Urban Transportation Planning -4

Dr. Muhammad Adnan

Cross Classification Models (Trip Generation Stage)

Definition
Category Analysis/Cross Classification It is based on estimating the response (e.g. No. of trips per household for a given purpose) as a function of household attributes. Based on the assumption that trip generation rates are relatively stable over time for certain household stratifications.

Example of cross classification model

Model Specification
Cross classification is based on grouping the households in different strata; for example, a specific cell is based on household size and household income. The trip production rate for that specific cell then is total number of trips in that cell divided by the number of household in that cell.

Categories basis
Choice of categories is based on the notion that trip rate distribution for a particular household type have its standard deviation as minimum as possible.

Advantages of the Method

Cross-classification groupings are independent of the zone system of the study area. No prior assumptions about the relationship are required (i.e. they dont even have to be monotonic, let alone linear) Relationship can differ in form from class to class (e.g. the effect of changes in household size for one or two car-owning households may be different.)

Disadvantage of the method

It does not permit extrapolation beyond its calibration strata. There are no statistical goodness-of-fit measure for the model. It requires large sample sizes (25 household per cell); otherwise cell values will vary in reliability. There is no effective way to choose among variables for classification, or choose best groupings of a given variable; the minimization of st. deviation process requires an extensive trial and error procedure which may be considered infeasible in practical studies. If it is required to increase the number of stratifying variables, it might be necessary to increase the sample enormously.

Attraction Models (Example)

HBW TRIPS

Attraction per Employee

Retail 1.36 Government Services 1.2 Private Services 1.9

Questions (1)

The following table presents the data collected in the last household survey (ten years ago) for three particular zone. Zone 1, 2.0 r/HH, 1.0 W/hh, 50000 MI, 20000 P Zone 2, 3.0 r/HH, 2.0 W/hh, 70000 MI, 60000 P Zone 1, 2.5 r/HH, 2.0 W/hh, 100000 MI, 100000 P Y=0.2 +0.5x1+1.1Z1; R-square=0.78 X1 = Number of workers in the household Z1= dummy variable which is 1 for high income (>70,000) otherwise zero

Faimly structure 1 or less 2 or more

INCOME LOW 0.8 1.2 HIGH 1.0 2.3

If the total number of trips are generated today during peak hour By the three zones are, 8200,24300 And 92500 respectively, which model is Best. Explain your answer

Questions (2)
Given the following data, create a trip generation model using EXCEL to perform linear least square multiple regression. What is wrong with using all "independent" variables at one time? Which independent variable is best? Explain. If you see there is non-linear (y=axb) relationship with a independent variable how you will perform your regression analysis.

Balancing Trip Productions and Attractions