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(ME-524)
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Design Reliability
By B. S. Dhillon
Engineering Statistics
by Walpole & Meyers
FINAL DEGREE
ORGANIZATION
JOB TITLE
JOB DESCRIPTION EXPERTIES
Reliability Importance
One of the most important characteristics of a product, it is a measure of its performance with time (Transatlantic and Transpacific cables) Products recalls are common (only after time elapses). In October 2006, Sony Corporation recalled up to 9.6 million of its personal computer batteries Products are discontinued because of fatal accidents Medical devices and organs (reliability of artificial organs)
Failure prediction:
Analysis of field data at normal conditions Accelerated life testing Accelerated degradation testing other testing
Reliability Economics
Auto Warranty Cost In 2006, Hyundai chose to woo buyers in America by promising quality and reliability. It issued an ambitious new warranty, good for five years (ten on the engine and transmission), then challenged its engineers to back that up with flaw-proof cars. The early sign are they have delivered. Hyundai has trimmed its warranty provision from 5.7% to just 1.8% of its revenue Sales and profits are up.
Reliability Economics
Oil Pipeline Shutdown (Hardware Failure)
BP shuts oilfield August 8, 2006 Damaged pipeline in Alaska affects 8% of U.S. oil production; crude surges; record gas prices seen. The price of crude jumped $2.22 a barrel on the shutdown news to over $76. Gasoline futures rose 3.35 cents to $2.2650 a gallon. The threat of a stoppage also endangers Alaska's budget: Oil taxes account for more than 90 percent of its revenues. BP officials have acknowledged they did not test the pipes adequately using a so-called pig device which runs through a pipe to gauge corrosion (utilizes ultrasound to detect corrosion). Lack of proper inspection.
Reliability Economics
Oil Pipeline No-Shutdown (Hardware Failure)
BP Fails to Shutdown Oil Pipeline (April 10, 2010) A blowout on an oil rig occurs when some combination of pressurized natural gas, oil, mud, and water escapes from a well, shoots up the drill pipe to the surface, expands and ignites. Wells are equipped with structures called blowout preventers that sit on the wellhead and are supposed to shut off that flow and tamp the well. Deepwater blowout preventer failed. Two switches one manual and an automatic backup failed to start it (System Design).
Reliability Engineering
Air Traffic Delays (Software Failure) Nov 19 2009: A computer glitch caused flight cancellations and delays across the U.S. The problem involved the FAA computer systems in Salt Lake City and Atlanta that handle automated flight plans, forcing air traffic controllers to revert to the much more time consuming approach of entering flight plans by hand. Software failure (7000 flights)
Requirement
When you a buy a product or service
you request high quality and high reliability How do you measure it? What is high? How long? Reliability: 0.99 at year 5, 0.999 at year 4
Time dependent qualityreliability How do companies predict reliability and estimate warranty?
Motivation
Intense Global Competition Customer Expectations Customer Loyalty Product Liability
Motivation
A failure free product produced at the minimum possible cost is a prerequisite for a success on the current markets. Rapidly Changing, Diverse & New Technologies form new challenges. => Design for reliability of electronic systems and quality in manufacturing plays a very important role.
The size of the system the intricacy of the specified functions, the length of useful interval of the life variable, and the degree of hostility of the system's environment all influence the reliability. It will be clear that the tendency towards larger systems, i.e. systems with larger numbers of components, would decrease the reliability if the development of more reliable system components and structures does not keep in step. There are many such systems with a large quantitative complexity, such as energy distribution network, telecommunication systems, digital computer networks, and space probes.
DEFINITION
The concept of reliability has been interpreted in many ways in numerous works. Since many of these do not agree in content, it is expedient to examine the main ones. The following definitions of reliability are most often met with in the literature.
1. Reliability the integral of the distribution of probabilities of failure - free operation from the instant of switch- on to the first failure. 2. The reliability of a component for a system, is the probability that the component (or a system) will not fail for a time t. 3. Reliability the probability that a device will operate without failure for a given period of time under given operating conditions. 4. Reliability is the mean operating time of a given specimen between two failures. 5. The reliability of a system is called its capacity for failure free operation for a definite period of time under given operating conditions, and for minimum time lost for repair and preventive maintenance. 6. The reliability of equipment is arbitrarily assumed to be the equipment capacity to maintain given properties under specified operating condition and for a given period of time.
DEFINITION
One of the definitions which has been accepted by most contemporary reliability authorities is given by the Electronics Industries Association (EIA), USA: The reliability an item (a component, a complex system, a computer Program or a human being) is defined as the probability of Performing its purpose adequately for the period of time intended under the operating and environmental conditions encountered This definition stresses rote elements:
Probability Adequate performance Time Operating and environmental conditions.
DEFINITION
Aspects
What is the intended function? What are the defined operating conditions? How should time be defined?
We must clearly define these characteristics when defining reliability for a specific application
DEFINITION
The true reliability is never exactly known, but numerical estimates quite close to this value can be obtained by the use of statistical methods and probability calculations. How close the statistically estimated reliability comes to the true reliability depends on the amount of testing, the completeness of field service reporting all successes and failures, and other essential data. For the statistical evaluation of an equipment, the equipment has to be operated and its performance observed for a specified time under actual operating conditions in the field or under well simulated conditions in a Laboratory. Criteria of what la considered an adequate performance have to be exactly spelled out for each case in advance.
CAUSES OF FAILURES
The specific causes of failures of components and equipment in a system can be many Some are known and others are unknown due the complexity of the system and its environment. A few of them are below:
Poor Design, Production and Use System Complexity Poor Maintenance
Product Reliability
According to customers interviewed on the significance of product attributes, reliability ranks in first place as the most significant attribute.
Product Reliability
Todays development of modern products is confronted with rising functional requirements, higher complexity, integration of hardware, software and sensor technology and with reduced product and development costs. These, along with other influential factors on the reliability, are:
Product Reliability
To achieve a high customers satisfaction, system reliability must be examined during the complete product development cycle from the viewpoint of the customer. To achieve this, adequate organizational and subject related measures must be taken. Methodological reliability tools, both quantitative and qualitative, can be used for a specific situation.
Product Reliability
The earlier reliability analyses are applied, the greater the profit. The wellknown Rule of Ten shows this quite distinctly
Product Reliability
A qualitative reliability analysis provides a conceptual basis for the degree of confidence placed on a particular component or system and should be capable in the incipient stages of design for alteration of these components. A quantitative reliability prognosis gives a probability assessment of the component based on well founded statistical techniques.
Variable
Continuous variable.
Continuous variable. Time-to-failure. Continuous variable. Time-to-failure. Continuous variable.
Application
Time-to-failure. Commonly used for electronic parts/assemblies with constant failure rates.
Versatile to any application. Mostly used for products subject to wear-out. Calculating confidence bounds of a constant failure rate estimate. Also used for two samples comparison, goodness-of-fit test, etc.
Binomial
F
Estimating probability of success from repeated tests. Also used for sampling plan.
Calculating confidence bounds of a probability of success. Also used for two samples comparison.
BATHTUB CURVE
Regions It represents a picture of the lifecycle of a product which comprises of three stages. These are:
1) Early Failure Period 2) Intrinsic Failure Period 3) Wear-out Failure Period
BATHTUB CURVE
Regions
INFANT MORTALITY STAGE
The initial region begins at time zero Customer first begin to
use the product is characterized by a high but rapidly decreasing failure rate. This region is also known as EARLYFAILURE PERIOD.
CAUSES Defects produced while designing a product Substandard weak specimens Poor manufacturing Poor quality control PREVENTIVE MEASURES Appropriate specifications Adequate design tolerance Stress testing(evaluate design weaknesses and uncove r specific materials problems) Debugging techniques
BATHTUB CURVE
Regions
STABLE LIFE PERIOD
Either constant (age independent) or slowly varying failure rate. Failure rate much lower than in early life period. Most systems spend most of their lifetime operating in this flat portion of the bathtub curve . It is also known as. USEFUL LIFEPERIOD
CAUSES Unpredictable sudden stress accumulations outside and inside of the components. Mishandling Accidents. PREVENTIVE MEASURES Should be handled with care. Proper maintenance
BATHTUB CURVE
Regions
WEAR-OUT FAILURE PERIOD
Failure rate increases rapidly with age Properly qualified electronic hardware do not exhibit wear out failure during its intended service life. Applicable for mechanical and other systems . Failures are intrinsic.
CAUSES Product has reached the end of its useful life. Stresses accumulated over the life of the product. Due to critical parts wearing out
Reliability Function
The probability of failure as a function of time can be defined as: Where t is a random variable denoting the failure time. Then F(t) is the probability that the system will fail by time t , In other words F(t) is the failure distribution function. If we define reliability as the probability that the system will perform its intended function at a certain time t , we can write:
Reliability Function
If time to failure random variable t has a density function f(t), then:
Failure Rate
To describe the failure behaviour with the failure rate (t), the failures at the point in time t or in a class i are not divided by the sum of total failures, as for the relative frequency, but rather are divided by the sum of units still intact: Failures (at the point in time or in class ) = sum of units still intact (at the point in time or in class ) = ()
R(t)
Figure shows the histogram of the failure rates and the function of the empirical failure rate *(t) for the trial run in Figure. It can be seen, that the failure rate in the last class unavoidably approaches , since there are no longer any intact units. Thus, the denominator in above Equation approaches zero.
Failure Rate
Histogram of the failure rate and the empirical failure rate *(t) for the trial run Determination of the failure rate out of the density function and survival probability
Failure Rate
The example of the 6 gear commercial vehicle transmission, Figure, shows that the bathtub curve is not typical for all technical systems. It is more common when only individual sections of the bathtub curve occur. The failure behaviour for complex systems is thus not characterized alone by the bathtub curve, but much more by differing failure distributions exemplifying various behaviours in certain individual sections
Normal distribution example Seven units are put on a life test and run until failure. The failure times are 85, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110, and 115 hours. Assuming a normal distribution, estimate the parameters using probability plotting.
Data to be filled in Median rank values can be obtained from the tables or calculated from the total number of samples and the particular sample rank.