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Example 1
Average demand for an inventory item is 200 units per day, lead time is three days, there is no variation in demand and lead time and therefore, safety stock is zero. What is the reorder point? In a perpetual inventory system, the ROP is the point at which inventory on hand is equal to the [average] demand in lead time plus safety stock. ROP = 3(200) Whenever inventory level drops to 600 units we place an order. We receive the order in 3 days. Because there is no variations in demand, there is no stock out.
Example 2
Average demand for an inventory item is 200 units per day, lead time is three days, and safety stock is 100 units. What is the reorder point In a perpetual inventory system, the ROP is the point at which inventory on hand is equal to the average demand in lead time plus safety stock.
ROP = 3(200)+100
Whenever inventory level drops to 700 units we place an order. Since there is variation in demand, during the next three days, we may have a demand of 500, 600, 700, or even more.
Inventory
Time
LT
Inventory
Time
Inventory
Time
Safety Stock
Quantity
A large demand during lead time Average demand during lead time
ROP
Safety stock
LT Time
Safety Stock
ROP
Quantity
LT
Time
If we order when the inventory on hand is equal to the average demand during the lead time; then there is 50% chance that the demand during lead time is less than our inventory.
However, there is also 50% chance that the demand during lead time is greater than our inventory, and we will be out of stock for a while. We usually do not like 50% probability of stock out
We can accept some risk of being out of stock, but we usually like a risk of less than 50%.
Risk of a stockout
Safety stock
RO P
z
Quantity
z-scale
Each Normal variable x is associated with a standard Normal Variable z x is Normal (Average x , Standard Deviation x) z is Normal (0,1) There is a table for z which tells us Given any probability of not exceeding z. What is the value of z Given any value for z. What is the probability of not exceeding z
Common z Values
Risk of a stockout
Safety stock
RO P
z
Quantity
z-scale
Risk
0.1 0.05 0.01
Service level
0.9 0.95 0.99
z value
1.28 1.65 2.33
Risk of a stockout
Safety stock
RO P
z
Quantity
z-scale
Risk
0.1 0.05 0.01
Risk of a stockout
Safety stock
RO P
z
Quantity
z-scale
LTD = Lead Time Demand ROP = Average LTD +z (Standard Deviation of LTD) ROP = Average LTD +ss ss = z (Standard Deviation of LTD)
Risk of a stockout
Safety stock
RO P
z
Quantity
z-scale
Average Demand of sand during lead time is 75 tons. Standard deviation of demand during lead time is 10 tons. Assume that the management is willing to accept a risk no more that 10%.
What is the service level? Service level = 1-risk of stockout = 1-0.1 = 0.9
z = 1.28 What is safety stock? ss = 1.28(10) = 12.8 ROP = Average demand during lead time + ss ROP = 75 + 12.8 = 87.8 The general relationship between service level, risk, and safety stock: Service level increases Risk decreases ss increases
LT : Lead time
d : Demand
d : Average Demand
Average demand during lead time : ( LT ) d
LT : 2 weeks
d : 50 tons
d : 3 tons
ROP d LT z LT d
ROP 50 2 1.28 2 3
dLT : d LT
d : 50 tons
LT : 2 weeks
LT : .5 week
ROP d LT zd LT
ROP 50 2 1.28 50 .5
ROP 100 32
Assignment 12.d
(a) Average demand per day is 20 units and lead time is 10 days. Assume zero safety stock (ss=0). Compute ROP. (b) Average demand per day is 20 units and lead time is 10 days. Assume 70 units of safety stock. ss=70. Compute ROP.
(c) If average demand during the lead time is 200 and standard deviation of demand during lead time is 25. Compute ROP at 90% service level. Compute ss. (d) If average demand per day is 20 units and standard deviation of demand is 5 per day, and lead time is 16 days. Compute ROP at 90% service level. Compute ss.
(e) If demand per day is 20 units and lead time is 16 days and standard deviation of lead time is 4 days. Compute ROP at 90% service level. Compute ss.