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David A. Kenny
University of Connecticut
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Overview
Introduction (click to go there) Baron & Kenny Steps (click) Power (click) Test of the Indirect Effect (click) Assumptions (click) Additional Variables (click)
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Introduction
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Interest in Mediation
Mentions of mediation or mediator in psychology abstracts: 1980: 36 1990: 122 2000: 339 2010: 1,198
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Partial Mediation
Meet steps 1, 2, and 3 and find that c is smaller in absolute value than c.
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Example Dataset
Morse et al. J. of Community Psychology, 1994 treatment housing contacts days of stable housing persons randomly assigned to treatment groups. 109 people
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Decomposition of Effects
Total Effect = Direct Effect + Indirect Effect c = c + ab Note that ab = c - c This equality exactly holds for multiple regression, but not necessarily for other estimation methods. Example:
6.558 = 3.998 + 2.560 (1.831x 1.398) And 100(2.56/6.56) = 39% of the total effect is explained (ab/c or equivalently 1 - c/c).
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Inconsistent Mediation
ab and c have a different sign X as a suppressor variable Example: Stress and Mood with Coping as a Mediator Consequences
Step 1 may fail Percent mediated greater than 100%
Do we have mediation?
Yes. There is an indirect effect (ab > 0). No. There is no effect that is mediated.
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Presenting Mediation
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Power
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Strategies to Test ab = 0
Test a and b separately Sobel test Bootstrapping
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Example
a = 1.831 and b = 1.398 sa = 0.728 and sb = 0.301 ab = 2.56; sab = 1.157 Sobel test Z is 2.213, p = .027 We conclude that the indirect effect is statistically different from zero.
Website: http://www.people.ku.edu/~preacher/sobel/sobel.htm
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Large values of ab are more variable than small values (i.e., 0).
The distribution of ab is highly skewed which lowers the power of the test.
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Bootstrapping
Nonparametric way of computing a sampling distribution. Re-sampling (with replacement) Many trials (computationally intensive) Correct for bias
Mean of the bootstrap estimate differs slightly from the estimate.
Compute a confidence interval which is asymmetric. Slight changes because empirically derived.
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Results of Bootstrapping
95% Bias Corrected Confidence Interval: Lower Upper .4322 5.0326 Note that the CI is asymmetric for an estimate of 2.598. Also values differ to sampling error. (Done using the Hayes & Preacher macro from http://www.afhayes.com/spss-sas-and-mplus-macros-and-code.html.)
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Assumptions
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Causal Assumptions
Perfect Reliability for M and X No Reverse Causal Effects Y may not cause M M and Y not cause X No Omitted Variables all common causes of M and Y, X and M, and X and Y measured and controlled (Guaranteed if X is manipulated.)
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Note that U1 and U2 are theoretical variables and not errors from a regression equation.
U2
1 c'
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Unreliability
Usually safe to assume that X is perfectly reliable. Measurement error in Y does not bias unstandardized regression coefficients. Measurement error in M is problematic.
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Unreliability in M
Error
1
M
1 1
U1
M Latent
U2
1 c'
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Effect of Unreliability in M
b is attenuated (closer to zero) c is inflated (given consistent mediation) more as a increases more as b increases Note that the bigger the indirect, the greater the bias in c.
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Omitted Variables
U1
1 e
Omitted Variable
f a b
U2
1 c'
Y
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Standard Results
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Reverse Causation
U1
1
a g
U2
1 c'
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M
1
EX
1 a
EM U
X
1 1
V
1
X True
c'
Y
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1 1
M True
V
1
c'
Y
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Additional Variables
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Additional Variables
Multiple Xs Multiple Ms Multiple Ys Covariates
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Multiple Xs
Consider two Xs.
happens when X is categorical and there are more than two treatment groups
Now two indirect effects a1b and a2b. Can combine the Xs using a formative variable.
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Multiple Mediators
Consider two mediators, 1 and 2, and two indirect effects a1b1 and a2b2. Can test:
Are both different from zero? Is each different from zero? Is one larger than the other?
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Example
Two mediators: housing contacts and entitlement contacts. Tests:
Is the sum different from zero?
c c CI: (1.2383 to 6.6453) Yes
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Causal Chains
One mediator causes another X M1 M2 Y Indirect effect the product of three terms: ab1b2
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Multiple Outcomes
Consider two outcomes. Now two indirect effects ab1 and ab2. Consider combining outcome variables into a single variable, e.g., as a latent variables.
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Covariates
Often there are variables in the analysis that need to be controlled:
Demographics Baseline measures
Conclusion
Mediational Analyses Are Very Simple Mediational Analyses Are Very Difficult
Difficulties are more in the conceptualization and measurement than in the statistical analysis.
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Additional Slides
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Moderated Mediation
Begin with a mediation analysis and estimate a, b, and c. Two paths that can be moderated a path might vary due to moderator b path might vary due to moderator If one or both is moderated, the indirect effect or ab is moderated. Strategy Conduct two moderator analyses: one on M and one on Y. Measure how the indirect effect changes as a function of the moderator. That change need not be linear.
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Mediated Moderation
Begin with moderation.
Show that the moderator affects the X Y
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Graph of Mediation
Copied from MacKinnon et al. (2007)
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DataToText Project
Have the researcher tell DataToText what is the research question. DataToText performs the requisite analyses. DataToText gives the results from those analyses: computer output a written description
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http://davidakenny.net/dtt/datatotext.htm http://davidakenny.net/dtt/mediate.htm
Morse et al.: The effect of Treatment on Stable Housing is mediated by Housing Contacts.
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