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The aim of forecasting is to reduce the risk or uncertainty that the firm faces in its short-term operational decision making and in planning for its long term growth. Forecasting the demand and sales of the firms product usually begins with macroeconomic forecast of general level of economic activity for the economy as a whole or GNP. The firm uses the macro-forecasts of general economic activity as inputs for their micro-forecasts of the industrys and firms demand and sales. The firms demand and sales are usually forecasted on the basis of its historical market share and its planned marketing strategy (i.e., forecasting by product line and region). The firm uses long-term forecasts for the economy and the industry to forecast expenditure on plant and equipment to meet its long-term growth plan and strategy.
Forecasting is the process of estimating a variable, such as the sale of the firm at some future date. Forecasting is important to business firm, government, and non-profit organization as a method of reducing the risk and uncertainty inherent in most managerial decisions.
Forecasting Techniques
A wide variety of forecasting methods are available to management. These range from the most nave methods that require little effort to highly complex approaches that are very costly in terms of time and effort such as econometric systems of simultaneous equations. Mainly these techniques can break down into two parts:
qualitative approaches
Qualitative mtd
Expert opinion mtd Consumers survey mtd1) complete enumeration method 2)sample survey method 3) end use method
Consumer survey
Complete enumeration Covers all consumers like in data collection ( past,present,& all possible consumers) Sample survey Covers only few representative buyers Very useful in case of new brands & products
Consumer survey
End use method If the product has several end uses, it has specific demand for each use, its met sag Consumers in each met segmt convey their potential demand likely in future. Aggregate demand from all segments taken for forecasts
Quantitative methods
Time series Exponential smoothing Regression analysis Moving averages Index numbers Input-output analysis Econometric models
Seasonal
Random
Time series analysis-is based on obtaining the historical data regarding the demand for the product. Moving averages-is most useful when the market is assumed to remain steady overtime. Exponential smoothing- more weigtage is given to recent observations as they have more impact in future
Quantitative method
Index numbers- it offers a device to measure changes in a group of related variables over time period, usually taking base year 100. Regression analysis-used to measure the relationship between two variables where correlation exists. This method is based on statistical data.eg-annual repairs expenses of ACs can be predicted if we know age of ACs
Quantitative method
Econometric models- used to form an equation which seems best to express the most probable interrelation between a set of economic variables.eg- all factors influencing demand need to be determined. Input-output analysis- based on a set of tables explaining the various components of economy, helpful to understand inter-industry
Forecasting methods
Lifecycle stage method Development & introduction Delphi,survey Rapid growth Time series,regr Steady growth Econometric model
Trend Component
Persistent, overall upward or downward pattern Due to population, technology etc. Several years duration
Demand
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Time
Cyclical Component
Repeating up & down movements Due to interactions of factors influencing economy Usually 2-10 years duration
Demand
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Time
Seasonal Component
Regular pattern of up & down fluctuations Due to weather, customs etc. Occurs within 1 year
Demand
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Time
Random Component
Erratic, unsystematic, residual fluctuations Due to random variation or unforeseen events Union strike Tornado Short duration & non-repeating
Note: The WMA forecast is lower than the MA forecast because Day 13s relatively low call volume carries almost twice as much weight in the WMA (.60) as it does in the MA (.33).
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Demand 820 775 680 655 750 802 798 689 775
Determine exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2-10 using =.10 and =.60. Let F1=D1
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Demand 820 775 680 655 750 802 798 689 775
0.1 820.00 820.00 815.50 801.95 787.26 783.53 785.38 786.64 776.88 776.69
0.6 820.00 820.00 793.00 725.20 683.08 723.23 770.49 787.00 728.20 756.28
PS = Price of Muffins
PC = Price of Milk A = Advertising
N = Size of Population
e = Random Error