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=
=
n
X X
n
i
i
o
Standard deviation:
1
) (
1
2
=
=
n
X X
n
i
i
o
Coefficient of variation:
X
CV
o
=
Excel: Function AVERAGE()
Excel: Function STDEV()
Quick Review of Statistics
Zhi-Long Chen
32
(s, S) Policy
I
n
v
e
n
t
o
r
y
L
e
v
e
l
S
s
0
Lead
Time
Lead
Time
Inventory Position
Q
*
Use EOQ model to determine optimal order quantity
Q
*
=
Set S = Q* + s
2 KAVG
h
Where
K = setup (ordering) cost
AVG = mean demand rate
h = unit holding cost per unit time
SS
Zhi-Long Chen
33
More specifically.
Model with uncertain demand, constant lead time
L = constant lead time
AVG = mean demand rate
STD = stdev of demand rate
Assume: Demand rate follows Normal(AVG, STD
2
)
Reorder point: s = AVG L + z STD
L
Average demand
over lead time
Safety stock
Answer: Demand over lead time follows Normal(AVG L, STD
2
L)
Question: what is the distribution of demand over lead time?
Zhi-Long Chen
34
Risk Pooling Example
AVG STD SS s Q S
Average
Inventory
Warehouse 1 39.3 13.2 25.08 65 132 197 91
Warehouse 2 38.6 12.0 22.8 62 131 193 88
Centralized
Warehouse
77.9 20.7 39.35 118 186 304 132
Optimal inventory policies
Decentralized system:
total SS = 47.88
total avg. invent. = 179
L SS = z STD
s = AVG L + SS
Q = sqrt(2K AVG/h)
Safety Stock
Reorder Point
Order Quantity
Order-up-to-level S = s + Q
Average Inventory ~ SS + Q/2
Zhi-Long Chen
35
Risk Pooling: Important
Observations
Centralizing inventory control reduces both safety stock
and average inventory level for the same service level.
(This phenomenon is called risk pooling)
Root Cause: Demand Variability (i.e. STD)
Variability of aggregated demand is lower than total variability of
individual demands
SS = (z)(STD)(sqrt(L))
Avg inventory = SS + Q/2
Everything else being equal,
a system with a lower demand
variability requires a lower SS
& lower avg inventory
Question: Why variability of aggregated demand is lower than
total variability of individual demands ?
Zhi-Long Chen
36
Warehouse
Market 1
Market 2
d
1
+d
2
: (, o
2
)
Calculating demand variability of
centralized system
Warehouse 1
Warehouse 2
Market 1
Market 2
d
1
: (
1
, o
1
2
)
d
2
: (
2
, o
2
2
)
o
2
= o
1
2
+ o
2
2
+ 2o
1
o
2
,
where -1 s s 1
: correlation coefficient of d
1
, d
2
o
s o
1
+ o
2
Conclusions:
1. Stdev of aggregated demand is
less than the sum of stdev of individual
demands
2. If demands are independent or
negatively correlated, the std of
aggregated demand is much less
1. If d
1
, d
2
positively correlated, > 0
2. If d
1
, d
2
negatively correlated, < 0
=
1
+
2
o = ??
o
o
1
+o
2
1 0 -1
2
2
2
1
o o +
P.C. N.C. Ind.
Zhi-Long Chen
37
More Observations
In general, total safety stock & average inventory
both increase with the number of stocking locations
Total SS
(Avg. Inv.)
# of stocking locations
Zhi-Long Chen
38
Decentralized Centralized
Inbound transportation cost
(from factories to warehouses)
Facility/Labor cost
Outbound transportation cost
(from warehouses to retailers)
Inventory cost
Responsiveness to customers
Lower
Lower
Higher
Lower
Lower
Centralized vs. Decentralized
Zhi-Long Chen
39
Critical Points about Risk Pooling
Centralizing inventory reduces both safety stock and
average inventory in the system.
The benefits from risk pooling depend on the behavior of
demand from one market relative to the demand form
another (demand correlations).
The higher the coefficient of variation, the greater the
benefit obtained from centralized system.
Zhi-Long Chen
40
Push, Pull, Push-Pull
Strategy
Copyright 2003 D.
Simchi-Levi
Push Strategy
Production and distribution decision based on long
term forecasts
Take long time to react to the changing marketplace
Problems
- Inability to meet changing demand patterns
- Product obsolescence
- Excessive inventories for large safety stock
- Low service levels
Copyright 2003 D.
Simchi-Levi
Pull Strategy
Production and distribution based on demand driven
by fast information flow to transfer demand data
Coordinate with true customer demand rather than
forecast demand
Advantages
- Reduced lead times (better
anticipation and coordination)
- Decreased inventory levels at
retailers and manufacturers
- Decreased system variability
- Better response to changing
markets
disadvantages
- Harder to leverage economies
of scale (manufacturing and
transportation)
- Doesnt work in the case that
lead times are too long
David Simchi-Levi
Matching Supply Chain Strategies
with Products
Pull Push
Pull
Push
I
Computer
II
Furniture,
Automobile
IV
Books, CDs
III
Grocery
Demand
uncertainty
(C.V.)
Delivery cost
Unit price
L H
H
L
Economies of
Scale
David Simchi-Levi
Selecting the Best SC Strategy
Higher demand uncertainty suggests pull
High importance of economies of scale suggests
push
High uncertainty/ EOS not important such as the
computer industry implies pull
Low uncertainty/ EOS important such as groceries
implies push
Demand is stable
Transportation cost reduction is critical
Pull would not be appropriate here.
David Simchi-Levi
Selecting the Best SC Strategy
Low uncertainty but low value of economies of scale
(high volume books and cds)
Either push strategies or push/pull strategies might be most
appropriate
High uncertainty and high value of economies of scale
For example, the furniture or automobile industry
How can production be pull but delivery push?
Is this a pull-push system?
David Simchi-Levi
Push-Pull Strategy
Pull strategy normally leads to a reduction in lead times, inventory
level and system costs and better resource utilization
Unfortunately, it is impractical to implement a pull-based system
throughout the entire supply chain
Due to too long lead times, necessary of economies of scale in
production and transportation
Therefore, a combination of push and pull strategies is preferred
End customer Raw materials Components Assembly
Push strategy Pull strategy
Dells push-pull strategy
David Simchi-Levi 47
Locating the Push-Pull Boundary
The push section:
Uncertainty is relatively low
Economies of scale important
Long lead times
Complex supply chain structures
Thus:
Management based on forecasts is appropriate
Focus is on cost minimization
Achieved by effective resource utilization supply chain
optimization
David Simchi-Levi 48
The pull section:
High uncertainty
Simple supply chain structure
Short lead times
Thus
Reacting to realized demand is important
Focus on service level
Flexible and responsive approaches
Locating the Push-Pull Boundary
David Simchi-Levi
Characteristics and Skills
Raw
Material
Customers
Pull
Push
Low Uncertainty
Long Lead Times
Cost Minimization
Resource Allocation
High Uncertainty
Short Cycle Times
Service Level
Responsiveness
David Simchi-Levi 50
Locating the Push-Pull Boundary
David Simchi-Levi 51
Locating the Push-Pull Boundary
The push section requires:
Supply chain planning
Long term strategies
The pull section requires:
Order fulfillment processes
Customer relationship management
Buffer inventory at the boundaries:
The output of the tactical planning process
The input to the order fulfillment process.
Zhi-Long Chen
52
Distribution Strategy
David Simchi-Levi 53
Types of Distribution Strategies
Direct Shipping
Shipping via Warehouses
Shipping via Cross Docks
Third Party Logistics (3PL)
David Simchi-Levi 54
Direct Shipping (Contd)
Advantages:
Avoids the expense of operating a distribution center
Lead times are reduced
Disadvantages:
Risk pooling strategy cannot be applied in this case
Transportation costs of manufacturing and retailer increase
because inventory must be sent in smaller volumes (less than
truck load)
David Simchi-Levi 55
Shipping Via Warehouses
Advantages:
Better service from regional locations
Transportation economies
Mixing functions
Risk pooling over the manufacturing or procurement
lead time
Differentiated stocking and service policies
David Simchi-Levi 56
Shipping Via Warehouses (Contd)
Design and planning issues:
Number of echelons
Number and location of distribution centers
Stock location: what items to stock at each DC
Replenishment policies inventory & transportation;
who serves whom
Information systems
David Simchi-Levi 57
Shipping Via Cross docks
Warehouses:
Receiving, Sorting, Storing, Order Picking, Shipping
Cross Docks = Warehouses without inventory
Receiving, Sorting, Shipping
Sorting
Receiving
Inbound shipments
Shipping
Outbound shipments
Requires coordination & IT support
David Simchi-Levi 58
Shipping Via Cross docks (Contd)
Goods spend at most 48 hours in the warehouse
Cross Docking avoids inventory and handling costs,
Stores trigger orders for products
Very difficult to manage
Requires advanced information technology
All of Wal-Marts distribution centers, suppliers and
stores are electronically linked to guarantee that any
order is processed and executed in a matter of hours
David Simchi-Levi 59
Shipping Via Cross docks (Contd)
Goods spend at most 48 hours in the warehouse
Cross Docking avoids inventory and handling costs,
Stores trigger orders for products
Very difficult to manage
Requires advanced information technology
All of Wal-Marts distribution centers, suppliers and
stores are electronically linked to guarantee that any
order is processed and executed in a matter of hours
David Simchi-Levi 60
Shipping Via Cross docks (Contd)
Wal-Mart operates a private satellite-communications
system that sends point-of-sale data to all its vendors
allowing them to have a clear vision of sales at the
stores
Needs a fast and responsive transportation system
Wal-Mart has a dedicated fleet of 2000 truck that serve
their 19 warehouses. This allows them to ship goods
from warehouses to stores in less than 48 hours
replenish stores twice a week on average
David Simchi-Levi 61
Comparing Three Strategies
W2
Factory
W1
W3
Decentralized system: r = 1, L
Safety stock at each warehouse proportional to
Total safety stock
i
L 1 o +
3
i
i 1
z L 1 o
=
~ +
David Simchi-Levi 62
Comparing Three Strategies
(Contd)
W2
Factory
W1
W3
Idealized system: r=1, L
Total safety stock
Safety stock at each warehouse
3
2
i
i
3
i 1
i
i 1
z L 1
o
o
o
=
=
~ +
3
2
i
i 1
z L 1 o
=
~ +
David Simchi-Levi 63
Comparing Three Strategies
(Contd)
W2
Factory
W1
W3
Cross-dock system: r = 1, L = L
1
+ L
2
Each period:
System replenishment order = d
1
+ d
2
+ d
3
Allocate stock
receipts to balance inventories
Transship allocations
L
1
L
2
David Simchi-Levi 64
Comparing Three Strategies
Total safety stock
Decentralized
Idealized
Cross-dock
n L 1 o ~ +
n L 1 o ~ +
1
2
L
n L 1
n
o ~ + +
n identical warehouses,
each with standard deviation of demand = o
Stephen C. Graves
65
L
1
=0 L
1
=2 L
1
=5 L
1
=8 L
1
=10 Ideal
n=1 166 166 166 166 166 166
n=2 332 316 292 265 245 235
n=3 497 466 415 357 312 287
n=5 829 766 661 536 433 371
n=10 1658 1517 1275 975 707 524
Safety stock
L = 10, o = 50, n warehouses with same o
Cross-Docking v.s. Idealized System
Stephen C. Graves
66
# of Ws One-echelon Two-echelon
n=1 150 212
n=2 300 342
n=3 450 457
n=4 600 566
n=5 750 671
Decentralized v.s. CDC
Zhi-Long Chen
67
Revenue Management
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Example:
A cruise ship with C=400 identical cabins
The Price-Quantity relationship
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Price
No.
seats
2000
1000
P=2000-2Q
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Example:
A cruise ship with C=400 identical cabins
The Price-Quantity relationship
What is the price that the company should
charge to maximize revenue?
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Price
No.
seats
P
0
=1200
C=500
Revenue=480,000
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Price
No.
seats
P
0
=1200
C=400
Money on the Table=160,000
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Price
No.
seats
P
2
=1600
Q
2
=200
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Price
No.
seats
Q
1
=400
P
1
=1200
Q
2
=200
P
2
=1600
Revenue=1600(200) + 1200(400-200)=560,000
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Can we increase revenue more?
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Revenue Management
Price
No.
seats
Q
1
=400
P
1
=1200
Q
2
=200
P
2
=1600
P
3
=1800
Q
3
=100
Revenue=1800(100) + 1600(200-100) +
1200(400-200)=580,000
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
How can the firm prevent customers
from moving from one class to another?
Leisure
Travelers
Business
Travelers
No
Offer
No
Demand
Sensitivity
to
Price
Sensitivity to Duration
Sensitivity to Flexibility
High Low
Low
High
Mail-in Rebate
To differentiate between customers based on their
sensitivity to price
Adding significant hurdle to the buying process; to
receive rebate
Have to complete and mail the coupon to the
manufacturer
Those customers willing to pay the higher price will not
necessarily send the coupon
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
A Retailer and a manufacturer.
Retailer faces customer demand.
Retailer orders from manufacturer.
Selling Price=?
Wholesale Price=$900
Retailer Manufacturer
Variable Production Cost=$200
Example
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Example (Contd)
Deman
d
Price
10000
2000
P=2000-0.2Q
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Retailer Expected Profit
(No Rebate)
0
200, 000
400, 000
600, 000
800, 000
1, 000, 000
1, 200, 000
1, 400, 000
1, 600, 000
500 1, 000 1, 500 2, 000 2, 500 3, 000 3, 500 3, 654 4, 110 4, 567 4, 547
Order
R
e
t
a
i
l
e
r
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d
P
r
o
f
i
t
$1,370,096
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Manufacturer Profit
(No Rebate)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
5
0
0
1
,
0
0
0
1
,
5
0
0
2
,
0
0
0
2
,
5
0
0
3
,
0
0
0
3
,
5
0
0
3
,
6
5
4
4
,
1
1
0
4
,
5
6
7
4
,
5
4
7
4
,
9
6
1
5
,
3
7
4
5
,
7
8
8
6
,
2
0
1
6
,
6
1
4
7
,
0
2
8
7
,
4
4
1
7
,
8
5
5
Order
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
e
r
P
r
o
f
i
t
$1,750,000
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Example (Contd)
Deman
d
Price
10000
2000
P=2100-0.2Q
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Retailer Expected Profit
($100 Rebate)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,110 4,567 4,547 4,961
Order
R
e
t
a
i
l
e
r
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d
P
r
o
f
i
t
$1,644,115
Copyright 2002 D.
Simchi-Levi
Manufacturer Profit
($100 Rebate)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1
,
0
0
0
1
,
5
0
0
2
,
0
0
0
2
,
5
0
0
3
,
0
0
0
3
,
5
0
0
4
,
0
0
0
4
,
1
1
0
4
,
5
6
7
4
,
5
4
7
4
,
9
6
1
5
,
3
7
4
5
,
7
8
8
6
,
2
0
1
6
,
6
1
4
7
,
0
2
8
7
,
4
4
1
7
,
8
5
5
8
,
2
6
8
Order
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
e
r
P
r
o
f
i
t
$1,810,392
Zhi-Long Chen
86
Main Reference
Presentation slides of Prof. Zhi-Long Chen in the course
Supply Chain Strategies, MIT, Mass, US.
Simchi-levi, D., Kaminski, P. and Simchi-levi, E. (2004),
Chapter 3, Inventory Management.
Simchi-Levi, D., Kaminsky, P. and Simchi-Levi, E.
(2003), Designing and Managing the Supply Chain,
Irwin McGraw Hill, 2nd edition.