Current Issues in S&T Policies in Agriculture

N H Rao National Academy of Agricultural Research Management Hyderabad, AP, India http://www.naarm.ernet.in

Outline
Policy definition, context Agricultural S&T Policy drivers food security
markets: research to innovation livelihoods climate change: adaptation, mitigation vulnerability, adaptive capacity natural resources enhancement : soils, water, biodiversity, environment emerging trends in science and technology bio, info, nano knowledge as a factor of production energy intellectual property rights

Institutions for implementing policy

The difference policies make

per capita GDP ( $, at PPP)

8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: World Bank, 2011

India China

1980: Indias per capita GDP ($ 480) > China ($ 280) 2010: Indias per capita GDP ($ 3550) less than half that of China ($ 7660)

Policy
Statement of: Principles Rules Guidelines Intentions to guide stakeholders in decision making: priorities, objectives, strategies, instruments, and accountability

Policy =

Policy will always have a wider social, political, economic and environment context Public Policy: driven by a vision of societys future (Constitution of India) integrates information (scientific and other facts) with social values as choices are involved guided by the basic principles of effectiveness, transparency, equity, consistency, comprehensiveness

Preamble: Constitution of India

WE the people of India having resolved to constitute into a SOVEREIGN, SOCIALIST, SECULAR, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC and to secure for all its citizens: JUSTICE, social, economic and political LIBERTY of thought, expression, belief, faith, and worship EQUALITY of status and opportunity FRATERNITY assuring the dignity of the individual In our constituent assembly this twenty sixth day of November 1949 do hereby ADOPT, ENACT and GIVE TO OURSELVES THIS CONSTITUTION

Policy Hierarchy
International Policy National economic policy
Based on policies of UN, WTO, IPCC, etc

Based on National Goals for economic growth and development; implemented through FYP Based on perceptions of Role of agriculture in economic growth Key forces that will influence global & national agriculture in next 20-25 years National Vision about food security, regional development, employment/ livelihoods, natural resources, etc. Based on: National agricultural policy National S&T policy perceptions about current and emerging technologies institutions

National agricultural policy

National S&T Policy

Agricultural S&T policy

Institutional programmes and projects

Agricultural production systems - context

Source: USDA, 2011

Agri- outputs = f (policies, markets, technology/knowledge, stakeholder interests) Multifunctionality of outputs: commodities (food, feed, fibers, biofuels, medicinal products, ornamentals) non-commodities (environmental services, landscape amenities and cultural)

The National Agricultural Policy (2000)

Perceptions about the agricultural sector central to national economy (multiplier effect), food security and employment
vast untapped potential generally unfavourable prices and low value addition past pattern of development uneven challenged by globalization

Vision: Actualize the vast untapped potential of Indian agriculture by: strengthening rural infrastructure
promoting value addition to accelerate growth of agribusiness, employment securing a fair standard of living for farmers and agricultural workers discouraging migration to urban areas, and facing the challenges of globalization

Objectives :

Average Annual growth rate to 2020 > 4%

(2-3% in 2000s; 3.3% in 90s; 3.9% in 80s) efficient use of soil, water and biodiversity resources growth with equity (across regions and farmers) demand driven growth (domestic markets/exports) growth rate sustainable technologically, economically, environmentally

National S&T Policy

Perceptions about role of S&T and twin responsibilities of excellence and relevance - key role in: economic growth, development and national security
raising quality of life, particularly for the disadvantaged using natural resources sustainably and protecting the environment making India globally competitive

Vision : a new and resurgent India that continues to maintain its strong democratic and
spiritual traditions, that remains secure not only militarily but also socially and economically

Objectives : advance scientific temper and integrate S&T in all spheres of activity
ensure food, agricultural, nutritional, environmental, water, health and energy security of the people on a sustainable basis alleviation of poverty, enhancing livelihood security, removal of hunger and malnutrition, reduction of drudgery and regional imbalances, and generation of employment, foster scientific research in universities and other academic, scientific and engineering institutions accomplish national strategic and security-related objectives, by using the latest advances in science and technology

ICAR 2030: Vision, mission, strategy

Vision Ensure food and income security for all, through technological innovations and sustainable agriculture. Mission Harness power of science and education with a human touch for higher and sustainable agricultural production. Strategic Focus farmer first enhance natural resources transform NARS to NAIS create globally competitive human resources foster linkages : PPP, national, international address climate change concerns

Agricultural S&T Policy Drivers ..

food security markets: research to innovation and livelihoods security

climate change: risk, adaptation, mitigation

natural resources enhancement: soils, water, biodiversity, environment emerging trends in science and technology intellectual property rights energy information management: knowledge as a factor of production

Food security
Two levels: - National, Household

Food security is the ability of all people at all times to access enough food for an active and healthy life.

Hunger index
Source: IFPRI, 2008

S&T Issues - Food security

(Global)

Source USDA, 2011

Yield gaps

TFP of food crops in India declining..

Source: Ramesh Chand, 2011

Source Lobell et al, 2010

Food security: Inflation, global connections and food grain management

Global food prices

India food price inflation

Source:, RBI, STCI

Food security: role of agriculture in economy, growth, diversification, trade

Composition of GDP Composition of workforce

GDP/AGDP growth

Source: Gulati, 2010

Food security: S&T strategic focus

A combination of approaches is needed: sustainable agricultural production
cultivars adaptable to site-specific conditions improving access to resources improving soil, water and nutrient management and conservation pre and postharvest pest management increasing small-scale farm diversification particularly in rainfed areas

+
food stock management and distribution systems market intelligence early warning systems institutions to improve access of poor to food, land, water, seeds, germplasm and improved technologies

Markets: Changing the perspective of agricultural research

changing context of agricultural research : markets - not production increasingly drive agricultural development increasingly globalized setting uncertainty of production, consumption and trade declining rural incomes regulatory frameworks increasing access to global knowledge (developments in IT)
National and global policy consensus: agricultural research & technological improvements will continue to be prime drivers for raising rural incomes value addition in agriculture is largest untapped source of income rising share of private investments in research

Changing perspectives (contd..)

value addition links: producers (farmers) with consumers consumers: changing demand with rising incomes producers: need technology and management capacity to enable food to be engineered from farm to table research (invention/new product) with innovation (value) research can take place anywhere (Universities, public institutions) innovation generally takes place in firms (private sector) idea of innovation links research with consumers

Changing perspectives: increasing role of private sector (example from Biotechnology) Investment capacities of private and public sectors Company Crop protection Seed/ biotechnology Total (R&D as % of sales)
US $ million

Bayer
Syngenta Monsanto Pioneer BASF

730
500 40 215 340

110
310 490 312 93

840 (11%)
810 (11%) 530 (10%) 527 (11%) 433 (10%)

CGIAR
ICAR

428
~ 400
Adapted from : Spielman, 2007

Corporate world food system

Innovation perspective
innovation knowledge introduced and utilized in an economic or social process (Spielman, 2005) multidimensional engages economic, environmental, social and political dimensions of production and utilization of knowledge multiple agents: individuals, public and private institutions

turning research into innovation needs combining different types of knowledge, capabilities, skills and resources requires research be embedded in wider relationships through partnerships

Agricultural Innovation System

Transforming NARS to NAIS: knowledge generation and technology transfer based on interactive complex backward and forward linkages between agricultural production, agro-industry and consumers

research focus: production-consumption chain

focus on commodities and value addition

Fig Source: Haarwich et al, 2003

add and accumulate value from one link to next in the value chain
innovations at each link for improved competitiveness addresses complex forward and backward linkages along value chain through public-private partnerships (PPP)

Research focus: livelihood security

Fig Source: DFID

focus on forward and backward linkages among livelihood opportunities, resources and factors at macro and micro economic levels partnerships with NGOs, Govt Depts

Agricultural research

Markets and livelihoods- S&T strategic focus

Commodities enhance productivity and resource use efficiencies value addition through PPP with industry/agribusiness focus on quality and high value commodities/products (health foods, specialty foods, exports, etc) scaling through new models for aggregation integrate with global food systems new institutional frameworks PPP, IP management, scaling Livelihoods empowering/partnering farmers to innovatively manage local farming/ non farming systems and natural resources (soils, water, biological and other resources) to enhance system productivity and income institutional mechanisms to ensure access to land, resources, services, credit, legal frameworks and protection of IPR and common pool resource management

Climate change

Fig Source : IPCC, 2001

Climate change (IPCC Definition): change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer

Background: Green house effect and global warming

climate is driven by solar energy 30 % scatters back to space, 70% warms the earths surface; earth emits energy back as infrared/thermal radiation greenhouse gases: water vapour, CO2, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and other industrial gases (< 1%) greenhouse effect: greenhouse gases block infrared radiation to cause a rise in temperature (natural greenhouse effect) keep the planet about 300 C warmer than it would otherwise be (essential for life) anthropogenic forcing: rising levels of green house gases (except water vapour) from human activity industry, agriculture, land use change transportation, etc., leading to enhanced greenhouse effect global warming: climate system adjusts to rising greenhouse gases to keep the global energy budget in balance through rise in average temperature; uncertainties: global warming even by a small rise in temperature will be accompanied by many changes which are difficult to predict : cloud cover, wind patterns, ocean currents, etc., which may produce positive or negative feedbacks

The climate change process

Emissions
GHGs

Sources: transportation, energy, agriculture (methane, Nitrous oxide, CO2)

Concentrations
of GHGs in atmosphere

Warming
(climate forcing)

Climate change
(Temp, rain, sea-level)

Impacts

http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/

Scientific Understanding of climate change climate models

Stockholm Summit, 1972

IPCC, FAR, 1990 Rio Summit 1992 UNFCCC, 1994 Kyoto protocol WCED 1987 IPCC 1988

IPCC 1995, 2001,

2007

Climate, agricultural development and policy

Adapted from : IPCC, 2007

Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007

state-of-the-art climate models, reproduce almost perfectly the last 125 years of global/continental average observed temperatures.

Predicting climate change and impacts

Scenarios from population, energy, economics models

EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS CO2, methane, etc.

HEATING EFFECT Climate Forcing.

feedbacks

Carbon cycle, chemistry and hydrology models

Gas properties Coupled climate models Impacts models

CLIMATE CHANGE Temp, rain, sea-level, etc.

IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc.

Fig source: Srinivasan, IMD

Scenarios - IPCC
40 scenarios grouped in 4 families - A1, A2, B1, B2 - A1: rapid growth in globalized world, high energy use - A2: slow development, slow convergence; use of renewable energy - B1: similar to A1;more emphasis on energy conservation and environment (information, services) - B2: slow development, local solutions for sustainable development corresponding GHG emission levels for each scenario marker scenarios: for each family identified

Rise in CO2 conc. and temperature for different IPCC scenarios

2005 - 2009, actual emissions above those for marker scenarios except A1B, but within range of the scenario envelope reduction in emissions in 2009 because of global economic downturn by 2050, the global surface warming for the A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios is about the same (1C above the reference) temperature increases diverge significantly after 2050: A2 scenario results in highest increases by the end of the 21st century, about 3.5 C

Differential impacts : Development status

Warming impact on India - effect of temperature on farm value (source: Dinar, 2002)

Climate change and food prices

Even with no climate change, world prices for rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans will increase by 62%, 39%, 63%, and 72% respectively between 2000 and 2050, because of increasing population and income growth, and biofuels

Climate change results in additional price increases: 32 to 37% for rice, 52 to 55% for maize, 94 to 111% for wheat, and 11 to 14% percent for soybeans. Livestock are not directly affected, but effects of higher feed prices caused by climate change are passed on to livestock

Climate change impacts on food security

Calories Child malnutrition

prices

decline in calorie availability and per capita consumption of meat and cereals increase in prices affects household food security increase in child malnutrition
Nelson et al, 2009

Growth in emission transfers via international trade

CO2 emissions in developed countries (Kyoto Protocol, Annex B countries) have stabilized, but emissions in developing countries (non-Annex B) have doubled. Stabilization in developed countries was partially because of growing imports from developing countries. Soure: PNAS 2011

India Impacts on agriculture

Year 2040

2010
Change in grain yield, %

2020

2030

2050

2060

2070

Milk production

0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 -30.0 -35.0

Year 5
Minimum Maximum

Wheat

Basmati quality

Change in grain yield, %

0 2010 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Minimum Maximum 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Rice
Source: Aggarwal, 2002

Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture

productivity decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in water availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains). greater loss in rabi ; every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. increased climatic extremes- droughts and floods- lead to increased production variability increased fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; leading to higher emissions loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 in business as usual scenario increasing sea and river water temperatures affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests effects on microbes, pathogens, and insects imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. America quality of several commodities could change, e.g basmati rice, medicinal and aromatic plants
Source PK Aggarwal, 2008

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity

IPCC Definitions Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is the degree to which the system can modify its circumstances to move to a less vulnerable condition Multiscale and multidimensional phenomena Vulnerability is intrinsic to the system whereas adaptive capacity is dependent on both intrinsic and exogenous factors (technology, institutions, etc)

IPCC framework for climate change assessments

Provides basic framework for research planning and identification of competencies for capacity building

Adaptation options
Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water management New crops/varieties: drought/heat resistant diversification With Adaptation T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7% T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5% Poverty Hunger
(Kavikumar, 2002)

The adaptive capacity of small and marginal farmers is severely limited by dependence on natural factors, access to inputs, and institutional support systems

Mitigation strategies
Crop management: plant breeding, nutrient management, water management, rice management, land use change, agroforestry, Grazing land management Management of Soil organic matter Restoration of degraded lands Livestock management: feed management, dietary additives, animal breeding Waste management Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage, conservation tillage Water pricing

Climate change : S&T strategic focus

Understanding the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agricultural and rural livelihood systems, including feedbacks to the climate system Developing knowledge, tools and institutional models, to enable adaptation to climate change and to improve the resilience of natural and managed ecosystems Developing knowledge tools and institutional models to enhance land and agricultural management practices to mitigate atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and derive benefits from such reductions Developing knowledge systems that incorporate linkages between global scale changes in environment and economic conditions, and local scale dynamics of agriculture-environment-livelihoods interactions to provide science based decision support for management policies and strategies for sustainable agricultural development

Natural resources: S&T strategic focus

focus on multi functional outputs of agriculture productivity + externalities (degradation soil, water, air quality impacts/ loss of productivity) improving input use efficiencies (precision agriculture) systems approach for assessing and evaluating ecosystem services provided by agricultural systems integration across scales field to regional to global scales to connect local and global processes focus on soil health and water quality

integrating traditional knowledge

institutional frameworks for involving farmers, rural communities in NRM and engaging with civil society organizations

Integrating emerging technologies: nanotechnology into the agri-value chain

Integrating emerging technologies: nanotechnology for food security

Emerging technologies S&T strategic focus

integrating new sciences and technologies into agriculture to maintain flow of new technologies and stay globally competitive technologies are enabling in nature integrate into all sciences IP management to increase FTO to address fragmented ownership of IP

engage to promote acceptance by society proactive ex ante regulatory and health and environmental impact studies to design policies, tests and regulatory frameworks
institutional arrangements for multidisciplinary and multi-institutional engagement including with private sector

Knowledge as factor of production S&T strategic focus increasing importance of knowledge as a factor of production

knowledge interventions at all links in the agri-supply chain: - delivery of inputs - increasing productivities and efficiencies - lowering post harvest losses - processing farm outputs to higher value foods
systems for creating, processing and communicating knowledge knowledge networking

Summary
shift in focus from local to global markets shift in focus from research to innovation multidimensionality of research shift in focus from single to multifunctional outputs ecosystem services for well endowed areas: focus on commodity value chain for less favoured areas : focus on improving livelihoods security address climate change concerns: integration of scales, risk/ vulnerability assessment, mitigation and adaptation, benefits natural resources: conservation, maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services integrate new sciences keeping in view their enabling nature institutional frameworks and mechanisms (PPP, IP Management, multi disciplinary and multi-institutional engagement, social and market intelligence, build competencies disciplinary, interdisciplinary, behavioural, knowledge management, institutional

Thank You