Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water: Bangladesh Perspective

Dr. Md. Shahjahan ALI Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET) Bangladesh

GBM Basin
Brahmaputra Basin 552,000 sq.km

CHINA INDIA Ganges Basin 1,087,000 sq.km INDIA

BANGLADESH

BHUTAN

Drainage basin inside Bangladesh Drainage basin outside Bangladesh

8% 92 %
Meghna Basin 82,000 sq.km

BAY O F B E N GAL

Water Resources
River System : 24,000 km (about 500 rivers) 3.3 % of the total landmass
Ganges (Inflow 380 BCM)

Brahmaputra (Inflow 626 BCM)

Meghna (Inflow 195 BCM

Still Water Bodies: 7,400 km2 5.3% of total landmass Annual Average Rainfall: 2300 mm Trans-boundary Flow: 57 rivers

Lower Meghna

B A Y OF B E N G A L

River System

Sources of Water
1200 BCM
76.5 %

Brahamaputra = 626 BCM Ganges =380 BCM Meghna = 195 BCM

Trans-boundary Rainfall
Ground water

23 BCM
Cubic meter

343 BCM 22%

1.5 %

Sources of Drinking Water

(1) Ground Water the main source of water supply in urban and rural areas Free from Pathogens and requires no treatment Urban Area: power driven production wells Vulnerable area for drinking water access to safe drinking water-99% supply Public water suply-47% Rural Area: Hand pumps 90% have access to tubewell within 150 m

(2) Surface Water: Pond sand filter (suitable for coastal belt) -Vulnerable to Climate Change (3) Rain Water: Rain water harvesting (Suitable for arsenic affected areas) -Vulnerable to Climate Change

Shortage of Drinking water in dry season due to Lowering GWT :

1. 2. Over pumping for irrigation Less water in river
Ground Water Level

Surface water
GW level reduced

Predicted Sea Level Rise for Bangladesh

Two Causes of SLR: Thermal expansion

Land ice melting

IPCC prediction: Conservative

SLR due to ice melting = 4 to 230 mm by 2100

Rapid dynamical changes in ice flow were excluded

Pfeiffer et al. (2008): Including dynamic changes, SLR=2m by 2100

Outline of this presentation

Climate Change Impacts on following water-events: 1. Occurrence of Extreme Floods in Bangladesh

2. Time Series of Main River Discharges (such as Ganges)

3. Salinity in SW region of Bangladesh 4. Dependable River flow in SW Bangladesh 5. Rainfall in SW Bangladesh 6. Drainage Congestion in South West City (Khulna)

7. Sundarban (Forest)

1. Occurrence of Floods in Bangladesh

(a

Climate Change Impacts on Floods in Bangladesh

120,000 80 70 60 100,000

Area (sq. km)

50 40 30 20

60,000

40,000

20,000

10 0 1954 1956 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1980 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year

20% of the country inundated in a normal flood, the highest flood inundates 67% in 1998 The top 5 floods in terms of inundated area occurred in last 20 years in 60 years of history.

Since 1970, 41 million people are became homeless and it is estimated that it will be 68 million till 2020 (Source. BBS, 2007; SLR is not considered).
IPCC, 2007 reported that a 1m SLR will displace 14.8 million people by inundating 29,846 sq. km.

% of total Area

80,000

Time-series of Floods indicate that there is impact of Climate Change on the Occurrence of frequent damaging floods.

Lets think about future Impacts!

1m sea level rise = 20% area flooded (IPCC, 2007) Nominal Flooding = 20% area inundation
Nominal 1998 1998

flooding + 1m SLR = 20% + 20% =?

flood + 1m SLR = 67% + 20% =?

flood + 1 m SLR + high tide/ Storm Surge = ?

Learning from Historical Mega Floods (Ganges Basin)

3

Water depth above Danger Level (m)

2008 (Normal Flood)

1998

1988

No. of Days for WL above DL

o 1998 Flood is the most devastating flood o Inundation close to 100,000 km2 o displaced more than 30 million people o 20 million homeless. o Estimated damage 2.8 billion USD ( for 1988 flood it was 1.2 billion USD)

Fig.: WL above DL
1

0 Dinajpur Rajshahi Hardinge Bridge Goalundo Bhagyakul Gorai Rly Bridge

100

80

2008 (Normal Flood)

1998

1988
68 72

60 47 41 40 28 20 3 0 Dinajpur Rajshahi Hardinge Bridge Goalundo Bhagyakul Gorai Rly Bridge 4 24 27 23 25 25

Fig.: Durations of flood Although the depth of flood in 1988 and 1998 does not differ too much (such as at Bhagyakul point), the duration of flood in 1998 is much more than 1988 flood .

Water depth above Danger Level (m)

2008 (Normal Flood)

2

1998

1988

Ja m al pu r

Ku ri g ra m

Se ra jg an j

M ym en s

Ba ha du r

No. of Days for WL above DL

100 80 60 40 20 0 30 16 22 15

2008 (Normal Flood)

1998

66 48 27 44

68 57 33 23 8 10

ar ay an ga nj

1988 71

31

31

36

ha

am

ha ka

an j

ng h

ar i

ur

nj

Ja m

ya ng a

hi lm

rig r

ra jg

Ar

en si

ur a

Ku

ha d

Se

ym

Ba

In Most of the locations of Brahmaputra basin, the inundation depth of 1998 flood is less than 1988 flood, BUT 1998 flood took more than double time to discharge out the flooded water.

ar a

Ta r

ag ha

ba

ic

al p

Ta ra gh at

Learning from Historical Mega Floods (Brahmaputra Basin)

hi lm ar i

in gh

ab ad

Ar ic

ha ka

ha

66 65

Learning from Historical Mega Floods :

Why 1998 flood is so prolonged than 1988 or other floods?

In addition to the high upstream flow and intense rainfall, elevated tides in the Bay of Bengal from the monsoon are the causes of 1998 flood. The elevated tides blocked outflow of the swollen rivers into the Bay of Bengal. So, Flood retention time increased
SLR will also block the flood water outflow in the same manner, and flood water will be logged for prolonged period. Near future, a part of Bangladesh will act as a monsoon reservoir/ retention pond of the Bay of Bengal (?).

South West Region of Bangladesh: The most vulnarable to Climate Change

South West Region

Ganges Dependent Area

8000

2. Climate Change Impacts on Ganges Discharge

Ice Melting in Gangotri Glacier

Discharges of Ganges River in Hardinge Bridge Point

Distribution of Monthly Total Flow a year
45000

Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow During Monsoon

40000 35000 30000
Discharge

50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Month

1967 1992

Discharge

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000

Mar

0 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991
Year

Annual Mean of Monthly Flow

18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 Year 4000 3500 3000
Discharge

Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow during Dry Season

Discharge

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991
Year

The impact of ice melting in Glaceirs is not identifiable in Ganges river discharges till now.

Discharges of Gorai River in Railway Bridge Point

Distribution of Monthly Total Flow in a Year
250000 200000
Discharge

Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow During Monsoon

1965 1994

180000 160000 140000 120000

Discharge

150000 100000 50000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month

100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1964 1967 1970 1974 1977 1980
Year

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

Annual Mean of Monthly Flow

80000 70000 60000

Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow during Dry Season

25000 20000

Discharge

Discharge

50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1964 1967 1970 1974 1977 1980 Year 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995

15000 10000 5000 0 1964 1967 1970 1974 1977 1980 Year 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995

The impact of ice melting in Glaceirs is not identifiable in Ganges river discharges till 1996

3. Salinity Intrusion

Ganges Dependent Area

Major Salinity Intrusion in the Southwest Region

Mechanics of Salinity Intrusion

Monsoon

Dry Season
Salinity in the river water, ground water and in the soil has increased significantly Reduction of fresh water flow from Gorai River, Higher Back water effect due to SLR, Higher storm surges

South West Region

Salinity in southwest region

Gorai Rl. Bg.

Khulna

12 10 Salinity (ppt) 8 6
Gorai RB Discharge
8000
Bayof Bengal

12 10 8

4 2
Salinity-Khulna

6000

4000

4
2 0

1972

85 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 200086 87 88 89
0

Discharge(m3/s)

Salinity (ppt)

91 92 93

94 Increase in Salinity with time series in the South West

Apr 1994 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May 1995

95 9 4 Region

4. Climate Change impact on Rainfall in Khulna

Source: LGED-ADV, 2010 report, using IPCC ECHAM5-MPI-OM model (Jungclaus, 2006).
Climate change effect show an increase of extreme rainfall events by 2050 Not a large difference in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in 2003-2008 and 2020-2040 The chances of extreme rainfall events are considerably higher during the 2041-2060 period.

Flow (cumec)

5. Impact of Climate Change on Dependable River flow Estimated by analyzing Flow-duration curve at 6 locations around Khulna City (Source: LGED-ADB, 2010).

Impact of Climate Change on Dependable Flow

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Mollahat
Locations

84

80

77 base 2030 2050 48 44 45

Fultala

Impact of Climate Change on Salinity

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 15.9

Salinity (ppt)

Decrease in dependable river flows Increase Salinity Increase the duration of river salinity
2.5

base 2030 2050 13.9

14.8

5.4 3.2 3.6

Mollahat
Locations

Fultala

Increase of Maximum Salinity Level

Increase of Salinity (ppt)

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Haridashpur Mollahat Fultala Fultala

2030

2050

Daulatpur

Labanchura

6. Climate Change effect on Drainage Congestion in KCC (Source: WASA)

Present Scenario

2050 Scenario

Currently 22% of Khulna City is experiences harmful flooding for a 10 year return period event. These area increases to 34% for 2030 and to 54% for 2050 scenario if the drainage system remains the same.

Climate Change impact on Occurrence Cyclone

12 Number of occurance 10 Affected people in million 8 6 4 2 0 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 Year of Cyclone

Frequency of major cyclone and affected people (Source: BBS, 2007)

Coastal Area in Bangladesh

Among 19 coastal districts, 12 are directly exposed to the sea.

Since 1970, the no. of major cyclones striking Bangladesh is 26

Nos. of occurrences (and the no. of affected people) increased significantly since 1990

7 .Impacts on Sundarban (beautiful forest)

worlds largest contiguous mangrove ecosystem The flora contains at least 69 species A total of 425 species of wildlife, including 42 species of mammals 300 species of birds 35 reptiles, and 8 amphibian species (Rashid and Scott 1989). Sundarban were declared world heritage sites by UNESCO.

Tourist Attraction

Tourist Attraction

Tourist Attraction

Sundarban during low tide

Roofing material

Timber

Fishing

Dry Fish

Sundarban is crying !!
Top dying disease of SUNDARI tree Global warming and Sea-level rise

Climate Change Impact on Sundarban

R idg es o r lev ees

Destroy
Back-swamps or basins sundari

M udf lats (slo pe)

keora/baen

goran Gewa

M ain r iv er channel

hoda golpata nol khagra

hargoza

High-tide water level

Low-tide water level

Present

Future

Soil salinity is increasing and Salinity zone is shifting Sundari trees are destroyed and replaced by Keora and Gewa
Sunderban forest under different salinity zone (ppt); present situation

Loss of Ecosystem Food chain breaks down

Conclusion

SLR will continue to affect Coastal Bangladesh through permanent inundation, frequent damaging floods and cyclones, drainage congestion in city and polder area, storm surge inundation and increased salinity intrusion. As a result, wide range of impacts on socio-economic and natural systems is anticipated Global initiative to reduce carbon emission, as well as strategies and initiatives at the community and national level should be taken.

Thanks for Your Time and Attention