Ganges Basin Development Challenge

G4: Assessment of the Impact of Anticipated External Drivers of Change on Water Resources of Coastal Zone

Methodology
G4: Assessment of the impact of anticipated external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone

Defining Study Area

Literature Review

Field Survey and Data Collection

Water Flow and Salinity Modelling Model Development Calibration Validation

Outputs
Selection of Drivers of Change Involving Gs and other Stakeholders
Detailed map of polders

Simulation of 10-Day maximum and minimum water level, Baseline Condition

water flow and salinity at D/S of sluices and along peripheral rivers of the polders

Selection of Scenarios Involving Gs and Stakeholders

Simulation map Salinity zoning of Scenarios

Freshwater availability map

Water-logging map inside the polders

Improved water infrastructure plan of the three polders

Improved drainage and storage plan

Up-scaling to LGED, WARPO, BWDB, DoE, Climate Change Cell Involving Gs

OUTCOMES

Outcome Logic Model

Change in KAS

Change in Practice/ behavior

Project outputs

Detailed map of polders & land type, Data,DEM, Freshwater & salinity zoning map Assessment of polder performance in terms of drainage & irrigation external drivers, scenarios Effects of external drivers on salinity intrusion, water availability, inundation risk due to flood and storm surge

Farmers and fishers of polder 3, 30 and 43/2F Encouraged to Knowledge enhancement participate in Awareness building discussions Researchers of G1, G2, G3 & other ongoing projects Motivated to use knowledge & Use of data & information information Interpreting maps, charts, data Development of new database Understanding of external drivers WMAs, LGI, BWDB, WARPO, LGED and NGOs Acquiring new Improved planning and knowledge & potential design benefits of adaptation Change in present Encouraged to adopt practice of polder management

Ministries of water resources, environment & forests, agriculture and fisheries in Bangladesh Scaling up Understanding of the effects of external drivers & anticipated change of water resources and the benefits of adaptation measures will encourage these policymakers to be motivated to formulate new policies. It will also enable them for advocacy to the development partners.

Impact
Improved and resilient water infrastructure and operation Improved Polder management for maximizing crop & fish production and minimizing inundation risk due to flood and storm surge

Resilient and improved plan of polder infrastructure

Ministry of Water Resources, MoEF, C.C. Cell Understanding of effects Assimilation of new of external drivers knowledge and information in project Motivated and planning and encouraged approval

Study Area:

Ganges Dependent Area in Bangladesh Project Target Area:

Coastal Zone of the Ganges basin in Bangladesh except the Sundarbans Coastal Divisions: Barisal: Patuakhali, Barguna Khulna: Khulna & Satkhira districts Polders: 3 (Satkhira), 30 (Khulna), 43-2F (Patuakhali)

River Network South-west region

1. Hisna ~ Matabhanga ~Betna ~ Kholpetua 2. Kobadak ~ Sibsa 3. Bhairab ~ Rupsa ~ Pussur 4. Gorai ~ Nabagonga ~ Atai ~ Rupsa ~ Pussur 5. Gorai ~ Rupsa ~ sholmari ~ Sibsa 6. Gorai ~ Madhumati ~ Baleswar 7. Arial Khan ~ Baleswar 8. Arial Khan ~ Biskhali 9. Arial Khan ~ Buriswar

Rivers & Coastal Polders in the Ganges Coastal Area of Bangladesh

No. of Polders= 53 No. of Polders= 53 Gross Area= 801894 ha Gross Area= 801894 ha

Prevention of Salinity Intrusion

Enabling environment for enhancing

agriculture and aquaculture

Improvement of Socio-economic
condition and employment Opportunity
Polder 30 Polder 3

Polder 43/2f

Salinity Dynamics in the Peripheral river of Polder-43/2f

Kharif-2

Rabi

Kharif-1

POLDER-43/2f

Kharif-2

Rabi

Kharif-1

POLDER-30

POLDER-3
Salinity Level remain below 2 ppt form end of July to Early December

Internal Drainage System & Storage Capacity

Cross-section of Moradaha Khal
3

Level (mPWD)

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Distance (m)

Cross-section of Bazar Khal

3.5 3.0

Level (mPWD)

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

Drinage channel Storage:2.43Mm3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Distance (m)

Road Network and Change of Drainage Pattern

Polder-30

Digital Elevation Model from Land Level Survey

Polder 3 Polder 30

Polder 43/2F

Water flow Models

Q Q
Water Flow boundary

Water Flow at Pussur River

Water Flow Model of South-West Region

QQ
WL

Water Level at Pussur River

WL WL

WL WL

2 Dimensional Model (Bay of Bengal Model) Water flow boundary from SWRM Water level from Global Tide Model

WL

Salinity Models
0 ppt 0 ppt 0 ppt
2 Dimensional Model (Bay of Bengal Model) Measured salinity at upstream boundaries Sea Salinity = 30 to 35 ppt

Sal
1 Dimensional Model South-West Regional Model salinity is zero at upstream Downstream salinity is taken sal from calibrated BoB model

Sal

Sal

Sal

Sal sal

Sal

sal

Salinity = 32 ppt
Salinity boundary

Calibration of Water flow Model (SWRM)

Bardia Mongla

Water Flow (m3/s)

Akram Point (Pussur River)

Water Flow (m3/s)

Akram Point (Sibsa River)

Water Level (mPWD)

Water Flow (m3/s)

Water Flow (m3/s)

Water Flow (m3/s)

Calibration of Water flow Model (BoB)

Water Flow (m3/s)

Calibration of Salinity Model (BoB)

Validation of South-West Regional Model (Salinity)

South-West Regional Model

Salinity at Rupsa River

Digital Elevation and Drainage Network of the Ganges River Basin used in SWAT Model

Tidal window above 1.40 mPWD

Area (Sq Km)

25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 Elevation (mPWD) 3 4

60

40

20

Avg WL 1.00m PWD

Kharif-1

Avg WL 1.20m PWD

Kharif-2

Avg WL 0.80m PWD

Rabi

Area (Percent)

45 Level (mPWD) 1.0 40 1.2 1.4 35 1.8 30 2.0

Area Elevation curve (Polder 43/2F)

Area below (%) 9 23 52 92 98
100

80

Average of Peak water level during kharif-2

Salinity Zoning Maps (Preliminary)

Approach of Selecting the Key External Drivers of change

Experts of different disciplines Researchers of G1, G2, G3, G4 & G5 and other projects Literature Review and Interaction with G4 partners Questionnaire Survey

Triangulation Workshop

Key External Drivers and ranking

Farmers and Fishers

Focus Group Discussions

Community Consultation
FGD at Polder 30
Place: Kismat-Fultola, Batiaghata Participant: Fishermen (6 women, 9 men)
Priority Issue
1 Loss of connectivity between river and floodplain/ human intervention 2 Obstruction of khals/rivers by net-pata, charu or other obstruction 3 Beels and other fish habitats have been destroyed 4 Connectivity of the khals have been lost, hampers fish migration Place: Fultola, Batiaghata 5 Fertilizers and pesticides destroyed fish Participant: Farmers (3 women, 20 men) 6 Population growth is a major problem, increase of fishers decrease fish production Priority Issue 7 Navigability of the rivers have decreased 1 Polder embankment overtopping because of rising water level and river 8 Leasing of BWDB drainage khals and illegal khal encroachments sedimentation 9 Fishing the fish with eggs Recurrent water Fishers have to sell drainage system and river sedimentation, in 10 2 Market accessibility.logging due to poorfish to the middleman at a lower price future this problem will become more severe 11 Increase in salinity of the river water attracts crocodiles which is a threat to the fishers 3 WMA is active in the area but there is a fund crisis 4 5 6 Drainage congestion due to khal leasing and poor management of khal and regulators Reduction of yield of sesame and rice crop due to poor drainage Increase of salinity level in the rivers and khals due to decrease of sweet water from upstream Participants believe that Farakka Barrage is among other causes of river sedimentation

Findings

FGD at Polder 43/2F

Community Consultation
Place: Gulishakhali Union Parishad, Amtali Participant: Farmer (7 women, 15 men)

Priority Issue
1 2 3 4 5 Inadequate embankment height and less number of cyclone shelter Scarcity of Water in Dry Seasons for irrigation and household works Insufficient Water Control Structures Permanent Leasing of khals Insufficient Linkage among khals due to less number of culverts on roads inside polder Improper Irrigation for high and low lands Coordination Problem in Between Govt. Officials and Local People

Findings

6 7

Triangulation Workshop
Group-3 Group-1

Activities

Group-2 Group-4

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6

Group-1 Change in transboundary flow and sharing mechanism Population growth Water infrastructure & Management Land use change Water and land policy, governance and institution Sea level rise& water quality

Findings

Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Group-4 Trans-boundary Flow Change in Water Management Practice Population Growth Land Use Change Sea Level Rise Water Infrastructure Development Urbanization Changes in Water Use

Triangulation Workshop Group Discussion Results Rank Group-2 Change in Trans-boundary 1 Flow Change in Water Management 2 Practices 3 Water Use Change Change in Water Governance 4 and Institutions 5 Land-use Change
Rank 1 2 Group-3 Change in transboundary flow Population growth

4 5

Land use change including increase in area under rice cultivation Climate change Change in water governance and institutions

Drivers and Scenarios

Final List of Key External Drivers

Scenarios
Single or combination of the external drivers
2030 and 2050

Scenario Generation Workshop

Participants
Experts, service providers, practitioners and academicians Policy planners representatives from other Gs Stakeholders and community representatives

Scenario Generation
Group-1
Transboundary flow+ population growth + landuse change+ climate change

Group-2
Population growth+ landuse change+ water use change+ urbanization

2 scenarios

6 scenarios

14 scenarios
5 scenarios
Group-3
Transboundary flow+ population growth + landuse change

6 scenarios
Group-4
Transboundary flow(-) + Climate change(-) + landuse change(-)+ Population growth(-)+ Water governance(+) + water use change+ water infrastructure development(+)

Future Scenariosure
1. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including ppt, temp & SLR)A2+ Urbanization 2. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Urbanization 3. Change in transboundary flow (historical max)+Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development 4. Change in transboundary flow (historical max)+Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development 5. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development + Urbanization 6. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development+Urbanization 7. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change 8. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+ Water infrastructure development

Future Scenarios
9. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices +Climate change, A2+Change in water governance and institutions +Water use change + Water infrastructure development 10. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+Climate change, A1B+Change in water governance and institutions +Water use change + Water infrastructure development 11. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2 12. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B 13. Change in transboundary flow (historical minimum)+Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development 14. Change in transboundary flow(historical minimum) +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development

Projection of Maximum Temperature and mean Rainfall in Satkhira (Polder 3)

GCM used: HadM3
Emission Scenario: A2
Period Month Parameter DJF MAM JJAS ON (1961-1990) Temperature (Deg. C) Mean 27.2 34.7 32.4 31.1 Period Month Param eter DJF MAM JJAS ON (1961-1990) Precipitation intensity (mm/day) Mean 0.52 2.53 10.10 2.73 2020 (2011-2040) Temperature (Deg. C) Mean 27.8 34.9 35.1 32.1 (%) increase in 2020
4.0 2.0 1.5 2.7

2050(2041-2070) Temperature (Deg. C) Mean 28.9 35.4 35.9 33.2 (%) increase in 2050 5.5 3.1 1.9 4.1 2050(2041-2070) Precipitation intensity (mm/day) Mean 0.76 3.53 11.32 2.03 (%) increase in 2050
4.40 13.11 2.54 -3.77

2020 (2011-2040) Precipitation intensity (mm/day) Mean 0.73 3.12 11.04 2.11 (%) increase in 2020
39.98 23.31 9.34 -22.61

Sea Level Rise in Pussur & Sibsa River System

Projection of SLR from 1990-2100,based on IPCC temperature projections for three different emission scenarios(Rahmstrof,2009)
Rahmstorf (2009) prediction for Global SLR is 124cm, A1B in 2100 over 2000

Temperature ranges and associated sea-level ranges by the year 2100 for different IPCC emission scenarios

Water Level Analysis at Hironpoint

Simulation of External Driver of Change

Minimum Trans-boundary flow

South-West Regional Model

Sea level Rise (A1B2030,2050)

Effects of External drivers on Salinity intrusion and Fresh water availability

2 PPT Salinity line moves 10-15 km upwards 800 Sqkm more area is likely to be affected 2 PPT Salinity line moves 12-18 km upwards 1050 Sqkm more area is likely to be affected

15 Km

SWAT Modelling Population and Landuse Projection and effects on Water resources Dr. B Sharma

THANK

YOU

Road Network and Change of Drainage Pattern

Polder-30