Investment Trends 2013

Ramesh Padmanabhan vnipl@yahoo.com

What next

Continuing conspicuous consumption Unstable politics of coalitions No major changes in interest rates or monetary policy Weaker rupee - expect 5-10% downslide against US$ More FDI encouragement and investment will be sought Taxation

No major concessions Service tax and excise duty gap may get smaller

Higher fiscal deficit

What can investors look for

Global climate change is getting more serious Food production is getting more difficult Indian oil and gas consumption increases in volume Defence imports continue IT Markets show static trend Japanese investors have big India plans Possible bankruptcy of one major Indian company

Specific investigation needed of positive consumption trends

Consumption of alcohol

Post settlement with UB, will Kishore Chabbria go for a IPO Venkys Godrej

Consumption of Poultry products

Consumption of cement Hotter climate means more HVAC investment

Hitachi Whirlpool set-top box related forced investment Dish TV, Hathaway Cable

TV viewing

Specific investigation needed of negative consumption trends

India is becoming

Diabetes hub of the world Mentally stressed Heart Surgery is very common Low vitamin D levels High cancer levels

Sun Pharma, Cipla

Opto Circuits

Medical electronics and body part manufacturing

Medical insurance growing market National Hospital Chain

Apollo vs. Fortis

Water Shortage, Waste disposal, Pollution

Water shortage is on Waste is surrounding us Pollution is in the air Check out prospects for Hitachi desalination plant in Gujarat and who are the key sub-contractors

Metro and Hi-speed rail corridors

Delhi Metro funded by Japan Japan wants to fund Delhi-Mumbai dedicated freight rail corridor Japan is also keen on Bangalore-Chennai rail corridor Hitachi and another Japanese major company held Board meetings 1st time outside Japan in Delhi Who are the possible subcontractors, exporters involved

Oil and Gas

LNG Petronet gas terminal starts operations in Kochi Which fertiliser, power company etc will switch to gas and save costs Cairn India to increase oil production and exploration in Rajasthan

Investors to think Debt Free

Should we earn more , spend and eat more Or loose weight, eat more healthy food Reduce personal power consumption Country, Company and Citizen should have zero debt levels as soon as possible Invest in zero debt companies as far as possible

Investment advice

We want risk free high returns Risk is mitigated by data collection analysis 100% data analysis gets completed after investment opportunity is over We invest in risky investments with 0% data analysis Buddha suggested that we follow the middle path, so investors should invest in less risky opportunities with some data analysis of their own

What to still look for

Companies which will move from middle of the urban metropolis

Past - DCM, Arvind, Phoenix, GKW, TTK, UB Next - Hume Pipes Bangalore Unit, Escorts

GOI backed large data automation projects like Rail, Income Tax, MCA 21, Aadhaar, Passport

Which is the next such life impacting GOI IT project? Demat of NSCs, Bank FDs

Elections are on in 2014

better business for BEL EVMs and Mysore Inks

Insurance Company Stake

If IPOs get allowed, this would be a big event

IDBI, Federal Bank Perhaps also Max Group, GMR Group

Retail

Is Big Bazaar likely to be taken over Reliance vs. Aditya Birla Walmart , Tesco, Auchan , Metro Buying power and economy of scale will decide who wins

Key 2013 Investment Strategy

Invest in Indian companies making products

satisfying consumer demand addressing the pitfalls of consumer consumption