Performing Process Control Using the Corrected Data

Erasing the Cyclic Variability to better see the Trend

Noise + Cycle 7-point Moving Average

Performing Process Control Using the Corrected Data Without Noise and Cycle

Introduction to Variographic Statistical Process Control:

Chronostatistics

Variographic SPC is the natural results of the Sampling Theory based on the important concept of material heterogeneity. There is no effective process control possible without addressing all different kinds of heterogeneity. This is the superiority of Variographic SPC over conventional SPC. We chose to call this new science:

Chronostatistics

Chronostatistics is based on the information gathered with the Variogram. Therefore, we define a Variogram-based hierarchy of Control Limits:

Limits quantifying the pure noise: UCL and LCL = 3 V[0]

+ Process Trend Allowance:

UCL and LCL = { (3 V[0]) + V2[ j=1] }

+ Process Cycle Allowance: UCL and LCL = { (3 V[0]) + V2[ j=1] + V3 }

5

Rationale: Investigate the various sources of variability

Dr. W. Edwards Deming clearly demonstrated in several experiments that we should not react to variations within 3 V[0]. Indeed, there is no logical reason why anyone should react to some variability that does not exist in the process (i.e., UCL and LCL). This concept allows us to optimize the sampling/measurement protocol. An active on-going reaction philosophy should be established to correct for all true process movements, when they are large enough to show through the random noise. For these movements, we must be ready to apply corrective methods. The variations characterized by V2[j=1] are true process movements, predictable over a certain time frame, and potentially correctable. Therefore, we dont want to let variations become larger than { (3 V[0]) + V2[ j=1] } without reacting (i.e., UCL and LCL). However, adding V2[ j=1] to the limits UCL and LCL, to obtain UCL and LCL, makes a calculated allowance for process movements that are outside our control. Indeed, we are unable to react at time intervals shorter then j =1. This concept allows us to optimize the sampling/measurement interval. Adding V3 to the limits UCL and LCL, to obtain UCL and LCL, makes a calculated allowance for a process cycle beyond our control. Know It your is very cycles: difficult They to are effectively alwayscorrect an opportunity a cycle. to If this addition minimize becomes a visible too large, or invisible it is necessary cost. to investigate the causes of the cycle. Sometimes, engineering modifications of the process are necessary to eliminate a cycle. Sometimes, a6 cycle is introduced by ourselves and the way we organize our work.

Case Study

A cement plant preparing a special cement must comply with the following 3 specifications: The Raw Mill must have an average of 5.50% +63 particles. The Upper Specification is 5.80%. The Lower Specification is 5.20%.

The process is controlled by taking a composite sample every 2 hours.

Perform a full variability investigation of what happens within a typical 120-hour time window. Interpret the raw data using the table of data. Interpret the raw data using a chronological plot. Study the Absolute Variogram, step by step. An experiment is necessary: Find out which one. Study the variographic control chart, step by step.
7

J = 1 = 2 hours

Results in % +63
Sample #
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5.61 5.69 5.66 5.57 5.56 5.60 5.53 5.58 5.53 5.49 5.61 5.60 5.55 5.50

Sample #
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 5.55 5.52 5.49 5.49 5.43 5.48 5.40 5.41 5.45 5.43 5.41 5.44 5.47 5.55

15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

5.49
5.51 5.57 5.52 5.51 5.51 5.52 5.55 5.52 5.59 5.61 5.61 5.55 5.52 5.57 5.57

45
46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

5.57
5.58 5.53 5.52 5.48 5.44 5.48 5.48 5.49 5.42 5.41 5.37 5.36 5.40 5.36 5.33

Look at existing chronological data on graphics

Estimation of V[0], V[1], and V[Process j = 1]

V[1]

V[0]

V[Process j =1] = V[1] - V[0]

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The Cyclic Component: Estimation of V3

Period

Maximu m

V3 Second minimum

V[0] is always located at the minimum of the cycle.

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The Process Trend V2[j]

The Process Trend V2 [ j ] is a relative concept depending on the time scale of observation. The scale is defined by the value given to j.

2W

When the variogram increases rapidly for a given value of j, the curve 2W or 3Wis the best estimate of the process trend. For values of j beyond which the variogram reaches its maximum the curves 2W and 3W become meaningless and should not be used. It is then advisable to use W or W. There is obviously a transition zone in which the software user must be cautious, since curves 2w or 3W would lead to an overestimation of the trend, and curves W or W would 12 lead to an underestimation.

Process Trend V2[j] Estimation: Limitations of curves W and 2W

The same thing could be said about curves W and 3W.

2W

In this case, we may approach the maximum of the variogram at j=36, therefore our estimation of V2[j=36] may be slightly overestimated by using the curve 2W. But, the curve W is obviously underestimating.

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Summary of All Observations in a Pie Chart

Why is it, in your opinion, that controlling the process trend is the main problem in this case study?

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Necessary Experiment to Verify the Accuracy of V[0] and V2[Process j =1]

An experiment is conducted to find out the true random variability V[0]. 30 samples are collected at 10-second intervals, under the exact same conditions as routine samples. Subsampling and analytical protocols are kept exactly the same as for routine samples. The following results are obtained: Results in % +63 Sample #
1 2 3 4 5.45 5.52 5.46 5.45

Sample#
16 17 18 19 5.46 5.50 5.53 5.49

5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

5.47
5.52 5.51 5.47 5.52 5.48 5.47 5.50 5.52 5.54 5.48

20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

5.48
5.52 5.47 5.51 5.50 5.45 5.48 5.51 5.50 5.53 5.47

15

Variographic Experiment: Chronological Data

16

Short-term Variographic Experiment

Better estimation of V[1]

Good estimation of V[0]

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Definition of Contractual Specifications

Specifications limits are guidelines to satisfy a contract with a client, or to insure the optimum performance of a process. Specifications limits have nothing to do with the actual variability of a process.

Specification limits are nothing more than a wish list.

We should define:

US : The Upper Specification

TA : The Targeted Average

LS : The Lower Specification

Do not confuse control limits with specification limits.

It is your duty to understand your process variability, therefore it is your duty to set reasonable and realistic control limits that should allow you to investigate the process, correct it if necessary, and maintain it within contractual specifications. 18 You know your process well, therefore contractual specifications often become self-imposed specifications

Definition of Process Control Limits

Process Control Limits were defined in the Variography lectures. There are tools to make the process give feedback, and to minimize the negative effect of all sources of variability we cannot control. We should define:

UCL and LCL : Upper and Lower Control Limits quantifying the variability component 1, 2, or 3 V[0] { 1, 2, or 3 V[0] } + V2 [ j=1] UCL and LCL : Quantifying the variability component { 1, 2, or 3 V[0] } + V2 [ j=1]

UCL and LCL : Quantifying the variability component

{ 1, 2, or 3 V[0] } + V2 [ j=1] + V3

These variability components can be changed as follows: UCL and LCL: Improve the sampling/measurement protocol.

UCL and LCL:

UCL and LCL:

The above, and taking samples/measurements

more often. The above, and eliminating or minimizing the process cycle. This may require engineering modifications. 19

Step #1: Select a Realistic Wish List

US

TA

LS

20

Step #2: Check the Capability of the Sampling/Measurement Protocol

UCL

LCL

21

Step #3: Check the Capability of the Sampling/Measurement Interval

UCL

LCL

22

Step #4: Check the Impact of the Time-Stable Cycle

UCL

LCL

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Sampling Theory and Methods: Reasons for Courses

Prepared and Presented by Francis F. Pitard Francis Pitard Sampling Consultants, LLC

Your decisions are only as good as your samples! Communicating the importance of Correct Sampling

to management,
to the board, to shareholders, to geologists and drillers, to miners and metallurgists, to analytical chemists, to statisticians, to sales people,

to get cash flow, more profit, and added share value.

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Responsibility of a Mining Company

If stakeholders cannot see the value of correct sampling, it is the companys responsibility to show them through Education of management to get resources, Training of key personnel to get results, Education of geologists, miners, metallurgists

to monitor and verify the quality of data,

So statisticians can perform reliable, believable risk assessments.

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Acquisition of a reliable database as a company asset

A correct, balanced strategy is needed: The three-legged Table

Company $ benefits, added stakeholder value, and market perception

Emphasis on causes of problems by proactive management

A strong commitment to good sampling and good laboratory practices

Capability to understand variability and to perform reliable statistical studies

Francis Pitard's drawing protected by copyright law, 2004

26

However, implementing correct sampling is easier said than done.

Exactly like safety issues, it must be internally standardized through: correctness, internal guidelines, sustained training, enforcement auditing. be monitored for its added value through: improved metal recovery, improved conciliation, added stakeholder value.

27

Course attendees must learn to better understand variability:

Small-scale variability, which can be called the Irrelevant Variability: It is a nuisance. Large-scale variability, which can be called the Relevant Variability: It is the one we must measure to know our processes better.
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Small-scale Variability: The term V[0] in a variogram

The four solutions to minimize a catastrophic inflation of V[0] are: Optimizing Sampling Protocols, Implementing Sampling Protocols using correct sampling systems,

Preserving samples integrity,

Minimizing the Analytical Error.
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Optimization of Sampling protocols

Three critically important issues: In situ Nugget Effect INE

(e.g., Selection of diameter/length of a core sample)

Fundamental Error FSE

(e.g., sample and sub-samples mass)

Grouping & Segregation Error GSE

(e.g., Homogenization and number of increments)

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The Practical Implementation Of Sampling Protocols

The nightmare of sampling

Three major sources of sampling bias:

Increment Delimitation Error IDE
(Every part of the lot to be sampled must have exactly the same chance of becoming part of the sample.)

Increment Extraction Error IEE

(The sample recovery error: The sampling system must not be selective.)

Increment Weighting Error IWE

(Sampling systems must be reasonably proportional.)

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Preserving the Integrity of Samples

Another major source of sampling bias: Increment Preparation Errors IPE

(Errors taking place between sampling stages)

Contamination Losses Alteration

Human errors, ignorance

Fraud
32

Practical exercise 1: Sampling of Blast-holes

Name the possible error (IDE, IEE, IWE, or IPE?) taking place at each of the following points, and give solutions. You have 10 minutes.

E D G

Segregation

Former Sub-drill

Ideal sample Actual sample

Current Sub-drill

Francis Pitard's drawing protected by copyright law, 2004

33

Practical Exercise 2: Primary Sampler for the Feed of a Plant

Name the possible error (IDE, IEE, IWE, or IPE?) taking place at each of the following points, and give solutions. You have 10 minutes.

3 6
7

11

9 10

Francis Pitard's drawing protected by copyright law, 2004

34

Practical Exercise 3: The Rotating Vezin Sampler

A very common sampler in the mining industry

Name the possible error (IDE, IEE, IWE, or IPE?) taking place at each of the following points, and give solutions. You have 10 minutes.

3
Falling stream

6 9

4 10

5 7

11 1

8
Francis Pitard's drawing protected by copyright law, 2004

35

Practical Exercise 4: The Cross-belt Sampler

A very popular, dangerous sampling system

Name the possible error (IDE, IEE, IWE, or IPE?) taking place at each of the following points, and give solutions. You have 10 minutes.

7 6

1 2 3

5
Francis Pitard's drawing protected by copyright law, 2004
36

Why is it that a training course is so essential?

Because all the possible problems created by each point addressed in the 4 exercises, that should be solved within minutes, usually are the object of unnecessary
doubts and arguments, time-consuming meetings, endless arguments with manufacturers and engineering firms,

very expensive bias tests followed by doubtful

statistics,

furthermore, because each point can lead to devastating money losses for the unaware company. Lets give a few stunning examples.

37

Case #1: A bad protocol followed by incorrect implementation

Large Copper mine in northern Chile:

US $ 134 000 000 loss difference between a bad sampling and subsampling protocol and a better one, for blast-holes, over a 10-year period.

P. Carrasco: WCSB1, Denmark 2003

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Case #2: An incorrect sampling system for the tailings of a floatation plant

Example of a large Copper mine in Chile:

US $2 000 000 000 loss through tailings over a 20-year period

P. Carrasco: WCSB1, Denmark 2003

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Summary: Who are the enemies?

2 S IDEn n

S
n

2 FSEn

S
n

2 S IWEn n

2 GSEn

2 HE1

V [0]

2 S AEn n

2 S INE
Francis Pitard's drawing protected by copyright law, 2004

2 S IEEn n

2 S IPE n n

Remember this sign:

n
40