Rainfall Analysis

Types of rainfall Description of rainfall

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Measurement of rainfall
Consistency check of rainfall data Estimation of missing rainfall data Rainfall characteristics in arid and semi-arid regions Variability of annual rainfall Average rainfall over an area Frequency analysis

Types of Rainfall
Convective: caused by the rising
of warm, lighter air in colder, denser surroundings. Occurs mostly in the tropics
Convective

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Orographic: results from lifting of air over mountain

barriers. The greatest amount of rain falls on the windward side

Cyclonic: results from the lifting

of air converging into a low pressure area, or cyclone

Wind Orographic

Description of Rainfall
Intensity: the quantity of rain falling in a given time (cm/hr, mm/hr, etc.). Intensity

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Duration: the period of time during which rain falls (hr, minutes, etc.).
Frequency: the expectation that a given depth of rainfall will fall in a given time (once in three years, once in five years, etc.). Magnitude: the total amount of rain falling at a point (mm) daily, monthly, annually, etc.

Rainfall

Duration

Frequency

Measurement of Rainfall
Raingauge is an instrument used for measuring the vertical depth of water from precipitation at a point.
The vertical depth of water that would accumulate on a level surface if the rainfall remains where it fell, is taken as rainfall measurement. Types of Raingauges Non-recording gauges

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Vertical depth

Collect rainfall
Non recording gauge Source: Linsley 1982

Collected rainfall is measured later on by measuring tube or stick

Rainfall Measurement
Recording gauges

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Receiver

give directly the rainfall reading

Funnel

Tipping-bucket

record continuously

Tipping bucket Reservoir

Types of Recording gauges

Receiver Measuring tube

Tipping-bucket gauge Weighing-type gauge Floating type

Outer case

Bucket
Weighing mechanism

Weighing-type
Revolving drum with chart

Pen arm Source: Linsley 1982

Rainfall characteristics in Semi-Arid and Arid Regions

Rainfall in semi-arid and arid regions

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

results largely from convective clouds

is of short duration
is relatively high in intensity

of limited areal extent & has large variability

Variability of Annual Rainfall

General rule: The smaller the average annual rainfall, the higher is its variability.

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

High

Low
Average Annual Rainfall

Annual Rainfall Variability

Low

High

Variability of Annual Rainfall

Annual Rainfall as Percentage of the Mean for Mekele, Ethiopia
250,0

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Percentage of Mean

200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0

Mean Annual
Rainfall = 452 mm/a Altitude = 2212m Latitude = 13.30 N

Longitude = 39.29 E

Years

Consistency Check of Rainfall Data

Problems with rainfall data occur due to

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

change from rain gauge type A to rain gauge type B change in the immediate environment surrounding the gauge movement of measuring site, etc. A simple approach: Double Mass Curve

Example: Consistency check of gauge X

Gauge X is the suspect gauge.

Gauges 1, 2 , 3 are reference gauges, known to be functioning correctly. They are located in the same area as gauge X.

Consistency Check of Rainfall Data

Annual rainfall totals (mm) Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Gauge X Gauge1 Gauge 2 Gauge 3 1020 980 995 1005 600 550 575 1020 960 990 1000 1002 1080 1150 1030 980 970 1040 1004 1095 1100 1040 970 980 1020 1003 1110 1050 Cumulative rainfall (mm) Mean Gauge Gauge X Gauges 1, 2, 3 1,2,3 1030 1020 1030 970 2000 2000 980 2995 2980 1020 4000 4000 1003 4600 5003 1095 5150 6098 1100 5725 7198

Rainfall analysis Hydrology

Step 1: compute cumulative rainfall for suspect gauge X compute mean annual rainfall totals & cumulate average for gauges 1, 2, 3
Double mass curve for tabulated data

Unit 2+ 3

7000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Station X

Step 2: plot cumulative rainfall for suspect gauge X versus cumulative rainfall for reference gauges 1, 2, 3 attempt to construct a straight a line through the data points

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000

Station move 1991 Correction factor: k = 1.0 / 0.54 = 1.85

y = 0.54 x

Slope B

Slope A
y = 1.00 x

1000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Stations 1, 2, 3

Consistency Check of Rainfall Data

Annual rainfall totals (mm)
Year Gauge X Gauge 1 Gauge 2 Gauge 3 Mean Gauge 1, 2, 3

Rainfall analysis

Cumulative rainfall (mm) Gauge X 1020 2000 2995 4000 5110 6128 7191 Gauges 1, 2, 3 1030 2000 2980 4000 5003 6098 7198

Step 3:
check consistency of suspect gauge X with gauges 1, 2, 3

Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

1020 980 995 1005 1110 1018 1064

1020 960 990 1000 1002 1080 1150

1030 980 970 1040 1004 1095 1100

1040 970 980 1020 1003 1110 1050

1030 970 980 1020 1003 1095 1100

if consistent, straight line with a slope 1 OK

Double mass curve for corrected data

8000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Station X

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 2000 4000

y = 1.00 x

if change in slope, problems with rainfall data calculate correction factor k

k = slope A / slope B
Step 4: adjust erroneous data for gauge X by the correction factor k Example: corrected annual rainfall total for gauge X
6000 8000
Cumulative rainfall (mm) - Stations 1, 2, 3

Year 1992: 600 * 1.85 = 1110 mm

Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data

Methods of Estimation of Missing Data
Arithmetic Average Method Px = 1/n (P1 + P2 + ... +Pn) Px = missing rainfall data at station x
NO Is Diff. Is Diff < < 10% 10% ?
Compute % differences Diff. =|Ni-Nx|/Nx x 100

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Pi = rainfall data at the neighbouring station i

n = number of neighbouring raingauges Normal Ratio Method Px = 1/n (Nx/N1 x P1 + Nx/N2 x P2 +. . .+ Nx/Nn x Pn)

Normal Ratio

Px = missing rainfall data at station x

Ni= normal annual rainfall at station i n= number of neighbouring raingauges

YES Arithmetic Average

Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data

Example : Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data, Stations from Ethiopia
Station Name Hawzien Ilala Adigrat Quiha Monthly data, July, 1980 (mm) 195.7 186.5 243.3 ? Normal annual Rainfall (mm) 446 452 512 472 % Difference 5.5 4.2 8.5 _

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

5.5 Computed

% Diff < 10 Arithmetic Average Px = 1/3 (195.7 + 186.5 + 243.3) Px = 208.5mm

Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data

Station Id. 1 2 3 4 Rainfall at one Normal annual % Difference Storm event (mm) Rainfall 107 89 122 ? 1120 935 1200 978 14.5 4.4 22.7 -

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Example : Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data, Data from India

% Difference > 10 Px = 95.3mm

Normal Ratio method

Px = 1/3 (978/1120 x 107 + 978/935 x 89 + 978/1200 x 122)

Average Rainfall over an Area

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

P1

P3

P5
Average Rainfall

P2

P4 P6

Representative value for one area Used to estimate stream flow Used to compute peak discharge, etc.

Average Rainfall over an Area

1. Arithmetic Mean Method Methods of Computation:

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Pav = 1/n (P1 + P2 + . . . + Pn)

Pav = Average rainfall over the area Pi = Rainfall at different gauges n = Number of gauges in the area

Arithmetic Mean Method Thiessen Method Isohyetal Method

The method is used for: Flat areas Uniformly distributed gauges over the area Rain collected at different stations not varying

widely from the mean

Average Rainfall over an Area

2. Thiessen Method

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

handles non uniformly distributed gauges makes use of weighing factors for each gauge
Step 1: Draw the area concerned to a suitable scale, showing its boundary, locations of the raingauges in the area and outside but close to the boundary

Thiessen Method : Steps

P1 P2

P4 P3

P5

P6 P7

Average Rainfall over an Area

Thiessen Method : Steps
P1 P2

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

P4 P3

P5

P6 P7

Step 2: Join location of the raingauges to form a network of triangles

Average Rainfall over an Area

Thiessen Method : Steps

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

P1 P2

P4 P3

P5

P6 P7

Step 3: Draw perpendicular bisectors to the triangle sides. These perpendicular bisectors form polygons around the stations.

Average Rainfall over an Area

Thiessen Method : Steps
P1 A1 A2 P2 A4 A3 P3 A6 P6 A7

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Step 4: Delineate the formed polygons and measure their areas using a planimeter or by converting them into smaller regular geometric shapes (i.e. triangles, squares, rectangles, etc.)
P5

P4
A5

Step 5: Compute the average rainfall using the following formula

P7

Pav =

P1xA1 + P2 xA2 +... + PnxAn A1 + A2 + .... + An

Average Rainfall over an Area

Thiessen Method : Example
Observed Rainfall(mm), Pi 10 15 20 17 25 40 12 Total Polygon Area (Sq. Km), Ai 25 125 80 90 120 115 130 685 Pi x Ai (Col 1 x Col 2) 250 1875 1600 1530 3000 4600 1560 14415

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

P1 A1 P2 A2 P2 A4 A3 P3

P4 P4
A5 P3 A6 P6 P6 A7

P5 P5

P7

P1xA1 + P2 xA2 +... + PnxA Pav = A1 + A2 + .... + An =

14415 = 21.04 mm 685

Average Rainfall over an Area

3. Isohyetal Method Isohyet is a line joining points of equal rainfall magnitude
0 1 0 0 4
11

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

0 0

Isohyetes

45

16 11 11
9

19 45

62
27 65

Most accurate method

Incorporates the orographic effect

All figures are in mm Monthly isohyetal map (sample)

Average Rainfall over an Area

Isohyetal Method: Steps

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Step 1: Draw the area under study to scale and mark rain gauges on it. Put at each of the raingauge location the recorded values of rainfall at the station, for the period within which the average is required to be determined.

Step 2: Draw the isohyetes of various values by considering the point rainfall data as guidelines and interpolating between them. Also, incorporate the knowledge of orographic effects.

Average Rainfall over an Area

Isohyetal Method: Steps Step 3: Determine the area between each pair of the isohyet lines, either by a planimeter or by converting the areas into smaller regular geometric shapes. Step 4: Calculate the average rainfall using the following formula: Pav =

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

A1 (P1 + P2)/2 + A2 (P2 + P3)/2 + . . . + An-1(Pn-1 + Pn)/2 (A1 + A2 + . . . + An)

Pi = Value of Isohyet lines

Ai = Area between pair of isohyet lines.

Average Rainfall over an Area

Isohyetal Method: Example
Calculate the average rainfall over the area given in the figure using Isohyetal method.

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Pav = 103, 875.69/1,602.59 = 64.82mm

Frequency Analysis

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Design Rainfall:
the total amount of rain during the cropping season at which or above which the catchment area will provide sufficient runoff to satisfy the crop water requirements.

Moisture stress in plants

Damage to structures
Design Rainfall Actual Rainfall

Frequency Analysis

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Probability of exceedance (P): the

probability in which a certain event (rainfall) is equalled or exceeded

Exceedance Probability (P), % 100 80

Return Period (Tr) Years 1 1.25 1.33 1.5 100

Rainfall equalled or exceeded Every Year Once in 1.25 years (4 times in 5 years) Once in 1.33 years (3 times in 4 years) Once in 1.5 years (2 times in 3 years) Once in 100 years

Return period (recurrence interval),

Tr: the average interval in years within which a given event will be equalled or exceeded

75 67 1

Frequency Analysis
Empirical Method: Steps
Step 1: Obtain annual rainfall totals for the cropping season from the area of concern Step 2: Arrange the rainfall data in the descending order of magnitude Step 3: Give ranks (m) to each ordered data. Rank of 1 for the largest value and n for the smallest value, where n is the number of data points Step 4: Determine the recurrence interval Tr of each rainfall value using formula:

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Rank: 1

3 ... n

Tr = (n + 0.25) / (m - 0.375)

n = Number of data m = Rank

Frequency Analysis
Steps
Step 5: Compute the probability of exceedance P, P = 1/Tr = (m - 0.375) / (n + 0.25) Step 6: Plot the value of P or Tr against the corresponding magnitude of rainfall data, on probability paper, & fit a line for the plotted data Step 7: To determine the design rainfall look the corresponding value of rainfall for the exceedance probability used. For WH usually 67% is used.

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

Frequency Analysis
Example : Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

The annual rainfall totals from a station, Mogadishu (Somalia), for a period of 32 years are given. Compute the annual rainfall total corresponding to 67 % & 33% probabilities of exceedance.
Annual Rainfall at Mogadishu, Somalia
Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall Year Rainfall 1957 484 1965 498 1973 371 1981 563 1958 529 1966 395 1974 255 1982 526 1959 302 1967 890 1975 411 1983 273 1960 403 1968 680 1976 339 1984 270 1961 960 1969 317 1977 660 1985 423 1962 453 1970 300 1978 216 1986 251 1963 633 1971 271 1979 594 1987 533 1964 489 1972 655 1980 544 1988 531

All Rainfall figures are in mm

Source: Critchley & Siegert 1991

Frequency Analysis
Example : Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall Steps: 1. arrange the annual rainfall values in decreasing order

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

2. give rank, 1 to the highest and 32 for the lowest rainfall figure 3. compute the probability, p , with the given formula
Year 1961 1967 1968 1977 1972 1963 1979 1981 1980 1987 1988 R mm 960 890 680 660 655 633 594 563 544 533 531 m 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 P% 1.9 5.0 8.1 11.2 14.3 17.4 20.5 23.6 26.7 29.8 32.9 Year 1958 1982 1965 1964 1957 1962 1985 1975 1960 1966 1973 R mm 529 526 498 489 484 453 423 411 403 395 371 m 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 P% 36.0 39.1 42.2 45.3 48.4 51.6 54.7 57.8 60.9 64.0 67.1 Year 1976 1969 1959 1970 1983 1971 1984 1974 1986 1978 R mm 339 317 302 300 273 271 270 255 251 216 m 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 P% 70.2 73.3 76.4 79.5 82.6 85.7 88.8 91.1 95.0 98.1

Frequency Analysis
Example : Frequency Analysis of Annual Rainfall Steps:

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

plot p against R on a probability paper fit the plotted points a line

p = 67%
R = 371mm Tr = 100 = 100 =1.5 years p 67

p = 33% Tr = 3 years R = 531mm

Summary

Rainfall analysis Hydrology Unit 2+ 3

A rainfall can be described by its intensity, duration and frequency Rainfall is measured either by recording or non-recording gauges Rainfall in (semi-)arid areas is mostly of short duration and high intensity

The annual variability of rainfall is high in semi-arid and arid areas

The missing rainfall data must be filled before any analysis The average rainfall over an area gives an overall idea about the catchment Frequency analysis helps to choose a certain rainfall amount at certain probability of exceedance