Climate Change

Environmental Management Bureau Department of Environment and Natural Resources www.emb.gov.ph

Outline of Presentation
Trends in Agriculture Introduction What is being observed? What is causing the events? What are the effects? What are the impacts? What are the International Responses What can we Do?

70s Green Revolution

HYVs High Inputs

Land Conversions Soil Degradations Climate Change Chemical Pollution Eroding Biodiversity Water Distribution

80s Productivity Decline

90s Alternative Agriculture

Soil Health Conservation Nutrient Cycling Less Use of Chemical Inputs Improved WUE Varietal Resistance to Pests & Stress Environments Others

Crop Rotation Minimum Tillage Alternative/Integrated Pest Mgt. Alternative/Integrated Nutrient Mgt. Alternative/Integrated Crop Mgt. Crop Improvement Water Management Others

Introduction
Did you know that

Global warming could lead to freakish weather patterns such as more intense rainfall events, stronger typhoons, and sudden snowstorms?

Introduction

Early springs, melting sea ice and rising sea levels have all been blamed on climate change?

What has been observed?

Recent reports from meteorologists and climate experts state that

Tokyo is snowless last winter, setting a record for its longest snowless winter. This was preceded by an extraordinary hot in January, 2007, the fourth highest on record, at 1.44F above normal.

What has been observed?

AP Photos/Mark Schiefelbein

In Missouri, the trees are topless as the weight of ice and freezing temperature snapped tree limbs.

What has been observed?

Also in New York and New Hampshire, freezing temperature has knocked out electricity to nearly 70,000 customers.

What has been observed?

Early February 2007, people lined up for scarce water when a heat wave hit the country.

What has been observed?

In Manila, the unusually cold temperature of 18.6C was observed this February but is now being replaced by warmer temperatures sooner than in previous records when February used to have a cool weather.

What has been observed?

In 2004, the death toll stood at 412, with 177 people missing, after typhoon Winnie triggered landslides and flash floods in Quezon. In February 2006, an estimated 1,500 to 2,500 people died after the village of Guinsaugon, Leyte was buried by mudflow. This mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped 459.2 millimeters of rain in only 3 days. As a consequence, we had floods and landslides causing destruction of trees and mangrove areas, loss of lives and property.

What has been observed?

In September 28, 2006, super typhoon Milenyo the strongest typhoon to hit Metro Manila in seven years, cut across Luzon, leaving at least 18 people dead and a Luzon-wide blackout.

These unusual changes climate and variability have been also manifested in the strong typhoons and torrential rains during the last rainy season.

What has been observed?

The countrys vulnerability is alarming considering it is archipelagic in nature, with a long coastline of 32,400 kilometers from which 70% of the countrys 1,500 municipalities derive income.

What has been observed?

This vulnerability is further compounded considering that an average of 20 tropical cyclones pass yearly through the Philippine area of responsibility. Last year, tropical cyclones were seen to have been stronger.

What has been observed?

The proposed Naga City Coliseum which is undergoing construction with its twisted steel beams after the typhoon

National Food Authority (NFA) warehouse in total wreckage, Balintawak, Naga City

When Super Typhoon Reming hit Bicol Region, specifically around the areas of Mayon Volcano, volcanic debris were washed down by heavy rains burying thousands of houses and killing thousands of people and animals, with hundreds left missing.

What has been observed?

Hope Christian School in Naga City was one of the heavily damaged private school campuses

Another public school building with its roof blown away, Naga City

Residential home in one the subdivisions in Naga City

School buildings, roads, bridges and agricultural lands were damaged. Since the region is mostly agricultural, many of the people lost their livelihood.

What has been observed?

Bullit Marquez/Associated Press. Residents wading through a flooded street in Manila, the Philippine capital, on Sunday after a deadly typhoon struck the countrys central and northern islands.

Joel Nito/AFP-Getty Images. Villagers cleaning up wreckage today in the eastern Philippine island of Catanduanes, after Typhoon Durian killed hundreds.

The country had experienced disastrous typhoons and landslides in the past which had certainly brought havoc on lives and property.

What is causing these events?

The unusual changes in climate and variability have all been pointed to global warming and to what has always been referred to as climate change.

What is causing these events?

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is a

change in climate which is attributed directly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

What is causing these events?

But to be able to understand global warming or climate change, it is best to know the concept of greenhouse effect.

What is causing these events?

www.eere.energy.gov

Greenhouse effect refers to the process by which the gases in the atmosphere near the surface of the earth traps the heat coming from the sun that is re-radiated by the earths surface and re-emit it downwards.

What is causing these events?

Global warming refers to the increase in the earths mean temperature due to the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect.

What is causing these events?

These gases are called greenhouse gases (GHGs) and include water vapor, clouds, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and halocarbons.

What is causing these events?

The GHGs are naturally occurring gases that are vital in regulating the Earths temperature levels that support all planetary life to the capacity of these gases to absorb energy from the sun and delay its eventual escape into space.

What is causing these events?

They act as a natural blanket around the earth, trapping heat much like a glass roof of a greenhouse. The concentration of gases fluctuates with the interaction of the plants, water and sunlight.

What is causing these events?

The GHGs are produced by natural processes such as the water cycle, growth and death of plants and animals, decaying of wood and other biodegradable materials and volcanic activities.

What is causing these events?

Specifically, Carbon dioxide (CO2) comes from volcanic eruptions, natural forest fires, evaporation from oceans, biomass respiration, decay of plant and animal matter.

What is causing these events?

Methane (NH4) is emitted from wetlands and oceans. Nitrous oxide (N2O) comes from oceans, tropical soils, wet and extra-tropical forests and dry savannas.

What is causing these events?

Source: http://landcareresearch.co.nz

Source: http://ac.uk

Without the greenhouse effect, the Earths average surface temperature would be some 30C colder or approximately -15C and possibly not warm enough to sustain life.

What is causing these events?

http://ldesign.com

Unfortunately, humans are affecting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by introducing new sources or by interfering with natural processes that destroy or remove GHGs.

What is causing these events?

Source: flickoff.org

By burning fossil fuels due to industrialization and to sustain our modern lifestyle, we increase their levels very fast. The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the stronger the greenhouse effect making it into enhanced greenhouse effect.

What is causing these events?

Source: flickoff.org

This is what is causing climate change. Climate change, therefore, is caused by both natural events and human (anthropogenic) activities. Scientist now agree that most of the global warming today have been caused by human activities.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

Basically, there are three main human sources of greenhouse gases. These are from energy generation and industrial processes, transportation and land-useagriculture and forestry.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

Human activities that lead to the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases include worldwide deforestation, increasing industrial activity, motor vehicle emission, waste management practices and intensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

Burning of fossil fuels like oil, coal, gas and others in transportation, manufacturing processes and industry among others, and land-use changes contribute to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

So are the greenhouse gases really increasing?

During the pre-industrial revolution, levels of Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million (ppm) by volume.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

By the end of 2005, levels had increased to 379 ppm. Carbon dioxide is the most prevalent GHG accounting for 60% of the enhanced greenhouse effect or global warming. It is produced by burning of oil, coal and natural gas, land use and land use change including steel, cement and lime production.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

Methane (NH4) concentration in the atmosphere had also increased from preindustrial value of 715 parts per billion by volume (ppb) to 1,774 ppb in 2005. Methane is the second most common GHG which is 21 times the potency of carbon dioxide and is responsible for 20% of the enhanced greenhouse effect.

The GHGs/ The Human-based of GHGs

The process of decomposition in flooded rice fields causes the emission of methane into the atmosphere. Likewise, wastes from dairy production and waste management systems like landfills, and leaks from coal mining and natural gas production increase the levels of methane.

The GHGs/ The Anthropogenic Sources of GHGs

Nitrous oxide (N20) concentration in the atmosphere has increased from a preindustrial value of 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005. It is responsible for 20% of the enhanced greenhouse effect produced from intensive agriculture including cultivated soils and nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide use, biomass burning, combustion processes in vehicles, acid production processes.

The GHGs/ The Anthropogenic Sources of GHGs

There are other three (3) man-made GHGs which were initially intended to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to prevent further depletion of the ozone layer. However, they were found to be harmful greenhouse gases. These are Hyrdrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and Perfluororocarbons (PFCs) and Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). HFCs and PFCs are long-lived and potent and are used as refrigerants, coolants, foamblowing agents and solvents. SF6 are also long-lived and are used in electric insulators, heat conductors and freezing agents.

Effects of Global Warming

What causes sea level rise? Sea level rise will occur mostly as a result of the thermal expansion of warming ocean waters, the influx of freshwater from melting glaciers and ice, and vertical movements of the land itself.

Effects of Global Warming

Are there projections for further warming?

Yes, there are projected increases from 1.1C to 6.4C during the 21st century. The increase that will be realized by 2100 will depend on the population growth, amount and manner of developments, adoption of environmentally clean technologies, and measures/strategies to be put in place by the global community.

Effects of Global Warming

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale? In the Philippines, there are already trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.

Effects of Global Warming

Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent.

Effects of Global Warming

A substantial amount of corals reefs in the country have been found to have been affected by bleaching during events of warmer sea surface temperatures.

Effects of Global Warming

Bleaching of the coral reefs is associated with the loss of symbiotic algae and/or their pigments, and the death of the corals if the warming of the sea surface temperatures are prolonged.

Impacts of Climate Change

Having realized and currently experiencing the effects of global warming or climate change, it is inevitable that these effects will also create numerous impacts. Some are beneficial, like the fertilization effect of increased concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) seem to cause improved harvests and the warmer temperatures in cold countries which will lead to less death among the very young and the elderly. But largely for developing countries, adverse impacts will certainly affect the major sectors of the country.

Impacts of Climate Change

Agriculture and food security Added heat stress, shifting monsoons, drier soils and water shortages as a result of higher temperatures will affect livestock and crop production patterns with expanded range of weeds, insects and diseases which may reduce global food supplies and contribute to higher food prices.

Impacts of Climate Change

Agriculture and food security Rice production will largely be affected because of changes in temperature and rainfall. For every 1C increase in temperature, rice yields will decrease by 0.6 tons per hectare (IRRI) For every 75 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 concentration, rice yields will increase by 0.5 tons per hectare (IRRI), but could be irrigated by warmer temperatures. Changes in soil quality, occurrence of weed infestation and diseases

Impacts of Climate Change

Agriculture and food security

Competition for water will increase the pressure on riceland and favor adoption of cropping systems or practices that will consume less irrigation water Global yield from marine fisheries may be negatively affected by upsets in established reproductive patterns, migration routes and ecosystems relationships.

Impacts of Climate Change

Health

Increase in health problems and deaths due to greater frequency and severity of heat waves and other extreme weather events Will largely affect those suffering from respiratory and cardiovascular disorders as they have lesser coping capacity

Impacts of Climate Change

Health

Source:newyorktimes

Potential impacts on health due to sea level rise Death and injury due to flooding Reduced availability of freshwater due to saltwater intrusion

Impacts of Climate Change

Health
Contamination of water supply through pollutants from submerged waste dumps Change in the distribution of diseasespreading insects Effect on nutrition due to a loss in agricultural land and changes in fish catch Health impacts associated with population displacement

Impacts of Climate Change

Forests and Wildlife

Ecosystems sustain the earths entire storehouse of species and genetic diversity. Plants and animals are very sensitive to changes in climate hence, the most affected are those ecosystems in the higher latitudes, the tundra forests. Polar regions will feel the impact of warming more than others.

Impacts of Climate Change

Forests and Wildlife

Species migration; shift in feeding point and disruption in flight patterns for migratory birds. Extinction of some mountain plants and animals

Impacts of Climate Change

Coastal and marine ecosystem Climate change will alter ocean circulation and wave patterns, affecting biological productivity, nutrient availability and marine ecological structure and functions. Sea level rise will greatly affect coastal areas through inundation and erosion, increased flooding, and salt-water intrusion, and may even cause extreme events like high tides, storm surges and tsunamis, thereby affecting coastal agriculture, tourism, freshwater resources, fisheries and aquaculture, human settlements and health.

Impacts of Climate Change

Coastal and marine ecosystem

Corals are known as the tropical forests of the oceans and sustain diverse life forms. As ocean waters in the tropics become warmer, corals reefs will be damaged since corals are very sensitive to changes in water temperature, which causes coral bleaching.

Impacts of Climate Change

Coastal and marine ecosystem

Zooplanktons, small organisms that float in the sea surface are declining in numbers, reducing the number of fish and sea birds that feed on these organisms.

Impacts of Climate Change

Water Resources Climate change will influence the hydrological cycle, changing evaporation, precipitation and runoff patterns which could affect water resources. Saline intrusion will reduce quality and quantity of freshwater supplies.

International Reponses to CC
IPCC established in 1988 by UNEP to assess the state of knowledge on the various aspects of climate change including science, environmental and socio-economic impacts and response strategies. It has released reports as basis of policies of governments: 1st Assessment Report 1990 2nd Assessment Report 1995 3rd Assessment Report 2001 4th Assessment Report 2007

United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCC)

Established in 1992 during the UN Convention of Environment and Development (UNCED) to become the foundation of global efforts to avert global warming, with 185 members. The convention commits countries to: * limit their emission of GHG * gather relevant information * develop strategies for adaptation and * cooperate in research and technology It requires developed countries to lower their emissions to 1990 level.

Kyoto Protocol 1997

Provides for stronger action to mitigate Climate Change by * requiring developed countries to accept legally binding agreements to jointly reduce by the year 2008-2012 their collective GHG emissions by at least 5% of 1990 level. * Clean development mechanisms (CDM) * the emissions trading regime * joint implementation scheme

We all want to live in a beautiful world.

Dont We?

All living things need oxygen. Without clean air, survival is impossible.

What then can we do? let us make a difference. . . let us do our share.

We can make a difference . . .

Read and share what we have learned about climate change Save electricity turn off lights and electric appliance when not in use use more energy efficient electric appliances use compact flourescent bulbs that last 4 times longer and use just 1/4 of the electricity use sodium vapor lights for street lighting

We can make a difference. . .

Take the bus, ride a bike or walk Plant trees in your neighborhood and look after them. Trees absorb carbon dioxide from the air.

Recycle cans, plastic bags and newspapers. When you recycle, you help save natural resources. Generate as because trash quantities of carbon dioxide little trash as possible, in landfill sites emit large methane, and if burned, is released.

We can make a difference. . .

Start saving every drop of the drinking water in our taps right now. An average person today uses 18 times more water than a person did in the medieval times.

We can make a difference. . . Reuse and recycle paper. This is something that we all can do easily and it works. Moreover, making recycled paper instead of cutting down trees to make new papers uses 64% energy and 58% less water.

We can make a difference. . .

Recycling glass/bottles, etc. saves natural resources like sand, soda ash and limestone
Creates less pollution than producing jars and bottles.

The energy saved by recycling one glass of bottle could power

A 100 watt light bulb for almost an hour A computer for 25 minutes and A colour TV for 20 minutes

Rememberthe length of time the following wastes decomposes..

Paper Orange Peel Milk Cartoon Cigarette Butt Disposable Diapers Tin Can Beer Can Plastic Bag Styrofoam 2 to 5 months 6 months 5 years 10 to 20 years 75 years 100 years 200-500 years 100 to 1000 yrs Never

We can make a difference. . .

Let us act now, or the true cost of our failure will be borne by succeeding generations starting with YOU /

ME / US !!!

We can make a difference. . .

Let us all join the fight against CLIMATE CHANGE !!! Let us do our share!
Protecting the ENVIRONMENT and addressing CLIMATE CHANGE in unison creates many win-win opportunities and is crucial for SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT !!!

Let us give our Earth a chance. Its the only one we have!!!!