daily Count) Forecast Diff. % FEB '12 17,224* 17,224 MAR 17,117* 17,171 -0.3% APR 16,973* 17,172 -1.2% MAY 16,829* 17,100 -1.6% JUN 16,698* 17,143 -2.6% JUL 16,586* 17,213 -3.6% AUG 17,238 SEP 17,263 OCT 17,238 NOV 17,121 DEC 17,013 JAN '13 16,587 FEB 16,756 * Average Daily Count, first week of month

OPMs prison population projection is based on a model that relies on 25 years of historical data on the Connecticut prison system. The model produces a set of scenarios that project different rates of growth or decline in the prison population. In consultation with experts who are knowledgeable about current conditions and operations of the prison system, OPM selects a specific scenario to use as its projection over the following year. In January 2012, OPM assumed that the prison population would continue to decline as it has in recent years. What OPM did not anticipate was the steep and prolonged decline that we have witnessed since October 2011.
CHART 1 Actual ADC of the prison population against the OPM forecast January 1, 2011 through February 1, 2013
18,000

17,800
17,600 17,400

17,774

17,213
17,200 17,000 16,800 16,600 16,400
MAY
MAY

ADC - Actual OPM Projection

16,586
FEB APR FEB APR OCT OCT MAR MAR NOV
JAN '12

NOV

AUG

AUG

DEC

DEC

JUN

JUN

July 2012 Monthly Indicators

Page 1 of 4

JAN '13

JAN '11

FEB

SEP

SEP

JUL

JUL

CHART 2

Connecticut Criminal Justice System Monthly Overview

This chart contains monthly totals for June 2012 and figures reported for July 1, 2012. Asterisks (*) indicate the count for July 1, 2012. Figures enclosed by parenthesis are for the previous month. Data sources include: Arrests-OBTS, Court and probation data: CSSD, all other data CT DOC

CHART 2A
1500 1000

Monthly discharges, EOS

Offenders completing their sentences (EOS)

1351

1117

1096

1037

1011

996

978

957

952

948

940

936

934

931

930

919

915

910

899

894

889

887

886

885

884

878
JAN '10

870

864

853

839

500

0
FEB FEB FEB AUG AUG

NOV

NOV

JUL

JUL

MAY

MAY

MAY

JUN

JUN

JUN

SEP

SEP

APR

DEC

APR

DEC

APR

CHART 2B
20000 18000 16000

MAR

MAR

MAR

JAN '11

JAN '12

Connecticuts Prison Population on July 1st, 1992 - 2012

OCT

OCT

11769

11022
1992

14000 12000 10000

14889

14967

15588

15909

16776

17459

17700

18873

19121

18582

18150

18568

18892

19413

18891

18431

17631

16591

14125
1994

July 2012 Monthly Indicators

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Page 2 of 4

TABLE 2 DOC Population Counts, First of the Month

Board of Pardons and Parole

2011
May 1st

2011
June 1

2012
July 1

2011
July 1

% Change
Monthly Annual

DOC Facility
Federal/Other Sentenced Special Parole Pre-trial 158 12,749 327 3,624 16,858 138 12,666 342 3,572 16,718 136 12,483 344 3,628 16,591 139 13,590 322 3,580 17,631 -1.4% -1.4% 0.6% 1.6% -0.8% -2.2% -8.1% 6.8% 1.3% -5.9%

TABLE 4 - Prisoners with sentences greater than 24 months

Total DOC Community

Transfer Parole Parole/ Parcom Total Parole Parcom @ CT Furlough Trans Placement Home confinement/DUI Halfway House Total Comm Release TS Parole Transfer Parole Special Parole TS Total Special Parole

MAY JUNE JULY

Parole elligible 8,529 8,456 8,384

Not elligible 831 835 838

7 1,287 1,114 173 24 11 81 1,082 875 16 79 0 112 724 1,129 4,345

6 1,308 1,133 175 25 17 103 1,080 879 15 81 0 105 776 1,126 4,441

6 1,336 1,166 170 29 22 119 1,017 828 10 70 0 109 785 1,130 4,444

30 1,789 1,613 176 2 13 0 1,105 878 14 103 0 109 996 914 4,849

0.0% 2.1% 2.9% -2.9% 29.4% 15.5% -5.8% -5.8% -33.3% -13.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

-80.0% -25.3% -27.7% -3.4% 69.2% -8.0% -5.7% -28.6% -32.0% 0.0% -21.2% 23.6% -8.4%

TABLE 4A Paroles Granted, New cases Hearings Granted Rate APR 213 162 76% MAY 200 150 75% JUNE 150 114 76% TABLE 4B Other Parole Hearings Revocations Rescissions Reparoled Denied Reparoled Denied APR 34 24 15 13 MAY 63 32 14 16 JUN 37 20 14 11

16.0% 1350.0%

Public Defender Services

TABLE 5 Public Defender Cases Cases appointed Cases disposed GA JD GA JD MAR 5,671 225 4,245 161 APR 5,292 208 4,130 178 MAY 6,112 322 4,556 183

Total

TABLE 3 DOC Admissions and Releases, Monthly Totals*

2011
Apr.

CSSD Adult Probation

TABLE 6 Monthly CSSD Direct Sentenced & Probationer Community Placements
Community OutInpatient/ Based patient Resident Total FEB 787 1,223 22* 2,032 MAR 1,263 809 31 2,103 APR 1,118 823 22 1,963 *Inpatient residential figure for February reflects a counting change by CSSD. May data was not available at the time of publication.

2011
May 102 234 5 54 3 49 60 63 403 100 1,665 2,404

2012
June 79 187 5 35 2 39 59 47 320 69 1,676 2,262

2011
June 106 212 2 58 5 32 37 43 367 100 1748 2,433

% Change
Monthly Annual -22.5% -20.1% -35.2% -20.4% -1.7% -25.4% -20.6% -31.0% 0.7% -5.9% -25.5% -11.8% -39.7% 21.9% 59.5% 9.3% -12.8% -31.0% -4.1% -7.0%

Admissions
Federal/Other Returns Transfer Parole Parole Trans Plac/Furlough HWH TS Special Parole New Sentence
VOP

93 168 0 43 1 41 45 38 323 91 1,555 2,139

Pre-trial Diversion and Supervision

TABLE 7 Pre-trial and split sentence starts
Pre-trial Bail Client Supv. Split Sentence Case Starts Starts Starts 2,389 2,402 455 2,588 2,567 478 2,464 2,269 484

Pre-trial

Total Releases
Transfer Parole Parole Trans Plac/Furlough Home Confinement DUI HWH TS Special Parole End of Sentence

2 158 32 55 183 231 70 853 1,584

1 202 37 52 244 272 74 952 1,834

2 174 38 61 164 286 84 978 1,787

18 187 7 0 182 294 75 870 1,633

100.0% -13.9% 2.7% 17.3% -32.8% 5.1% 13.5% 2.7% -2.6%

-88.9% -7.0% 442.9% -9.9% -2.7% 12.0% 12.4% 9.4%

APR MAY JUN

TABLE 8 The Jail Re-interview Program

Total Pre-trial Releases*

Did not return from Court Release to Bond

575 401

584 472

581 483

560 523

-0.5% 2.3%

3.8% -7.6%

MAR APR MAY JUNE

Offenders Offenders interviewed released 1,258 702 1,048 660 1,358 733 1,240 751

Releases last year 819 673 719 725

*Monthly totals count occurrences, not individuals.

Data Notes: Figures are based on operational data available at the time of this report. Data in subsequent issues may not agree.

July 2012 Monthly Indicators

Page 3 of 4

CHART 3 Total Prison Population July 1, 2012 to July 7, 2012

2000

CHART 6 Monthly DOC Admissions by Type May 2011 through June 2012
1800 1600 1400

16,750
16,700

Average Daily Count: 16,586 ADC Last month: 16,698

16,624

16,650
16,600

1200

16,591

16,592

16,586

16,594 16,574 16,538

1000 800 600 400 200

Accused Community Returns

Federal/ Other New Sentence

16,550
16,500 16,450

Sunday Monday Tuesday July 1 July 2 July 3

Wed. July 4

Thurs, July 5

Friday Saturday July 6 July 7

MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 2012

CHART 4 Prison Population, first-of-month January 1 through December 1

19,000

CHART 7 Readmissions from Community Release June 2012

80 70

2010
18,500

2011

2012
18,431

60 50
40

Abscond or Escape Criminal Offense Technical Violation 5

18,000

22
1 21 32 16 3

3 10

17,631
17,500

30 20

34

17,000

10 0
16,591
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

13
Parole TS

20
Halfway House Special Parole

16,500

CHART 5Monthly Statewide Criminal Arrests 2011 versus 2012

12,000 10,000
9067 8,660

CHART 8 Parole, TS and Special Parole, supervised cases June 1, 2011 through July 1, 2012
2,200 2,000 1,800 Parole Special Parole TS
1,425 1,406 1,391 1,366
1,360

10,847

1,892

1,883

1,870

1,861

1,727

1,653

8,000 6,000 4,000

8,543

8,406

8343

8,249

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,010

Criminal arrests, 2012

1,356

1,351

1,329

1,239
795

1,000
1,023

2,000 0

Criminal arrests, 2011

800 600

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY '12

Note: Data for all charts, with the exception of Chart 5, was supplied by CT DOC. Data for Chart 5 is based on new case starts in the state Offender-Based Tracking System (OBTS).

July 2012 Monthly Indicators

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