Advance Waiting Line

Theory and Simulation

Modeling
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 2

Supplement Objectives
Be able to:
Describe different types of waiting line systems.
Use statistics-based formulas to estimate waiting
line lengths and waiting times for three different
types of waiting line systems.
Explain the purpose, advantages and
disadvantages, and steps of simulation modeling.
Develop a simple Monte Carlo simulation using
Microsoft Excel.
Develop and analyze a system using SimQuick.
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 3

Alternative Waiting Lines
Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Ticket window at theater,
Multiple-Channel, Single-Phase
Tellers at the bank, windows at post office
Single-Channel, Multiple-Phase
Line at the Laundromat, DMV
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 4

Alternative Waiting Lines
Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Multiple-Channel, Single-Phase
Single-Channel, Multiple-Phase
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 5

Assumptions
Arrivals
At random (Poisson, exponential distributions)
Fixed (appointments, service intervals)
Service times
Variable (exponential, normal distributions)
Fixed (constant service time)
Other
Size of arrival population, priority rules,
balking, reneging
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 6

Poisson Distribution
Probability of n arrivals in T time periods





where = arrival rate



T
n
n
e
n
T
P

=
!
) (
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 7

Waiting Line Formulas
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 8

P
0
= Probability of 0 Units in
Multiple-Channel System
|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
+
(
(

|
.
|

\
|
=

M
M
M n
P
M
M
n
n
!
1
!
1
1
1
0
0
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 9

Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Manual Car Wash Example
Arrival rate = 7.5 cars per hour
Service rate = an average of 10 cars per hour
Utilization = / = 75%
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 10

Single-Channel, Single-Phase
Automated Car Wash Example
Arrival rate = 7.5 cars per hour
Service rate = a constant rate of 10 cars per hour
Utilization = / = 75%
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 11

Comparisons
Manual wash,
single server
Automated wash,
single server
Manual wash,
two servers
Cars
waiting
2.25 1.125 0.1227
Cars in
system
3 1.875 1.517
Time
waiting
18 minutes 9 minutes 1 minute
Time in
System
24 minutes 15 minutes 7 minutes
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 12

Simulation Modeling
Advantages
Off-line evaluation of
new processes or
process changes
Time compression
What-if analysis
Provides variance
estimates in addition
to averages
Disadvantages
Does not provide
optimal solution
More realistic the
more costly and more
difficult to interpret
Still just a simulation
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 13

Monte Carlo Simulation
Maps random numbers to cumulative
probability distributions of variables
Probability distributions can be either
discrete (coin flip, roll of a die) or
continuous (exponential service time or
time between arrivals)
Random numbers 0 to 99 supplied by
computer functions such as =
INT(100*RAND()) in Excel.
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 14

Monte Carlo Simulation
Examples
Coin toss: Random numbers 0 to 49 for
heads, 50 to 99 for tails
Dice throw: Use Excel function
= RANDBETWEEN(1,6) for throws
Service time: Use Excel function
= (avg service time)*ln(RAND()) for
exponential service time
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 15

Building a Simulation Model
Four basic steps
1) Develop a picture of system to be modeled (process
mapping)
2) Identify objects, elements, and probability distributions
that define the system
Objects = items moving through system
Elements = pieces of the system
3) Determine experiment conditions (constraints) and
desired outputs
4) Build and test model, capture the output data
2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply
Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036
Supplement 8S, Slide 16

Simulation Example
(Using single-channel, single-phase waiting line)
1) Process map

2) Time between arrivals (exponential distribution),
service time (exponential distribution), objects =
cars, elements = line and wash station
3) Maximum length for line, time spent in the system
4) Run model for a total of 100 cars entering the car
wash, average the results for waiting time, cars in
line, etc.
SimQuick Simulation

An Excel-based application for simulating
processes that allows use of constraints
(see text example 8S.5)