National Seminar on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation, 2012

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABLE COMMUNITY: A CASE OF COASTAL BANGLADESH

Authors: Saimum Kabir and Qazi Azizul Mowla

Introduction

It has been now widely accepted that community in the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ: 010m) will be largely affected by the anticipated sea level rise (SLR). However, the extent or degree of impact primarily depends on regional and local geo-morphology and socio-economic context. Being a densely populated low elevation coastal delta, Bangladesh stands to be the worst affected one. Of the 40 deltas globally, the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh is identified as an extreme vulnerable coastal delta where more than 20 million population is estimated to be displaced by anticipated sea level trends to 2100 (IPCC,2007) .

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Problem statement

Interior coast >> Severe drainage congestion / water logging

Exterior coast >> Storm

surge inundation, seasonal inundation due to rainfall, increased intensity of cyclone,

Both areas>> Increase in water and soil salinity

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Problem statement

Impact of SLR on human settlement:

Permanent inundation

Loss of habitable land and ecosystem in directly affected area The rehabilitation of the displaced population will exert additional pressure to the settlement in relatively safe area.

Mass displacement of population

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Vulnerability of coastal community

Historically the coastal community of Bangladesh is exposed to the risk of Bio-physical hazards like cyclones, storm surge, salinity and tidal flooding. This multi-hazard proneness in together with the limited capacity of communities and local authorities to respond to the existing hazards, weak preparedness, insufficient protection measures and lack of community based organizations makes the people more vulnerable to anticipated future risk.

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Vulnerability of coastal community

As predicated by IWM and CEGIS (2007),

1. Interior coast of southwest region may experience severe drainage congestion / waterlogging due to 62cm sea level rise ( SLR). About 32% more area will be deeply inundated due to overtopping of embankment.
2. Exposed coast of central and eastern region will experience increased intensity of cyclone and seasonal inundation due to increased rainfall in addition to 62 cm sea level rise. Beside this area will be severely exposed to storm surge inundation. About 16% more area in Patukahali and 18% of Chittagong district will be inundated seasonally due to sea level rise and high tide. 3. In both areas salinity problem will be increased from the existing situation.

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Storm surge inundation risk for predicated climate change context by the year 2050

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Vulnerability of coastal community

Chang (1968) viewed settlement as proxy of community. He defined settlement as the physical locale where the members of a community lived. . So it can be asserted that vulnerability of coastal community is largely determined by the vulnerability of coastal settlement. According to Pelling (2003) Vulnerability of settlement is measured on the scale of nature and severity of the event as well as the physical and socio economic factors that determine the degree of settlement resilience; how they are affected and capacity of settlement component or community to recover

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Objectives

The study aims to identify key vulnerability of coastal community in terms of risk exposure and resilience capacity of the settlement.

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Identification of key variables

1. Settlement pattern and density : - People who lived in scattered settlements near to the coast and in linear settlements along the coastal embankment are more susceptible to cyclonic sea surge. -The more dense the settlement , the more people is at risk. 2. Housing characteristics -Jupri and katcha house lack proper jointing and anchorage details to withstand high and sudden loading generated by cyclone induced tidal surges and thus is most vulnerable among all . 3. Access to community shelter - shelter can save life in extreme hazard situation. 4. Access to high land or pacca road -Good road communication can save life in two ways i) proving safe route from community to shelter earlier to hazard event ; ii) ensuring post disaster outside assistance and transportation of relief goods. 5. Access to emergency health facility -Health facilities are emergency Medicare provider and important post-event source of relief. 6. Access to primary education facility -Illiteracy constrains the ability of a person to understand early warning and access to recovery information. 07
Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Study Area: Dhulasar Union , Kalapara Upazila

CHAR GANGAMATI

BAY OF BENGAL

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Assessment of Vulnerability

Operational Definition : Vulnerability is a composite index of settlements exposure to geophysical risk and capacity of settlements physical components i.e. housing and infrastructure to cope with. In this study spatial vulnerability of Dhulasar union at community level is analyzed based on selective indicators following Analysis grid (250mx250m) method.

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Assessment of Vulnerability

Vulnerability of settlement

Exposure to Geoclimatic risk

Resilience capacity of settlement features

Housing

Infrastructure

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Assessment of Vulnerability
Indicators Wind Storm surge inundation Housing Infrastructure Proxy variables Wind speed * Depth of inundation Density of katcha house Proximity to nearest cyclone shelter Proximity to nearest pacca road / high land Proximity to nearest health care facility Proximity to nearest primary school

Exposure to Geophysical risk Resilience capacity of settlement pattern

* Exposure to wind risk is measured on the basis of cyclone risk zone as identified in the study of Multipurpose Cyclone Shelter Program ( MCSP) ( BUET & BIDS , 1993). According to MCSP study the Dhulasar union of Kalapara upazila falls in High Risk Area ( HRA) and thus the exposure to wind risk is considered same in all parts of the union.

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

METHOD

Analysis Grid

HIGH

LOW

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 01

Measuring Geo-physical risk

Storm surge inundation risk map of Kalapara Upazila. (MoFDM, 2009)

Storm surge inundation risk map of Dhulasar Union adopted from MoFDM, 2009

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 02

Measuring Resilience Capacity of Housing Structure

More Resilient

Less Resilient

Housing Capacity Index (HCi ) = Ratio Index (Ri) _katcha house / Ri max _katcha house

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 03

Measuring Infrastructural Capacity

Selected variables with weighting value Variables weight comments Contributing period disaster

Proximity to nearest 0.40 Cyclone shelter Proximity to nearest 0.30 high land / pacca road Proximity to nearest 0.20 Health facility Proximity to nearest 0.10 primary school Total 1.00

Most desired destination. Shelter can During act as safe house for the affected. safety

Provide safe evacuation route and During and post temporary shelter for refugee and disaster safety and livestock rehabilitation source of emergency medicare and Post relief recovery disaster

Raise awareness and provide Pre disaster information for early recovery preparedness

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 03

Measuring Infrastructural Capacity

Composite Infrastructural Capacity Index (CICi) = Wi * Access to service Index (ASi) / n

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 04

Composite Index of Settlement Capacity ( Housing + Infrastructure)

Housing index

Infrastructure index Composite Settlement Capacity Index (CSCi)= Housing Index (HCi )X 0.6 + Infrastructure Index (CICi )X 0.4

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 05

Comparison of results: Analyzing Geo-climatic Vulnerability of Settlement

Baraharpara

Baraharpara

Char Gangamati

Char Gangamati

Geo-physical risk exposure of Dhulasar Union

Resilience capacity of settlement of Dhulasar Union

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Step 05

Comparison of results: Analyzing Geo-climatic Vulnerability of Settlement

Degree of Geo-climatic vulnerability and pattern of settlement in Dhulasar Union.

Village/ locality

Settlements Settlements Exposure to Geo- resilience physical risk (-) capacity (+)

Settlement vulnerability

Settlement pattern Rn

Char Dhulasar Char Gangamti Kawar Char East Dhulasar West Dhulasar Ananta para Baultali Muslim para Nayakata Tarikata Char Chapli West Char Chapli Gangamti Barahpara Nutan para

Highest Highest High High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Lowest Lowest

Moderate Lowest Moderate Low Moderate Highest Lowest Lowest Moderate Low Highest High Moderate Lowest Low

High Highest High High Moderate Low High High Moderate Moderate Lowest Low Low Low Low

dispersed semi dispersed dispersed semi dispersed dispersed dispersed semi linear dispersed semi dispersed semi dispersed dispersed semi dispersed semi linear semi dispersed dispersed

1.04 0.56 1.00 0.79 1.00 1.34 0.49 1.49 0.95 0.95 1.13 0.97 0.42 0.67 1.13

0.00-0.09 absolute cluster/ nucleated, 0.10-0.22 semi nucleated, 0.23-0.39linear, 0.40- .49 semi linear, 0.50 .99 semi-dispersed, 1.00- 1.50 dispersed/ scattered

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Statistics of Highest and High vulnerable locality of Dhulasar union.

Most vulnerable Storm surge Household Locality Inundation depth density (per (m) sqkm) Min Max % of katcha house Nearest high land /pacca road (km) Nearest cyclone shelter (km) Nearest health care facility (km) Nearest educational facility (Primary school) (km)

Char Dhulasar

2.00*

6.00

120

89%

0.26 .01 0.50 .01 0.39 .01 0.16 .01

.78

0.81 0.1 2.0

4.84 4.0 6.7 2.53 1.8 3.4 2.19 .66 3.8 5.44 4.0 6.7

0.48 .09 .98 0.97 .12 1.8 0.71 .50 1.7 0.79 0.1 1.46

Char Gangamati Kawar Char

2.00

5.00

65

81%

0.97 1.13 .12 1.8 0.95 .09 2.7 1.76 .69 2.8

1.00**

6.00

57

95%

.86

East Dhulasar

2.00**

4.00

110

69%

.55

*Area along the Embankment remains partly inundated (0-1.0 m) ** Area along the Embankment remains inundation free

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Filed verification : Char Gangamati

Embankment

Gangamati Forest

B a y

o f

B e n g a l

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Filed verification : Char Gangamati

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Filed verification : Char Gangamati

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Filed verification : Char Gangamati

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

Filed verification : Char Gangamati

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Climate Change Vulnerable Community : A Case of Coastal Bangladesh

THANK YOU