Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Investment Summary
Additional Company Information
Reformulated Balance Sheet
Adjusted Income Statement
Free Cash Flow
DCF Valuation
IRR Valuation
DIT - Appendix
Investment Summary
Company Name:
Ticker:
Recommendation:
Market Data
Stock Price
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Market Capitalization
Net Debt
Enterprise Value
Equity Valuation
Base Case Valuation
% probability
Downside Valuation
% probability
Adjusted Equity Value
Margin of Safety
Base Case Return Projections
3 YR IRR %
4 YR IRR %
5 YR IRR %
$77.05
762.793
$58,773
$23,039
$81,812
$132.61
80.0%
$81.71
20.0%
$122.43
37.1%
23.4%
21.6%
20.8%
$356.7
67,829.1
11,855.7
10,956.8
1,069.1
$92,067.4
$28,192.6
$1,663.3
24,936.6
4,500.0
32,774.8
$92,067.4
31-De c-10
Financial Data
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
EPS
FCF per share
FYE
C AGR
CAGR
30-S e p-10
('06-'10)
('10-'15)
4.7%
18.9%
23.4%
63.9%
43.2%
4.3%
9.7%
10.2%
11.5%
9.3%
$1,010,538
$17,263
$15,526
$11.53
$12.76
FYE
Ave .
Ave.
Margins
Gross Margin %
EBIT Margin %
Net Margin %
Dividend Payout %
30-S e p-10
('06-'10)
('11-'15)
FYE
Projected
Projected
30-S e p-10
30-Sep-11
30-Sep-12
0.1x
4.7x
5.3x
6.8x
16.2%
0.1x
4.3x
4.7x
5.9x
17.7%
0.1x
3.8x
4.2x
5.1x
19.6%
Debt/Total Cap.
Debt/EBITDA
EBIT/Interest
30.5%
1.4x
10.3x
29.4%
1.3x
16.4x
28.7%
1.1x
19.8x
Pre-Tax ROIC
ROE
33.4%
26.3%
34.6%
23.8%
37.0%
22.1%
DIT - Appendix
7.1%
1.5%
0.9%
5.0%
7.4%
1.3%
0.6%
1.9%
7.2%
1.8%
1.1%
3.6%
DIT - Appendix
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
30-Sep-06
30-Sep-07
30-Sep-08
30-Sep-09
30-Sep-10
30-Sep-11
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-13
30-Sep-14
30-Sep-15
481.1
717.6
457.7
309.9
356.7
425.0
443.2
461.2
479.5
498.3
Receivables
27,815.8
27,848.9
27,198.4
28,393.2
27,903.7
29,690.1
30,965.4
32,224.2
33,499.4
34,811.5
Inventories
42,756.8
29,407.2
29,738.7
37,331.0
34,486.0
35,006.0
36,505.7
38,053.2
39,578.9
41,145.1
5,369.2
5,935.2
3,519.7
1,728.6
3,013.5
2,443.6
2,548.6
2,652.2
2,757.1
2,865.1
63,073.2
64,240.4
68,506.7
64,917.7
66,279.9
69,064.4
72,010.4
74,916.5
77,881.1
80,931.7
Accounts Payable
14,633.1
15,253.6
14,738.2
15,222.7
16,656.3
16,655.7
17,361.4
18,056.1
18,770.3
19,505.2
Accrued Expenses
4,687.8
5,293.9
5,275.7
6,768.9
6,007.9
6,693.4
6,980.9
7,264.7
7,552.1
7,848.0
1,879.7
2,202.6
2,636.7
3,257.8
3,161.8
3,399.8
3,545.8
3,690.0
3,836.0
3,986.3
168.9
367.8
313.0
3,984.3
2,366.7
3,187.3
3,324.2
3,459.4
3,596.3
3,737.1
21,369.5
23,117.9
22,963.6
29,233.7
28,192.6
29,936.1
31,212.4
32,470.1
33,754.7
35,076.6
41,703.7
41,122.6
45,543.1
35,684.0
38,087.2
39,128.3
40,798.0
42,446.4
44,126.4
45,855.1
4,420.5
(9,859.1)
2,403.2
1,041.0
1,669.8
1,648.4
1,680.0
1,728.7
14,823.9
Taxes Payable
Operating Current Liabilities - Total
Net Working Capital
Increase (Decrease) in NWC
Plant, Property & Equip (Net)
(581.1)
12,528.5
11,190.8
10,907.5
11,256.6
11,855.7
12,218.1
12,853.7
13,491.5
14,145.3
1,247.5
1,093.2
1,123.3
1,026.4
481.6
743.7
775.7
807.2
839.1
872.0
13,776.0
12,283.9
12,030.8
12,283.0
12,337.2
12,961.8
13,629.3
14,298.7
14,984.4
15,695.9
55,479.7
53,406.5
57,573.9
47,967.0
50,424.5
52,090.0
54,427.3
56,745.1
59,110.8
61,551.1
Goodwill
5,848.8
5,848.8
5,848.8
5,848.8
6,149.2
6,149.2
6,149.2
6,149.2
6,149.2
6,149.2
3,439.8
3,400.1
3,373.3
3,373.3
3,373.3
3,373.3
3,373.3
3,373.3
3,373.3
3,373.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,434.4
1,231.9
1,029.4
826.9
624.4
421.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
185.6
388.1
590.6
793.1
995.6
1,198.1
64,768.3
62,655.4
66,796.0
57,189.1
61,566.9
63,232.5
65,569.8
67,887.5
70,253.3
72,693.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
31,860.2
(7,504.5)
(8,502.2)
(8,533.2)
0.0
0.0
(7,504.5)
(8,502.2)
(8,533.2)
0.0
0.0
Other
Non-Operating Assets (Net of Liabilities)
Beg. Excess Cash
Plus: Net Cash Flow
End. Excess Cash
TOTAL FUNDS INVESTED - USES
Revolving Credit Facility
Long Term Debt
Debt and Debt Equivalents - Total
Deferred Tax Liabilities (Assets)
0.0
7,316.3
15,553.3
20,888.9
7,316.3
8,237.0
5,335.6
10,971.3
12,187.9
7,316.3
15,553.3
20,888.9
31,860.2
44,048.1
57,263.8
54,153.1
58,262.8
57,189.1
61,566.9
70,548.7
81,123.1
88,776.4
102,113.5
116,741.6
48,823.4
38,854.2
35,201.0
22,833.7
18,816.7
18,816.7
18,816.7
18,816.7
18,816.7
18,816.7
7,593.5
7,691.5
7,313.0
6,536.6
6,119.9
5,226.6
4,667.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
56,416.9
46,545.7
42,514.0
29,370.4
24,936.6
24,043.3
23,484.1
18,816.7
18,816.7
18,816.7
(830.1)
(415.1)
(207.5)
(103.8)
(51.9)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
185.6
388.1
590.6
793.1
995.6
1,198.1
2,438.4
2,438.4
2,438.4
2,500.0
2,500.0
2,500.0
2,500.0
2,500.0
2,500.0
2,500.0
1,857.6
1,857.6
1,857.6
2,000.0
2,000.0
2,000.0
2,000.0
2,000.0
2,000.0
2,000.0
1,982.4
1,982.4
1,982.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Shareholder's Equity
1,404.2
5,543.5
10,965.2
23,763.6
32,774.8
42,032.4
52,755.9
64,770.4
77,853.0
92,252.7
(6,835.7)
(4,214.4)
(1,494.8)
(444.9)
(25.9)
846.9
7,607.5
15,748.8
27,818.8
36,630.3
46,505.4
57,639.0
69,959.7
83,296.8
97,924.9
57,263.8
54,153.1
58,262.8
57,189.1
61,566.9
70,548.7
81,123.1
88,776.4
102,113.5
116,741.6
DIT - Appendix
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
30-Sep-06
30-Sep-07
30-Sep-08
30-Sep-09
30-Sep-10
30-Sep-11
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-13
30-Sep-14
30-Sep-15
Sales (Net)
839,539.8
853,566.5
860,451.1
907,953.0
1,010,538.0
1,062,439.7
1,108,074.2
1,153,120.2
1,198,752.0
1,245,707.2
COGS
779,189.4
789,317.8
795,774.8
839,813.2
938,830.2
987,006.4
1,028,846.9
1,070,095.5
1,112,441.8
1,156,016.2
Gross Profit
60,350.4
64,248.7
64,676.3
68,139.8
71,707.8
75,433.2
79,227.3
83,024.7
86,310.1
89,690.9
7.19%
7.53%
7.52%
7.50%
7.10%
7.10%
7.15%
7.20%
7.20%
7.20%
51,721.5
50,963.6
51,631.3
51,539.8
54,445.2
56,309.3
57,730.7
59,385.7
61,136.4
62,285.4
27,405.6
% margin
SG&A
+/- Non-Recurring Items
Adj. EBITDA
8,628.9
13,285.1
13,045.0
16,600.0
17,262.6
19,123.9
21,496.6
23,639.0
25,173.8
% margin
1.03%
1.56%
1.52%
1.83%
1.71%
1.80%
1.94%
2.05%
2.10%
2.20%
1,936.9
1,831.6
1,386.2
1,216.1
1,736.8
1,624.2
1,673.9
1,761.0
1,848.3
1,937.9
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
6,692.0
11,453.4
11,658.8
15,383.9
15,525.8
17,297.2
19,620.3
21,675.5
23,123.0
25,265.2
2.03%
0.80%
1.34%
1.35%
1.69%
1.54%
1.63%
1.77%
1.88%
1.93%
Interest Expense
4,858.0
4,816.3
2,986.2
1,627.4
1,504.9
1,054.5
993.1
948.6
658.6
658.6
Pre-Tax Income
1,834.0
6,637.1
8,672.5
13,756.6
14,020.9
16,242.7
18,627.1
20,726.9
22,464.4
24,606.6
% margin
0.22%
0.78%
1.01%
1.52%
1.39%
1.53%
1.68%
1.80%
1.87%
1.98%
38.2%
35.7%
36.7%
38.0%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
700.9
2,366.8
3,182.8
5,233.0
5,400.8
6,256.7
7,175.2
7,984.0
8,653.3
9,478.5
1,133.0
4,270.3
5,489.7
8,523.6
8,620.0
9,986.0
11,452.0
12,742.9
13,811.1
15,128.1
0.13%
0.50%
0.64%
0.94%
0.85%
0.94%
1.03%
1.11%
1.15%
1.21%
366.0
418.7
419.8
568.7
297.0
297.0
297.0
297.0
297.0
297.0
767.0
3,851.6
5,069.9
7,954.9
8,323.0
9,689.0
11,154.9
12,445.9
13,514.1
14,831.1
% margin
0.09%
0.45%
0.59%
0.88%
0.82%
0.91%
1.01%
1.08%
1.13%
1.19%
0.0
0.0
91.0
228.2
416.8
431.4
431.4
431.4
431.4
431.4
0.00%
0.00%
1.79%
2.87%
5.01%
4.45%
3.87%
3.47%
3.19%
2.91%
Retained Earnings
767.0
3,851.6
4,978.9
7,726.7
7,906.2
9,257.6
10,723.5
12,014.4
13,082.7
14,399.7
$1.46
$7.31
$9.45
$14.50
$14.75
$16.17
$18.62
$20.77
$22.55
$24.75
$1.60
$4.96
$6.45
$10.91
$11.53
$13.09
$15.01
$16.71
$18.11
$19.83
$0.00
$0.00
$0.16
$0.40
$0.72
$0.72
$0.72
$0.72
$0.72
$0.72
527.1
527.1
536.3
548.6
564.4
599.2
599.2
599.2
599.2
599.2
708.9
860.1
851.3
781.3
747.9
762.8
762.8
762.8
762.8
762.8
0.0
0.0
570.4
573.2
577.4
599.2
599.2
599.2
599.2
599.2
Income Taxes
Adj. Net Income (Loss)
% margin
Preferred Dividends Paid
Cash Earnings
Adj. EBITDA
Less: Maintenance CapEx
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
30-Sep-06
30-Sep-07
30-Sep-08
30-Sep-09
30-Sep-10
30-Sep-11
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-13
30-Sep-14
30-Sep-15
8,628.9
13,285.1
13,045.0
16,600.0
17,262.6
19,123.9
21,496.6
23,639.0
25,173.8
27,405.6
(920.7)
(346.0)
(762.5)
(1,103.4)
(812.6)
(1,389.7)
(1,780.1)
(1,871.8)
(1,963.6)
(2,057.8)
7,708.2
12,939.1
12,282.4
15,496.6
16,450.0
17,734.2
19,716.5
21,767.2
23,210.1
0.92%
1.52%
1.43%
1.71%
1.63%
1.67%
1.78%
1.89%
1.94%
DIT - Appendix
25,347.8
2.03%
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
FYE
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
Projected
30-Sep-06
30-Sep-07
30-Sep-08
30-Sep-09
30-Sep-10
30-Sep-11
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-13
30-Sep-14
30-Sep-15
1,133.0
4,270.3
5,489.7
8,523.6
8,620.0
9,986.0
11,452.0
12,742.9
13,811.1
15,128.1
Plus: Depreciation
1,936.9
1,831.6
1,386.2
1,216.1
1,736.8
1,624.2
1,673.9
1,761.0
1,848.3
1,937.9
Plus: Amortization
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
202.5
3,069.9
6,101.9
6,875.9
9,739.7
10,356.9
11,812.7
13,328.3
14,706.3
15,861.9
17,268.5
(920.7)
(346.0)
(762.5)
(1,103.4)
(812.6)
(1,389.7)
(1,780.1)
(1,871.8)
(1,963.6)
(2,057.8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,149.3
5,756.0
6,113.4
8,636.2
9,544.2
10,423.0
11,548.2
12,834.6
13,898.3
15,210.7
0.26%
0.67%
0.71%
0.95%
0.94%
0.98%
1.04%
1.11%
1.16%
1.22%
(59.9)
(168.3)
(82.6)
(570.0)
(1,231.0)
(596.9)
(529.4)
(527.0)
(538.5)
(558.8)
0.0
581.1
(4,420.5)
9,859.1
(2,403.2)
(1,041.0)
(1,669.8)
(1,648.4)
(1,680.0)
(1,728.7)
(15.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(3,099.8)
0.0
154.3
(30.1)
96.9
544.8
(262.1)
(31.9)
(31.5)
(31.9)
(32.9)
7,504.5
997.8
30.9
(8,533.2)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9,578.9
7,320.9
1,611.1
9,489.0
3,355.0
8,523.0
9,317.1
10,627.6
11,647.8
12,890.4
0.0
(9,969.3)
(3,653.2)
(12,367.3)
(4,017.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
98.0
(378.5)
(776.4)
(416.8)
(893.3)
(559.2)
(4,667.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(1,778.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(366.0)
(418.7)
(419.8)
(568.7)
(297.0)
(297.0)
(297.0)
(297.0)
(297.0)
(297.0)
9,212.8
(2,969.1)
(2,840.4)
(6,001.7)
(1,375.8)
7,332.6
8,460.9
5,663.2
11,350.8
12,593.4
(6,835.7)
2,621.3
2,719.7
1,049.9
(385.3)
415.1
207.5
103.8
51.9
25.9
0.0
0.0
(91.0)
(228.2)
(416.8)
(431.4)
(431.4)
(431.4)
(431.4)
(431.4)
2,377.2
(347.8)
(211.7)
(5,180.0)
(2,177.8)
7,316.3
8,237.0
5,335.6
10,971.3
12,187.9
0.0
2,377.2
2,029.3
1,817.6
(3,362.4)
(5,540.2)
1,776.1
10,013.1
15,348.7
26,320.0
2,377.2
$4.08
$3.03
2,029.3
$10.92
$6.69
1,817.6
$11.40
$7.18
(3,362.4)
$15.74
$11.05
(5,540.2)
$16.91
$12.76
1,776.1
$17.40
$13.66
10,013.1
$19.27
$15.14
15,348.7
$21.42
$16.83
26,320.0
$23.20
$18.22
38,507.9
$25.39
$19.94
DIT - Appendix
FYE
30-Sep-10
15,525.8
38.5%
(5,980.5)
9,545.3
1,736.8
0.0
(812.6)
(1,231.0)
(2,403.2)
Enterprise DCF
EBIT
Marginal Tax Rate
Less: Income Taxes
NOPAT
Add back: Depreciation
Add back: Amortization
Less: Maintenance CapEx
Less: Growth CapEx
Decrease (Increase) in NWC
Enterprise Free Cash Flow
% growth
Period
Discounted Cash Flow
12.0%
5.0x
137,027.8
46,442.6
77,753.2
(23,038.9)
101,157.0
762.8
Projected
30-Sep-11
17,297.2
38.5%
(6,662.9)
10,634.3
1,624.2
202.5
(1,389.7)
(596.9)
(1,041.0)
Projected
30-Sep-12
19,620.3
38.5%
(7,557.7)
12,062.5
1,673.9
202.5
(1,780.1)
(529.4)
(1,669.8)
Projected
30-Sep-13
21,675.5
38.5%
(8,349.4)
13,326.1
1,761.0
202.5
(1,871.8)
(527.0)
(1,648.4)
Projected
30-Sep-14
23,123.0
38.5%
(8,907.0)
14,216.0
1,848.3
202.5
(1,963.6)
(538.5)
(1,680.0)
Projected
30-Sep-15
25,265.2
38.5%
(9,732.1)
15,533.0
1,937.9
202.5
(2,057.8)
(558.8)
(1,728.7)
6,835.2
9,433.4
38.0%
9,959.7
5.6%
11,242.4
12.9%
12,084.7
7.5%
13,328.2
10.3%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6,835.2
8,422.7
7,939.8
8,002.1
7,680.0
7,562.8
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
132.61
4.0x
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
$117.36
$114.76
$112.23
$109.76
$107.34
0.02
Discount
Rate
(WACC)
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
$149.35
$146.04
$142.81
$139.66
$136.59
$160.01
$156.46
$153.00
$149.63
$146.34
6.0x
-1.0%
-0.6%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.8%
$128.03
$125.19
$122.42
$119.72
$117.09
0.2%
0.6%
1.1%
1.5%
2.0%
$138.69
$135.61
$132.62
$129.69
$126.84
6.0x
1.2%
1.6%
2.1%
2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.9%
3.4%
3.8%
2.7%
3.1%
3.6%
4.1%
4.5%
$132.61
DIT - Appendix
FYE
30-Sep-10
21.57
5.0x
$107.83
(32.69)
Projected
30-Sep-11
23.25
5.0x
$116.24
(31.52)
Projected
30-Sep-12
25.85
5.0x
$129.24
(30.79)
Projected
30-Sep-13
28.54
5.0x
$142.68
(24.67)
Projected
30-Sep-14
30.43
5.0x
$152.14
(24.67)
Projected
30-Sep-15
33.23
5.0x
$166.15
(24.67)
CAGR
('10-'15)
9.0%
13.5%
$75.14
$0.00
$84.72
$9.59
$98.45
$20.39
$118.01
$27.38
$127.47
$41.77
$141.48
$57.75
(10.00%)
(10.00%)
(10.00%)
(10.00%)
(10.00%)
(10.00%)
$0.00
$8.63
$18.35
$24.65
$37.59
$51.97
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
$0.57
$93.36
$0.57
$0.57
$116.80
$0.57
$0.57
$142.66
$143.22
$0.57
$165.06
$0.00
$0.57
$193.45
$0.00
23%
Holding
Period
(Years)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Investor IRR
EBITDA-MCX Exit Multiple
4.0x
4.5x
5.0x
5.5x
(8.22%)
9.39%
14.66%
15.60%
16.34%
6.88%
16.83%
19.21%
18.69%
18.63%
21.98%
23.83%
23.43%
21.57%
20.76%
37.08%
30.45%
27.38%
24.25%
22.74%
52.17%
36.75%
31.09%
26.77%
24.60%
($77.05)
($77.05)
3.0
23.4%
22.63
4.76x
12.51
25.07
4.64x
13.66
28.18
4.59x
15.14
30.99
4.60x
16.83
33.00
4.61x
18.22
35.93
4.62x
19.94
16.7%
16.1%
15.4%
14.3%
14.3%
14.1%
11.30
6.65x
762.8
13.09
6.47x
15.01
6.56x
16.71
7.06x
18.11
7.04x
19.83
7.13x
DIT - Appendix
6.0x
9.7%
9.8%
11.9%