Best Practice for use of mesoscale models in wind resource assessments

21 April 2010

EWEC 2010 Warsaw

Jan Coelingh & Anthony Crockford

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Outline
Background
Wind atlas products Methods Validation in North Sea Conclusions

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Background
What is mesoscale modeling?
Mathematical models of the atmosphere that predict the weather, using observed data from a variety of sources, such as weather satellites and surface weather observations Horizontal grid spacing in the model is typically between about 1 km and 20 km Many processes are approximated through parametrisation

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Mesocale-based wind atlas (Anemos)

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

How useful are mesoscale model results for wind resource assessments at sites without measurements?
Can a mesoscale wind atlas be used as a standalone product? How should a mesoscale wind atlas be used in conjunction with measured wind data? Validation exercise using two methods on two mesoscale model products

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Method A Direct application

Take a time series from mesoscale wind atlas at nearest grid point to the site
Describe terrain around grid point using the same basis as in the mesoscale modelling Calculate generalised local wind climate, using the WAsP wind atlas methodology

The result of this post-processing is a regional wind statistic containing wind speed parameters for standard heights and roughness classes

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Method B Correction factor applied to distant measurements

Calculate generalised local wind climate, based on measurements

Take a time series from mesoscale wind atlas at nearest grid point to the site, and nearest grid point to measurement site Calculate correction factor (mean wind speed near site / mean wind speed near measurement site) Apply correction factor to wind climate based on measurements

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise in North Sea

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise in North Sea

Five data sets from KNMI points in The Netherlands
Europlatform K13 Meetpost Noordwijk L.E. Goeree Vlakte van de Raan 29 74 28 38 17 m m m m m 45 km 105 km 10 km 17 km 15 km 30 km

One data set from MVB point in Belgium Dedicated met mast in The Netherlands Dedicated met platform in Germany
FINO Westhinder 25 m

OWEZ

70 m

15 km

Dedicated met mast in southern North Sea

CONFIDENTIAL 40 m 6 km

100 m 50 km

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise in North Sea

Normalised mean wind speed (m/s) at 80 m
120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80%
Measured (extrapolated to 80 m with WAsP)

K1 3

or m

re e

EZ

PN

er

Ra a

hi nd

oe

N O

la

vd

FI

ro p

LE

Vl ak t

Eu

C o

nf id

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en

tf

tia

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise: Method A

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise: Method A

Normalised mean wind speed (m/s) at 80 m
120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80%
Mesoscale wind atlas B Measured (extrapolated to 80 m with WAsP)

Mesoscale wind atlas A

Ra an

K1 3

rm

re e

EZ

PN

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at

es th

vd

FI

Eu ro pl

Vl ak t

C on f

LE

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en tia

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in d

N O

fo

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise: Method B

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Validation exercise: Method B

Normalised mean wind speed (m/s) at 80 m
120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80%
K1 3 n rm oe re e EZ 1 PN er Ra a at fo hi nd N O W M en tia l
Mesoscale wind atlas B Mesoscale wind atlas A Measured (extrapolated to 80 m with WAsP)

vd

FI

W es t

ro

LE

Vl

ak t

Eu

C o

nf id

pl

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Further validation exercises

We have also completed a number of validation exercises for onshore sites in:
France Poland UK

With careful use of Method A, wind farm energy yield is predicted to within 3-12%

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Conclusions (1)
Be aware of mesoscale model conditions: source data, boundaries, resolution, time scale
Select site-appropriate mesoscale models
e.g. higher resolution for coastal or complex sites

Validate mesoscale model results at several nearby sites

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Conclusions (2)
With proper post-processing, mesoscale wind atlases are suitable for preliminary WRAs
Combination of mesoscale wind atlas and micro-scale modeling allows for effective site assessments prior to measurements

Mesoscale model results can complement analysis based on distant measurements Recommendation: make estimate of uncertainty and clearly state it
The added-value of wind-speed gradients is especially evident offshore

Use of mesoscale model results in offshore wind resource assessments

Acknowledgements
Data Europlatform, Meetpost Noordwijk, L.E. Goeree, Vlakte van de Raan courtesy of KNMI
Data OWEZ courtesy of Noordzeewind

Data FINO 1 courtesy of German government

Mesoscale map courtesy of Anemos