Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FUEL SUBSIDY
2.
Is the positive difference from net fuel sales less fuel cost
(Petrol Sales Petrol Production Cost) > 0
Fuel Subsidy
Is the negative difference from net fuel sales les fuel cost
(Petrol Sales Petrol Production Cost) < 0
BIAYA BBM
HASIL PENJUALAN
(VOL X HARGA)
BIAYA OPERASI
BIAYA
PENGOLAHAN
MINYAK MENTAH
PRORATA
MINYAK MENTAH
INKIND
PREMIUM
M. TANAH
BIAYA
DISTRIBUSI
M. DIESEL
M. SOLAR
BIAYA
ANGKUTAN LAUT
KONTRAKTOR
PERTAMINA
KONTRAKTOR
PERTAMINA
PEMB. M. MENTAH
IMPOR
DALAM NEGERI
BIAYA
BUNGA
M. BAKAR
BIAYA
KANTOR PUSAT
PEMB. PRODUK
IMPOR
DALAM NEGERI
BIAYA
PENYUSUTAN
(dikurangi)
(dikurangi/ditambah)
STOCK VARIANCE
MARGIN
PEMEGANG
POMPA
PPN
Subsidy Calculation
PBBKB
(dikurangi)
LBM /
(SUBSIDI) BBM
Depkeu
BPH Migas
Depkeu
Bank Indonesia
+
DESDM
Bappenas
Penetapan :
a. Volume dan jenis BBM yang disubsidi serta volume minyak tanah yang disubstitusi ke LPG
b. Harga Minyak Mentah (kisaran)
2.
3.
Pemerintah
1.
KOMISI XI
DPR-RI
Panitia
Anggaran DPRRI
SUBSIDI BBM
Harga Patokan
MOPS
Alpha
Premium
Premium
Delta MOPS
CRUDE
Minyak Tanah
Minyak Tanah
ICP
Biaya
pengolahan
di kilang
Transportasi,
Pelayanan Umum,
Usaha Kecil dan Usaha
Perikanan
Minyak Solar
Minyak Solar
Transportasi dan
Pelayanan
UmumUsaha Kecil dan
Usaha Perikanan
Product
Konsumen
Jenis BBM
1. Premium *)
4.500
6.000
2.000
2.500
3. Minyak Solar *)
4.300
5.500
*) Termasuk Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) dan Pajak Bahan Bakar Kendaraan Bermotor (PBBKB) **) Termasuk PPN
Keterangan
2008
APBN-P
APBN
Parameter :
a. Harga MM Indonesia (US$/bbl)
b. Nilai Tukar (Rp./US$1)
c. Volume BBM (KL)
- Premium
- Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
- Minyak Solar
1.
2.
Subsidi LPG
3.
4.
Kekurangan TA 2007
a. Premium
b. Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
c. Minyak Solar
d. Sub Jumlah (a+b+c)
e. LPG
f. Jumlah (d+e)
5.
Jumlah (3+4)
Proyeksi
2009
Skenario
60,00
9.100,00
35.836.525
16.950.000
7.886.525
11.000.000
95,00
9.100,00
35.537.746
16.976.292
7.561.454
11.000.000
110,00
9.000,00
35.696.631
16.470.000
8.526.631
10.700.000
120,00
9.100,00
38.854.448
20.444.354
5.804.911
12.605.183
1.144.019.930
2.013.475
13,50%
1.144.019.930
2.013.475
9,00%
286.920.188
503.369
9,00%
1.600.000.000
4.000.000
9.00 (fixed US$100)
(17.478,31)
(3.267,80)
(10.049,07)
(4.161,44)
(114.646,65)
(44.048,54)
(37.949,12)
(32.649,00)
(126.539,07)
(44.238,67)
(47.777,51)
(34.522,89)
(133.942,75)
(56.159,28)
(34.950,13)
(42.833,34)
(3.721,44)
(9.565,27)
(2.991,54)
(19.285,16)
(21.199,75)
(124.211,92)
(129.530,61)
(153.227,91)
(689,71)
(742,44)
(1.022,15)
(2.454,30)
(149,93)
(2.604,23)
(689,71)
(742,44)
(1.022,15)
(2.454,30)
(149,93)
(2.604,23)
(689,71)
(742,43)
(1.022,15)
(2.454,29)
(2.454,29)
(126.816,15)
(132.134,84)
(155.682,20)
(21.199,75)
Catatan :
1. Delta MOPS adalah periode Januari s.d Desember 2007.
2. Kekurangan subsidi BBM dan LPG TA 2007 secara keseluruhan berjumlah Rp5.058,53 miliar (unaudited).
3. H arga jual B B M s ebagai berikut :
1 J an-23 Mei 2008
24 Mei s .d s ekarang
- P remium
4.500,00
6.000,00
- Minyak T anah
2.000,00
2.500,00
- Minyak S olar
4.300,00
5.500,00
No.
Keterangan
APBN
1.
2.
3.
2003
APBN-P
Audit
APBN
Tahun
2004
APBN-P
Audit
APBN
2005
APBN-P I
APBN-P II
Audit
78.121,10
92.648,24
(14.527,14)
13.956,86
11.841,72
25.612,20
1.645,51
7.256,02
60.312,31
13.916,94
11.750,48
24.508,90
1.467,24
6.936,35
58.579,90
14.581,54
11.800,49
24.118,66
1.271,55
6.404,57
58.176,82
14.470,91
11.577,02
25.396,40
1.395,79
7.300,00
60.140,12
15.056,00
11.594,00
25.274,00
1.345,00
6.365,00
59.634,00
16.452,58
11.936,20
27.468,06
1.222,95
6.036,31
63.116,10
15.173,45
10.503,13
26.296,18
1.296,71
6.364,87
59.634,34
17.207,22
10.476,88
26.373,36
736,63
4.840,28
59.634,37
17.207,22
10.476,88
26.373,36
736,63
4.840,28
59.634,37
17.515,25
11.403,84
27.896,44
1.000,07
5.202,13
63.017,73
Parameter :
1.
2.
22,00
27,50
28,77
22,00
36,00
37,58
24,00
45,00
56,58
53,40
3.
9.000
8.500
8.551 a)
8.424 b)
8.600
8.900
8.891
8.600
9.300
9.800
9.662
Catatan :
a) Nilai tukar untuk tanggal 1 Januari s.d 16 September 2003
b) Nilai tukar untuk tanggal 17 September s.d 31 Desember 2003
Hasil audit exclude koreksi tahun lalu.
A.
B.
Keterangan
Subsidi BBM
a. Premium
b. Minyak Tanah
c. Minyak Solar
d. Jumlah (a+b+c)
APBN
APBN-P
(9.333,43)
(29.939,38)
(15.002,87)
(54.275,67)
(20.966,37)
(29.984,75)
(13.260,96)
(64.212,08)
2006
Real. Pembyr.
(Unaudited)
(19.759,07)
(31.578,69)
(12.874,32)
(64.212,08)
Audit
(12.014,93)
(34.084,49)
(13.403,42)
(59.502,84)
Subsidi LPG
C. Jumlah (A+B)
(54.275,67) (64.212,08)
(64.212,08) (59.502,84)
APBN-P
2007
Revisi
Real. Pembyr. s.d
Pagu
25 Des (unaudited)
(14.528,34)
(31.209,30)
(14.278,91)
(60.016,55)
(13.131,18)
(31.745,14)
(10.163,89)
(55.040,21)
(26.384,74)
(40.509,86)
(21.179,73)
(88.074,33)
(1.821,35)
(564,04)
(125,91)
(61.837,90)
(55.604,25)
(88.200,24)
APBN
2008
APBN
APBN-P
(26.666,54)
(40.935,04)
(21.099,33)
(88.700,91)
(7.868,52)
(24.197,11)
(10.020,30)
(42.085,93)
(44.738,25)
(38.691,55)
(33.671,15)
(117.100,95)
(149,93)
(3.721,44)
(9.715,21)
(83.792,32)
(88.850,84)
(45.807,37)
(126.816,15)
(25.287,12)
(39.450,17)
(19.055,03)
(83.792,32)
-
Perk. Real.
(Unaudited)
Parameter :
1.
17.080
10.000
14.498
17.000
9.900
11.000
16.770
10.014
11.037
16.807
9.959
10.667
17.000
8.912
11.000
16.582
9.591
9.858
17.645
9.787
10.812
17.599
9.689
10.150
17.930
9.852
10.884
16.950
7.887
11.000
16.976
7.561
11.000
41.578
37.900
37.821
37.433
36.912
36.031
38.244
37.437
38.665
35.837
35.538
567.767.000 181.274.250
988
319
20.638.836
36
2.
3.
ICP (US$/bbl)
57,00
64,00
63,80
64,26
63,00
60,00
72,59
72,31
72,31
60,00
95,00
4.
9.900
9.300
9.123
9.119
9.300
9.050
9.125
9.093
9.094
9.100
9.100
70.000
60.000
100.000
50.000
80.000
40.000
60.000
30.000
40.000
20.000
20.000
10.000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 *)
2008 *)
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Keterangan
Subsidi BBM
Premium
Minyak Tanah
Minyak Solar
Jumlah (1+2+3)
Parameter :
a. Harga MM Indonesia (US$/bbl)
b. Nilai Tukar (Rp./US$1)
c. Volume BBM (KL)
- Premium
- Minyak Tanah (Kerosene)
- Minyak Solar
d. Vol. Mitan yg disubstitusi ke LPG (kg)
(setara dengan KL)
e. Besaran alpha (%)
2010
2011
2012
(45.724,39)
(22.990,93)
(42.562,80)
(111.278,12)
(47.448,58)
(23.339,18)
(43.720,04)
(114.507,80)
(58.245,28)
(25.294,62)
(50.293,98)
(133.833,89)
(60.105,57)
(25.667,92)
(51.535,25)
(137.308,74)
(47.574,04)
(13.421,82)
(44.265,31)
(105.261,17)
(49.367,98)
(13.625,13)
(45.468,83)
(108.461,94)
(60.601,43)
(14.766,69)
(52.305,74)
(127.673,86)
(62.536,97)
(14.984,62)
(53.596,66)
(131.118,25)
(48.525,52)
(4.173,05)
(46.921,23)
(99.619,80)
(50.355,34)
(4.236,26)
(48.196,97)
(102.788,57)
(61.813,46)
(4.591,19)
(55.444,08)
(121.848,74)
(63.787,71)
(4.658,95)
(56.812,46)
(125.259,12)
(21.710,45)
(22.021,29)
(25.055,92)
(25.403,12)
(27.917,95)
(28.317,67)
(32.219,96)
(32.666,44)
(34.125,45)
(34.614,04)
(39.384,01)
(39.929,75)
(132.988,57)
(136.529,09)
(158.889,81)
(162.711,86)
(133.179,13)
(136.779,61)
(159.893,82)
(163.784,68)
(133.745,26)
(137.402,61)
(161.232,74)
(165.188,87)
(1.500,00)
(1.500,00)
(1.500,00)
(1.500,00)
(134.488,57)
(138.029,09)
(160.389,81)
(164.211,86)
(133.179,13)
(136.779,61)
(159.893,82)
(163.784,68)
(133.745,26)
(137.402,61)
(161.232,74)
(165.188,87)
110,00
9.200
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494
110,00
9.300
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494
120,00
9.200
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494
120,00
9.300
38.982.255
21.639.372
3.981.389
13.361.494
110,00
9.200
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953
110,00
9.300
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953
120,00
9.200
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953
120,00
9.300
38.734.972
22.514.733
2.324.286
13.895.953
110,00
9.200
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711
110,00
9.300
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711
120,00
9.200
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711
120,00
9.300
38.417.395
22.965.028
722.656
14.729.711
2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.240.652.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 2.881.304.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000 3.521.956.000
5.601.630
5.601.630
5.601.630
5.601.630
7.203.260
7.203.260
7.203.260
7.203.260
8.804.890
8.804.890
8.804.890
8.804.890
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
9,00
WITH ASSUMPTIONS(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities
growth estimated to be 6%
As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, theres a consumers usage shifting to a
subsidized gasoline
Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
Closed Distribution Monitoring System using control card in year 2010 estimated to be 83.210 families or
around 30%
Diesel Oil
Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities,
growth estimated to be 6%
As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, theres a tendency that industry and mining
transportation will use diesel oil
Increasing demand for diesel oil due to public holidays
Increasing sales in gas stations due to retail diesel oil usage
WITH ASSUMPTIONS(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities
growth estimated to be 4%
As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, theres a consumers usage shifting to a
subsidized gasoline
Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
Closed Distribution Monitoring System using control card in year 2011 estimated to be 55.473 families or
around 20%
Diesel Oil
Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities,
growth estimated to be 4%
As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, theres a tendency that industry and mining
transportation will use diesel oil
Increasing demand for diesel oil due to public holidays
Increasing sales in gas stations due to retail diesel oil usage
WITH ASSUMPTIONS(continued):
Gasoline (Premium)
Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities
growth estimated to be 2%
As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, theres a consumers usage shifting to a
subsidized gasoline
Increasing demand for gasoline due to public holidays
Increasing usage of portable electricity generator, and other non-motor-vehicles
Kerosene
Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for household approximately 1.601.630 families
Diesel Oil
Transportation Sector growth, due to increasing automobile & motorcycle sales and economic activities,
growth estimated to be 6%
As an impact of non-subsidized gasoline retail price increase, theres a tendency that industry and mining
transportation will use diesel oil
Increasing demand for diesel oil due to public holidays
Increasing sales in gas stations due to retail diesel oil usage
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