An efficient approach for

short term load forecasting

using artificial neural networks
Nahi Kandil, Rene′ Wamkeue ,Maarouf Saad, Semaan Georges
Electrical Power and Energy Systems 28 (2006) 525–530

2006/11/22
Liyao,Hou

Manufacturing System Engineering

 Contents

 Introduction
 Neural network input variables
 The ANN used: type and structure
 ANN training: data and algorithm
 Results
 Forecasting for a local load
 Conclusion

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 Introduction

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 Introduction

 Contribution
 Applied artificial neural networks (ANN) for short term load
forecasting in the power system
 Demonstrate ANN capabilities in load forecasting without using
load history as an input.
 Keywords:
 Power systems; Load forecasting; Artificial neural networks
 Backgrounds:
 Short term load forecasting is
important to power systems:
• Cost savings and secure operational conditions
• Optimize energy prices

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 Introduction

 Literature review
 ANNs have been applied to many power system analysis and control.
• Load forecasting, static and dynamic security assessment,
• dynamic load modeling, alarm processing and fault diagnosis
 The authors demonstrated ANN capabilities in short term load
forecasting using real load and weather data from the Hydro-Quebec
databases(1999)
 Three types of variables were used as inputs to the neural network:
• (a) hour and day indicators
• (b) weather related inputs
• (c) historical loads

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 Introduction

 Motivation
 Generally, load history is not available, so estimated values of this
load are used instead.
 However, a small error in estimated values may grow to a serious
problem since it is fed back as an input to the load forecasting
procedure.

Estimation without history data is needed!

 In this paper, we demonstrate ANN capabilities in load forecasting

without using load history as an input.
 Only temperature is used
 Results show that other weather variables
• Like sky condition (cloud cover) and wind velocity have no serious effect and may
not be considered in the load forecasting procedure.

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 Neural network input variables

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 Neural network input variables

 Input variables:
 Statistical analysis helps determine input variables
 General input variables :
• (a) hour and day indicators
• (b) weather related inputs
• (c) historical loads.

 Hour indicator H(i)

 Load changes during the day from one hour to another.
 Load example for a typical winter day

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 Neural network input variables

 Day indicator D(i)

 Load changes from one day to another during the week.
 Average daily load for a typical winter week.

 Power consumption in the weekends is less than week days.

 So a day indicator D(n) (n=1,2..7) Is assistance in load forecasting;
• i.e.,D(1) = 1, D(2) = 2, . . . D(7) = 7.

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 Neural network input variables

 Weather variables
 Correlation matrix for all the variables
• L (load), T (temperature),W (wind velocity) and C (cloud cover).

 Temperature is the most important weather variable.

 Strong correlation between
Strong temperature
correlation between and load.
Has very small effect on
temperature the load. However, but no
 Effect of weather variables onand
the load
load: (a) temperature, (b) wind velocity
relationship can be seen

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 Neural network input variables

 Weather variables
 Effect of weather variables on cloud cover load.
Relationship between cloud
cover and the load

 Result analysis
 Only the temperature is considered in this application.
 Other weather variables (wind velocity and cloud cover) are neglected,

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 The ANN used: type and structure

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 The ANN used: type and structure

 Multi-layered perception (MLP)

 Used as a primary test in this application.
 The used ANN consists of
• one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer.
 In output layer, only one neuron is needed,
 L(k), the anticipated load at hour k,
 Inputs to the ANN are:
• H(k) hour indicator
• D(k) day indicator
• T(k) estimated temperature at hour k
• T(k 1) estimated temperature at hour k 1
• T(k 2) estimated temperature at hour k 2

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 The ANN used: type and structure

 ANN structure
 ANN has 32 inputs,
 65 hidden neurons
 1 neuron in the output layer
 Inputs are
• a day indicator,
• an hour indicator,
• and the temperature
 The ANN output is
• forecasted total load at hour k.

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 ANN training: data and algorithm

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 ANN training: data and algorithm

 Training data
 Error back propagation algorithm, is used to train the layered
perception-type ANN.
 1994 data is divided into several windows
• ½ (non-consecutive ones) is used for training
• ½ is used for testing the ANN.
 Training was done for all the data widows at the same time;
 Objective
• Adjust the ANN weights to minimize the error between desired and ANN outputs.

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 ANN training: data and algorithm

 Training algorithm
Taylor expansion of the
error as weight function

Considering only the

first derivative and by
dropping higher terms

Objective is to
eliminate this error
(to make it zero)

Multiplying both
sides of Eq. (5) by J and
solving for DW gives (6).
 W -- vector containing all the weights in the network,
 J -- Jacobian vector of derivatives of the error to each weight.
 l is a scalar and [I] is the unity matrix

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 Results

 ANN performance
 ANN output compared to the actual load and to the Hydro-Quebec
estimation of this load.

 ANN has good performance

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 Forecasting for a local load

 ANN performance in local load

 Evaluation of the ANN performance where the ANN forecasting output

 ANN is also efficient for local load forecasting.

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 Conclusion

 Contribution
 Using ANNs for short term load forecasting for the Hydro-Quebec
system
 Demonstrate ANN capabilities in load forecasting without using load
history as an input.
 Limitation
 The possibility for better results exists and can be achieved by using:
• (1) advanced types of ANN
• (2) better selection of input variables
• (3) better ANN architecture
• (4) better selection of the training set

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