New Jersey Surveys May 11-16, 2011

A review of the potential 2011 electorate and their views on the State Supreme Court and their decisions.

Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

The Supreme Court Operates in Anonymity

78 percent of voters have not heard of Chief Justice Stuart Rabner. 84 percent have not heard of Justice Virginia Long, the Courts longest serving member, on the court since 1999. Overall, the Supreme Court has an upside down Favorable/Unfavorable rating of 13-15 with 19% mixed. It is 15-0 with liberals, 17-15 with moderates and 8-18 with conservatives.

Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

The State Supreme Court is viewed as liberal, and those who view it as liberal are negative.

Overall, 34 percent say the Supreme Court is liberal, 24 percent moderate and 9 percent conservative. Those who view it as liberal are 9-29 unfavorable while those who say it is moderate are 21-1 favorable. Among those favorable to the court, 25 percent say it is liberal, 42 percent moderate and 19 percent conservative. Among those unfavorable to the court, 70 percent say it is liberal, 3 percent moderate and 10 percent conservative. Views on the court polarize the electorate.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Abbott Question Wording

The Abbott Court decisions require wealthier, mostly suburban and rural school districts to pay higher property taxes to keep property taxes down in poorer, mostly urban districts. Do you think these decisions were good decisions or bad decisions?
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Voters Dislike the Abbott Decisions by a 29-52 margin.

Overall, 27% of voters have heard of the Abbott Court decision and were able to correctly identify it. Those aware of the case opposed it by 27-56. Liberals support Abbott by 43-32 while moderates oppose it by 37-46 and conservatives by 22-56. Generic Democrats (in legislative races) support it by 53-30 while generic Republicans are 17-65 against a polarizing 71 point shift.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Urban Voters Are Lukewarm on Abbott.

Within the Abbott Districts (13% of the sample), 35% of voters could correctly identify the Abbott decision. Overall only half of urban voters supported the Abbott decision while 30% opposed it. Among those who could correctly identify the decision, only 43% supported it while 36 percent are opposed. 37% of Africans had heard of Abbott, but overall, blacks backed the decision by only 53-21. 28% of Latinos could identify this decision and they support it by a narrow 48-36.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Voters, by a 50-37 margin, wanted Governor Christie to stand up to the Court

Governor Christie has said he will defy the State Supreme Court if they order even more tax dollars for poorer, mostly urban districts. Should he defy the court? Liberals disagree, but only by 37-56 and moderates by only 44-46, but conservatives support defying the court by a whopping 52-26 margin. Generic Democrats disagree by 30-57 while generic Republicans agree by 59-24 a solid 62 point shift. Christie favorables supported the move by 63-19.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Abbott District Voters Split 43-43 on whether Christie should have defied the Court.

Even voters in the Cities have had enough of the out-of-control Supreme Court. Generic Democrats in the Abbotts (who outnumber Republicans by 73-13), oppose defying the Court, but only by 38-45. Even 35 percent of Obama Favorables in the Abbotts wanted Christie to stand up to the Court (54 percent opposed). Latinos support ed that position by 44-25 but Africans opposed it by 16-68.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Mount Laurel Question Wording

The Supreme Court Mount Laurel decisions require every New Jersey town to zone for high-density housing for lower income families and to subsidize the property taxes on that housing. Do you think these decisions were good decisions or bad decisions?
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Voters Oppose the Mount Laurel Housing Decisions by 24-50.

Overall, 27% correctly identified the Mount Laurel court decisions as dealing with low income affordable housing and this group opposed the rulings by 28-56. Liberals support Mount Laurel by a weak 43-32 while moderates oppose it by 31-42 and conservatives by 1860. Generic Republicans oppose it by 14-68 while generic Democrats back it by 49-24 a 79 point split and even greater than Abbott This issue separates suburban and rural voters from urban voters much more than the school funding issue.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Right to Choose v Byrne Wording

The Supreme Court decision in Right to Choose v Byrne required taxpayers to pay for abortions for women who could not afford them. Do you think this is a good decision or a bad decision?

Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

By 26-62, voters oppose the RTC v Byrne ruling mandating taxpayer paid abortions

Liberals support this decision, but only by 48-33. Moderates oppose it by 28-62 and conservatives by 1873. Generic Republicans are opposed 17-74 and generic Democrats split 41-42 against. There is a split by religious attendance. Those who attend services weekly (45%) oppose this decision by 15-73, those who never attend services (28%) oppose it by a smaller 37-49. Men oppose it 30-58 and women by 24-63.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Just 11% believe judges should have the power to raise taxes.
Is it proper for Judges to order the legislature to increase taxes in certain circumstances?

Only 21% of generic Democrats, 19% of Obama favorables, 16% of Latinos and Africans, 15% of Christie unfavorables and 13% of those in the Abbott Districts agreed with this. And only 22% of those who support the Abbott decision agree with this statement.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Voters by 59-31 back replacing the Court appointment process with direct election.
Should State Supreme Court Justices be elected by the people or appointed by the Governor and approved by the State Senate?

The idea of electing justices has support across the board. Conservatives back it by 62-30, moderates by 58-30 and liberals by a surprising 65-26. Generic Republicans support it by 61-31 and generic Democrats by a bigger 65-25.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Voters by 65-24 back Retention Elections for Supreme Court Justices

In some states, Supreme Court Justices are appointed for a term of six to eight years and then have to go before the voters for retention elections to stay on the court. Do you like this idea or not?

This concept actually has more appeal to liberals than conservatives. While conservatives support this by 5926 and generic Republicans by 59-28, moderates back them by 69-22, generic Democrats by 69-21 and liberals by a whopping 78-17.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Christies Unfavorables are lower than October 2009

The Governors unfavorable ratings have fluctuated between the high 20s and low 30s for much of the past two years including the post-primary period. His 29% unfavorable rating in this survey compares to 31% as a candidate in October 2009. Christies favorables have increased from 28% to 50% in that same time. His numbers have improved from 31-24 with men to 52-27 today and from 25-27 with women to 48-32. His gains have been biggest among the most conservative voters.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

The likely November electorate is conservative and leans Republican.

Conservatives outnumber liberals among likely voters by 42-17, and an even bigger 44-17 among definite voters, a small increase from 39-18 among definite voters in October 2009. Just 32 percent consider themselves moderates, 31 percent with definite voters, down from 35 percent in October 2009. The share of definite voters who consider themselves conservative nearly equals the liberal and moderate total combined.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Conclusions

The Supreme Court operates in anonymity and the Justices are unknown. The Court is perceived as liberal and those who see it that way are very negative. Voters strongly oppose the Abbott, Mount Laurel and Right to Choose decisions and even voters in the Abbott Districts are skeptical of the decision. The public would have supported Governor Christie had he stood up to the Court.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Conclusions

Only a tiny fraction agree with political insiders, editorial writers and academics that the Supreme Court should be able to force the legislature to raise taxes. The Court issue, if utilized by Republicans, has the potential of polarizing the electorate in their favor, perhaps enough to deliver them the legislature. The public across the board is very favorable to the idea of electing judges and even more supportive of judicial retention elections and this has broad bipartisan and cross-ideological support.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey

Methodology

Neighborhood Research completed 302 surveys of randomly selected registered voters who had participated in either the 2009 or 2010 general elections and said their chances of voting in the November 2011 elections were definite or very likely. Calls were made by live operators from facilities in Franklin, New Jersey. The theoretical margin of error is +/- 5.6% in 95% of cases. Surveys were completed between May 11 and May 16, 2011. 1% of surveys were completed in Spanish.
Neighborhood Research Corp. Sparta New Jersey