Professional Documents
Culture Documents
G4: Assessment of the Impact of Anticipated External Drivers of Change on Water Resources of Coastal Zone
Methodology
G4: Assessment of the impact of anticipated external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone
Literature Review
Outputs
Selection of Drivers of Change Involving Gs and other Stakeholders
Detailed map of polders
OUTCOMES
Change in KAS
Project outputs
Detailed map of polders & land type, Data,DEM, Freshwater & salinity zoning map Assessment of polder performance in terms of drainage & irrigation external drivers, scenarios Effects of external drivers on salinity intrusion, water availability, inundation risk due to flood and storm surge
Farmers and fishers of polder 3, 30 and 43/2F Encouraged to Knowledge enhancement participate in Awareness building discussions Researchers of G1, G2, G3 & other ongoing projects Motivated to use knowledge & Use of data & information information Interpreting maps, charts, data Development of new database Understanding of external drivers WMAs, LGI, BWDB, WARPO, LGED and NGOs Acquiring new Improved planning and knowledge & potential design benefits of adaptation Change in present Encouraged to adopt practice of polder management
Ministries of water resources, environment & forests, agriculture and fisheries in Bangladesh Scaling up Understanding of the effects of external drivers & anticipated change of water resources and the benefits of adaptation measures will encourage these policymakers to be motivated to formulate new policies. It will also enable them for advocacy to the development partners.
Impact
Improved and resilient water infrastructure and operation Improved Polder management for maximizing crop & fish production and minimizing inundation risk due to flood and storm surge
Ministry of Water Resources, MoEF, C.C. Cell Understanding of effects Assimilation of new of external drivers knowledge and information in project Motivated and planning and encouraged approval
Study Area:
Improvement of Socio-economic
condition and employment Opportunity
Polder 30 Polder 3
Polder 43/2f
Kharif-2
Rabi
Kharif-1
POLDER-43/2f
Kharif-2
Rabi
Kharif-1
POLDER-30
POLDER-3
Salinity Level remain below 2 ppt form end of July to Early December
Level (mPWD)
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Distance (m)
Level (mPWD)
Distance (m)
Polder-30
Polder 3 Polder 30
Polder 43/2F
QQ
WL
WL WL
WL WL
2 Dimensional Model (Bay of Bengal Model) Water flow boundary from SWRM Water level from Global Tide Model
WL
Salinity Models
0 ppt 0 ppt 0 ppt
2 Dimensional Model (Bay of Bengal Model) Measured salinity at upstream boundaries Sea Salinity = 30 to 35 ppt
Sal
1 Dimensional Model South-West Regional Model salinity is zero at upstream Downstream salinity is taken sal from calibrated BoB model
Sal
Sal
Sal
Sal sal
Sal
sal
Salinity = 32 ppt
Salinity boundary
Digital Elevation and Drainage Network of the Ganges River Basin used in SWAT Model
25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 Elevation (mPWD) 3 4
60
40
20
Kharif-1
Kharif-2
Rabi
Area (Percent)
80
Triangulation Workshop
Community Consultation
FGD at Polder 30
Place: Kismat-Fultola, Batiaghata Participant: Fishermen (6 women, 9 men)
Priority Issue
1 Loss of connectivity between river and floodplain/ human intervention 2 Obstruction of khals/rivers by net-pata, charu or other obstruction 3 Beels and other fish habitats have been destroyed 4 Connectivity of the khals have been lost, hampers fish migration Place: Fultola, Batiaghata 5 Fertilizers and pesticides destroyed fish Participant: Farmers (3 women, 20 men) 6 Population growth is a major problem, increase of fishers decrease fish production Priority Issue 7 Navigability of the rivers have decreased 1 Polder embankment overtopping because of rising water level and river 8 Leasing of BWDB drainage khals and illegal khal encroachments sedimentation 9 Fishing the fish with eggs Recurrent water Fishers have to sell drainage system and river sedimentation, in 10 2 Market accessibility.logging due to poorfish to the middleman at a lower price future this problem will become more severe 11 Increase in salinity of the river water attracts crocodiles which is a threat to the fishers 3 WMA is active in the area but there is a fund crisis 4 5 6 Drainage congestion due to khal leasing and poor management of khal and regulators Reduction of yield of sesame and rice crop due to poor drainage Increase of salinity level in the rivers and khals due to decrease of sweet water from upstream Participants believe that Farakka Barrage is among other causes of river sedimentation
Findings
Community Consultation
Place: Gulishakhali Union Parishad, Amtali Participant: Farmer (7 women, 15 men)
Priority Issue
1 2 3 4 5 Inadequate embankment height and less number of cyclone shelter Scarcity of Water in Dry Seasons for irrigation and household works Insufficient Water Control Structures Permanent Leasing of khals Insufficient Linkage among khals due to less number of culverts on roads inside polder Improper Irrigation for high and low lands Coordination Problem in Between Govt. Officials and Local People
Findings
6 7
Triangulation Workshop
Group-3 Group-1
Activities
Group-2 Group-4
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6
Group-1 Change in transboundary flow and sharing mechanism Population growth Water infrastructure & Management Land use change Water and land policy, governance and institution Sea level rise& water quality
Findings
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Group-4 Trans-boundary Flow Change in Water Management Practice Population Growth Land Use Change Sea Level Rise Water Infrastructure Development Urbanization Changes in Water Use
Triangulation Workshop Group Discussion Results Rank Group-2 Change in Trans-boundary 1 Flow Change in Water Management 2 Practices 3 Water Use Change Change in Water Governance 4 and Institutions 5 Land-use Change
Rank 1 2 Group-3 Change in transboundary flow Population growth
4 5
Land use change including increase in area under rice cultivation Climate change Change in water governance and institutions
Scenarios
Single or combination of the external drivers
2030 and 2050
Participants
Experts, service providers, practitioners and academicians Policy planners representatives from other Gs Stakeholders and community representatives
Scenario Generation
Group-1
Transboundary flow+ population growth + landuse change+ climate change
Group-2
Population growth+ landuse change+ water use change+ urbanization
2 scenarios
6 scenarios
14 scenarios
5 scenarios
Group-3
Transboundary flow+ population growth + landuse change
6 scenarios
Group-4
Transboundary flow(-) + Climate change(-) + landuse change(-)+ Population growth(-)+ Water governance(+) + water use change+ water infrastructure development(+)
Future Scenariosure
1. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including ppt, temp & SLR)A2+ Urbanization 2. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Urbanization 3. Change in transboundary flow (historical max)+Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development 4. Change in transboundary flow (historical max)+Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development 5. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development + Urbanization 6. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development+Urbanization 7. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change 8. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+ Water infrastructure development
Future Scenarios
9. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices +Climate change, A2+Change in water governance and institutions +Water use change + Water infrastructure development 10. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+Climate change, A1B+Change in water governance and institutions +Water use change + Water infrastructure development 11. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2 12. Change in transboundary flow +Population growth+Land use change+Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B 13. Change in transboundary flow (historical minimum)+Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A2+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development 14. Change in transboundary flow(historical minimum) +Population growth+ Change in water management practices+ Climate change (including pptn, temp & SLR)A1B+ Change in water governance and institutions (including policy change)+Water infrastructure development
2050(2041-2070) Temperature (Deg. C) Mean 28.9 35.4 35.9 33.2 (%) increase in 2050 5.5 3.1 1.9 4.1 2050(2041-2070) Precipitation intensity (mm/day) Mean 0.76 3.53 11.32 2.03 (%) increase in 2050
4.40 13.11 2.54 -3.77
2020 (2011-2040) Precipitation intensity (mm/day) Mean 0.73 3.12 11.04 2.11 (%) increase in 2020
39.98 23.31 9.34 -22.61
Temperature ranges and associated sea-level ranges by the year 2100 for different IPCC emission scenarios
15 Km
SWAT Modelling Population and Landuse Projection and effects on Water resources Dr. B Sharma
THANK
YOU
Polder-30