Hubberts Peak Theory

Guided by Prof M. Neergat By Hrishikesh RC (08D17002)

Introduction
Fossil fuels formed over hundreds of millions of years Practically limited quantity of fossil fuels Increasing demand Production cannot keep rising all the time Peak Theory, formulated by MK Hubbert, geological scientist at Shell

The Peak Theory

Bell-shaped curve Verified by empirical data Equation not given

Crude oil production curve for the US Crude oil production curve for Ohio

Crude oil production curve for Illionis Crude oil production curve for the US (logarithmic)

Production curve for a single oil field

Production curve for multiple oil fields (4)

Production curve for multiple oil fields (8)

More the fields, smoother the curve Produces something like the bell-shaped curve Logically justifies Hubberts empirical assumption

Ultimate US crude oil production assuming ultimates of 150 and 200 Gb

Ultimate world crude oil production assuming ultimate of 1250 Gb

Equation for the Hubbert curve

Derivative of the Logistic curve = =
2 1+cosh 4

= 0 =

The original hubbert curve with an ultimate of 200 Gb compared with the actual data (US)

Laherrere's hubbert curve with the actual data (US)

Reserve growth Deregulation responsible Oil Crises (1973 and 1979) for 80s production increase Improved recovery practices Prorationing causes the 90s growth initial decline

Application of Hubberts theory

Three principles suggested by Laherrere for application of the Peak Theory
When there is a large population of fields in the country Absence of economic/political factors Avoidance of political boundaries when required

Production Discovery Link

Matching of shifted discovery and production curves (US)

Matching of shifted discovery and production curves (FSU)

Production Discovery Production Discovery link link valid with shift of valid with shift of 17 years 33 years

Former Soviet Union

Reserve misreporting Ultimate Reserve 170 Gb rather than 200 Gb Sharp drop due to Soviet political crisis
Former Soviet Union's production data modelled with hubbert curves having different ultimates

Laherreres analysis for the world

Hubberts prediction was wrong because of: Reserve growth 1973 oil crisis Multi-cycle modeling Considers unconventional oil Ultimate of 2750 Gb Peak predicted to be around 2008

Oil production and discovery curves for the world

Criticism of the peak theory

Ignores
political/economic factors reserve growth improved recovery practices unconventional oil

Definition of oil unclear Impossible to take into account misreporting at all levels

Present scenario
Peak Theory has highlighted the right issue Huge Debate over future oil Peak is likely, though there are two versions of what happens afterwards
Followed by a decline Followed by a plateau

References
M.K. Hubbert, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 78-9, 1956 Hirsch, R.L., 2005. The inevitable peaking of world oil production. The Atlantic Council of the United States. Laherrere, J.H.,2000. Hubberts curve : its strengths and weaknesses. Version proposed to Oil and Gas Journal on Feb 18, 2000 http://watd.wuthering-heights.co.uk/mainpages/hubbert.html. Graph showing how number of oil well approximate the hubbert curve. Retrieved on April 12, 2012 https://www.tsl.state.tx.us/exhibits/railroad/glossary.html Texas State Library and Archives Commission. Definition for prorationing. Retrieved on April 12, 2012 G. Maggio, G. Cacciola, 2009. A variant of Hubbert curve for oil production forecasts Peter Jackson, 2006. Why the Peak Oil Theory falls down. myths, legends and future of Oil Resources. Retrievable from http://www.liv.ac.uk/~jan/teaching/References/Jackson%202006.pdf J Murray, David King 26 January, 2012. Oils tipping point has passed. Published in Vol 481, Nature.