Chapter 6 Continuous Probability Distributions

Uniform Probability Distribution Normal Probability Distribution Exponential Probability Distribution

Uniform Normal
x x x f (x) Exponential

f (x)

f (x)

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Slide 1

Continuous Probability Distributions

The probability of the random variable assuming a value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is defined to be the area under the graph of the probability density function between x1 and x2.
Uniform
f (x) f (x) Exponential

f (x)

Normal
x

x1 x2

x x1 x2 x

x1 x x 12 x2

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Slide 2

Uniform Probability Distribution

The uniform probability density function is:

f (x) = 1/(b a) for a < x < b =0 elsewhere

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume b = largest value the variable can assume

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Slide 3

Uniform Probability Distribution

Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2

Variance of x Var(x) = (b - a)2/12

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Slide 4

Uniform Probability Distribution

Example: Slater's Buffet Slater customers are charged for the amount of salad they take. Sampling suggests that the amount of salad taken is uniformly distributed between 5 ounces and 15 ounces.

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Slide 5

Uniform Probability Distribution

Uniform Probability Distribution for Salad Plate Filling Weight f(x)

1/10 x

5 10 15 Salad Weight (oz.)

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Slide 6

Uniform Probability Distribution

Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15 =0 elsewhere where: x = salad plate filling weight

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Slide 7

Uniform Probability Distribution

Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2 = (5 + 15)/2 = 10

Variance of x Var(x) = (b - a)2/12 = (15 5)2/12 = 8.33

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Slide 8

Uniform Probability Distribution

What is the probability that a customer will take between 12 and 15 ounces of salad? f(x) P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3 1/10 x

5 10 12 15 Salad Weight (oz.)

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Slide 9

Normal Probability Distribution

Normal Probability Density Function

1 ( x )2 /2 2 f (x) e 2
where:

= mean = standard deviation = 3.14159

e = 2.71828

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Slide 10

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by areas under the curve. The total area under the curve is 1. (.50 to the left of the mean and .50 to the right)

.5

.5 x

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Slide 11

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The mean can be any numerical value: negative, zero, or positive.

x
-10 0 20

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Slide 12

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
The standard deviation determines the width of the curve: larger values result in wider, flatter curves.

= 15

= 25
x
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Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics
99.7% 95% 68%

3 1 2

+ 3 + 1 + 2

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Slide 14

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The letter z is used to designate the standard normal random variable.
1

z
0

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Slide 15

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

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Slide 16

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep Zone

Cumulative Probability Table for the Standard Normal Distribution

z . .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 . .00 . .01 . .02 . .03 . .04 . .05 . .06 . .07 . .08 .

5w-20 Motor Oil

.09 .

.6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389 . . . . . . . . . .

P(z < .83)

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Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep Zone
5w-20 Motor Oil

Solving for the 95th percentile

Area = .9500
Area = .0500

z.05

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Slide 18

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep Zone

Solving for the 95th percentile Step 1: Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .05 in the right tail of the standard normal distribution.
z . .00 . .01 . .02 . .03 . .04 . .05 . .06 . .07 . .08 .

5w-20 Motor Oil

.09 .

1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441 1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545 1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633 1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 .9693 .9699 .9706 1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 .9756 .9761 .9767 . . . . . . . . . . .

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Slide 19

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep Zone

Solving for the 95th percentile (of x)

5w-20 Motor Oil

Step 2: Convert z.05 to the corresponding value of x.

x = + z.05 = + (1.645)

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Slide 20

Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

When the number of trials, n, becomes large,

evaluating the binomial probability function by hand or with a calculator is difficult

The normal probability distribution provides an

easy-to-use approximation of binomial probabilities where n > 20, np > 5, and n(1 - p) > 5.

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Slide 21

Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities

Set

= np

np(1 p)

Add and subtract 0.5 (a continuity correction factor) because a continuous distribution is being used to approximate a discrete distribution. For example, P(x = 10) is approximated by P(9.5 < x < 10.5).

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Slide 22

Exponential Probability Distribution

Density Function

f ( x)

e x / for x > 0, > 0

where:

= mean
e = 2.71828

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Slide 23

Exponential Probability Distribution

Cumulative Probabilities

P ( x x0 ) 1 e xo /
where: x0 = some specific value of x

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Slide 24

Exponential Probability Distribution

f(x) .4 .3 P(x < 2)

.2
.1 x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)

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Slide 25

Relationship between the Poisson and Exponential Distributions

The Poisson distribution provides an appropriate description of the number of occurrences per interval

The exponential distribution provides an appropriate description of the length of the interval between occurrences

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Slide 26

Chapter 6 Problem Solving Tips

Rules for Continuous Distributions
1)

P(Xa) = F(a) P(Xa) = 1 F(a)

2)

3)

P(aXb) = P(Xb) P(Xa) = F(b) F(a)

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Slide 27

End of Chapter 6

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