Powering the Planet

Energy and Renewables: Muhammad Ali Bohyo 07 MS STP 02

Global Energy Perspective

Present Energy Perspective Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability Challenges in Exploiting Carbon-Neutral Energy Sources Economically on the Needed Scale

Perspective
Energy is the single most important challenge facing humanity today. Nobel Laureate Rick Smalley, April 2004, Testimony to U.S. Senate
..energy is the single most important scientific and technological challenge facing humanity in the 21st century..: Chemical and Engineering News, August 22, 2005. What should be the centerpiece of a policy of American renewal is blindingly obvious: making a quest for energy independence the moon shot of our generation, Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, Sept. 23, 2005. The time for progress is now. .. it is our responsibility to lead in this mission, Susan Hockfield, on energy, in her MIT Inauguration speech.

Power Units: The Terawatt Challenge

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Power

1 1W

103 1 kW

106 1 MW

109 1 GW

1012 1 TW

Energy 1J= 1 W for 1 s

Global Energy Consumption, 2001

5 4.5 4 3.5 3 TW 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 4.66

2.89

2.98

1.24 0.285 Oil

Gas

0.92 0.286

Coal

Hydro Biomass Renew Nuclear

Total: 13.2 TW

U.S.: 3.2 TW (96 Quads)

Energy From Renewables, 2001

1

2E-1
0.1

7E-2

1E-2
0.01

TW

5E-3

6E-3

0.001

1E-4 1E-4
0.0001

7E-5

10

-5

Elec Elect

Heat Heat

EtOH EtOH

Wind Solar PVSolThTh. T Sol Ht LowT Wind Sol PV Solar Low Sol Hydro Geoth Marine Hydro Geoth Marine

Biomass

Today: Production Cost of Electricity

(in the U.S. in 2002)
25-50
25 20 15 10 Cost

1-4
5 0 Coal

2.3-5.0 6-8

5-7

6-7

Gas

Oil

Wind

Nuclear

Solar

Energy Costs
$0.05/kW-hr
14 12 10 $/GJ 8
Brazil Europe

6 4 2 0 Coal Oil

Biomass

Elect

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea

Oil Supply Curves

WEO est. required total need to 2030

Energy and Sustainability

Its hard to make predictions, especially about the future

M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881, Energy Implications of Future Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Content
adapted from IPCC 92 Report: Leggett, J. et. al. in Climate Change, The Supplementary Report to the Scientific IPCC Assessment, 69-95, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992

Greenland Ice Sheet

Permafrost

Coral Bleaching

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Projected Carbon-Free Primary Power

2005 usage: 14 TW

Renewable Energy Cost Trends

Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
40 COE cents/kWh 100

Wind
30 20 10 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 2020

80 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010

PV

2020

10 COE cents/kWh 8 6 4 2

Geothermal

Solar thermal

15

Biomass

12
9 6 3 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

0 1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt) 1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. Updated: October 2002

Renewable Electricity Technology Cost Trends

Chart Notes, Page 1
Background The Cost Curves are expressed in constant, 2000 year dollars and based on a uniform set of financial assumptions consistent with Generating Company Ownership (balance-sheet financing). Actual project costs can vary substantially not only over time, but from project to project based on variables such as siting and permitting costs, land costs, transmission access, labor costs, and financing terms. The Cost Curves are not based on specific project data, but are composite representations derived from a variety of sources outlined below. Historic costs from 1980 to 1995 generally reflect costs that were published in various DOE Renewable Energy Program plans such as five-year program plans, annual budgets, and other program publications. The Future Cost Curves generally reflect how the DOE Renewable Energy Programs expect the costs of renewable energy to decrease through lowered technology costs and improved performances, resulting from R&D efforts and other factors. Projections of cost to 2020 for biomass, geothermal, and photovoltaic energy technologies are based on the DOE/EPRI Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations published in 1997. Wind and solar thermal costs represent more recent DOE Renewable Energy Program projections. The Cost Curves generally assume the availability of high-quality resources. This is an important point because systems using lower quality resources are being built, in some cases with costs as much as double those shown. The Cost Curves do not include the effects of tax credits or production tax incentives.

Renewable Electricity Technology Cost Trends

Chart Notes, Page 2
General Observations The renewable technology cost trends typically show a steep decline from 1980 to the present. Projections show this decline to continue, but at a slower absolute pace as the technologies mature. Historic cost of energy trends reflected in this chart are in broad agreement with the trends published in Winner, Loser, or Innocent Victim? Has Renewable Energy Performed as Expected? Renewable Energy Policy Project, Report No. 7, April 1999. Technology Specific Notes Wind technology cost projections represent wind power systems in locations with Class 6 resources. Low wind-speed turbine technology is under development, which will make available large amounts of usable wind resources that are closer to transmission. Lower costs will result from design and technology improvements across the spectrum from foundations and towers, to turbine blades, hubs, generators, and electronics. Biomass cost projections are based on gasification technology. Lower costs will result from technology improvements indicated by current pilot plant operations and evaluation, including improvements in feedstock handling, gas processing/cleanup, and overall plant design optimization. Geothermal cost projections are for Flash technology. Cost reductions will result from more efficient and productive resource exploration and characterization as well as from continued improvements in heat exchangers, fluid-handling technologies, turbines, and generators. Solar thermal cost projections are for Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Technologies and are based on a detailed due-diligence study completed in 2002 at the request of DOE. Cost reductions will result from improved reflectors and lower-cost heliostat designs, improved solar thermal receivers, heat exchangers and fluid handling technologies, and turbines and generators, as well as from volume manufacturing. Photovoltaic cost projections are based on increasing penetration of thin-film technology into the building sector. Likely technology improvements include higher efficiencies, increased reliability (which can reduce module prices), improved manufacturing processes, and lower balance of system costs through technology improvements and volume sales.

Hoffert et al.s Conclusions

These results underscore the pitfalls of wait and see. Without policy incentives to overcome socioeconomic inertia, development of needed technologies will likely not occur soon enough to allow capitalization on a 10-30 TW scale by 2050 Researching, developing, and commercializing carbon-free primary power technologies capable of 10-30 TW by the mid-21st century could require efforts, perhaps international, pursued with the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Space Program.

Lewis Conclusions
If we need such large amounts of carbon-free power, then: current pricing is not the driver for year 2050 primary energy supply Hence,

Examine energy potential of various forms of renewable energy

Examine technologies and costs of various renewables Examine impact on secondary power infrastructure and energy utilization

Conclusions

Abundant, Inexpensive Resource Base of Fossil Fuels Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generation unless/until: technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, or unpriced externalities are introduced (e.g., environmentally -driven carbon taxes)