Professional Documents
Culture Documents
12th European EMME/2 Users Conference Basel, Switzerland (22-23 May 2003)
Presentation Summary
History of PLANET Interfaces Development of PS2002 models Crowding and Assignment procedures Validation Application Appraisal Future Development
Jacobs Consultancy
Jacobs Consultancy UK 275 staff worldwide Transport Planning Business Planning & Strategy Development Planning Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. Turnover USD 5 billion Total Staff 33,000 Consulting, Design, Construction, Operations, Maintenance Client Base: Industrial, Commercial, Government
Development
1990
PLANET 91 PLANET 99
2000
Time
PLANET 91
1991 National Rail Timetable 1991 Demand Geographical area covering former Network South East (NSE) rail services Assignment Model Early attempts at Distribution Model Split (DMS) model No Underground or Bus network Developed by British Rail (NSE)
PLANET 99
1997/98 National Rail timetable 1997/98 Demand Trip distribution based on 1991 data Enhanced Crowding model Elasticity approach for future year forecasts Replaced early attempts at DMS model Based on relative Generalised Time
PLANET MM
1997/98 National Rail timetable 1997/98 Demand Geographical Extension AM and Inter-Peak Time Periods London Underground Network London Bus Network Highway Network
PLANET STRATEGIC
Geographical coverage
Northern and Southern England
PLANET PS2002
2001/2002 National Rail timetable
Railtrack Train Service Database (TSDB)
2001 Demand
CAPRI Ticket Sales data Segmented by Journey purpose
Public Transport
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf33) 9 102 1,377 3,234 18,469 11,767 1,617 35,806 1,748,547
Highway
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) 2 0 1,377 1,857 8,256 5,112
Planet South
IP
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf43)
Planet North
AM
Modes Vehicles
9 100
Modes Vehicles
2 0
Model/Time Period
Planet North South AM
Public Transport
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf33) 9 100 102 1,558 1,377 882 3,234 8,900 18,469 2,042 11,767 1,142 1,617 13,885 35,806 1,151,368 1,748,547
Highway
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) 2 0 1,558 1,377 1,857 13,706 8,256 5,112
IP
Modes Vehicles
9 100 102
Centroids Centroids Regular Nodes Regular Nodes Links Links Links (excl CC) Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Lines Line Segments Transit
Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf43) Total Demand (mf43)
1,377 1,558 3,234 882 18,469 8,900 11,767 2,042 1,617 35,806 1,098
16,215 1,295,119 683,508
Planet North
AM
Modes Vehicles
9 100
Modes Vehicles
2 0
PLANET Interfaces
INPUTS TSDB
Train Service Database
CAPRI
Computer Analysis of Passenger Revenue Information
ORCATS
Operational Research Computer Allocation of Tickets to Services
Demand matrices
Processing CAPRI data
October / November 2001 CAPRI data downloaded on detailed station-station basis Period demand factored to average winter weekday
Annual season ticket demand spread to account for monthly sales patterns Different factors applied to season, full and reduced tickets
Demand matrices
Assigning CAPRI data to zones
PLANET South station-zone distribution outside inner London based on previous PLANET models PLANET South distribution inside inner London based on iterative approach
Start with previous (1991 LATS) distribution of London trip ends from surrounding zones Inner London trip ends factored based on LUL station entries / exits counted Autumn 2001 Surrounding zone trip ends based on CAPRI data
Demand matrices
Segmentation by journey purpose
Full fare Reduced fare Season tickets Business Commuting Leisure / Other
Journey purpose split by ticket type Based on dominant TOC for each flow Derived from National Passenger Survey
40% 34%
16%
2% 91% 6%
Commuting Leisure / Other
19% 65%
YLWU03
U = Up
1st/2nd Character = Service Group; YL = 6730 (Waterloo Hampton Ct / Chessington / Dorking / Guildford
START
calc total demand assignment parameters assignment parameters
POST-ELASTIC ASSIGNMENTS
PRE-ELASTIC ASSIGNMENTS
calc post-ELASTIC demand uncrowded assignment delete old postelastic matrices calculate crowding true calc test gen time false calc base gen time
uncrowded assignment
calculate crowding
true
false
FINISH
assign
assign
assign
Crowding function
For each segment and purpose (train / link combination in four sub-models)
Service type (x5) Journey purpose (x3) Supply profile Train capacity Modelled passenger volume (total over all journey purposes)
Demand profile
Peaked profile: higher frequency and longer / highercapacity train formations during peak period
Commuter services
0.08
0.07
0.06
FACTOR
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
Inter-urban (e.g. Leeds-London) Long-Distance (e.g. Edinburgh-London) Commuter (Fixed Formation) Commuter (Some Train Lengthening) Commuter (Significant Train Lengthening) 07:00 07:10 07:20 07:30 07:40 07:50 08:00 08:10 08:20 08:30 08:40 08:50 09:00 09:10 09:20 09:30 09:40 09:50
0.01
0
TIME PERIOD
0.08
FACTOR
0.06
0.04
0.02
0 07:00 07:10 07:20 07:30 07:40 07:50 08:00 08:10 08:20 08:30 08:40 08:50 09:00 09:10 09:20 09:30 09:40 09:50
TIME PERIOD
Service type
Business
PLANET PDFH
Commuting
PLANET PDFH
80% 100% 140% 100% London Inter-Urban 140% 80% 100% 140% 100% London Suburban 140% 80% 100% 140% 100% 140%
NonLondon
1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4
1.05 1.25 1.7 3.5 4.9 1 1.05 1.2 2.5 2.9 1.07 1.1 1.7 4 5.4
1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4
1 1 1 2.5 2.9 1 1.1 1.5 2.5 2.9 1 1.1 1.5 3.6 4.7
1 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 1 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 1 1.1 1.5 3.6 4.7
AM Peak
GEH
-7.2% 3.0% -0.1% -7.6% 0.0% 1.8% -0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.3% -1.4%
10 4 0 13 0 5 1 0 0 0 1 3
Application of PLANET
Thameslink 2000
PLANET Interfaces
OUTPUTS
ENIF
Thematic maps of time savings Boarding/Alighting at nodes
MapInfo
Thematic maps etc Spatial Analysis
Appraisal Template
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Total
Total_Hours
Hours Uncrowded
Uncrowd_Hours
Crowded
Crowd_Hours
Passenger Boardings
Board
Appraisal for
Project
General Discount Rate Costs and benefits discounted to Growth base year Financial close date Project life (from opening date) Opening date Appraisal date Interpeak service commencement (if applicable) Interpeak service duration (years) First year end First year end - operations Interpeak service duration Operating period duration Closing date 6% 31/12/2001 01/01/2002 01/01/2003 30 years 01/01/2008 31/12/2002 01/01/2008 3 years 31/12/2003 31/12/2008 36 months 360 months 31/12/2037
31/
Growth summary From To Business - peak Commuting - peak Leisure - peak Business- off-peak Commuting - off-peak Leisure - off-peak
01/ 31/
Planet inputs
Full service
Planet Input year
Peak 3 hours Passenger km (Planet Outputs) Do minimum
Anglia Intercity Cross Country GNER Great Western Midland Mainline West Coast Trains C2C Chiltern Connex SE Connex SC Great Eastern 0 30,442 19,507 0 20,709 72,614 46,132 20,790 130,931 153,487 128,669
31/12/2008
Business Option
0 30,464 18,675 0 20,539 72,790 46,131 20,754 104,233 122,403 128,669
Change
0 22 -832 0 -170 176 -1 -36 -26,699 -31,085 0
Anglia Cross GNER Great W Midlan West C C2C Chilter Conne Conne Great E
m PV
Direct Costs Access and Other Capex Net Leasing Costs Net Operating Costs [TOC margin Total Net Costs
-2,033.2
01/01/2003 31/12/2002
Revenues Net to TOCs Net to LUL (& DLR) Total Net Revenues Avoided Costs Station Improvement Costs Total Net Financial Benefits Wider Benefits Net Passenger Time Savings Net Crowding Relief Net non-user benefits Net user accident benefits Construction Disbenefits Punctuality benefits Total Net Wider Benefits Total Net Benefits Benefit to Cost Ratio
824.7 -74.3 Planet forecast years used 31/12/2008 31/12/2012
750.4
58.8
-2,223.9