KY 85C

96 98B
98B 98B
NTU EMBA
2011.06.01.
A presentation in Prof. s

Outline

Appendix

30

1998


50

85C

2004.7.29

 (2010)
Gourmet Master
(85C)
:
: 12.8

100% Owned

100% Owned

65% Owned

51% Owned

:41+:284

:169

: 1

: 4

:1939

: 8167

: 87

: 83

:3

: 4

: 1

: 1

85 Caf

Infinity Emerging Markets Limit, 26.71%

Circle Garden International Limited < 5%

5-Star Industrial Limited

Henderson I Yield Growth Limited, 9.95%

HSBC HAV(3) Limited < 5%

The HSBC Asian Ventures Fund 3

Crown Investment Company Limited < 5% limited

5-Star Industrial Limited

Henderson Growth Fund

The HSBC Asian Ventures Fund 3 Limited

24.18%
GPLP85 Caf
2010/09

 (2011/5/9)


300

250

2007

200

2008
2009

150

2010

100

2011(F)

50

9,000,000

8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

()

2,000,000

5,000,000

100%

4,500,000

90%

4,000,000

80%

3,500,000

70%

3,000,000

60%

2,500,000

50%

2,000,000

40%

1,500,000

30%

1,000,000

20%

500,000

10%

1,000,000
2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: company data

0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

10

2,500,000

2010 ,

2,000,000

1,500,000
2009
2010(F)

1,000,000

500,000

11

2011

NT 800/
NT 6000-7000/

2011: 100
4 : , , ,

20 35

new

new
1

30 64

30 54
9 11

new

new

6 12
12

 &

Strategy Activity System ()

Competitive Strategy
Cost
Differentiation

,
,
)

24

()

14

85C

Starbucks, ,
,

, , ,
, ,

, ,
, ,
,

, 7-11, ,

, ,

, ,

15

Strategy Activity System()

ERP/
POS

,
,
)

()

24

()

16

85C

(BreadTalk)

(40%)+(60%), +,
, , , ,
, ;

, (),
, 24

+, +,
,

, (),
, , 24

Source: company data

17

Business Model
INFRASTRUCTURE
KEY
PARTNERS

KEY
ACTIVITIES
OFFER
-
-/
-
-

KEY
RESOURCES
-
- (,
, )
- :
-

CUSTOMER
RELATIONSHIP

COST
STRUCTURE

VALUE
PROPOSITION
-
-
-
-

24

CUSTOMER
CUSTOMER
SEGMENT

, ,

DISTRIBUTION
CHANNEL

FINANCE

REVENUE
STREAMS

, ,

18

Value Proposition
:

85 C Value Proposition

Starbucks,

(BreadTalk)

19

Revenue/Profit Drivers (1)

:
:
:

()

2,500
/
2010 *1
40
*2
%
*3
%
/ %

5,000,000

100%

4,500,000

90%

4,000,000

80%

3,500,000

70%

3,000,000

60%

2,500,000

50%

2,000,000

40%

1,500,000

30%

1,000,000

20%

500,000

10%

0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

1,400
283

3,000
131

6,900
5

1,200,000 2,207,400 4,690,441 417,666

14%
26%
55%
5%
120,000
10%
0.26%

309,036
27%
0.10%

684,804
60%
0.46%

29,165
3%
0.51%

*1 (2009+2010)/2
*2 46% (65/140)
*3

Source: company data

20

Revenue/Profit Drivers (2)

50%

45%

,
, /

,
,
?

2007

35%

2008

30%
25%

2009

20%

2010Q1

15%
10%
5%
0%

2007

70%

2008

58.01%

60%
50%

40%

49.48%

49.40%

2009

40%

35.61%

2,500,000

1,500,000

1,200,000

200,000

10%

1,400,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

20%

1,600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

30%

0%

2010Q1 2,000,000

2007

2008

2009

2010(F)

2007

2008

2009

2010(F)

Source: company data

21

Cost Structure (1)

2008 60% 2010 47%

, , ,
ERP/POS, , ,

2008 26% 2010 40%

, , ,
220180

,
60%
50.5%

50%

40%

37.8%

52.8%

40.3%

39.8%
33.9%

()

30%
26.1%
20%

20.4%
17.4%

14.2%

16.6%

10%

13.1%

0%
2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: company data

22

Cost Structure (2)

(COGS) 75-80%,
2010
+60%; +85%; +12%;

(+

23

Customer Segment

(: 85C
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/99706340a8956bec0975e389.html
)

24

Key Activities (1)

(2009)85C

85C
85C

Source: 422
25

Key Activities (2)

, (3-4)
, (, )
: 3 , 1
320 (2011 211)

(, )

: 1

(, )

: 1, 1

: 1

26

Key Resources


85C
422
(, , )
ERP/POS

422

27

Key Partners

()

28


100
?
?
? , ?
?

29


Financial Strategy

(200920107.923.8)
31

32

(FY2001)

33

 (FY2001-2013)

34

1002016
1,000
NT 800/
20113-4 (
)
NT 6,000-7,000/
2011 14(4/22)
2011201334

35

36

37

2011-2103
2010401,400

201011IPO23
8,200
2011-201334
2011-201354
4,700()
3420
4,700
50%
167,0003
7,700
38

39

Net cash position and negative cash

conversion cycle
collect cash directly from customers in
Taiwan and China
Although 87% of its stores in Taiwan are
franchises (therefore having accounts
receivables), overall store percentage
weighting will decrease over the years as
Gourmet is not currently considering the
franchise business model in China.
40

Source:,

41


20112013
1%
43005%

2011201310%

1%6,700

42


FY2009 FY2010 FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
ROE

Earning / Ave.
Equity

59%

24%

20%

22%

24%

Earning / Sales

12%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Sales / Ave.
Asset

2.77

1.75

1.56

1.72

1.84

Ave. Asset /
Ave. Equity

1.80

1.37

1.27

1.27

1.27

Source: ,
43

CB

44


40%

7%
3-6%

40-50%

46

Source:

47


cpi(5%),

Starbucks/BreadTalk,

, 2013
,

48

Source: SouFun

49

50


KY

20111003-4

200080
10

2011, 9, 1009%.
, , ,

,
. ,
, ,

51

1000

BreadTalk2012

KY

52

 BreadTalk
1. 2003, (37), 2010170,
2013500, 85C
==>
2. , , (
)
==>85C
3. , ASP
==>
4. (//),
50%, 45%,
(201010356(
170)31(20)20(8))
==>85C

53

Appendix

 - Appendix

BreadTalk (2010)
395 bakery outlets, 21 restaurants and 32 food atria(In 2010, the

Group opened 94 new outlets, of which 38 are owned and 56 are

franchised)
Bakery: PRC 184 | Indonesia 68 | Singapore 67
| Philippines 17 | Malaysia 14 |Hong Kong 13 | India 6 | Kuwait 6 |
Thailand 8 | Korea 6 | Bahrain 3 |Oman 1 | Vietnam 2
Food Atrium PRC 20 | Singapore 6 | Hong Kong 5 | Malaysia 1
Restaurant Singapore 14 | PRC 7
BreadTalk,
, . Bakery45.2%,
China 32.3%. Revenue = NT 70, , Bakery
NT 32, Bakery 70%,
60%, NT 19, 85C. 85C
, . Bakery Operation margin
5.7%.
56

BreadTalk (2010)

57

BreadTalk
S $
2010

2009

2010

2009

Revenue

302,888 246,493 100.0% 100.0%

Cost of sales

137,646 112,334

45.4%

45.6%

Gross profit

165,242 134,159

54.6%

54.4%

9,760

4.7%

4.0%

120,994 93,468

39.9%

37.9%

Administrative expenses

41,872 34,198

13.8%

13.9%

Profit from operations

16,564 16,253

5.5%

6.6%

503

0.0%

0.2%

16,530 15,750

5.5%

6.4%

Other operating income

Distribution and selling expenses

Financial expenses, net

Profit before taxation and share of results
of associates and joint ventures

14,188

34

58

BreadTalk GM

59


(2010/08)

860
1000
131.9
1
20
941.57.05

60

 - Appendix

62

98

HSBC

CIRCLE GARDEN
International LIMITED
HENDERSON I YIELD
GROWTH LIMITED
INFINITY EMERGING
MARKETS LIMITED
41.61%

63

ERP

64

Key Successful Factors

Taiwan:
Location

SOP

ERP

China:

Key Resources

(20~80/1)

65

66

67

68

Valuation - Appendix

Valuation - UBS
2 March 2011

70

UBS
2 March 2011

12m price target NT$330.00/US$11.09

71

 (2011/04/27, NT 250)

(2011/04/25, NT 270)

72

6/1


85C6

2
85C200 (31)
KY
85C
61

45
74

!
85C ?
2011-05-26

KY(2723;85C)22
85C85C

65

2011-05-30

85C6
5
? ? 5/31
! Why?
75

BreadTalk

BreadTalk (2010)

77

BreadTalk (2010)

78

 Bakery

45.2%, China
32.3%. Revenue = NT
70, ,
Bakery NT 32

Bakery
70%,
60%, NT 19
, 85C
. 85
C,
.
Bakery Operation
margin 5.7%.

79

BreadTalk
S $
2010

2009

2010

2009

Revenue

302,888 246,493 100.0% 100.0%

Cost of sales

137,646 112,334

45.4%

45.6%

Gross profit

165,242 134,159

54.6%

54.4%

9,760

4.7%

4.0%

120,994 93,468

39.9%

37.9%

Administrative expenses

41,872 34,198

13.8%

13.9%

Profit from operations

16,564 16,253

5.5%

6.6%

503

0.0%

0.2%

16,530 15,750

5.5%

6.4%

Other operating income

Distribution and selling expenses

Financial expenses, net

Profit before taxation and share of results
of associates and joint ventures

14,188

34

80

BreadTalk GM

81

Valuation

2011-2020
2011-202080
NT 1000/

20113-4 (
)
80
NT 6,000-7,000/

2011 14(4/22)

2012201510
(80 + 1-2)
201620209
(80 + 1)
83

Sales/Profit/Cash Flow Forecast

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F

1,369

6,283

8,347

11,104 13,888 16,672 19,456 22,240 25,024 27,808 30,592 33,376 36,160

651

3,173

4,411

5,885

7,361

8,669

10,117 11,565 12,762 14,182 15,602 17,022 18,442

510

2,130

3,320

4,331

5,555

6,669

7,782

8,896

10,510 11,679 12,849 14,018 15,187

()

57

741

827

1,182

1,372

1,523

1,777

2,032

1,719

1,907

2,095

2,283

2,471

3,242
2,998
2,753

2,671
2,340

1,177
593

1,340

1,192

1,070

2,098
1,853

1,671

1,570

2,342

2,265

2,070
1,786

2,509

1,609
1,365

786
552

170
143
-75
-218
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F FY2015F FY2016F FY2017F FY2018F FY2019F FY2020F
-584
-640
-900
-900
-900
-900
-900
-1,000
-1,000
-1,000
-1,000
-1,400

84

DCF Valuation

Ke Cost of Equityg2 t>n FCFE

85

Equity Value & Sensitivity Analysis

Present Value (
)

650
600
550

2010 Cash

4,013

500

2011~2020

8,460

450

21,010

400

2021 Terminal

()

33,483
12,800

(2010/12/31)
(NT)

7.0%
7.5%
8.0%

350

value

cost of equity
Ke

Share price

300

8.5%

250
200

9.0%

150
261.6

9.5%

100
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5%

g2

10.0%

Ke=8.5% g2= 0%~5%, P = 193~340,

g2=3.5%, Ke= 7%~10%, P = 205~379
86