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P( x) = 1
Example
Suppose the number of cars, x, that pass through a car wash between 4:00pm to 5:00pm on any sunny Friday has the following probability distribution. x P(x) 4 1/12 5 1/12 6 1/4 7 1/4 8 1/6 9 1/6
Let g(x) = 2x-1 represents the amount of money in dollars, paid to the attendant by the manager. Find the attendants expected earnings for this particular time period.
Solution
E( X ) = 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 12 12 4 4 6 6
4 + 5 + 18 + 21 + 16 + 18 82 = = = 6.83 12 12
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is probably the single most important discrete distribution. 1. An important characteristic of the underlying binomial random experiment is that there are only two possible outcomes. ~ toss of a coin Head or Tail ~ election candidate is favored or not ~ a product is defective or non defective ~ an employee is male or female. ~ an invoice being audited is correct or incorrect. 2. Experiment can be repeated in number of times with each outcome independent of the earlier one.
x = specific number of successes in n trials p = probability of success in one of n trials q = probability of failure in one of n trials (q = 1 - p ) P(x) = probability of getting exactly x
success among n trials
Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category being called a success.
n-x
P(x) = nCx px
qn-x
Example At a Y-junction, two thirds of all traffic turns right and one-third turns left, on the average. If four vehicles approach this junction, what is the probability of three of these vehicles turning right.
Binomial Distribution
Example: At a Y-junction, two thirds of all traffic turns right and one-third turns left, on the average. If four vehicles approach this junction, what is the probability of three of these vehicles turning right. P= 2 3 q = 1 P = 1 3
P( X = x) = C n x . P( X = 3) = C 3 .
4
P x q n x 2 3
3
1 3
4! 2 = (4 3)!3! 3
1 3
4 3! 2 = 1 3! 3
1 3
=4
8 1 27 3
32 = 0.395 81
For other probabilities i.e. turning 1, 2, or 4 of turning right. 8 24 16 P( X = 1) = = 0.0987 P( X = 2) = = 0.296 P( X = 4) = = 0.1975 81 81 81