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World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6.2% Year Through 2025
RTKs, billions 800 History Forecast
High Base Low
Average annual growth 2005-2025 High Base Low 7.1% 6.2% 5.4%
600
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
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Average Growth in %
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
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Air Cargo Market for non ramp aircraft Scheduled Services 1879 Aircraft ~98,5%$78,8 billion
DC-10, MD-11
Total volume in 2007 ~ $80 billion 190 billion tons / kilometer 41 mln tons
Air Cargo Market for ramp aircraft Charter Services 479 AC ~1,4% $1 billion
-76
-96
B-747
-204
311 AC 747F $30 billion per year (2007) ~ 38% market share
Market Growth Forecast (2020): - On Non ramp Aircraft 6%-6,2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA)
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$80 billion
$1 billion
Russian civil aviation 74 %
USA 31%
By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies: 1. Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers. Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%) .
2.
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2008
100 tons; 16; 11% 10tons; 91; 63%
2020
10 tons; 28; 21% 100 tons; 55; 39%
An-124 Il-76
30-100 tons; 15; 10%
An-124
Charter Services
Il-76
10-30 Tons; 28; 16% Medium 10-30 Tons; 12; 9% 30-100 tons; 41; 31%
747F B 747
100 tons; 12; 57%
30-100 tons; 1; 16% 10 tons; 8; 11%
747F
B 747
6; 29%
Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft) Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast
30-100 tons; 19; 25% Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92 aircraft)
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2004
Russia 1,3%
2007
Russia 1,4%
Total volume
$80 billion
Other Countries 92,0%
2015
Total volume
$105 billion
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Russia 8,0%
Market volume
$160 billion
2030
Russia 16,0% next
DC-10, MD-11
USA
Canada
USA
Canada
B-747, 777
Europe
Moscow
Khabarovsk Krasnoyarsk
Europe Moscow
St.Petersburg
Khabarovsk Krasnoyarsk
China
Singapore
Moscow natural geographical hub connecting Europe to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia
Krasnoyarsk natural geographical hub connecting USA, Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia
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YYC LAX
Moscow
Krasnoyarsk
AMS LHR FRA MIL LED MOW TLV KJA SHA NBO BJS DEL SIN UUS NGO
NRT
HKG
KUL
B 747-8F
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Total Aircraft 2
3
4 6 5 6 8 7 8-12
October 2005
June 2006 (NCA) March 2007 (NCA) September 2007 October 2007 (Boeing) February & April 2008 (Boeing) March 2008 2010-2013 (Boeing)
In Service
In Service In Service Retired in 2007 In Service In Service Retired in 2008 On Order
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10
Boeing 747-8F
Boeing 747 8F Boeing 747-400 ERF 2 x Boeing 747-200 1 x Boeing 747 -400 ERF
+5
+5
2020
+2
2010-13
Boeing 747-200
+3
2008
Boeing 747-200
Boeing 747-200
+1
2007
Boeing 747-200
-1
Boeing 747-200
+1
2006
-1
2005
2004
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11
Kazan Ufa
Chelyabinsk
Samara
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12
-204
A320F, A330F
MOSCOW (SVO)
YUZHNOSAKHALINSK (UUS)
KRASNOYARSK (KJA)
KHABAROVSK (KHV)
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13
While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204C has been selected as the middle range aircraft type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010
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