A Nine Stage Model of Conflict Escalation

by F.Glasl

Discomfort

Incidents

Misunderstandings

Tension

Crisis

Hardening Debates Polemics

Actions not words

Images and coalitions

Loss of Face Strategies of Threat Limited Destructive Blows

Fragmentation of the enemy

Together into the abyss

A stage model of conflict escalation

9 stages of conflict escalation

1. "Hardening" 2. "Debates and polemics" 3. "Actions, not words" 4. "Images and coalitions"

5. "Loss of face"
6. "Strategies of threats" 7. "Limited destructive blows"

8. "Fragmentation of the enemy"

9. "Together into the abyss"
A stage model of conflict escalation

1. "Hardening"
Positions sometimes harden and clash

Occasional glitches and spam

Awareness of the tensions that causes spasm Conviction that tensions can be resolved through talking Parties and fractions not yet entrenched Cooperation still stronger than competitiveness

A stage model of conflict escalation

2. "Debates and polemics"

Polarization of thinking, feeling, will Either/or thinking Tactics: pretend to argue rationally Verbal violence Speeches to an audience: scoring points via third parties Temporary grouping form around certain stances

Discrepancy overtone-undertone
Fighting for dominance Oscillation between co-operation and competitiveness
A stage model of conflict escalation

3. "Actions, not words"

Talking no longer helps so actions are called for Discrepancy between verbal and non-verbal behaviour non verbal dominates Danger of misinterpreting actions

Pessimistic expectations rooted in suspicion accelerate the conflict

Group Skin pressure for conformity

Empathy is lost
Competitiveness stronger than cooperation
A stage model of conflict escalation

4. Images and Coalitions

Stereotypical Images, cliches in relation to knowledge and abilities; image campaigns and rumours Parties manoeuvre each other into negative roles and fight these roles Wooing of supporters; weakness leads to a need for support Self-fulfilling prophecy through fixation on images Covert provocation that is difficult to prove, snide remarks, irritation Double bind through paradoxical orders
A stage model of conflict escalation

5. Loss of face
Public and direct personal attacks moral integrity is lost
Staging of unmasked activities as a ritual: exposure leads to disillusionment Image: angel devil Loss of external perceptiveness, isolation

Ideology, values, principals !

Striving for rehabilitation
A stage model of conflict escalation

6.Strategies of Threat
Spiral of threats and counter-threats

Triangle of threats: Correlation demand/punishment/potential for punishment

Locking in oneself and each other (tripwires)

Manoeuvring oneself into compulsion to act; loss of initiative

Stress increased through ultimatums and counter-ultimatums; Acceleration

A stage model of conflict escalation

7. Limited destructive blows

Thinking only revolves around inanimate objects
Human qualities no longer valid

Limited destruction as appropriate response

Reversal of values and virtues into their opposites: relatively small damage is considered a benefit

A stage model of conflict escalation

8. Fragmentation of the enemy

Bringing about total breakdown of the enemy system
Destroying vital system factors to make the system unmanageable Isolating front fighters from their hinterland Complete destruction: Body, Soul and Spirit

A stage model of conflict escalation

9. Together into the abyss

No way back
Total confrontation Destruction of the enemy even at the price of self-destruction Enjoyment of self-destruction provided the enemy will not survive !

Willingness to cause severe damage to the environment or successors through ones own downfall
A stage model of conflict escalation