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Principles of Risk
Environmental Risk Management

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Risk Management Process

IRM et al (2002) A Risk Management Standard

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Emergency Preparedness: 6 Stage Cycle
Contextualisation Hazard review and allocation for assessment

Risk evaluation

Risk analysis

Risk treatment

Monitoring & review

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The Cycle of Disaster Planning
Stage 1: Initiate Disaster Planning

EXIT: Disaster Planning not feasible

Hazard mapping Vulnerability & capacity Loss estimation

Stage 3: Establish Levels of Acceptable Risk

Stage 6: Feedback Loops

Stage 2: Risk Assessment

Disaster preparedness Disaster mitigation

Testing plans through simulation Applying plans in disasters

Stage 4: Disaster Planning Stage 5: Implementing the Plans

Environmental RiskSchool Analysis The Business

Hazard Analysis

Vulnerability Analysis

Interpretation

Risk Analysis

The Crunch Model orSchool Pressure & The Business Release (PAR) Model
Based on the concept of: Hazard x Vulnerability = Disaster or Risk of Disaster The crunch model adds an additional dimension to earlier VCA/CVA frameworks as it illustrates the Progression of Vulnerability in three developing stages: Root Causes Dynamic Pressures Unsafe Conditions

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Root causes Dynamic pressures Unsafe conditions Disaster
Lack of: Local institutions Training Appropriate skills Local investments Local markets Press freedom Ethical standards in public life Macro-forces: Rapid population change Rapid urbanisation Economic systems Arms expenditure Debt repayment schedules Deforestation Decline in soil productivity Physical: Dangerous location Unprotected buildings & infrastructure Local economy: Livelihoods at risk Low income levels Social relations: Special groups at risk R Lack of local institutions Public actions & institutions Lack of disaster preparedness Prevalence of endemic diseases

The progression of vulnerability

Hazards

Earthquake High winds Flooding

Limited access to: Power Structures Resources Ideologies: Political systems Economic systems

=HxV

Volcanoes Landslide Drought Virus & pests

Pressure & Release (PAR) Model

RISK = Hazard x Vulnerability

Vulnerability School The Business

Disasters do not occur simply because of a physical or environmental hazard .

But the hazard must impact on groups of people that are at different levels of preparedness (either by accident or design), resilience, and with varying capacities for recovery.
[Cannon et al (2003)]

Disasters happen when a natural phenomenon affects a population that is inadequately prepared and unable to recover without external assistance

Vulnerability is the term

used to describe the condition of such people

The BusinessEnvironmental School Environmentalrisk risk

or ordisaster disasterevent event
From Pelling (2001) Human vulnerability Natural Hazard

Exposure

Resistance

Resilience

Magnitude

Frequency

Location

Surroundings Livelihood

Health

Adjustments

Preparation

Global social, economic & political pressures

Human induced global environmental change

vulnerability The Social Business School

A complex set of characteristics that include a persons:
Initial well-being (nutritional status, mental health, morale, etc) Livelihood and resilience (asset pattern and capitals, income, qualifications, etc) Self-protection (degree of protection dependent on capability and willingness to build a safe home, use a safe site, etc. ) Social protection (societal hazard preparedness building codes, shelters, emergency measures, etc.) Social and political networks and institutions (social capital, but also institutional environment etc)
Cannon et al (2003)

Capacities and Vulnerabilities Analysis (CVA) The Business School Anderson & Woodrow, 1988
CAPACITIES
PHYSICAL/ MATERIAL What productive resources, skills, and hazards exist? SOCIAL/ ORGANISATIONAL What are the relations and organisation among people? MOTIVATIONAL/ ATTITUDINAL How does the community view its ability to create change?

VULNERABILITIES

The Vulnerability and Capacity The Business School Assessment (VCA) tool
Developed by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) and Red Crescent Societies in the early 1990s. A full assessment has three key stages: Step 1: Identifying potential threats (based in nature, violence and deterioration). Step 2: Identifying social vulnerabilities (three characteristics make certain groups more vulnerable than others: proximity and exposure, poverty and exclusion or marginalisation). Step 3: Assessing capacities and strengths (physical/material, social/organisational and skills and attitudes).

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VCA is used principally as:

Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (VCA)

A diagnostic tool to understand problems and their underlying causes. A planning tool to prioritise and sequence actions and inputs. A risk assessment tool to help assess specific risks. A tool for empowering and mobilising vulnerable communities.

Some alternative or adapted The Business School assessment models

The Citizens Disaster Response Center and Network (CDRC/N ) in the Philippines has adopted the CVA methodology since the early 1990s part of their Citizenry-Based and Development-Oriented Disaster Response (CBDO-DR) approach The La Red Network has build up considerable experience in participatory community risk assessment in Latin America. The Peri Peri network has actively promoted the use of VCA in southern Africa. Tearfund and partner organisations in India are currently involved in VCA activities. OXFAM developed a Participatory Capacities and Vulnerabilities Assessment (PCVA) tool. ActionAid has been engaged in Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA). CARE has developed a Household Livelihood Security Assessment tool kit.

Participatory Vulnerability Analysis The Business School (PVA)

Step 1: Situation analysis of vulnerability Step 2: Analysing causes of vulnerability Step 3: Analysis of community action Step 4: Drawing action from analysis

Action Aid International (undated)

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The Manila landslide disaster, 2000

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The most important tasks and steps in vulnerability analysis are:
1) Identification of potentially vulnerable individuals or elements. Based on basic data collection on population, location, self-protection capability 2) Identification and analysis of factors influencing or resulting in vulnerability (vulnerability factors for each hazard type). Analysis of risk perception and investigation of the vulnerability factors, their linkage and interdependencies ie: Physical vulnerability factors Social factors Economic factors Environmental factors 3) Development and identification of indicators for identifying vulnerabilities and estimating the degree of vulnerability

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4) Analysis of self-protection capabilities: identification of indicators showing capacity for preparedness: consideration of strategies and measures at various levels (family, village, community, district, province, country). The following indicate the existence or extent of coping strategies: monitoring and early warning systems traditional forecasting and early warning systems plans for disaster reduction plans and fund for disaster protection insurance policies construction standards maintenance of basic infrastructure preventive structures, protective infrastructure land use planning, spatial planning, zoning organisation and communication (emergency committees) stability of settlement, social structures local knowledge (of hazards) 5) Estimate of accepted risk (risk level) and hence residual risk.

High risk groups The Business School

Certain groups in society who persistently suffer to a disproportionate degree from disaster impact. These high-risk groups often include: The victims of official or cultural prejudice, (such as ethnic or religious minorities) leading to inequitable access to resources, Low caste groups Certain occupations (for example, fishermen in cyclone prone areas) Women in certain societies, Babies and small children, Those with special needs such as disability, The sick, The elderly. In some societies these high risk groups may form the majority of the population.

Davis et al Social Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis Workshop Geneva, 25-26 May 2004

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GENDER FACTORS INCREASING RISK FOR GIRLS AND WOMEN Childbirth- and pregnancy-related health limitations Longer life span and increased mobility limitations, chronic illness, disabilities Limited reproductive control Greater risk of domestic and sexual violence More likely to be sole economic providers Lower incomes, more economic dependency; less access to credit Fewer land rights; less control over labor More often employed as part-time, "flexible" workers, and in free trade zones More responsibility for dependents More dependent on child care centers, schools, clinics, and other public services

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Less access to transportation Higher illiteracy rates, lower levels of schooling and training More dependent on water, fuel wood, crops and other natural resources Less free time and personal autonomy More often socially isolated Less decision-making power in homes and political institutions Subject to "intersecting vulnerabilities," e.g. as impoverished women raising families in substandard housing; underemployed disabled women subject to sexual violence; frail older women who are illiterate Low representation in emergency management organizations and professions Less knowledge of how to access emergency assistance or capacity to do so

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Anderson M & Woodrow P (1998) Rising from the Ashes: Development Strategies in Times of Disaster Cannon T et al (2003) Social Vulnerability, Sustainable Livelihoods and Disasters Report to DFID and Sustainable Livelihoods Support Office Pelling M (2002) Assessing urban vulnerability and social adaptation to risk International Development Planning Review 24:1 59-76 Pelling M (2003) The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience Smith D & Elliott D (Eds.) (2006) Key Reading in Crisis Management Wisner B (2001) Marginality and vulnerability: why the homeless of Tokyo dont count in disaster preparations Applied Geography 18:1 pp 2533 Wisner B et al (2004) (2nd Edition) At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disasters

Key Readings

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GTZ 2004

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GTZ 2004

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The Business FEMA School

(US Federal Emergency Management Agency)

Established in 1979 and merged several separate disaster-related responsibilities into a single agency. From 2003 it became part of the Department of Homeland Security. As of November 2007, FEMA had responded to more than 2,700 presidentially declared disasters. The Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006 created a newly expanded FEMA.
FEMAs mission is to reduce the loss of life and property and protect communities nationwide from all hazards, including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other man-made disasters. FEMA leads and supports the nation in a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of preparedness, protection, response, recovery and mitigation.

FEMA School The Business

Social Technical

Mitigation Plan The STAPLEE Approach

Public must support overall implementation and specific mitigation actions, so plans tested for community acceptance. To check the plans are technically feasible and will help reduce losses, with minimal secondary impacts

Administrative Examines the anticipated staffing, funding, and maintenance requirements of the mitigating action. Political Legal Economic Examines the level of political support for the mitigation programmes and activities Checks to ensure that the proposed actions are permissable under local, regional, state and federal legislation Checks that the proposals are cost-effective and funding is available. Notes that big ticket mitigation actions are often considered for implementation in a post-disaster scenario ..

Environmental Checks that there are no significant negative impacts on environmental assets (eg wildlfe, wetlands, other resources)

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FEMA Community Rating System (CRS)
The Community Rating System (CRS) rewards communities that exceed the minimum requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The aim goal of the CRS is to encourage, via flood insurance premium adjustments, community and state activities beyond those required by the NFIP to: Reduce flood losses, i.e.,
protect public health and safety, reduce damage to buildings and contents, prevent increases in flood damage from new construction, reduce the risk of erosion damage, and protect natural and beneficial floodplain functions;

Facilitate accurate insurance rating; and Promote the awareness of flood insurance.

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FEMA Community Rating System (CRS)
Public Information (Series 300) This series credits programs that advise people about the flood hazard, flood insurance, and ways to reduce flood damage. These activities also provide data needed by insurance agents for accurate flood insurance rating. Mapping and Regulations (Series 400) This series credits programs that provide increased protection to new development. These activities include mapping areas not shown on the FIRM, preserving open space, enforcing higher regulatory standards, and managing stormwater. Flood Damage Reduction (Series 500) This series credits programs for areas in which existing development is at risk. Credit is provided for a comprehensive floodplain management plan, relocating or retrofitting floodprone structures, and maintaining drainage systems. Flood Preparedness (Series 600) This series credits flood warning, levee safety, and dam safety programs.

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FEMA Risk Assessment: 4 Criteria
1. History: 0 1 times in the past 100 years low (L) 2 3 times medium (M) > 4 times high (H) 2. Human vulnerability: consideration of vulnerable groups (old people, handicapped), population density, human dwellings with respect to hazards location and value of property and vital facilities Rating: < 1 % (affected) (L) 110 % (M) > 10 % (H)

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FEMA Risk Assessment: 4 Criteria
3. Maximum hazard (assuming the worst case): area affected: < 5 % (L) 5 25 % M > 25 % (H) 4. Probability The basis for assessment is annual occurrence once every 1,000 years (L) between 1:1,000 and 1:10 (M) 1:10 years: (H)

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Brief notes on risk management via disaster preparedness NB: link to other MSC DREM modules

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Disaster Risk Reduction
over-reliance on relief results in a perpetuation of existing risks and a cycle of recurrent disasters Disaster risk reduction is aimed at tackling the fundamental elements of disaster risk: vulnerability, hazards (or shocks) and exposure (DFID, 2006 p.9)

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Disaster Risk Reduction (1)
Sustainable Institutional Structures and Good Governance
Reform of national disaster management agencies and establishment of stronger co-ordination mechanisms between relevant line ministries Linking community-level experience with national-level policy making Improved environmental management and control mechanisms Efforts to reduce corruption to strengthen building codes and land-use

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Disaster Risk Reduction (2)
Risk Identification, Monitoring, Early Warning and Public Awareness Comprehensive multi-hazard risk, vulnerability and capacity assessments at all levels Management and dissemination of knowledge on risk Effective early warning systems, including for famine, drought, hurricanes and floods Communication and awareness raising about hazard threats

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Disaster Risk Reduction (3)
Technical and Physical Risk Mitigation
Improved design and construction of physical infrastructure, particularly critical infrastructure Improved maintenance and repair of physical infrastructure Well-structured land use, planning and zoning systems Appropriate structural interventions to reduce risk e.g. maintenance of wetlands in flood plains Improved use of climate data to encourage more effective water management, agricultural planning and healthcare

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Disaster Risk Reduction (4)
Building Resilience, Promotion of Innovation, Knowledge and Education
Disaster proofing livelihoods to make them more resilient in disaster prone areas Use of science and technology to develop appropriate livelihoods for populations at risk Promotion of risk awareness through education at all levels Improving information on the likely impacts of climate change

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Disaster Risk Reduction (5)
Risk sharing and Risk Transfer
Use of insurance and re-insurance instruments e.g. crop insurance for farmers Establishment of calamity funds for use in times of crisis Use of safety nets for the most vulnerable e.g. microcredit and cash transfers

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Disaster Risk Reduction (6)
Preparedness, Effective Response and Sustainable Recovery
Community-level disaster preparedness incorporating a focus on safe behaviour and practices Well-resourced and prepared response systems with a focus on national and local capacity Ensuring recovery includes efforts to reduce underlying risk factors including through engagement with decision-makers and the public on future efforts to reduce disaster risk

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UK framework