PROBABILITY IN HYDROLOGY

Conditional

Probability Frequent Events

Armando S. Matuguinas Jr.

Conditional Probability
The Probability of an A, given the knowledge that another event B has occurred. Defined as the ratio of the probability of the intersection (A B) to the probability of event B. P(A/B) = P(A B) P(B)

If P(B) is Zero, The answer is undefined.

If A and B are two mutually inclusive events in S so that (A U B) is not empty, then the probability of A or B is given by: P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

If and are mutually exclusive events, then both cannot occur and P (A B) = 0 In this case, P(A U B) = P(A)+P(B) Venn Diagram
Ac

If the two events A and B are independent: P(A B) = P(A) P(B) Occasionally, we must deal with more than two events. If A, B and C are three non-mutually exclusive events, then P(ABC) = P(A) P(B/A) P(C/AB)

EXAMPLE: A study of daily rainfall at Ashland, Kentucky, has

shown that in July the probability of a rainy day is 0.45, a dry day following a dry day 0.75, a rainy day following a dry day is 0.275 and a dry day following a rainy day is 0.555. If it is observed that a certain July day is rainy, what is the probability that: 1. The next two days will also be rainy days? 2. The next two days will be dry days?

Solution: 1. Following some initial rainy day, let A be the rainy day 1 and B the rainy day 2 and P(B) = 0.45. P(A/B) = P(A B) P(B) P(A B) = P(B) P(A/B)

P(A/B) is also 0.45 since this is the probability of rainy day following a rainy day. P(A B) = 0.45 x 0.45 P(A B) = 0.2025 2. Following some initial rainy day, let A be the dry day 1 and B the dry day 2 and P(B) = 0.555. Since this is a dry day following a rainy day. P(A B) = P(B) P(A/B)

But P(A/B) now is 0.75 since this is the probability of a dry day following a dry day. Therefore P(A B) = 0.555 x 0.75 P(A B) = 0.41625

Frequent Events
When the designed problems requires consideration of events with return periods. Problems Occurring: Flood Drought Rainfall Typhoon

Extreme Events
Low

probability of failure requires the probability of failure in one year to be very very low The design event has most likely not occurred in the historic record Nuclear power plant on bank of river
Designed

for flood with 100,000 year return period, but have observations for 100 years

Quantifying Extreme Events

Use

stream flow records to describe distribution including skewness and then extrapolate
Adjust

gage station flows to project site based on watershed area Use similar adjacent watersheds if stream flow data is unavailable for the project stream
Use

rainfall data and apply a model to estimate stream flow

Use

local rain gage data Use global maximum precipitation Estimate probable maximum precipitation for the site

The End